NCAA Tourney outlook for your conference's teams

[GE Nole]

Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is less than 7 weeks away. There's still a lot of conference games to play, but things are starting to take shape. As of today, what does your conference look like in terms of NCAAT bids?

ACC:

Essentially locks: UVA, UNC, Duke
All three have top 5 RPIs and would basically have to lose out to miss out on a bid.

In really good shape: Clemson, Louisville, Miami
Clemson is currently 6th in the RPI and would be an essential lock had they not just lost Donte Granthem for the season. Such a tough blow for them and hate to see it for the senior. Injuries suck. But with him out, I could at least see the potential for a Clemson tailspin. And the committee would have to evaluate them without Granthem...

Louisville seems to have found something under Padgett and they are playing much better ball. Hard to see them not finishing strong enough to get in.

Miami is here because of a top 20 RPI. They really don't have too much else to hang their hat on--Larrenega hasn't done a great job with this talented bunch. But would the committee really leave out a top 30 RPI team from the ACC? I don't think so.

More likely than not to make it (but lots of work left): FSU
Top 45 RPI, several really good wins, no terrible losses. FSU looks like a classic 9 or 10 seed. Honestly, if the coaches would schedule smarter, the Seminoles would probably be in the next tier up, as they own better wins than Miami. But alas, the committee still really values OOC scheduling and FSU's sucks. If they finish at least 9-9 in ACC play, they should sneak in.

Outside looking in: ND, Syracuse, NCSU, BC, VT
ND would surely be in with Bonzi Colson, but they've now lost 4 straight. If they can find a way to finish at least 8-10 in ACC play, get him back by the ACCT, and then win a couple games with him...I think that would do it. But that's just a guess.

Syracuse has a top 45 RPI, a win over Maryland, and...not much else. They just need wins. Finish 10-8 in ACC play and they will make it, but KenPom currently projects them at 8-10.

NCSU has some good wins (Arizona, Duke, Clemson) but a couple terrible losses (Northern Iowa, UNC-G). If they get to 10-8 in ACC play, maybe, but can they play that consistent? I doubt it.

BC is here because of their win over Duke, but they have virtually no chance unless they find a way to win on the road. The Eagles have one road win this season and it's against Hartford.

VT...I'm really not sure why they are here. No real marquee wins. RPI outside the top 100. Projected to finish 6-12 in the league. But they have talent and people keep telling me Buzz Williams is an excellent coach, so we'll see. They play UNC at home tonight so if they can pull the upset that would be a nice step in the right direction.

Auto bid or bust: GT, Wake, Pitt
The only way these teams will factor in is if they upset teams above them and cause one of their bubbles to burst.

 

[toonces11]

Big 12: Kansas, WVU, Tech, OU, KSU, TCU

UT and Baylor need a huge run

 

[anon_0astpxev9h4gk]

Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is less than 7 weeks away. There's still a lot of conference games to play, but things are starting to take shape. As of today, what does your conference look like in terms of NCAAT bids?

ACC:

Essentially locks: UVA, UNC, Duke
All three have top 5 RPIs and would basically have to lose out to miss out on a bid.

In really good shape: Clemson, Louisville, Miami
Clemson is currently 6th in the RPI and would be an essential lock had they not just lost Donte Granthem for the season. Such a tough blow for them and hate to see it for the senior. Injuries suck. But with him out, I could at least see the potential for a Clemson tailspin. And the committee would have to evaluate them without Granthem...

Louisville seems to have found something under Padgett and they are playing much better ball. Hard to see them not finishing strong enough to get in.

Miami is here because of a top 20 RPI. They really don't have too much else to hang their hat on--Larrenega hasn't done a great job with this talented bunch. But would the committee really leave out a top 30 RPI team from the ACC? I don't think so.

More likely than not to make it (but lots of work left): FSU
Top 45 RPI, several really good wins, no terrible losses. FSU looks like a classic 9 or 10 seed. Honestly, if the coaches would schedule smarter, the Seminoles would probably be in the next tier up, as they own better wins than Miami. But alas, the committee still really values OOC scheduling and FSU's sucks. If they finish at least 9-9 in ACC play, they should sneak in.

Outside looking in: ND, Syracuse, NCSU, BC, VT
ND would surely be in with Bonzi Colson, but they've now lost 4 straight. If they can find a way to finish at least 8-10 in ACC play, get him back by the ACCT, and then win a couple games with him...I think that would do it. But that's just a guess.

Syracuse has a top 45 RPI, a win over Maryland, and...not much else. They just need wins. Finish 10-8 in ACC play and they will make it, but KenPom currently projects them at 8-10.

NCSU has some good wins (Arizona, Duke, Clemson) but a couple terrible losses (Northern Iowa, UNC-G). If they get to 10-8 in ACC play, maybe, but can they play that consistent? I doubt it.

BC is here because of their win over Duke, but they have virtually no chance unless they find a way to win on the road. The Eagles have one road win this season and it's against Hartford.

VT...I'm really not sure why they are here. No real marquee wins. RPI outside the top 100. Projected to finish 6-12 in the league. But they have talent and people keep telling me Buzz Williams is an excellent coach, so we'll see. They play UNC at home tonight so if they can pull the upset that would be a nice step in the right direction.

Auto bid or bust: GT, Wake, Pitt
The only way these teams will factor in is if they upset teams above them and cause one of their bubbles to burst.

Agreed, I see UVA, Duke, and UNC all being obvious locks, Duke and UNC most likely grabbing 1/2 seeds. Heels I could see being anywhere from a 2-5 seed depending on how the rest of conference play works out. We should get in, but the remainder of our schedule is somewhat brutal, as is everyone's in the ACC, but if we finish the season strong and capitalize on our home games, and snag a couple road wins, I could see us potentially earning a 4-6 seed. I think Clemson and Miami get 5-7 seeds, and FSU will make the tourney..probably 6-8 seed. A lot of games left to be played, so it's really a crapshoot in our conference.

 

[GE Nole]

Big 12: Kansas, WVU, Tech, OU, KSU, TCU

UT and Baylor need a huge run

You really think only 6 from Big 12 make it in?

 

[FlGator22]

SEC could get 8 teams in with none of them being higher than a 4-seed, pretty crazy.

Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee all feel pretty solidly in barring a collapse.

Then you have a large group of Arkansas, Texas A&M, Alabama, Mizzou, South Carolina and Georgia that all range from "pretty good chance" to get in to "needs a solid finish" to get in. Miss State would have a shot if they finished REALLY good.

 

[toonces11]

You really think only 6 from Big 12 make it in?

I like to undershoot instead of being a conference honk.

 

[GE Nole]

SEC could get 8 teams in with none of them being higher than a 4-seed, pretty crazy.

Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee all feel pretty solidly in barring a collapse.

Then you have a large group of Arkansas, Texas A&M, Alabama, Mizzou, South Carolina and Georgia that all range from "pretty good chance" to get in to "needs a solid finish" to get in. Miss State would have a shot if they finished REALLY good.

I think 8 would really be pushing it. 6 or 7 seems likely.

Kentucky is sort of like Miami. They basically have one noteworthy win, but is the committee really going to leave out a top 25 RPI team? I seriously doubt it.

 

[FlGator22]

I think 8 would really be pushing it. 6 or 7 seems likely.

Kentucky is sort of like Miami. They basically have one noteworthy win, but is the committee really going to leave out a top 25 RPI team? I seriously doubt it.

Yea, but they have like 8 more shots at top 50 wins. If they were to go maybe 2-6 in those games they could be in trouble.

 

[xWVU2010x]

The entire Big XII is still alive for a bid, its not out of the realm of possiiblity that all 10 play in the NCAA/NIT, has that ever happened before?

 

[saliva]

The entire Big XII is still alive for a bid, its not out of the realm of possiiblity that all 10 play in the NCAA/NIT, has that ever happened before?

Isn't Iowa State pretty terrible?

 

[xWVU2010x]

Isn't Iowa State pretty terrible?

Still a top 100 RPI team that will have plenty of chances for quality wins.

 

[GE Nole]

The entire Big XII is still alive for a bid, its not out of the realm of possiiblity that all 10 play in the NCAA/NIT, has that ever happened before?

Yeah, that is out of the realm of possibility. If one team wins, another team must lose. So if Iowa State and Baylor win 8 or 9 out of their last 10 games (what it would take to get into the Dance), then teams like Okie State and Texas would have to pick up more losses.

 

[Wolves198921]

SEC locks
Florida, Tennessee, Auburn

Bubble
A&M, UGA, Missouri, Alabama, UK

I think A&M and one of UGA, Missouri, and Bama get in. UK isn’t going to make it. They are too young, trending downwards, and have a lot of losses a head on that schedule.

 

[xWVU2010x]

Yeah, that is out of the realm of possibility. If one team wins, another team must lose. So if Iowa State and Baylor win 8 or 9 out of their last 10 games (what it would take to get into the Dance), then teams like Okie State and Texas would have to pick up more losses.

You do know I said NCAA/NIT correct? Clearly all 10 cannot make the NCAA even with #10 getting a miracle autobid. If ISU/Baylor start going on a tear they would pull teams down from the NCAA into the NIT. Not impossible for that to happen if most of the top seeded low majors win their conference tournaments.

 

[GE Nole]

You do know I said NCAA/NIT correct? Clearly all 10 cannot make the NCAA even with #10 getting a miracle autobid. If ISU/Baylor start going on a tear they would pull teams down from the NCAA into the NIT. Not impossible for that to happen if most of the top seeded low majors win their conference tournaments.

My bad, I read right over the NIT part.

 

[stakesarehigh]

BIG is basically down to

Locks
MSU/Purdue

Near locks
Michigan/OSU


work to do
Maryland
Nebraska

Hail Mary
Indiana

 

[GE Nole]

BIG is basically down to

Locks
MSU/Purdue

Near locks
Michigan/OSU


work to do
Maryland
Nebraska

Hail Mary
Indiana

Nebraska? Do they really have a chance?

 

[Oznaminn]

After watching Nebraska last night, I feel they will get a bid and play a first round game in Dayton. Purdue, Michigan St., tOSU, TSUN, and Maryland will also get bids. Only MSU and Purdue will make it too the sweet 16.

 

[stakesarehigh]

Nebraska? Do they really have a chance?

Their schedule is awful

Next nine none against top 4 BIG

 

[GE Nole]

Their schedule is awful

Next nine none against top 4 BIG

Isn't that bad news for a team with an RPI of 70 and an OOC SOS sub-250? Seems like they need all the quality wins they can get.

 

[stakesarehigh]

Isn't that bad news for a team with an RPI of 70 and an OOC SOS sub-250? Seems like they need all the quality wins they can get.

To me it all depends how soft the bubble is

If they go 7-2 they have a shot.... If they go 5-4 they don't.

 

[GE Nole]

To me it all depends how soft the bubble is

If they go 7-2 they have a shot.... If they go 5-4 they don't.

Fair enough. But it doesn't seem terribly soft right now.

 

[ChiTownSean]

I'd much rather see an at large bid go to a mid major team than Nebraska with that resume. Example, either Western Kentucky or mtsu won't have an auto bid

 

[JustCallMeDad]

Big 12: Kansas, WVU, Tech, OU, KSU, TCU

UT and Baylor need a huge run

Texas is 13-7 with a 42 RPI
With 4 of the next 6 at home and play in Lubbock and Ft Worth on the road.
Texas could easily be 5-1 in the next 6.

A huge run....
Would actually mean Texas would be a 5.

They need at least a 6 now because of Wichita losing.
With Wichita as a 2 they could have been a 7 and still be put in Dallas.
Now they need to be a 6 more likely a 5 to play in Dallas.

Their problem is on the road more than anything else.'
At home they are a great team. If they can find someway to grow up they could make a long run not to be in the tournament but In the tournament because they will have home court advantage in the first 2 games.

 

[stakesarehigh]

I'd much rather see an at large bid go to a mid major team than Nebraska with that resume. Example, either Western Kentucky or mtsu won't have an auto bid

I certainly don't have a strong opinion either way.

Just answering the OP lol

 

[ChiTownSean]

I certainly don't have a strong opinion either way.

Just answering the OP lol

Same, I think you're right though

 

[saliva]

AAC:

Locks: Cincinnati

Near Locks: Wichita State

Work to do: SMU, Houston

SMU has a tough road ahead as they just lost their 2nd best player (Jarrey Foster) for the year. They do have some great wins though (@ WSU, Arizona neutral). As long as they avoid bad losses I think they'll get a bid. Same with Houston, who seems to improve on a weekly basis.

 

[NovaNation1188]

Big East: 70%

Locks:
Nova, Xavier

Near Lock:
Seton Hall

Should be In:
Creighton
Butler

Would make it if season ended today but need to keep the status quo
Providence - Next 2 games @Marq and @SHU. Need to go at least 1-1 to stay on the right side of bubble
Marquette (can make a huge case this weekend @home versus Nova)

 

[stakesarehigh]

Fair enough. But it doesn't seem terribly soft right now.

Looking better for the Huskers

 

[GE Nole]

Looking better for the Huskers

Zero Q1 wins...that's gonna be a huge black eye.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Lunardi said tonight the SEC should set a record with 8 teams and Auburn deserves the first #2 despite the weak OOC.

 

[mtsuhog85]

SEC locks
Florida, Tennessee, Auburn

Bubble
A&M, UGA, Missouri, Alabama, UK

I think A&M and one of UGA, Missouri, and Bama get in. UK isn’t going to make it. They are too young, trending downwards, and have a lot of losses a head on that schedule.

Ugh? Arkansas out?

 

[stakesarehigh]

Zero Q1 wins...that's gonna be a huge black eye.

I agree but bubble isn't exactly ironclad. Lots of eight loss teams....that have played three fewer games.

 

[GE Nole]

I agree but bubble isn't exactly ironclad. Lots of eight loss teams....that have played three fewer games.

It’s just hard to believe a team should be in the NCAAT when they have maybe 1 win over an NCAAT team all year.

 

[GE Nole]

Lunardi said tonight the SEC should set a record with 8 teams and Auburn deserves the first #2 despite the weak OOC.

They have done a fantastic job of manipulating the RPI. I wish FSU would. Tip of the cap, I guess.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

They have done a fantastic job of manipulating the RPI. I wish FSU would. Tip of the cap, I guess.

Ever since the new SEC commissioner made basketball a point of emphasis, they've brought better coaches, had more top 100 recruits and scheduled much better. It's clearly starting to pay off.

 

[GE Nole]

Ever since the new SEC commissioner made basketball a point of emphasis, they've brought better coaches, had more top 100 recruits and scheduled much better. It's clearly starting to pay off.

Agreed. Amazing how things can improve when you prioritize them.

 

[MileHighSpartan]

Probably only 4-5 teams from B1G, but I think one of MSU, OSU, and Purdue will make the F4

 

[IUfanBorden]

I'd much rather see an at large bid go to a mid major team than Nebraska with that resume. Example, either Western Kentucky or mtsu won't have an auto bid

Check out St. Mary's resume. Projected 6 seed. Their resume is no better than Nebraska's. Five of their 12 conference wins are against teams with an RPI of 240 or worse. Nebraska's worst is vs Rutgers(206).

System is a joke.

 

[IUfanBorden]

They have done a fantastic job of manipulating the RPI. I wish FSU would. Tip of the cap, I guess.

Extremely good job. The SEC is much better. But I';m not sure about 8 teams in the NCAAT better. Look at Auburn. Best wins are Middle Tenn State, Arkansas, UT and Missouri. Only Tenn is currently in the Top 25. They have 7 wins vs RPI 150+ teams. And there is Miss. State. They have 17 wins on the year. Half of those are versus Sub 150 teams. FOur are versus sub 300 teams. Yet their RPI is 54.

That's a joke.

SEC is pretty darn good this year. But not that good. AS you said---They;ve done one heck of a job manipulating the RPI.