Kentucky vs. Duke in November. Who wins and why?

[Rhavicc]

PJ Washington is not a good rebounder. Every big on Duke was rebounding at a higher rate per minute than Washington last year (Bagley, Carter, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrankovic, White). Also, Bolden and DeLaurier rebound at a higher rate (Jack White, too) than Reid Travis... Kentucky will have advantages over Duke, I'm not disputing that. But I don't believe rebounding is one of those areas.

Couple of things I want to point out:

1. PJ Washington played a pretty good chunk of the 2nd half of the season with a broken finger, so that didn't do him any favors.

2. Bolden, DeLaurier, Vrankovic, and White were hardly on the floor long enough to draw any kind of substantial statistical analysis from. Advanced statistics are all well and good, but how a person can conceivably determine that two players that will play on next year's roster, but only played 5 and 6 minutes per game, and didn't average over 1.5 rebounds a piece, are better rebounders than a guy that averaged 6 rebounds in 27 minutes (and 7.2 rebounds over the last 10 games of the season, in 29 minutes per game) from the power forward position, I'm not a fan of.

At the very least, I question Bolden's ability to even stay on the floor. Every time I've ever seen him, he slogs around, seems incredibly out of shape, and just doesn't seem like the sharpest basketball mind.

EDIT: Reid Travis also averaged 11.2 rebounds per game over the last 10 games at Stanford, and had 12.4 rebounds per game over his last 7.

I would take the proven production of Travis and Washington over the projected production of the Duke bigs.

Who has more muscle than Zion on UK? That being said UK probably wins this early in the season.

Reid Travis. Zion is a big dude. Bit of a lardo though, which is fine. If I could jump that high while being 265 pounds, I would keep that weight too. That's not indicative of strength though. Travis is a bull though. Not that it matters a ton, they'll rarely go against one another. I figure Washington will be the dude against Williamson, but Washington is also a bull inside. It's going to be a very, very physical game.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Who has more muscle than Zion on UK? That being said UK probably wins this early in the season.

I'd put Brad Calipari's calves up against anyone.

*not shown here*

*but here*

 

[dukedevilz]

Please stop saying that.

Or take an elementary statistics class.

Either one.

Hate to break it to you, but 5.7 rebounds in 27.4 minutes is not good for a big man. Heck, Theo Pinson was playing guard for a good chunk of the latter season and he was rebounding at a higher rate.

I am focusing on a single stat, mind you. I never said the Duke bigs were better. I'm simply saying they're better rebounders. If DeLaurier ever averages 30+ minutes, I can promise you he will average 10+ boards. Dude is ferocious on the glass and defense. But his offense is very limited.

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

I'd put Brad Calipari's calves up against anyone.

*not shown here*

*but here*

You would suck his dick, wouldn't you?

 

[lurkeraspect84]

You would suck his dick, wouldn't you?

Depends if he's circumcised or not. No one likes smegma.

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

PJ Washington is not a good rebounder. Every big on Duke was rebounding at a higher rate per minute than Washington last year (Bagley, Carter, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrankovic, White). Also, Bolden and DeLaurier rebound at a higher rate (Jack White, too) than Reid Travis... Kentucky will have advantages over Duke, I'm not disputing that. But I don't believe rebounding is one of those areas.

As a team Duke's RPG was 41 UK's 39. You won't have Bagley and Carter which accounted for most of the rebounding. They accounted for about half of Duke's rebounding. Rebounding rate per game doesn't equate to rebounding per game. Duke has around 30 rebounds a game to make up for due to the loss of rebounders.

 

[tw3301]

I'd put Brad Calipari's calves up against anyone.

*not shown here*

*but here*

Weird that you have a shirtless photo of Brad Calipari so easily available.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

As a team Duke's RPG was 41 UK's 39. You won't have Bagley and Carter which accounted for most of the rebounding. They accounted for about half of Duke's rebounding. Rebounding rate per game doesn't equate to rebounding per game. Duke has around 30 rebounds a game to make up for due to the loss of rebounders.

I read so much I can't find everything, but wasn't Reid's offensive rebound % outstanding?

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Weird that you have a shirtless photo of Brad Calipari so easily available.

I know right. The internet man. Shit's crazy.

 

[tw3301]

As a team Duke's RPG was 41 UK's 39. You won't have Bagley and Carter which accounted for most of the rebounding. They accounted for about half of Duke's rebounding. Rebounding rate per game doesn't equate to rebounding per game. Duke has around 30 rebounds a game to make up for due to the loss of rebounders.

Jokes on you, hard for Duke to get rebounds when they let the other team score at will.

 

[Rhavicc]

Jokes on you, hard for Duke to get rebounds when they let the other team score at will.

Rebounding aside, this is going to be the difficult part of Duke's bigs going against UK's in this particular game this early on.

Washington and Travis both have pretty smooth low-post moves, both finish exceptionally well through contact (I want to say Travis had the most and-one finishes of any big man in the country, and I had read somewhere that Washington was very high up in that same category). Both players were regularly double and triple-teamed last season, both draw a shit-ton of fouls.

Travis averaged 7 FT attempts per game last year, and Washingon averaged 5.7 (which grew to 6.5 over his last 10 games, when he finally started getting into a groove, playing well, and adjusting to his broken ass finger). Travis and Washington are going to score a lot of points, and draw a ton of fouls next season. Teams that lack quality depth in the post will likely struggle.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Rebounding aside, this is going to be the difficult part of Duke's bigs going against UK's in this particular game this early on.

Washington and Travis both have pretty smooth low-post moves, both finish exceptionally well through contact (I want to say Travis had the most and-one finishes of any big man in the country, and I had read somewhere that Washington was very high up in that same category). Both players were regularly double and triple-teamed last season, both draw a shit-ton of fouls.

Travis averaged 7 FT attempts per game last year, and Washingon averaged 5.7 (which grew to 6.5 over his last 10 games, when he finally started getting into a groove, playing well, and adjusting to his broken ass finger). Travis and Washington are going to score a lot of points, and draw a ton of fouls next season. Teams that lack quality depth in the post will likely struggle.

There's nothing worse than having your ass finger broken. The others aren't the same.

 

[dukedevilz]

As a team Duke's RPG was 41 UK's 39. You won't have Bagley and Carter which accounted for most of the rebounding. They accounted for about half of Duke's rebounding. Rebounding rate per game doesn't equate to rebounding per game. Duke has around 30 rebounds a game to make up for due to the loss of rebounders.

Duke had 3 more rebounds a game than Kentucky if you account for the rebounding margin, which is really the only meaningful number. Obviously those numbers mean next to nothing as the roster turnover is outrageously high on both sides. Kentucky was scary long last year, though; they certainly benefited a lot from having SGA and Gabriel in the lineup (and Vanderbilt when healthy). And Kentucky is losing 70% of their rebounding.

But the point I'm making, is still true. Washington is not a good rebounder, he's very below average. Reid Travis a good rebounder, but he's note elite. I don't believe Travis and Washington compliment each other very well. That's my point. They don't rebound extremely well, they're not off the chart shooters, and they don't extend a defense like the prototypical stretch 4... Take a look at the top rebounding percentages in the ACC last year (you will note that this doesn't include bench guys like DeLaurier and Sterling Manley who didn't earn enough minutes):

1. Doral Moore Wake Forest 21.0
2. Elijah Thomas Clemson 18.8
3. Martinas Geben Notre Dame 18.4
4. Wendell Carter Jr. Duke 18.4
5. Marvin Bagley III Duke 17.9
6. Raymond Spalding Louisville 17.3
7. Luke Maye UNC 16.7
8. Omer Yurtseven North Carolina State 16.0
9. Chris Clarke Virginia Tech 15.5
10. Dewan Huell Miami (FL) 15.1

Reid Travis was at 14.3%

Are these statistics elementary enough for you, @Hank_ ?

 

[Hank_]

If DeLaurier ever averages 30+ minutes, I can promise you he will average 10+ boards. Dude is ferocious on the glass and defense.

The number of Duke players that have averaged 10+ RPG in the last twenty years is a really, really short list.

 

[treyforuk]

Kentucky......because.

 

[Hank_]

Duke had 3 more rebounds a game than Kentucky if you account for the rebounding margin, which is really the only meaningful number. Obviously those numbers mean next to nothing as the roster turnover is outrageously high on both sides. Kentucky was scary long last year, though; they certainly benefited a lot from having SGA and Gabriel in the lineup (and Vanderbilt when healthy). And Kentucky is losing 70% of their rebounding.

But the point I'm making, is still true. Washington is not a good rebounder, he's very below average. Reid Travis a good rebounder, but he's note elite. I don't believe Travis and Washington compliment each other very well. That's my point. They don't rebound extremely well, they're not off the chart shooters, and they don't extend a defense like the prototypical stretch 4... Take a look at the top rebounding percentages in the ACC last year (you will note that this doesn't include bench guys like DeLaurier and Sterling Manley who didn't earn enough minutes):

1. Doral Moore Wake Forest 21.0
2. Elijah Thomas Clemson 18.8
3. Martinas Geben Notre Dame 18.4
4. Wendell Carter Jr. Duke 18.4
5. Marvin Bagley III Duke 17.9
6. Raymond Spalding Louisville 17.3
7. Luke Maye UNC 16.7
8. Omer Yurtseven North Carolina State 16.0
9. Chris Clarke Virginia Tech 15.5
10. Dewan Huell Miami (FL) 15.1

Reid Travis was at 14.3%

Are these statistics elementary enough for you, @Hank_ ?

Dude, you literally just tried to tell people Jack White - who averaged 5 minutes per game last year - is a better rebounder than PJ Washington because of “stats”.

 

[dukedevilz]

Dude, you literally just tried to tell people Jack White - who averaged 5 minutes per game last year - is a better rebounder than PJ Washington because of “stats”.

No. obviously you can't take a whole lot of information from 5 minutes per game. My point was that EVERY Duke big was rebounding at a higher margin... Washington's rebounding would be more credible if it easier to find a few bigs here and there who couldn't quite rebound up to his standard, but a rebounding percentage of 11.6% is bush league. It doesn't matter if you're comparing starters or bench players, that percentage isn't going to hold up against many players.

 

[mebeblue2]

Who has more muscle than Zion on UK? That being said UK probably wins this early in the season.

we talking muscle or baby fat?
not to mention he is barley 6'5"
i have to admit to be as chunky as he is a athletic freak
if he can keep his weight down and develop any kind of a outside shot his ceiling would have no limit

 

[tw3301]

I love how Zion was the second coming of Christ before he committed to Duke, now he's a fatty.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

No. obviously you can't take a whole lot of information from 5 minutes per game. My point was that EVERY Duke big was rebounding at a higher margin... Washington's rebounding would be more credible if it easier to find a few bigs here and there who couldn't quite rebound up to his standard, but a rebounding percentage of 11.6% is bush league. It doesn't matter if you're comparing starters or bench players, that percentage isn't going to hold up against many players.

Do you think OAD players can improve? I've heard of "Sophomore slump". Also read that if OAD players return, then they're bums due to coaching. ie Bolden.

edit: making a joke with Bolden, but i hope you get the...joke. It's crazy how if 5 star players return/don't get drafted it's not "normal". It's someone's fault. Gotta be a "fault" right? mini rant over.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

I just want to watch Zion in a wide open fast break

#metoo

Very few outstanding dunkers on a national stage. I'm only rooting for him slightly less due to the D and E.

The student in me wants to see him carve space in rebounding and post up's, but the fan in me wants to see some crazy high flying dunking shit. Take me back Spud.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

I love how Zion was the second coming of Christ before he committed to Duke, now he's a fatty.

Did he gain weight at Duke? UK has a personal chef. I could see gaining weight experiencing luxury. Some ain't used to it.

 

[Mac9192]

Did he gain weight at Duke? UK has a personal chef. I could see gaining weight experiencing luxury. Some ain't used to it.

Some Kentucky fans down playing Zion about as funny as Duke fans knocking Knox once Duke got Bagley. I would have much rather had Knox in place of Bagley. Not a popular opinion though.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Some Kentucky fans down playing Zion about as funny as Duke fans knocking Knox once Duke got Bagley. I would have much rather had Knox in place of Bagley. Not a popular opinion though.

Good thing we're not judged by likes.

 

[mebeblue2]

I love how Zion was the second coming of Christ before he committed to Duke, now he's a fatty.

are you saying he is not chunky with a lot of baby fat?

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

Some Kentucky fans down playing Zion about as funny as Duke fans knocking Knox once Duke got Bagley. I would have much rather had Knox in place of Bagley. Not a popular opinion though.

Yeah. Definitely not a popular opinion. Would not have been upset had Knox chose Duke though.

 

[tw3301]

are you saying he is not chunky with a lot of baby fat?

I'm not sure I'd call him chunky. He's a big boy, haven't seen a lot of 6' 5" fat guys throwing down windmill dunks.

 

[mebeblue2]

I'm not sure I'd call him chunky. He's a big boy, haven't seen a lot of 6' 5" fat guys throwing down windmill dunks.

so you think when he was 280 that it was all muscle
like i said, he is an athletic freak
could you imagine him at around 245 with a low body fat percentage
dude could pick quarters off the top of the backboard

 

[lurkeraspect84]

I'm not sure I'd call him chunky. He's a big boy, haven't seen a lot of 6' 5" fat guys throwing down windmill dunks.

We'll revisit this after the UK game.

 

[tw3301]

We'll revisit this after the UK game.

Are you saying UK has a bunch of 6' 5" fat guys that are going to windmill dunk on Duke?

 

[Rhavicc]

Are you saying UK has a bunch of 6' 5" fat guys that are going to windmill dunk on Duke?

UK doesn’t have a lot of 6’5 fat guys lol. None, actually. The dude is talented, he’s hyper athletic, but he is fat. I’m not sure why that’s so hard to accept.

 

[AWilli6995]

Who has more muscle than Zion on UK? That being said UK probably wins this early in the season.

That doesn’t mean anything. Dude is 6’6. UK’s frontline is bigger and deeper.

 

[AWilli6995]

I love how Zion was the second coming of Christ before he committed to Duke, now he's a fatty.

Don’t know who said that but I will say his highlights were good. The last 6’6 power forward who made any noise was Larry Johnson. I’m not ready to compare Zion to LJ just yet.

 

[brooky03]

I'd put Brad Calipari's calves up against anyone.

*not shown here*

*but here*

kewl tats

 

[dukedevilz]

Don’t know who said that but I will say his highlights were good. The last 6’6 power forward who made any noise was Larry Johnson. I’m not ready to compare Zion to LJ just yet.

How about Bonzie Colson or Melvin Ejim? They weren't quite up to the standard of a Larry Johnson, but they were both All-Americans.

 

[AWilli6995]

How about Bonzie Colson or Melvin Ejim? They weren't quite up to the standard of a Larry Johnson, but they were both All-Americans.

LJ was a All-American too who dominated at the college and pro level till injuries took over. I’m not hating on Zion one bit but he still has to prove himself.

 

[dukedevilz]

LJ was a All-American too who dominated at the college and pro level till injuries took over. I’m not hating on Zion one bit but he still has to prove himself.

Ohh... Well, Zion has proved himself. Dude was like 1st Team All-Mixtape three years in a row.

 

[treyforuk]

Charles Barkley says hold my sammich.

 

[Quavarius]

As a team Duke's RPG was 41 UK's 39. You won't have Bagley and Carter which accounted for most of the rebounding. They accounted for about half of Duke's rebounding. Rebounding rate per game doesn't equate to rebounding per game. Duke has around 30 rebounds a game to make up for due to the loss of rebounders.

I remember when UK fans laughed at a front court of Marshall Plumlee and Amile Jefferson because we lost Okafor and Winslow the previous year. I think Plumlee had like 10 rebounds and Amile had like 16 in that game.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Ohh... Well, Zion has proved himself. Dude was like 1st Team All-Mixtape three years in a row.

Let's just hope he didn't miss his calling for an And one Episode. Surely he'll make more money. *fingers crossed*