Big Ten
For the first time in a long time, Indiana is a lock. After a 10-6 start, and an anemic 1-4 beginning to league play, the Hoosiers have resurrected the lofty ambitions for their 2022-23 season with the same toughness, intensity and
Trayce Jackson-Davis-led two-way productivity that nearly saw them overcome a huge deficit at super-hot
Northwestern Wednesday night, and then helped them outlast a very up-for-it Illinois in Bloomington Saturday. Despite an early-season injury to senior point guard
Xavier Johnson — which, in retrospect, forced the maturation of both freshman guard
Jalen Hood-Schifino (into an immediately top college player) and junior
Trey Galloway (into a consistent offensive initiator even in the half court), which should pay lasting dividends even when Johnson returns — IU has mostly hit preseason targets for this season.
This is the best Hoosiers group since 2015-16, when IU’s season ended in the Sweet 16, a few months before we got married. Three offspring later, across multiple web sites, Indiana has never once been a lock in any edition of Bubble Watch. It’s just a silly column, sure, but that’s also a pretty good indicator of consistent, uninterrupted mediocrity. It’s a long time to be so average. It’s over now.
Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on Michigan. The Wolverines’ (NET: 65) home win over
Michigan State Saturday night made them 15-12 and added a Quadrant 2 win to a resume that could still add a win at
Rutgers Thursday night with
Wisconsin (home),
Illinois and Indiana (both away) to close out the regular season. Not worth putting on the page, but you never know!
Locks: Purdue, Indiana
Should be in: Maryland, Illinois, Rutgers, Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa
Work to do: Penn State, Wisconsin
Maryland (18-9, 9-7; NET: 24, SOS: 26): Well, well, well: Look who has the best non-Hoosier State NET ranking in the Big Ten! Before you get mad at us, raw one-off NET ranking doesn’t mean all that much to the committee in and of itself, but we are highlighting here just to compliment the good work Maryland continues to do this season, up to and including last week’s 68-54 home win over Purdue. The Terps cooked Purdue so thoroughly during a 29-4 second half run that
Zach Edey’s uniform still smells like Old Bay. Of course Maryland turned around and lost in overtime at (suddenly frisky!) Nebraska, but the net (and NET) benefit of the 14-point win over the Boilermakers remains.
Illinois (18-9, 9-7; NET: 27, SOS: 28): Last week was not a great week, all things considered: The Illini caught an all-time haymaker from Penn State star
Jalen Pickett Tuesday night, only to squander a very good performance at Indiana in the closing minutes of an eventual 71-68 loss Saturday afternoon. Still, the broad arc of the Illini’s season remains undeniably positive, from the wins over
UCLA and Texas to the pretty consistent league performance. They’re heading toward a single-digit seed.
Rutgers (17-10, 9-7; NET: 29, SOS: 39): The Scarlet Knights badly needed Saturday’s win at Wisconsin. Not in the same way the Badgers needed it, of course — Rutgers remains in pretty solid tournament shape — but for the purposes of breaking a three-game losing streak that sent a good season sliding toward the middle of the Big Ten pack pretty suddenly in the past couple of weeks. Saturday’s defense-off with Wisconsin was punctuated by a 6-of-10 3-point shooting night from
Cam Spencer, the kind of offensive contribution Steve Pikiell craves from the one guy on his team consistently willing (and more importantly able) to take 3s.
Northwestern (20-7, 11-5; NET: 39, SOS: 54): Was Feb. 5 to Feb. 19 the best two weeks in the history of Northwestern men’s basketball? Presumably March 2017, when the Wildcats went to their first-ever NCAA Tournament and then won a game to boot, have to qualify as more enjoyable for everyone involved. But — especially for a program with a history of success quite as nonexistent as this one — it will hard to beat what Boo Buie & Co. just put together. On Feb. 5, a 15-7 Northwestern with a very shaky tournament resume held off Wisconsin at the Kohl Center, then won at Ohio State, then last week upset Purdue and Indiana in the matter of four days, finishing it off with a blowout offensive performance against Iowa Sunday night. Fourteen days, five huge wins, a couple of them vastly bigger than others, and all of a sudden it looks like Northwestern is a win away this week (either at Illinois Thursday or Maryland Sunday) from a lock. Remember when we were worried about a soft noncon schedule and Northwestern racking up enough B1G wins to make up the difference? Ha. This team has come a very long way in a very short space of time.
Michigan State (16-10, 8-7; NET: 40, SOS: 5): “So what’s a basketball team’s place in all of this?” So begins Brendan Quinn’s piece on Michigan State’s decision to play in the wake of the 71st mass shooting in the United States in 2023 — in East Lansing last week, which has vastly more to say about where Michigan State actually is than any Bubble Watch blurb could ever hope to, so go read that. The Spartans lost at Michigan Saturday, but their sheer presence there was a kind of victory unto itself. Tuesday night’s home against Indiana is likely to be even more emotional.
Iowa (17-10, 9-7; NET: 42, SOS: 22): A minor storyline in Northwestern’s blowout win over Iowa Sunday was Fran McCaffery’s ejection for arguing with officials late in the second half. McCaffery’s semi-regular outbursts have always been very funny to us; the combination of buttoned-down appearance and sudden unhinged response has always reminded us of the impotent middle-aged rage of Will Ferrell’s “I drive a Dodge Stratus!” SNL skit. What made Sunday’s even funnier was the extremely casual way the official tossed McCaffery from the game. His “you’re out of here” mechanic is literally what you do when you throw a tennis ball for your dog to go fetch, but while you’re starting at your phone, so the whole thing looks like you barely noticed doing it.
Oh, OK, old boy. Here you go. Hahahaha. Fran McCaffery is comedy.
Penn State (16-11, 7-9; NET: 59, SOS: 41): The Nittany Lions are back? Thank Jalen Pickett, who scored 41 points (and had eight assists) on 15-of-20 shooting (!!) in a 93-81 win over Illinois last Tuesday. One of the great single performances of the season — of most seasons, frankly — carried the Nittany Lions on a wave of offensive efficiency they badly needed after four straight defeats. This will still be an uphill climb. The Nittany Lions probably need to go at least 3-1 in their challenging final four games of the regular season (at
Ohio State, vs. Rutgers, at Northwestern, vs. Maryland) to get the balance of quality wins versus broader team sheet ugliness (3-5 in Quadrant 2, 288 noncon SOS) in a better place. But Pickett had 32 on 12-of-20 shooting (with nine rebounds and eight assists) Saturday at Minnesota. If he keeps this up, there’s no telling what Penn State might pull off.
Wisconsin (15-11, 7-9; NET: 76, SOS: 12): Wisconsin has long been shaping up as one of the more interesting bubble thought experiments of the season, and Saturday’s narrow home loss to Rutgers hardly changed that. Among teams along the cut line, few have a win as good as a true road victory at Marquette, let alone the five Quadrant 1 wins the Badgers have amassed. At the same time, there are just a lot of losses here, period, including a 4-3 record in Quadrant 2, and the matter of a NET that doesn’t even land the Badgers among the top two Quadrants on opponents’ resumes when they play Greg Gard’s team in their respective home gyms. The predictive metrics (especially BPI) agrees with the NET’s assessment, but if the NET is nothing more than an organizing tool, then that won’t matter — right?