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This years champ will be worst in last 20 years

2013 was so bad, they didn't have a champion.

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Kenpom #1 has the lowest rating in 14 years. However, I’m betting that would rise a good bit if they won the tourney.
 
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UConn won the title in 2014, so the odds are still pretty good that the national champ this year will be a little better.

As it stands, there are 10 programs (Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, San Diego State, Baylor, Dayton, West Virginia, Louisville, Michigan State, and Maryland ) with a higher KenPom adjusted efficiency margin than '14 UConn.
 
Convince me I’m wrong.

That's easy. Just look at who "won" the 2019 championship. There's the worst NCAA tourney winner of all time. If all the winners were put in a tournament to play each other, the 2019 "winner" would get blown out in the first round.
 
That's easy. Just look at who "won" the 2019 championship. There's the worst NCAA tourney winner of all time. If all the winners were put in a tournament to play each other, the 2019 "winner" would get blown out in the first round.

You're trying too hard. UVA went 35-3 with losses to Duke (x2) and FSU.
 
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UConn won the title in 2014, so the odds are still pretty good that the national champ this year will be a little better.

As it stands, there are 10 programs (Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, San Diego State, Baylor, Dayton, West Virginia, Louisville, Michigan State, and Maryland ) with a higher KenPom adjusted efficiency margin than '14 UConn.

Ah, yes, 2014 UConn. Not to mention 2011 UConn. End thread.
 
UConn won the title in 2014, so the odds are still pretty good that the national champ this year will be a little better.

As it stands, there are 10 programs (Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, San Diego State, Baylor, Dayton, West Virginia, Louisville, Michigan State, and Maryland ) with a higher KenPom adjusted efficiency margin than '14 UConn.


Is everyone obsessed with Ken Pomeroy on this board?
 
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Who do you think are the contenders at this point?

Baylor
Gonzaga
Sdsu
Kansas
Duke
Louisville
Villanova
Seton hall
Maryland
Fsu
Auburn
Kentucky
Dayton

the Inflation of the big 10 is what kills me with kenpom
 
Baylor
Gonzaga
Sdsu
Kansas
Duke
Louisville
Villanova
Seton hall
Maryland
Fsu
Auburn
Kentucky
Dayton

the Inflation of the big 10 is what kills me with kenpom

The list is fair enough, but not your disdain for the Big Ten. Your national title contenders are 6-6 against the Big Ten conference.

SDSU: W- Iowa
Gonzaga: L- Michigan
Duke: W- Michigan State
Louisville: W- Michigan
FSU: W- Purdue, L- Indiana
Seton Hall: MSU- L, Rutgers- L, Maryland- W
Villanova: L- Ohio State
Kentucky: W- MSU, L- Ohio State
 
The list is fair enough, but not your disdain for the Big Ten. Your national title contenders are 6-6 against the Big Ten conference.

SDSU: W- Iowa
Gonzaga: L- Michigan
Duke: W- Michigan State
Louisville: W- Michigan
FSU: W- Purdue, L- Indiana
Seton Hall: MSU- L, Rutgers- L, Maryland- W
Villanova: L- Ohio State
Kentucky: W- MSU, L- Ohio State

Meh. Games played in November and December. Doesn’t really say much.
 
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lol that's the only way you could possibly compare teams from other conferences.

don’t disagree but it doesn’t mean the rankings aren’t skewed. For example duke and Kentucky are routinely much different teams in March than november
 
don’t disagree but it doesn’t mean the rankings aren’t skewed. For example duke and Kentucky are routinely much different teams in March than november

Yeah, I get that. But the OOC is what determines the strength of a conference. The Big Ten won their OOC games. They are deserving of a higher margin for error. The fact that your title contenders struggled against the Big Ten indicates the strength of a conference.

There's still a lot of mobility for a team to move up in rankings if they can win most of their conference games. I think the assessments on the Big Ten are accurate. A LOT of good teams. Somewhat lacking in elite teams. Maryland and Michigan State probably fit that bill, however. And honestly, Penn State is a team to watch closely. They've won 4 consecutive road games.
 
Every analyst, when discussing metrics, say the Evansville loss is what is pulling UK down. It's a terrible loss. No question. But those metrics don't allow for team improvement/growth.
 
Yeah, I get that. But the OOC is what determines the strength of a conference. The Big Ten won their OOC games. They are deserving of a higher margin for error. The fact that your title contenders struggled against the Big Ten indicates the strength of a conference.

There's still a lot of mobility for a team to move up in rankings if they can win most of their conference games. I think the assessments on the Big Ten are accurate. A LOT of good teams. Somewhat lacking in elite teams. Maryland and Michigan State probably fit that bill, however. And honestly, Penn State is a team to watch closely. They've won 4 consecutive road games.

auburn is winning most of of our conference games. We also went perfect in the non conference. Of course Ken doesn’t put any premium on winning though. If only we could be an “efficient” 13-9
 
Yeah, I get that. But the OOC is what determines the strength of a conference. The Big Ten won their OOC games. They are deserving of a higher margin for error. The fact that your title contenders struggled against the Big Ten indicates the strength of a conference.

There's still a lot of mobility for a team to move up in rankings if they can win most of their conference games. I think the assessments on the Big Ten are accurate. A LOT of good teams. Somewhat lacking in elite teams. Maryland and Michigan State probably fit that bill, however. And honestly, Penn State is a team to watch closely. They've won 4 consecutive road games.
I agree with your statements; however, every year the B1G is over rated and end up with a bunch of teams in the NCAA. In November and December Kentucky split with Ohio State and Michigan State. That was the early UK team that lost to Evansville and Utah. But that same team beat Louisville and Georgia Tech.

The SEC is lacking in elite teams but I doubt that the B1G is much better.
 
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auburn is winning most of of our conference games. We also went perfect in the non conference. Of course Ken doesn’t put any premium on winning though. If only we could be an “efficient” 13-9

KenPom does what any system should do: consider both the outcome (winning and how) and opponent. So, no, KenPom does not put a special "premium on winning" because a close win against a crappy team is not a better indicator of quality than a close loss against a good team. The weightings are all based on years and years of data that conclusively demonstrates this, and has been tested in the free market (i.e. betting lines track KenPom, and bookmakers make money).
 
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Every analyst, when discussing metrics, say the Evansville loss is what is pulling UK down. It's a terrible loss. No question. But those metrics don't allow for team improvement/growth.

One loss doesn't have a devastating impact on any decent system.
 
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