IU loses its best three players, that's a total of 41 points from a team that finished 7-11, in 11th place. Suppose Johnson and Davis do raise thier points per game to the level of JBJ and Bryant, then who steps up and replaces the points they contributed last year? You had all four of these players and finished 11th. Even if you have guys step up and replace the 20 ppg that Johnson and Davis gave you, you still have 21 ppg to replace with OG leaving. Now suppose all the stars align and you do replace all 41 ppg, once again, that seems unlikely with your new guys and if it happens, you are still only equaling a record that got you 11th place.
IU will need some serious things to go their way and several teams to get worse, while the 3 teams below them last season don't get any better. To think you will not only equal last seasons production after losing your three best players, but have unproven players exceed it, is delusional. Archie may be a better coach than Crean, but replacing 41 ppg is a tough task for any coach and probably impossible for a coach new to a more competitive league.
But by all means, keep the faith.
I am curious as to the five teams you think IU will bypass on their way to a top 6 finish?