Top 10 most likely to win it all

Discussion in 'College Basketball Board' started by RockChalk82, Feb 24, 2020.

  1. RockChalk82

    RockChalk82 Well-Known Member
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  2. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    FSU should have better odds than that, IMO. Also, not sure why MSU has top 10 odds, they suck.
     
  3. EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset Well-Known Member
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    Because Izzo.....
     
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  4. Big_Blue79

    Big_Blue79 Well-Known Member
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    Hmm... Izzo's MO is that he eventually crumbles against elite competition, but since there are few (if any) of those teams this year, maybe he can win one for the B1G.
     
  5. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    Exactly, Izzo and his stellar post-season results. Laughing
     
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  6. Ipartiedwithhopgood

    Ipartiedwithhopgood Well-Known Member
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    I'm giving a pass to the oddsmakers this year, pulling a top 10 to win it all list with a straight face is challenging.

    That said, I'd have to place Dayton in there. FSU also. Call me crazy (Hop, you crazy!) but I might keep an eye on tOSU also and get them in there.
     
  7. MGC_07

    MGC_07 Well-Known Member
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    Eh, we could pull a 15’-esque run or lose in the First round. Neither would surprise me. No way we win the title though
     
  8. RockChalk82

    RockChalk82 Well-Known Member
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    Ya to me a top 5 was easy. A top 10 got hard
     
  9. BasketBallJunkie-UK

    BasketBallJunkie-UK Well-Known Member
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    I think 1 & 2 have separated somewhat from the pack with the next 5 a tossup...
     
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  10. EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset Well-Known Member
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    Yes, please do go on and rip Tom Izzo for being overrated. :)

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset Well-Known Member
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    Just add Iowa at #1...........and you can stop after that. SmokinSmile
     
  12. JimboBBN

    JimboBBN Well-Known Member
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    Don’t get the Duke love.
     
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  13. jhmossy

    jhmossy Well-Known Member
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    UVA +7000?

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    Don't act like you're gonna place a wager on such a long shot. We all know Jews don't have it in their blood to throw money away.
     
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  15. bignish

    bignish Well-Known Member
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    The Big East gets no love on this forum, how in the world does Creighton or Seton Hall not make anyone's top 10 to win it all?

    Here's mine:

    1) Kansas
    2) Baylor
    3) Duke
    4) Zags
    5) Seton Hall
    6) Creighton
    7) Maryland
    8) Michigan
    9) Texas Tech
    10) Villanova

    I don't think its as wide open as people are saying either. I'd be pretty shocked if KU, Baylor, Duke, Gonzaga or Seton Hall didn't end up winning it all. I'd take those 5 vs the field and feel good about it.

    Most of the sleepers to win it all are in the Big East with their phenomenal guard play.
     
  16. bignish

    bignish Well-Known Member
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    Elite PG, All-American big man, top 10 offense, top 10 defense, deep roster, HOF Coach

    Why not Duke?
     
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  17. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    Michigan? LOLZ. Go back to India, Nish.
     
  18. bignish

    bignish Well-Known Member
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  19. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    I don't know who that is, but I am guessing another analytics dork that has never seen a basketball game. Livers is good and Michigan is decent, but the suckfest for the Big 10 this year is ridiculous. A bunch of mediocre teams beating up on each other, yet most seem to think their entire conference deserves to dance. Can't wait to watch the metrics geeks get exposed in the tourney, where games are won on the court and not on a computer.
     
  20. JimboBBN

    JimboBBN Well-Known Member
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    You all just got destroyed by NC State. Isn’t your first bad loss of the year, either. Not saying you all can’t win it, but there are other teams that look better than Duke
     
  21. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
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    A lot of people are going to dismiss San Diego St after their loss, but that’s a solid, balanced team. They should be top 10, along with Dayton.
     
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  22. bignish

    bignish Well-Known Member
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    Why does it matter if they've ever seen a basketball game or not? These are all schedule-adjusted efficiency based rankings based on available data.

    You seem to think there's some sort of implicit bias that's being inputted in the data set or something.

    You're saying that the Big 10 are a bunch of mediocre teams beating up on each other but what does that make the SEC? UK is inconsistent, LSU can't guard a soul and Auburn is completely 3 ball reliant. The eye test doesn't show me that these teams should be favored over Maryland on a neutral court. Do you disagree?
     
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  23. bignish

    bignish Well-Known Member
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    NC State is still a Quad 1 loss and the Wolfpack are a solid squad who always seems to have Duke's number at home.

    I don't think Duke is some sort of juggernaut or something and think Baylor and KU are clearly better but they're in the conversation just because the field is so weak and they fit the bill beyond the obvious 2 title favorites.
     
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  24. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    There is absolutely no combination of metrics that can rank quality of competition, it's impossible. It just isn't something that can be mathematically calculated, no matter how many factors you try to associate with it. That's one major reason you have Dayton sitting there NET 4 with their best win being St. Mary's (current NET 32). Laughing I said the Big 10 is grossly overrated, I never said the SEC didn't suck. Are you one of those guys that thinks the Big 10 deserves to get 11 teams in the tournament? What will you say when 8 of them get bounced in the first weekend?
     
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  25. JimboBBN

    JimboBBN Well-Known Member
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    Meh. I guess. I wouldn’t be scared of Duke in the tournament
     
  26. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
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    The Big 10 probably deserves to put a lot of teams in the field, but I’m not sure that being deep with decent teams is something to be really impressed by. No one was overly impressed when the Big 12 was solid 1-10 a few years back, because they knew that only 1 or 2 had a good chance of going anywhere.

    I’m not sure the Big 10 has any teams with a great shot to make the final four. Although I suppose you have to give them decent odds just based on the fact that they’ll have half the damn field.
     
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  27. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    Carey is a load, nobody else is all that impressive. But, that's college basketball as a whole this year.
     
  28. The Reindeer Terp

    The Reindeer Terp Well-Known Member
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    And what will you say when they don’t? Who knows what will happen. The BIG is not as good as last year but deeper. With so many teams in odds are that they will lose a few first weekend. I really don’t care as long as my team wins. Conf honking is boring as hell. Now with all the analytics it is beyond annoying. Stats do not score points or play defense. Nobody knows what will happen.
     
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  29. bignish

    bignish Well-Known Member
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    I'm not saying that the Big 10 has any title contenders, just that they're a deep conference with 10+ NCAAT field worthy squads.

    We both agree that college basketball is way down this year and they need to put 68 teams in the field somehow, so why not 10 teams from the deepest conference in college basketball?

    I'd be shocked if only 1 or 2 Big 10 teams made the Sweet 16 though. UM, MSU, Ohio State and Maryland are all capable of making fairly deep runs this year.
     
  30. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    My top 10 picks:

    1. Kansas
    2. Baylor
    3. Maryland
    4. Gonzaga
    5. Dayton
    6. Louisville
    7. Duke
    8. Kentucky
    9. San Diego State
    10. Michigan State
     
  31. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    3 of our 4 losses are Quad 1 games. The other loss, was to a team that is 24-3. Obviously not top 25 losses, but we're not talking about horrific losses either.
     
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  32. JimboBBN

    JimboBBN Well-Known Member
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    Sure. Wasn’t a shot at Duke either. Maybe it really does have a lot to do with how bad the rest of the field is. Duke will probably knock Kentucky out now lol
     
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  33. Quavarius

    Quavarius Well-Known Member
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    Which is why we remain high in the NET rankings (6th I think).
     
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  34. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    That's my point, analytics are worthless. Big 10 could make noise as a whole, I'll believe it when I see it. Everyone was gobbling the ACC sack in 2017 when they got 9 teams in and finished with a record of 11-8, with 6 of those wins coming from UNC. The other 8 teams all lost in the 1st or 2nd round (WF lost in the First 4). Anyway, back to analytics. I know plenty of people on this site think KenPom is God. According to him Purdue (14-14, 3-8 away, 1-2 neutral) is 25th right now. Should those 14 losses and the inability to win away from home be forgiven just because they beat the shit out of a few good teams? Apparently Ol' Ken thinks so.
     
  35. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    The whole quad system is a bit of a joke if you ask me. Quad 1 goes to 30 at home but soars to 75 on the road. The difference from 30 to 75 is huge, I don't give a shit where they're playing.
     
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  36. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Or we'll both get knocked out before the second weekend. It's a crazy season. Baylor and Kansas really do look like a notch above the rest of the field. Everyone else, seems like they're in the same boat of potentially being knocked out in the first or second round - or possibly advancing to the Final Four.
     
  37. Quavarius

    Quavarius Well-Known Member
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    You want NET or RPI?
     
  38. Kevin Bryan

    Kevin Bryan Moderator
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    They are definitely the deepest from top to bottom, as in most competitive. I think the Big East is right there too. I'm just not convinced they are all good/mediocre teams as opposed to bad. It's very possible that Maryland will be the only team in the conference without double digit losses heading into the tournament.
     
  39. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    There's a difference between analytics and ranking the best resumes. Analytics is there more to forecast probabilities. Purdue's 14 losses can't simply be forgiven. You have to earn wins. Look at bracketmatrix. It's a composite of close to 100 bracketologists. Purdue is still on the bubble, but they're on the outside looking in. As of right now, they wouldn't make the tournament. They look good on the analytic side of things because they've pummeled the likes of Michigan State, Iowa, and Virginia. They also have a lot of losses to account for.

    On the opposite side of the analytics, is a team like Auburn. They're only ranked 38th by KenPom. They're 13-0 in single-digit games, including 5 overtime wins and a buzzer-beater in regulation. Those wins have a lot of merit, and they deserved to be seeded accordingly. As of right now, it looks like a 4 or 5 seed. They won't be downgraded to a 10 seed simply because of the computer models. They earned those wins, and the committee obviously values wins more than efficiency margins.
     
  40. schoonerwest

    schoonerwest Well-Known Member
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    This guy going for a historic screwjob for Baylor.
     
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