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UVA!!!

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Damn! That’s a heartbreaker game winner!!!

Especially since the guy who made the shot was called for a foul on a 3 point shooter up 2 just a few seconds before. A 63% FT shooter makes all 3 for them but it still didn't matter.
 
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Two things about UNC this year.

1. They really suck, especially in clutch situations.

2. They have been really unlucky as well, though I would rather have that happen this year than when they are actually decent.

It is always interesting to see how they will blow it from game to game though.
 
Yeah, less talented and so bad in the clutch and so dumb in so many ways that you could maybe say that. They don't do what they are taught to do and even when they do they F it up somehow.
 
You can't spell 'Anti-Clutch' without U-N-C.

For reals though, how many games have they lost in the final minute or two?
 
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You can't spell 'Anti-Clutch' without U-N-C.

For reals though, how many games have they lost in the final minute or two?

A lot. I think they have lost 3 ACC games at the buzzer and 2 more in the last twenty seconds. That's what I mean. Even with them crapping the bed think about all the somewhat lucky things that went right for Duke, or the fact that none of these teams have missed any of these shots at the buzzer. I mean, players miss shots in warmups but everyone has been made against UNC this year. That isn't taking anything away from any of those teams as well either. I don't mean it like that. Collectively though they have been very unlucky. They have lost 4 one possession games at home this year. Since 2010 they had lost 5 total coming into this year. There is always luck involved. Often times they have benefited from it.

OTOH, they have been blitzed enough to show they are overall just a bad team as well though.
 
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A lot. I think they have lost 3 ACC games at the buzzer and 2 more in the last twenty seconds. That's what I mean. Even with them crapping the bed think about all the somewhat lucky things that went right for Duke, or the fact that none of these teams have missed any of these shots at the buzzer. I mean, players miss shots in warmups but everyone has been made against UNC this year. That isn't taking anything away from any of those teams as well either. I don't mean it like that. Collectively though they have been very unlucky. They have lost 4 one possession games at home this year. Since 2010 they had lost 5 total coming into this year. There is always luck involved. Often times they have benefited from it.

OTOH, they have been blitzed enough to show they are overall just a bad team as well though.
A team that can't shoot hitting almost everything they threw up against Duke was pretty lucky, the ending not so much. Also Tre Jones technically missed one of his buzzer beaters.
 
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tw3301 said:





coryfly said:





A lot. I think they have lost 3 ACC games at the buzzer and 2 more in the last twenty seconds. That's what I mean. Even with them crapping the bed think about all the somewhat lucky things that went right for Duke, or the fact that none of these teams have missed any of these shots at the buzzer. I mean, players miss shots in warmups but everyone has been made against UNC this year. That isn't taking anything away from any of those teams as well either. I don't mean it like that. Collectively though they have been very unlucky. They have lost 4 one possession games at home this year. Since 2010 they had lost 5 total coming into this year. There is always luck involved. Often times they have benefited from it.

OTOH, they have been blitzed enough to show they are overall just a bad team as well though.

A team that can't shoot hitting almost everything they threw up against Duke was pretty lucky, the ending not so much. Also Tre Jones technically missed one of his buzzer beaters.

He also shot an air ball that was in the perfect spot to win the game and had two perfect misses of FTs. If he just doesn’t miss that one so terribly that doesn’t happen. Missing 17 FTs or whatever it was isn’t hitting almost everything they threw up. But yes, UNC hit more open looks than usual. No doubt. The point is that almost every buzzer beater has gone in and almost every bounce late has gone against them and the odds are against that. Sometimes it breaks that way. Usually it is more split though. They had a lot of good breaks late in games in the NCAAT a couple of years ago so I’m certainly not saying they don’t have their share of luck.
 
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A team that can't shoot hitting almost everything they threw up against Duke was pretty lucky, the ending not so much. Also Tre Jones technically missed one of his buzzer beaters.

Yep. The fact that they had 4 guys collapsing on Tre Jones was more telling. Not only did Wendell Moore have an uncontested layup from the left, Alex O'Connell would have had a wide open put-back from the right side. Terrible job of boxing out. That was poor defense more than bad luck.
 
tw3301 said:





A team that can't shoot hitting almost everything they threw up against Duke was pretty lucky, the ending not so much. Also Tre Jones technically missed one of his buzzer beaters.

Yep. The fact that they had 4 guys collapsing on Tre Jones was more telling. Not only did Wendell Moore have an uncontested layup from the left, Alex O'Connell would have had a wide open put-back from the right side. Terrible job of boxing out. That was poor defense more than bad luck.
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The fact that he air balled it instead of drawing even a little rim is pretty unlucky. That doesn’t even account for the missed FTs bouncing perfectly and balls bouncing the right way for them in general. It doesn’t make UNC any less crappy or Duke any less worthy. You all are missing the point here anyway.
 
I was just having a little fun with the "lucky" thing, not looking for any serious analysis on it.
 
I was just having a little fun with the "lucky" thing, not looking for any serious analysis on it.

I'm not having fun with the 'lucky' thing. I think I would rather them just get smashed every game. I'm still enjoying the season though. It's still college bball.
 
The fact that he air balled it instead of drawing even a little rim is pretty unlucky. That doesn’t even account for the missed FTs bouncing perfectly and balls bouncing the right way for them in general. It doesn’t make UNC any less crappy or Duke any less worthy. You all are missing the point here anyway.

I agree that Carolina was generally unlucky in the game. And overall, as you say, that doesn't negate the fact that they've been significantly below their typical standards.

I can't chalk up the last play to being unlucky, however. I understand the need to stop the dribble-drive; just think it's poor defense when you have your entire defense collapse on the ball-handler. Tre easily could have lobbed it to Moore or O'Connell. As it was, Keeling and Anthony both failed to box-out. Sure, the air-ball helped Wendell, because it was essentially a pass. But, Moore and O'Connell both had the inside track for a putback lay-in or tip.

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But the chances of there being time left for tip-in is very small unless the ball bounces absolutely perfectly. Probably a 95% chance if it hits the rim that the game goes into another OT. So Tre missing a shot so terribly, possibly because of the contest, is pretty unlucky. That was probably the only miss that gives Duke the win there (until UNC jacked it up in the second OT at least). I feel like you are overthinking it and I have no idea why.

But it's all good. They suck whether they are lucky or unlucky. It would still only make a difference of maybe 3 or 4 games in the standings. They still would be one of the worst UNC teams ever.
 
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Isn't there a stat out there that measure's luck?

#322 out of #353

UNC is least talented, poorly coached and has bad luck.
 
But the chances of there being time left for tip-in is very small unless the ball bounces absolutely perfectly. Probably a 95% chance if it hits the rim that the game goes into another OT. So Tre missing a shot so terribly, possibly because of the contest, is pretty unlucky. That was probably the only miss that gives Duke the win there (until UNC jacked it up in the second OT at least). I feel like you are overthinking it and I have no idea why.

But it's all good. They suck whether they are lucky or unlucky. It would still only make a difference of maybe 3 or 4 games in the standings. They still would be one of the worst UNC teams ever.

The ball would have hit the rim with roughly 1 second left. Plenty of time for a tip or lay-in. The only realistic chance of it going to overtime is if the ball would have gone long. JMO.
 
The ball would have hit the rim with roughly 1 second left. Plenty of time for a tip or lay-in. The only realistic chance of it going to overtime is if the ball would have gone long. JMO.

If it hits rim it is extremely likely it goes into OT. While that just inevitably puts off the heartbreak that's coming it is still what would happened.
 
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