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Top 10 most likely to win it all

There's a difference between analytics and ranking the best resumes. Analytics is there more to forecast probabilities. Purdue's 14 losses can't simply be forgiven. You have to earn wins. Look at bracketmatrix. It's a composite of close to 100 bracketologists. Purdue is still on the bubble, but they're on the outside looking in. As of right now, they wouldn't make the tournament. They look good on the analytic side of things because they've pummeled the likes of Michigan State, Iowa, and Virginia. They also have a lot of losses to account for.

On the opposite side of the analytics, is a team like Auburn. They're only ranked 38th by KenPom. They're 13-0 in single-digit games, including 5 overtime wins and a buzzer-beater in regulation. Those wins have a lot of merit, and they deserved to be seeded accordingly. As of right now, it looks like a 4 or 5 seed. They won't be downgraded to a 10 seed simply because of the computer models. They earned those wins, and the committee obviously values wins more than efficiency margins.
I'm glad the committee uses a lot of tools to make determinations, as none are perfect. Some are highly flawed though. I was reading the home board and saw that UK rose from 51 to 41 in adjusted defensive efficiency after beating Florida. I thought, wow, that's odd.... they have played 27 games and that one game made them rise that high. Then I read that recent games are weighted higher. Ha, what a joke!
 
Wow. Iowa as an 8 seed would be rough. Kind of like Villanova getting Wisconsin in the second round in 2017.
I think you could do a much better job than some of those brackets. I clicked a few of them and they go straight to blogs like that.

OT, but where do we think this place ranks in terms of most visited places for people who follow CBB? Top 100? Top 500? Outside of ESPN or any other major news outlet I can't really think of a place that's necessarily a "must visit" type of place to talk about and read about what's going on in the sport. This place has a pretty good following and between the football/basketball boards there's usually around 5000 people on at any given time. Makes you wonder who might be lurking out there.
 
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The Big 10 probably deserves to put a lot of teams in the field, but I’m not sure that being deep with decent teams is something to be really impressed by. No one was overly impressed when the Big 12 was solid 1-10 a few years back, because they knew that only 1 or 2 had a good chance of going anywhere.

I’m not sure the Big 10 has any teams with a great shot to make the final four. Although I suppose you have to give them decent odds just based on the fact that they’ll have half the damn field.

This. Very reminiscent of the Big 12 of 5 years or so ago.
 
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I think you could do a much better job than some of those brackets. I clicked a few of them and they go straight to blogs like that.

OT, but where do we think this place ranks in terms of most visited places for people who follow CBB? Top 100? Top 500? Outside of ESPN or any other major news outlet I can't really think of a place that's necessarily a "must visit" type of place to talk about and read about what's going on in the sport. This place has a pretty good following and between the football/basketball boards there's usually around 5000 people on at any given time. Makes you wonder who might be lurking out there.

Hard to imagine some friends/family of players and recruits not lurking.

I kind of want to post a bracket the day before its unveiled. I mostly just want to see if I can beat Lunardi. He has the biggest platform, but is by no means the best bracketologist. I love how he says something along the lines of, "Last year, I correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams in the tournament." Oh really? 66 of 68? So, you're giving yourself credit for the 32 at-large bids? And a good 25-30 of the at-large picks are gimmes. So it's more like getting 8 out of 10.
 
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Hard to imagine some friends/family of players and recruits not lurking.
Oh, no doubt. I was more curious to know if any big names at ESPN have ever lurked here. Scott Van Pelt supposedly dropped a mainboard inside joke 10ish years ago. I don't know if that's true or not but it gets referenced from time to time.

I'm just waiting for the day when somebody at ESPN DM's you and offers you a job. Lol. We'll be so proud of you.
 
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Oh, no doubt. I was more curious to know if any big names at ESPN have ever lurked here. Scott Van Pelt supposedly dropped a mainboard inside joke 10ish years ago. I don't know if that's true or not but it gets referenced from time to time.

I'm just waiting for the day when somebody at ESPN DM's you and offers you a job. Lol. We'll be so proud of you.

lol that would be funny.
 
I have a feeling we will see a lot of these top teams fall at least once more in the regular season. Kansas still has to go to Tech and Baylor still has tech and @ WVU.
 
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1 Kansas
2 Baylor
3 Duke
4 Gonzaga
5 Florida State
6 Louisville
7 Villanova
8 Kentucky
9 Virginia
10 Oregon
 
The Big 10 probably deserves to put a lot of teams in the field, but I’m not sure that being deep with decent teams is something to be really impressed by. No one was overly impressed when the Big 12 was solid 1-10 a few years back, because they knew that only 1 or 2 had a good chance of going anywhere.

I’m not sure the Big 10 has any teams with a great shot to make the final four. Although I suppose you have to give them decent odds just based on the fact that they’ll have half the damn field.
That was a loaded backhanded compliment if I've ever seen one. Well done.


And we accept your compliment of Iowa > Kansas, as well. :)


P.S. Get a f***ing wrestling program, ya bums.
 
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My 10 in order:
Baylor
Kansas
FSU
Gonzaga
Duke
Louisville
Seton Hall
Maryland
Kentucky
SDSU
 
1 Kansas
2 Baylor
3 Duke
4 Gonzaga
5 Florida State
6 Louisville
7 Villanova
8 Kentucky
9 Virginia
10 Oregon

My 10 in order:
Baylor
Kansas
FSU
Gonzaga
Duke
Louisville
Seton Hall
Maryland
Kentucky
SDSU

1. Kansas
2. Baylor
3. Gonzaga
4. Duke
5. Kentucky
6. Louisville
7. FSU
8. Maryland
9. SDSU
10. Seton Hall

Here's mine:

1) Kansas
2) Baylor
3) Duke
4) Zags
5) Seton Hall
6) Creighton
7) Maryland
8) Michigan
9) Texas Tech
10) Villanova

1) yours truly
2) Baylor
3) Louisville
4) Duke
5) Zags
6) Maryland
7) Kentucky
8) Sparty
9) Nova
10) auburn

Obi Toppin be like...

giphy.gif


For reals, though. Only team in college basketball not to lose a game in regulation.
 
Obi Toppin be like...

giphy.gif


For reals, though. Only team in college basketball not to lose a game in regulation.

They're 4-2 in Quad 1 Games. And both of those losses were in overtime. Don't get me wrong, they're not the favorites. But if we're listing the 10 schools most likely to win it all, I think they have to be in there.
 
They don’t have the tourney experience imo.

it’s been over 30 years since a team won the title without the head coach having been to at least the E8 already or having a roster loaded with players that already had rings(UConn 2014, UK 98)
 
1.Kansas
2.Baylor
3.Zags
4.Louisville
5.Dayton
6.Florida State
7. Maryland
8.Creighton
9. Seton Hall
10. Duke or Kentucky..
 
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I’d love to agree with you on this and troll mossy, but considering how weak the field is this year, I could see them making it to the s16 or elite 8, based solely on their defense.
214th ranked in Adjusted Offense. I mean of course they could make a run with their great defense and make some timely shots, but it’s a lol worthy take.
 
Pick 10?
Kansas (current wide favorite imo)
Baylor
Gonzaga
Duke
Kansas
Dayton
Florida State
San Diego State
Maryland
Kentucky
 
214th ranked in Adjusted Offense. I mean of course they could make a run with their great defense and make some timely shots, but it’s a lol worthy take.

i laughed a little as I typed it tbh. I was scrambling to find 10 teams. I really think it will come from 1 of the 5 of Duke, UL, Kansas, Baylor and Gonzaga
 
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I'm glad the committee uses a lot of tools to make determinations, as none are perfect. Some are highly flawed though. I was reading the home board and saw that UK rose from 51 to 41 in adjusted defensive efficiency after beating Florida. I thought, wow, that's odd.... they have played 27 games and that one game made them rise that high. Then I read that recent games are weighted higher. Ha, what a joke!

Your position is that recent games should be given the same weight as early season games? Literally the first time I've ever seen that take. I think I now have KenPom bingo!
 
lol what?

I’d love to agree with you on this and troll mossy, but considering how weak the field is this year, I could see them making it to the s16 or elite 8, based solely on their defense.

214th ranked in Adjusted Offense. I mean of course they could make a run with their great defense and make some timely shots, but it’s a lol worthy take.

Very true, plus **** Virginia.

i laughed a little as I typed it tbh. I was scrambling to find 10 teams. I really think it will come from 1 of the 5 of Duke, UL, Kansas, Baylor and Gonzaga

giphy.gif
 
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I don't know who that is, but I am guessing another analytics dork that has never seen a basketball game. Livers is good and Michigan is decent, but the suckfest for the Big 10 this year is ridiculous. A bunch of mediocre teams beating up on each other, yet most seem to think their entire conference deserves to dance. Can't wait to watch the metrics geeks get exposed in the tourney, where games are won on the court and not on a computer.
Well, lets see.....

Indiana blasted #6 Florida State...80-64
Michigan smashed #3 Gonzaga, 82-64...And #10 Creighton..79-69
MSU beat #13 Seton Hall...
OSU beat #12 Villanova by 25, 76-51....Oh, and #8 Kentucky.
Iowa beat #22 Texas Tech....

For Christ sake----14-14 Purdue beat Virginia by 29....

So, an 8-8 Big 10 team beat the #6 in the nation, by 16...

Another 8-8 team beat Villanova by 25, and your Cats...

A 9-7 team beat Gonazaga by 18.....

Pretty sure none of the above where computer simulated.

Big 10 is pretty solid.
 
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You'll never learn......
  • November/December 2018- I told you the CATS would win at the Chicken Bucket by Double digits... they won by 13.
  • November/December 2018- I told you the CATS would destroy U6 on the football field. They did.... 56-10
  • Summer to December 2019- I told you the CATS would beat U6 by at least 8. Final score: 78-70
  • November/December 2019- I told you the CATS would destroy U6 on the football field again. They did, 45-13.
.....I'm not the only one talking more sanctions coming for U6. One of your own, Jerry Eaves.... says the same thing daily.
 
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You'll never learn......
  • November/December 2018- I told you the CATS would win at the Chicken Bucket by Double digits... they won by 13.
  • November/December 2018- I told you the CATS would destroy U6 on the football field. They did.... 56-10
  • Summer to December 2019- I told you the CATS would beat U6 by at least 8. Final score: 78-70
  • November/December 2019- I told you the CATS would destroy U6 on the football field again. They did, 45-13.
.....I'm not the only one talking more sanctions coming for U6. One of your own, Jerry Eaves.... says the same thing daily.
More drivel. Either gonna be Kansas, U of L, Baylor, or Dayton. Kentucky ain’t winning shit this year. Enjoy your super bowl in December little guy!

also jerry eaves ain’t one of us, he’s practically a blew neck, go ahead and embrace that old fayghut.
 
More drivel. Either gonna be Kansas, U of L, Baylor, or Dayton. Kentucky ain’t winning shit this year. Enjoy your super bowl in December little guy!

also jerry eaves ain’t one of us, he’s practically a blew neck, go ahead and embrace that old fayghut.
You know, it would make me chuckle if Louisville won this year. He likes to brag so much about how Cal dominates them but the tournament results would show that they're the better program since 2010.
 
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