Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is less than 7 weeks away. There's still a lot of conference games to play, but things are starting to take shape. As of today, what does your conference look like in terms of NCAAT bids?
ACC:
Essentially locks: UVA, UNC, Duke
All three have top 5 RPIs and would basically have to lose out to miss out on a bid.
In really good shape: Clemson, Louisville, Miami
Clemson is currently 6th in the RPI and would be an essential lock had they not just lost Donte Granthem for the season. Such a tough blow for them and hate to see it for the senior. Injuries suck. But with him out, I could at least see the potential for a Clemson tailspin. And the committee would have to evaluate them without Granthem...
Louisville seems to have found something under Padgett and they are playing much better ball. Hard to see them not finishing strong enough to get in.
Miami is here because of a top 20 RPI. They really don't have too much else to hang their hat on--Larrenega hasn't done a great job with this talented bunch. But would the committee really leave out a top 30 RPI team from the ACC? I don't think so.
More likely than not to make it (but lots of work left): FSU
Top 45 RPI, several really good wins, no terrible losses. FSU looks like a classic 9 or 10 seed. Honestly, if the coaches would schedule smarter, the Seminoles would probably be in the next tier up, as they own better wins than Miami. But alas, the committee still really values OOC scheduling and FSU's sucks. If they finish at least 9-9 in ACC play, they should sneak in.
Outside looking in: ND, Syracuse, NCSU, BC, VT
ND would surely be in with Bonzi Colson, but they've now lost 4 straight. If they can find a way to finish at least 8-10 in ACC play, get him back by the ACCT, and then win a couple games with him...I think that would do it. But that's just a guess.
Syracuse has a top 45 RPI, a win over Maryland, and...not much else. They just need wins. Finish 10-8 in ACC play and they will make it, but KenPom currently projects them at 8-10.
NCSU has some good wins (Arizona, Duke, Clemson) but a couple terrible losses (Northern Iowa, UNC-G). If they get to 10-8 in ACC play, maybe, but can they play that consistent? I doubt it.
BC is here because of their win over Duke, but they have virtually no chance unless they find a way to win on the road. The Eagles have one road win this season and it's against Hartford.
VT...I'm really not sure why they are here. No real marquee wins. RPI outside the top 100. Projected to finish 6-12 in the league. But they have talent and people keep telling me Buzz Williams is an excellent coach, so we'll see. They play UNC at home tonight so if they can pull the upset that would be a nice step in the right direction.
Auto bid or bust: GT, Wake, Pitt
The only way these teams will factor in is if they upset teams above them and cause one of their bubbles to burst.
ACC:
Essentially locks: UVA, UNC, Duke
All three have top 5 RPIs and would basically have to lose out to miss out on a bid.
In really good shape: Clemson, Louisville, Miami
Clemson is currently 6th in the RPI and would be an essential lock had they not just lost Donte Granthem for the season. Such a tough blow for them and hate to see it for the senior. Injuries suck. But with him out, I could at least see the potential for a Clemson tailspin. And the committee would have to evaluate them without Granthem...
Louisville seems to have found something under Padgett and they are playing much better ball. Hard to see them not finishing strong enough to get in.
Miami is here because of a top 20 RPI. They really don't have too much else to hang their hat on--Larrenega hasn't done a great job with this talented bunch. But would the committee really leave out a top 30 RPI team from the ACC? I don't think so.
More likely than not to make it (but lots of work left): FSU
Top 45 RPI, several really good wins, no terrible losses. FSU looks like a classic 9 or 10 seed. Honestly, if the coaches would schedule smarter, the Seminoles would probably be in the next tier up, as they own better wins than Miami. But alas, the committee still really values OOC scheduling and FSU's sucks. If they finish at least 9-9 in ACC play, they should sneak in.
Outside looking in: ND, Syracuse, NCSU, BC, VT
ND would surely be in with Bonzi Colson, but they've now lost 4 straight. If they can find a way to finish at least 8-10 in ACC play, get him back by the ACCT, and then win a couple games with him...I think that would do it. But that's just a guess.
Syracuse has a top 45 RPI, a win over Maryland, and...not much else. They just need wins. Finish 10-8 in ACC play and they will make it, but KenPom currently projects them at 8-10.
NCSU has some good wins (Arizona, Duke, Clemson) but a couple terrible losses (Northern Iowa, UNC-G). If they get to 10-8 in ACC play, maybe, but can they play that consistent? I doubt it.
BC is here because of their win over Duke, but they have virtually no chance unless they find a way to win on the road. The Eagles have one road win this season and it's against Hartford.
VT...I'm really not sure why they are here. No real marquee wins. RPI outside the top 100. Projected to finish 6-12 in the league. But they have talent and people keep telling me Buzz Williams is an excellent coach, so we'll see. They play UNC at home tonight so if they can pull the upset that would be a nice step in the right direction.
Auto bid or bust: GT, Wake, Pitt
The only way these teams will factor in is if they upset teams above them and cause one of their bubbles to burst.