OT- death projections 60k

[GE Nole]

Things will resume before we have a vaccine. People will still be getting the virus. My only question is how long do we wait and let people suffer before we make The call

Lol, “let people suffer.”

We wait until the health care system has had time to catch up with testing, ventilators, mask production, etc. That’s been said in this thread several times.

What was up with the “gut punch abortion” questions? Was there a follow up point?

 

[ThroughBlue]

Could even be stretched to be called attempted murder of the pregnant lady if there was evidence that there was a chance of internal bleeding and complications with the pregnancy that could reasonably lead to the death of the pregnant lady. I could see an DA trying to stick that on the offending party.

You’re both wrong. The guy would be charged with murder of the unborn

 

[bkingUK]

All libertarians see us more government = less freedom. A part of me respects that. It should be paid attention to, but in times of crisis (Pearl Harbor, 911, Pandemic), it becomes even less realistic. People don't have time or patience for ideological integrity when faced with emergency. Will say though, there is a point where the actions of government in emergency go too far (imprisonment of all Japanese post-Pearl Harbor, some aspects of Patriot Act and war post 9-11), and there will be a time where actions of pandemic go too far. A lot of that won't become evident til in hindsight.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Lol, “let people suffer.”

We wait until the health care system has had time to catch up with testing, ventilators, mask production, etc. That’s been said in this thread several times.

What was up with the “gut punch abortion” questions? Was there a follow up point?

Healthcare facilities are already closing their special covid units because they are going unused. Florida just took its projected ventilator use to zero. This isn’t the Black Plague. Now that we have an idea of how we can treat it it’s time to get people back to work

 

[ThroughBlue]

I don't think your views show a political preference. No offense (honestly), but your views just make you sound like someone incapable of grasping simple concepts of logic. You just sound like a really stupid person.

Small government confuses some people because it requires them to think and act for themself. Seems you are one of those. Hopefully the government gives you the go ahead so you can feel safe soon

 

[ThroughBlue]

That wasn't the question you asked though. This question is a good question. I don't know. I think the reasonable answer is to defer to the experts but I knot that is hard for some, especially for people who think the experts are part of some grand conspiracy or even simply that they are wrong. I assume there has to be some point where we feel the numbers are to the point where we can test and trace, right? That is why some countries have been successful and what we didn't originally do. So testing and knowledge need to increase to the point where those who know more than we do feel we can manage things.

How many cities are being overrun? New York? They were closing hospitals before this. Their healthcare was in ruin if anything this virus will save their healthcare system in that city

 

[GE Nole]

Healthcare facilities are already closing their special covid units because they are going unused. Florida just took its projected ventilator use to zero. This isn’t the Black Plague. Now that we have an idea of how we can treat it it’s time to get people back to work

I’m not sure there’s really any people significantly disagreeing with you in this thread. However, this is a much different stance than some of your initial comments.

 

[coryfly]

How many cities are being overrun? New York? They were closing hospitals before this. Their healthcare was in ruin if anything this virus will save their healthcare system in that city

Good for them then. And yes, social distancing seems to be working so good for us as well. I agree the sooner the better in terms of getting things rolling. It isn't like I'm glad we are all just sitting around.

 

[GE Nole]

You’re both wrong. The guy would be charged with murder of the unborn

Well duh. You didn't ask what he WOULD be charged with in our society. You asked what I would charge him with based on my perspective.

 

[ThroughBlue]

I’m not sure there’s really any people significantly disagreeing with you in this thread. However, this is a much different stance than some of your initial comments.

Not different at all. It’s time to get people back to work. If they allowed fans to go to games I would buy a ticket and go but I understand that probably won’t happen. I think we were fed a load of BS with early “projections” of death totals and how many vents we would need. This thing attacks old people fat people and people who have compromised immune systems. Let that information be known and let people live their life.

Well duh. You didn't ask what he WOULD be charged with in our society. You asked what I would charge him with based on my perspective.

Do you honestly feel like he shouldn’t be charged with murder

 

[UL_1986]

Interesting to hear your view? And what you think political preference says about my view of the virus

I don’t think I need to reaffirm anything. I just made a simple observation.

 

[829305]

No no, I am still working and getting paid! My WIFE, her business collapsed. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

Gotcha. Well that sucks, too.

 

[TheDude1]

. It’s time to get people back to work.

Not according to any health expert on earth.

I think we were fed a load of BS with early “projections” of death totals and how many vents we would need. This thing attacks old people fat people and people who have compromised immune systems.

Also not according to any expert on earth.

What the **** is with people thinking they know more than others who spent an entire career in the field? It is so strange. And it’s only certain things… Like, if a soldier was telling you how to fight in combat, I don’t think the same people will be saying “no no no I know how to do it.”

Its just such an incredible hubris and arrogance.

It seems like there are a few of these people floating around these forums… Guys who think they about something they don’t a thing about, and they’re also tragically the people who are the least informed and are unwilling to listen to somebody who knows more than them, insisting they’ve been fed some big lie by doctors or experts or whatever. It is so ****ing bizarre. A big part of life is being willing to listen to people who know more than you, but some people just can’t.

Folks should read up on the Dunning-Kruger effect... I think it accounts for a lot of this. It basically shows that people who are too dumb to understand something are also too dumb to realize they don’t understand it, and therefore think that they know more than the people who are actually informed, educated, and experienced. It’s a pretty fascinating concept, and one that is very obviously on display with some of the posters on this forum.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vo...8200497/dunning-kruger-effect-explained-trump

 

[UL_1986]

Imagine thinking people should go back to work right now when this thing hasn’t even peaked yet. Yikes. Now I remember why I don’t get into political threads anymore. Too much idiocy.

 

[JimboBBN]

I do think there comes a point when we have to ask ourselves if a failing economy, that is seemingly only going to get worse if we stick to what we are doing, is worth doing this whole quarantine thing. Its a fair question IMO

Is there a line that we will cross at some point where the implications and results of this quarantine are worse than what they would be if we let the thing play out in a normal scenario.

I'm glad I don't have to figure this stuff out.

 

[TheDude1]

Imagine thinking people should go back to work right now when this thing hasn’t even peaked yet. Yikes. Now I remember why I don’t get into political threads anymore. Too much idiocy.

Yeah, it is hard to take. Like, it’s just hard to have a discussion with somebody who is just at a different level. And they don’t realize they are, and then they get all angry and upset and it becomes this whole thing of all “you’re just being snobby or stuck up!” and it’s like no… I just pay attention, and I see that it’s been like less than a month, and I listen to every expert, and this is just kind of just... paying attention, and accepting that people who know more than I do about a subject are worth listening to.

There was a guy on the Duke board who literally was ranting about Fauci being a fake and an idiot and having all these fake studies… One of the top infectious disease doctors in the world for decades, respected by people across the political spectrum, worked under something like six presidents, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for like three or four decades, educated and *experienced* beyond nearly anybody else... What do you even say that sort of post? There’s no way to have a rational conversation about it, and if you say this is ****ing moronic, the person gets all upset and it starts a fight.

 

[bkingUK]

German Antibody Tests Show 15% Infection Rate
https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

 

[TheDude1]

I do think there comes a point when we have to ask ourselves if a failing economy, that is seemingly only going to get worse if we stick to what we are doing, is worth doing this whole quarantine thing. Its a fair question IMO

Is there a line that we will cross at some point where the implications and results of this quarantine are worse than what they would be if we let the thing play out in a normal scenario.

I'm glad I don't have to figure this stuff out.

First off, I’m glad I don’t have to either… I just don’t have the education or experience with any of this

So absent that I sort of just have to work off of what experts are saying, mixed with a little bit of my own basic understanding of stuff, and it sounds like we are nowhere near where we need to be healthwise… Every medical expert in the world has said this is what we need to do, I need to go on for a while to save countless thousands of lives. they’ve been pretty unequivocal about it. I have no economics background, I personally have a hard time believing that an economy as huge and sprawling and powerful as ours can’t recover from what will literally be just a few months (maybe what... three? Four?) of this sort of thing, when we’ve made it through world wars and all the like.

As you say, I’m glad I don’t have to figure it out, I don’t have the education or experience to do it .

 

[TheDude1]

German Antibody Tests Show 15% Infection Rate
https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

I Think we will actually get a lot of people of already had it… You hear anecdotal stories people really being sick in January and February, and while some of that might be confirmation bias, I have to imagine it’s been here for a little while and we just didn’t know. My father had serious breathing issues right before he died in mid February, and I talked to my general practitioner today about me being sick, she’s actually a specialist in infectious diseases, and she posited that he might’ve had it. Crazy to think about.

 

[JimboBBN]

First off, I’m glad I don’t have to either… I just don’t have the education or experience with any of this

So absent that I sort of just have to work off of what experts are saying, mixed with a little bit of my own basic understanding of stuff, and it sounds like we are nowhere near where we need to be healthwise… Every medical expert in the world has said this is what we need to do, I need to go on for a while to save countless thousands of lives. they’ve been pretty unequivocal about it. I have no economics background, I personally have a hard time believing that an economy as huge and sprawling and powerful as ours can’t recover from what will literally be just a few months (maybe what... three? Four?) of this sort of thing, when we’ve made it through world wars and all the like.

As you say, I’m glad I don’t have to figure it out, I don’t have the education or experience to do it .

I tend to agree we aren't where we need to be health wise. I guess where I'm at is looking at a trickle down effect from this many people losing not only their jobs, but their savings and eventually homes. I'm not sure if there is any way to predict what the end effects will be in either scenario. All I'm pointing out is that, we have NO idea how bad this could all get if we continue to quarantine. Its just a risk we have to take, and I get that. But is it possible, that long term, we are worse off because of this quarantine and shut down than we would be had we let the virus play out naturally? I don't think that scenario is out of the realm of possibility.

 

[TheDude1]

I tend to agree we aren't where we need to be health wise. I guess where I'm at is looking at a trickle down effect from this many people losing not only their jobs, but their savings and eventually homes. I'm not sure if there is any way to predict what the end effects will be in either scenario. All I'm pointing out is that, we have NO idea how bad this could all get if we continue to quarantine. Its just a risk we have to take, and I get that. But is it possible, that long term, we are worse off because of this quarantine and shut down than we would be had we let the virus play out naturally? I don't think that scenario is out of the realm of possibility.

Not out of the realm, sure… But remember, there are estimates of like over 1 million dead in this country if we didn’t take serious action. It’s hard for me to imagine a economic downturn because of four months of quarantining or whatever being more damaging than nearly double the number of deaths of Americans in WWI and WWII combined. That’s a staggering number. I’m sure it will always be debated, but the negatives that the people knew the most were talking about were pretty damn bad…

 

[WeAreDePaul]

But is it possible, that long term, we are worse off because of this quarantine and shut down than we would be had we let the virus play out naturally? I don't think that scenario is out of the realm of possibility.

Jimbo, in that scenario with the virus being unchecked and playing out naturally we would literally have bodies in the streets, an overrun healthcare system and scores of people dying in their homes. How does the economy play out any differently in that scenario?

I'm still waiting for someone to come up with a scenario where we don't do social distancing/quarantine and the world goes on as if nothing is happening.

It's not possible.

 

[bkingUK]

I Think we will actually get a lot of people of already had it… You hear anecdotal stories people really being sick in January and February, and while some of that might be confirmation bias, I have to imagine it’s been here for a little while and we just didn’t know. My father had serious breathing issues right before he died in mid February, and I talked to my general practitioner today about me being sick, she’s actually a specialist in infectious diseases, and she posited that he might’ve had it. Crazy to think about.

Agree there is an element of confirmation bias. I might have that bias as well. Not exaggerating though that I had the strangest upper lung virus around Mid-February unlike any I've had before. Fully suspect I had it. Wish I could prove it. Antibody tests are our way out of this...

 

[JimboBBN]

Not out of the realm, sure… But remember, there are estimates of like over 1 million dead in this country if we didn’t take serious action. It’s hard for me to imagine a economic downturn because of four months of quarantining or whatever being more damaging than nearly double the number of deaths of Americans in WWI and WWII combined. That’s a staggering number. I’m sure it will always be debated, but the negatives that the people knew the most were talking about were pretty damn bad…

I guess it just depends on the number of people it would kill. Which no one can really do the math on until we have a solid number for cases to deaths. I'm sure we are probably doing whats best for the country, just horrible to think about how many families will be affected due to whats happening. Truly a lose - lose scenario.

 

[TheDude1]

I guess it just depends on the number of people it would kill. Which no one can really do the math on until we have a solid number for cases to deaths. I'm sure we are probably doing whats best for the country, just horrible to think about how many families will be affected due to whats happening. Truly a lose - lose scenario.

oh for sure, there’s no winning here. It’s just which loss is more acceptable. In terms of the math and stuff I just say look at whatever the experts are saying and go with that. They literally know a lot more than we do about all of this; some of them just literally do casualty modeling for a living… Like they spent decades looking at pandemics and how they spread and all that stuff.

Anyway, gotta work. Should be on on the early side tonight

 

[GE Nole]

Not different at all. It’s time to get people back to work. If they allowed fans to go to games I would buy a ticket and go but I understand that probably won’t happen. I think we were fed a load of BS with early “projections” of death totals and how many vents we would need. This thing attacks old people fat people and people who have compromised immune systems. Let that information be known and let people live their life.




Do you honestly feel like he shouldn’t be charged with murder

How many times are you gonna ask the same question? Yes. My answer is yes. Good gracious.

 

[IUfanBorden]

So no. Thanks for the links. Looked at all of them, none showed a health care system overrun by the flu. There's a big difference between some hospitals being stretched to capacity vs the entire healthcare industry being overrun.

also, none of those flu outbreaks happened despite strict social distancing protocols. Just imagine how overrun our already overrun healthcare system would be right now if we didn't lock things down? There would literally be bodies piling up in the streets and behind the closed doors of your neighbors' houses.

Yeah, yeah..Hospitals were turning people away...telling people not to come, etc, etc...No its not as this could have been. But then again, who knows? It's a virus that literally doesn't affect 80+% of the country. It has a 95% survival rate. But sure. Send the country into a depression...17 million are unemployed..Millioms more to follow. A company that list 4 million small business as members, reported that 82% face closure.
At the end of the day, the "cure" will far outweigh the virus.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Yeah, yeah..Hospitals were turning people away...telling people not to come, etc, etc...No its not as this could have been. But then again, who knows? It's a virus that literally doesn't affect 80+% of the country. It has a 95% survival rate. But sure. Send the country into a depression...17 million are unemployed..Millioms more to follow. A company that list 4 million small business as members, reported that 82% face closure.
At the end of the day, the "cure" will far outweigh the virus.

People keep saying "the cure can't be worse than the virus" which is a really catchy slogan, but what I'd rather hear from those people is what their brilliant alternative plan would've been. So what's your plan that would've worked better than what we are doing and would not have crashed the economy?

 

[TheDude1]

Yeah, yeah..Hospitals were turning people away...telling people not to come, etc, etc...No its not as this could have been. But then again, who knows? It's a virus that literally doesn't affect 80+% of the country. It has a 95% survival rate. But sure. Send the country into a depression...17 million are unemployed..Millioms more to follow. A company that list 4 million small business as members, reported that 82% face closure.
At the end of the day, the "cure" will far outweigh the virus.

That is not what any medical experts say. If you think we cannot get through three or four months of some businesses being closed down, how do you think we could get through a million or howevermany dead, with all of the coinciding stressors on our health care system?

I think it is extremely premature to make any judgements, and if you aren’t an economist then you can’t eve begin to make meaningful statements about what the impact of this will be. And at the end of the day, it isn’t just a financial decision, but a moral decision about the deaths of possibly a million Americans.

 

[I am stupid]

My takeaway from all of this...

A few weeks before it started getting "bad" in the US my uncle had 2 and 3rd degree burns to about 45% of his body. Hands, arms, chest, face, etc...Was on the vent for several days and didn't know if he would make it. Thankfully he did. Was told he would be in the burn unit for 3 or 4 months. He was out in just a few weeks because they felt he would be safer at home from getting the virus(mainly they may need that area for COVID patients.)

Our local hospital is a ghost town. No confirmed cases yet(but i'm sure we have some). A relative works at hospital but they are down 300 patients compared to normal. Several other hospitals are the same.

My uncles insurance is saving thousands per day being home instead of in a hospital. Thousands and thousands of people are home instead of being in the hospital. So maybe we should evaluate how hospitals are unnecessarily keeping people.

 

[tw3301]

People say all sorts of stuff when running for President.

Remember when Trump said “I know more about ISIS than the generals do, believe me.” and that he would have a plan to defeat ISIS within 30 days of becoming President? And that he himself already had a perfect plan for defeating ISIS, and said that if the generals plan was any good they would carry out a “combination of my plan and the generals' plan."

Or how about when he said “We're gonna repeal (Obamacare), we're gonna replace it, and we're gonna get you great, great health care at a fraction of the cost.”

Or what about when he said "I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I'll build them very inexpensively, I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall.”

Or when he said he would get rid of the national debt “over a period of eight years.”

Heck, even when he said "I would not be a president who took vacations. I would not be a president that takes time off,” and “I’m not going to have time to go play golf.”

Everyone makes nutty promises.

I'm not trying to politicize this, just thought it was funny.

 

[GE Nole]

Yeah, yeah..Hospitals were turning people away...telling people not to come, etc, etc...No its not as this could have been. But then again, who knows? It's a virus that literally doesn't affect 80+% of the country. It has a 95% survival rate. But sure. Send the country into a depression...17 million are unemployed..Millioms more to follow. A company that list 4 million small business as members, reported that 82% face closure.
At the end of the day, the "cure" will far outweigh the virus.

I don’t know what you’re talking about “doesn’t affect 80+% of the country” but that doesn’t seem accurate at all.

But as to people losing jobs, it’s pretty sad that a month of reduced hours and some closures has tanked so many businesses and jobs. Just another reminder that most people have no clue what it means to live within their means or run an efficient business. These major corporations needing bailouts from tax payers—ONCE AGAIN—should have been adding cash reserves during the boom of the last 6 years instead of doing massive share buybacks and bonuses for CEOs.

Businesses aren’t letting people go because of a virus. They are doing it because they were not well prepared for a rainy day.

 

[tw3301]

I'm not reading all of this so maybe it's been covered but has anyone talked about how flue deaths are being counted as covid deaths? Pneumonia too.

This seems weird.

 

[coryfly]

I'm not reading all of this so maybe it's been covered but has anyone talked about how flue deaths are being counted as covid deaths? Pneumonia too.

This seems weird.

I've seen it both ways, where people have said that but also some have said that if they don't technically test and diagnose someone then they won't list the death as Covid even if they think it was. If that is the case it would probably balance itself.

However, in a normal year if someone dies of something and had the flu it is often counted as a flu death so this sort of thing isn't abnormal anyway. But with the demographics dying the most it would definitely seem reasonable that some who die of this would have died of pneumonia or something as well, though maybe down the line a little more.

Here in Tennessee we did have a case where 100 people at a nursing home got it and 14 have died already in just a couple of weeks. That is pretty wild and shows how devastating it can be in those populations.

 

[tw3301]

I've seen it both ways, where people have said that but also some have said that if they don't technically test and diagnose someone then they won't list the death as Covid even if they think it was. If that is the case it would probably balance itself.

However, in a normal year if someone dies of something and had the flu it is often counted as a flu death so this sort of thing isn't abnormal anyway. But with the demographics dying the most it would definitely seem reasonable that some who die of this would have died of pneumonia or something as well, though maybe down the line a little more.

Here in Tennessee we did have a case where 100 people at a nursing home got it and 14 have died already in just a couple of weeks. That is pretty wild and shows how devastating it can be in those populations.

Yes how devestating it would have been to elderly people.

Imagine you run an authoritative government like China... How beneficial would a disease that targets elderly "non-contributers" have been to your regime?

Skewing the numbers still doesn't make sense to me. Maybe there's an asteroid heading to earth or something, would be a pretty good excuse to keep everyone inside.

 

[tw3301]

I've seen it both ways, where people have said that but also some have said that if they don't technically test and diagnose someone then they won't list the death as Covid even if they think it was. If that is the case it would probably balance itself.

However, in a normal year if someone dies of something and had the flu it is often counted as a flu death so this sort of thing isn't abnormal anyway. But with the demographics dying the most it would definitely seem reasonable that some who die of this would have died of pneumonia or something as well, though maybe down the line a little more.

Here in Tennessee we did have a case where 100 people at a nursing home got it and 14 have died already in just a couple of weeks. That is pretty wild and shows how devastating it can be in those populations.

It kind of is abnormal because there are no flue deaths since this whole covid thing.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

The sad reality is that people need to die.

Hopefully you aren't volunteering or threatening others with this.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Millions and millions of families are being affected by our plan to fight this thing.

I am interested in hearing from the dead people and how the virus affected them. Nobody ever interviews them.

 

[coryfly]

It kind of is abnormal because there are no flue deaths since this whole covid thing.

None at all? How would you even go about finding that information?

There should definitely be considerably less though for several reasons.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

The last time I went to a grocery store, practically everybody was wearing a mask.

Saw this guy in the fruit section today.