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2018-19 College Basketball Draft

I think we all like Matthews, but he's no guarantee to be first team all Big 10. Lots of guys drafted before him have better shots at points, either because they play in a weaker conference or because they already proved they can pick up points in a power conference.

That said, I was definitely not happy when Matthews got picked before I could grab him.
 
dukedevilz said:
I think it's about right, personally.

Michigan won 33 games last year - they're almost certain to win fewer games this year. While I believe Matthews will be the go-to-guy, any increase in production would likely be neutralized by fewer team wins, which leads to fewer opportunities for win shares. This is why Ethan Happ was a bit overvalued last year, most people didn't consider how impactful the losses would be on his win shares (6.4 win shares as a sophomore; 4.6 win shares as a Junior).

Matthews had 4.5 win shares last season, which is solid, but for All-American honors, usually you need 6+ win shares. If he can develop a consistent jump shot, then he absolutely could be an All-American... and this pick would be a steal. But I'm not overly confident in his jump shot. He'll still be 1st/2nd Team All-Conference, IMO. Late 5th rounder seems about right to me.
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There is a large gap between All American and late 5th round picks. Saying Matthews should’ve went higher doesnt mean he has to be an All American.
 
hailtoyourvictor said:
There is a large gap between All American and late 5th round picks. Saying Matthews should’ve went higher doesnt mean he has to be an All American.
Click to expand...


Well, if he's not going to be on one of the AA teams then he's not a great pick since you're only expecting him to make an all conference team and there are other players out there who have better chances of making all conference teams than Matthews.

For instance, my guy I just picked Chris Clemmons. No shot at any AA team, but he's already been 2x All Big South first team and the two guys who split POY were both seniors. Clemmons is pretty much guaranteed at least 4 points whereas Matthews has a shot at 4 points, but it's no guarantee.
 
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hailtoyourvictor said:
There is a large gap between All American and late 5th round picks. Saying Matthews should’ve went higher doesnt mean he has to be an All American.
Click to expand...

@WeAreDePaul explained this very well.

Also, last year with 80 players drafted, Mo Wagner was 33rd in terms of most valuable selection (win shares + post season accolades). Wagner had an amazing season last year... but his true value, if he was drafted according to this ranking system, would be a 4th round pick. I don't think it's insulting to say Matthews as a late 5th rounder is about right.

Ultimately we'll be wrong about several guys (ie: last year no one drafted Trae Young). But drafting is based on probability, of course. Top-tier All-American candidates and mid-major superstars will get the bulk of the picks in the first 4 rounds.
 
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Round 1
1. Carsen Edwards- Purdue
2. Tremont Water- LSU
3. Mike Daum- South Dakota State
4. Ethan Happ- Wisconsin
5. Zion Williamson- Duke
6. RJ Barrett- Duke
7. Luke Maye- North Carolina
8. Rui Hachimura- Gonzaga
9. Dedric Lawson- Kansas
10. Caleb Martin- Nevada

Round 2
11. Grant Williams- Tennessee
12. Cassius Winston- Michigan State
13. Tyus Battle- Syracuse
14. Shamorie Ponds- St.John's
15. Romeo Langford- Indiana
16. Dean Wade- Kansas State
17. Markus Howard- Marquette
18. D'Marcus Simonds- Georgia State
19. Sagaba Konate- West Virginia
20. Payton Pritchard- Oregon

Round 3
21. Kyle Guy- Virginia
22. Cody Martin- Nevada
23. Jon Elmore- Marshall
24. Eric Paschall- Villanova
25. Anthony Cowan- Maryland
26. Clayton Custer- Loyola Chicago
27. DeAndre Hunter- Virginia
28. Reid Travis- Kentucky
29. Jordan Murphy- Minnesota
30. Ky Bowman- Boston College

Round 4
31. Quentin Grimes- Kansas
32. Jaylen Nowell- Washington
33. Nassir Little- North Carolina
34. James Palmer- Nebraska
35. Cam Reddish- Duke
36. Kevin Porter- USC
37. John Konchar- Fort Wayne
38. Kamar Baldwin- Butler
39. Chris Silva- South Carolina
40. Elijah Thomas- Clemson

Round 5
41. Kris Wilkes- UCLA
42. Kellan Grady- Davidson
43. PJ Washington- Kentucky
44. Temetrius (Ja) Morant- Murray State
45. Admiral Schofield- Tennessee
46. Jontay Porter- Missouri
47. Bol Bol- Oregon
48. Juwan Morgan- Indiana
49. McKinley Wright- Colorado
50. Charles Matthews- Michigan

Round 6
51. Lindell Wigginton- Iowa State
52. CJ Massinburg- Buffalo
53. Quinndary Weatherspoon- Mississippi State
54. Barry Brown - Kansas State
55. Zach Norvel - Gonzaga
56. Jessie Govan - Georgetown
57. Tookie Brown - Ga Southern
58. Udoka Azubuike - Kansas
59. Naz Reid- LSU
60. TJ Gibbs- Notre Dame
Round 7
61. Anthony Lamb- Vermont
62. Chris Clemons-Campbell
63. Daniel Gafford-Arkansas
64. Dylan Windler-Belmont
 
Round 1
1. Carsen Edwards- Purdue
2. Tremont Water- LSU
3. Mike Daum- South Dakota State
4. Ethan Happ- Wisconsin
5. Zion Williamson- Duke
6. RJ Barrett- Duke
7. Luke Maye- North Carolina
8. Rui Hachimura- Gonzaga
9. Dedric Lawson- Kansas
10. Caleb Martin- Nevada

Round 2
11. Grant Williams- Tennessee
12. Cassius Winston- Michigan State
13. Tyus Battle- Syracuse
14. Shamorie Ponds- St.John's
15. Romeo Langford- Indiana
16. Dean Wade- Kansas State
17. Markus Howard- Marquette
18. D'Marcus Simonds- Georgia State
19. Sagaba Konate- West Virginia
20. Payton Pritchard- Oregon

Round 3
21. Kyle Guy- Virginia
22. Cody Martin- Nevada
23. Jon Elmore- Marshall
24. Eric Paschall- Villanova
25. Anthony Cowan- Maryland
26. Clayton Custer- Loyola Chicago
27. DeAndre Hunter- Virginia
28. Reid Travis- Kentucky
29. Jordan Murphy- Minnesota
30. Ky Bowman- Boston College

Round 4
31. Quentin Grimes- Kansas
32. Jaylen Nowell- Washington
33. Nassir Little- North Carolina
34. James Palmer- Nebraska
35. Cam Reddish- Duke
36. Kevin Porter- USC
37. John Konchar- Fort Wayne
38. Kamar Baldwin- Butler
39. Chris Silva- South Carolina
40. Elijah Thomas- Clemson

Round 5
41. Kris Wilkes- UCLA
42. Kellan Grady- Davidson
43. PJ Washington- Kentucky
44. Temetrius (Ja) Morant- Murray State
45. Admiral Schofield- Tennessee
46. Jontay Porter- Missouri
47. Bol Bol- Oregon
48. Juwan Morgan- Indiana
49. McKinley Wright- Colorado
50. Charles Matthews- Michigan

Round 6
51. Lindell Wigginton- Iowa State
52. CJ Massinburg- Buffalo
53. Quinndary Weatherspoon- Mississippi State
54. Barry Brown - Kansas State
55. Zach Norvel - Gonzaga
56. Jessie Govan - Georgetown
57. Tookie Brown - Ga Southern
58. Udoka Azubuike - Kansas
59. Naz Reid- LSU
60. TJ Gibbs- Notre Dame
Round 7
61. Anthony Lamb- Vermont
62. Chris Clemons-Campbell
63. Daniel Gafford-Arkansas
64. Dylan Windler-Belmont
 
WeAreDePaul said:
Well, if he's not going to be on one of the AA teams then he's not a great pick since you're only expecting him to make an all conference team and there are other players out there who have better chances of making all conference teams than Matthews.

For instance, my guy I just picked Chris Clemmons. No shot at any AA team, but he's already been 2x All Big South first team and the two guys who split POY were both seniors. Clemmons is pretty much guaranteed at least 4 points whereas Matthews has a shot at 4 points, but it's no guarantee.
Click to expand...

Didn’t look at scoring tbh. Something like high majors only and doing fanduel scoring for points with bonuses for all conference awards and AA awards would be more interesting to me. Not my league though, so have fun!
 
Sam Hauser, Marquette

Holy shit am I crushing this draft

@jwill133 is up

Round 1
1. Carsen Edwards- Purdue
2. Tremont Water- LSU
3. Mike Daum- South Dakota State
4. Ethan Happ- Wisconsin
5. Zion Williamson- Duke
6. RJ Barrett- Duke
7. Luke Maye- North Carolina
8. Rui Hachimura- Gonzaga
9. Dedric Lawson- Kansas
10. Caleb Martin- Nevada

Round 2
11. Grant Williams- Tennessee
12. Cassius Winston- Michigan State
13. Tyus Battle- Syracuse
14. Shamorie Ponds- St.John's
15. Romeo Langford- Indiana
16. Dean Wade- Kansas State
17. Markus Howard- Marquette
18. D'Marcus Simonds- Georgia State
19. Sagaba Konate- West Virginia
20. Payton Pritchard- Oregon

Round 3
21. Kyle Guy- Virginia
22. Cody Martin- Nevada
23. Jon Elmore- Marshall
24. Eric Paschall- Villanova
25. Anthony Cowan- Maryland
26. Clayton Custer- Loyola Chicago
27. DeAndre Hunter- Virginia
28. Reid Travis- Kentucky
29. Jordan Murphy- Minnesota
30. Ky Bowman- Boston College

Round 4
31. Quentin Grimes- Kansas
32. Jaylen Nowell- Washington
33. Nassir Little- North Carolina
34. James Palmer- Nebraska
35. Cam Reddish- Duke
36. Kevin Porter- USC
37. John Konchar- Fort Wayne
38. Kamar Baldwin- Butler
39. Chris Silva- South Carolina
40. Elijah Thomas- Clemson

Round 5
41. Kris Wilkes- UCLA
42. Kellan Grady- Davidson
43. PJ Washington- Kentucky
44. Temetrius (Ja) Morant- Murray State
45. Admiral Schofield- Tennessee
46. Jontay Porter- Missouri
47. Bol Bol- Oregon
48. Juwan Morgan- Indiana
49. McKinley Wright- Colorado
50. Charles Matthews- Michigan

Round 6
51. Lindell Wigginton- Iowa State
52. CJ Massinburg- Buffalo
53. Quinndary Weatherspoon- Mississippi State
54. Barry Brown - Kansas State
55. Zach Norvel - Gonzaga
56. Jessie Govan - Georgetown
57. Tookie Brown - Ga Southern
58. Udoka Azubuike - Kansas
59. Naz Reid- LSU
60. TJ Gibbs- Notre Dame

Round 7
61. Anthony Lamb- Vermont
62. Chris Clemons-Campbell
63. Daniel Gafford-Arkansas
64. Dylan Windler-Belmont
65. Sam Hauser - Marquette
 
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Round 1
1. Carsen Edwards- Purdue
2. Tremont Water- LSU
3. Mike Daum- South Dakota State
4. Ethan Happ- Wisconsin
5. Zion Williamson- Duke
6. RJ Barrett- Duke
7. Luke Maye- North Carolina
8. Rui Hachimura- Gonzaga
9. Dedric Lawson- Kansas
10. Caleb Martin- Nevada

Round 2
11. Grant Williams- Tennessee
12. Cassius Winston- Michigan State
13. Tyus Battle- Syracuse
14. Shamorie Ponds- St.John's
15. Romeo Langford- Indiana
16. Dean Wade- Kansas State
17. Markus Howard- Marquette
18. D'Marcus Simonds- Georgia State
19. Sagaba Konate- West Virginia
20. Payton Pritchard- Oregon

Round 3
21. Kyle Guy- Virginia
22. Cody Martin- Nevada
23. Jon Elmore- Marshall
24. Eric Paschall- Villanova
25. Anthony Cowan- Maryland
26. Clayton Custer- Loyola Chicago
27. DeAndre Hunter- Virginia
28. Reid Travis- Kentucky
29. Jordan Murphy- Minnesota
30. Ky Bowman- Boston College

Round 4
31. Quentin Grimes- Kansas
32. Jaylen Nowell- Washington
33. Nassir Little- North Carolina
34. James Palmer- Nebraska
35. Cam Reddish- Duke
36. Kevin Porter- USC
37. John Konchar- Fort Wayne
38. Kamar Baldwin- Butler
39. Chris Silva- South Carolina
40. Elijah Thomas- Clemson

Round 5
41. Kris Wilkes- UCLA
42. Kellan Grady- Davidson
43. PJ Washington- Kentucky
44. Temetrius (Ja) Morant- Murray State
45. Admiral Schofield- Tennessee
46. Jontay Porter- Missouri
47. Bol Bol- Oregon
48. Juwan Morgan- Indiana
49. McKinley Wright- Colorado
50. Charles Matthews- Michigan

Round 6
51. Lindell Wigginton- Iowa State
52. CJ Massinburg- Buffalo
53. Quinndary Weatherspoon- Mississippi State
54. Barry Brown - Kansas State
55. Zach Norvel - Gonzaga
56. Jessie Govan - Georgetown
57. Tookie Brown - Ga Southern
58. Udoka Azubuike - Kansas
59. Naz Reid- LSU
60. TJ Gibbs- Notre Dame

Round 7
61. Anthony Lamb- Vermont
62. Chris Clemons-Campbell
63. Daniel Gafford-Arkansas
64. Dylan Windler-Belmont
65. Sam Hauser - Marquette
66. Jaylen Hands - UCLA
67. Charles Bassey - Western Tucky
68. Trent Forrest - FSU
69. Jarrett Culver - Texas Tech
70. Marquise Reed - Clemson

Round 8
71. Jalen Adams - UCONN
72. Yoeli Childs - BYU
 
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@GE Nole 24 hours has almost expired on your clock. Starting at 9:04 Eastern, @jhmossy will be allowed to skip ahead of you if you haven't made a selection by then.

Probably not a big deal at this stage in the draft, but just thought that both parties should be aware.
 
jhmossy said:
Fine. I pick TJ Shorts II, UC Davis.

Dude won Big West POY and 1st team All Big West last year. That's a steal for Round 8.

I guess that means you're up @jwill133
Click to expand...


Do you get double points if you win Conf POY and then by default have to also be on the first team all conference? I assumed you only get the 5 points for CPOY. Do you get 9 points instead?

Prolly should've asked this earlier lol

@dukedevilz
 
WeAreDePaul said:
Do you get double points if you win Conf POY and then by default have to also be on the first team all conference? I assumed you only get the 5 points for CPOY. Do you get 9 points instead?

Prolly should've asked this earlier lol

@dukedevilz
Click to expand...

Pretty sure you would get 9
 
Drew McDonald- NKU.

Picking him assuming conference POY gets 5 and 1st team conference is 4.....
 
WeAreDePaul said:
Do you get double points if you win Conf POY and then by default have to also be on the first team all conference? I assumed you only get the 5 points for CPOY. Do you get 9 points instead?

Prolly should've asked this earlier lol

@dukedevilz
Click to expand...

Nope. You only get points for whatever is the highest accolade. Off of that scenario, Jalen Brunson would have received 29 points alone, just from postseason awards. 10 for NCAA POY, 9 for 1st Team AA, 5 for Big East POY, and 4 for 1st Team All-Big East. That seems a bit excessive to me.

Also, the Win Shares and Postseason accolades are supposed to be close to a 50-50 distribution. If you look at the highest win shares per season, only 9 players have reached 10 win shares or higher. Essentially, 20 would be the perfect score - 10 points in win shares and 10 points for being National Player of the Year.

Here are the 9 players (since 1995-96) that have reached 10 win shares:
Kevin Love- 11.29, 2008 (UCLA)
Andrew Bogut- 10.94, 2005 (Utah)
Paul Millsap- 10.82, 2006 (La.Tech)
Michael Beasley- 10.74, 2008 (Kansas State)
Tim Duncan- 10.44, 1997 (Wake Forest)
Wally Szczerbiak- 10.43, 1999 (Miami Ohio)
Stephen Curry- 10.30, 2008 (Davidson)
Shane Battier- 10.14, 2001 (Duke)
Elton Brand- 10.00, 1999 (Duke)

Stephen Curry was at 9.95 in 2009, and Anthony Davis reached 9.93 in 2012.
 
Last edited:
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dukedevilz said:
Nope. You only get points for whatever is the highest accolade. Off of that scenario, Jalen Brunson would have received 29 points alone, just from postseason awards. 10 for NCAA POY, 9 for 1st Team AA, 5 for Big East POY, and 4 for 1st Team All-Big East. That seems a bit excessive to me.
Click to expand...

Whoops lol
 
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cool I was right about that. Maybe that will make up for me not understanding how win shares work lol.
 
Win shares attempt to calculate how many wins an individual contributes to his team's win total. If you had 5 guys that played 40 minutes a game and your team won 30 games, the average should come out to 6 win shares per person. But certainly not everyone plays the same amount of minutes - and not everyone is equally effective.

Here are a couple articles:

Get to Know An Advanced Stat: Win Shares
Calculating Win Shares (Somewhat Technical)
 
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dukedevilz said:
Win shares attempt to calculate how many wins an individual contributes to his team's win total. If you had 5 guys that played 40 minutes a game and your team won 30 games, the average should come out to 6 win shares per person. But certainly not everyone plays the same amount of minutes - and not everyone is equally effective.

Here are a couple articles:

Get to Know An Advanced Stat: Win Shares
Calculating Win Shares (Somewhat Technical)
Click to expand...

Smart of you to wait until after the draft is nearly complete to link this.
 
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Mgkcbb said:
Smart of you to wait until after the draft is nearly complete to link this.
Click to expand...

I guess I assumed most everyone was familiar with win shares. Didn't really hear much from the other posters. It almost seems self-explanatory to me (not the formula, but the logic behind it). You have so many wins in a season - what share of the team's success are you responsible for?
 
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sdsufan10 said:
Give me the best kept secret on a top 5 team....Brandon Clarke Gonzaga
Click to expand...

I've been tempted to take him a couple times... I just get nervous about taking a transfer because I don't know exactly how he's going to fit into the rotation. I could see Gonzaga starting Perkins-Norvell-Kispert-Hachimura-Tillie. Certainly he has a much higher ceiling than Kispert, but he's not going to stretch the floor. Also, Jacob Larsen quit basketball, so I could see Few wanting to use a smaller starting unit so he has at least one capable big off the bench. If he's able to get similar minutes from his time at SJSU, then he should be a steal.
 
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We have 2 more rounds coming up. But these are just insurance guys to replace one of your core guys that could potentially be injured or suspended (who knows how pervasive the FBI case might be). I'll assume everyone is locking in on guys they selected in the first 8 rounds, unless I hear otherwise.
 
dukedevilz said:
We have 2 more rounds coming up. But these are just insurance guys to replace one of your core guys that could potentially be injured or suspended (who knows how pervasive the FBI case might be). I'll assume everyone is locking in on guys they selected in the first 8 rounds, unless I hear otherwise.
Click to expand...


Can we name our starting 8 at a later agreed upon deadline date like Dec 1? Gives us a sort of training camp to determine our best lineup.
 
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