Would be an interesting study of the difference of positions between preseason and post season between AP, coaches poll, and services like KP.
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Now that we are not likely to get any more reinforcements, this is my best guess at our starting lineup and rotation. Would actually have been hopefull for this teams chances if Parker Fox didn't get injured and we were able to get a solid Center that can rebound and protect the rim. As it stands now, this team is going to get out rebounded alot and will struggle with interior defense.
Starters
Peyton Willis
Luke Loewe
EJ Stephens
Jamison Battle
Treyton Thompson/Eric Curry
Bench
G Abdoulaye Thiam
W Sean Sutherlin
PF Danny Ogele
C Charlie Daniels (Not the fiddler)
Injured
PF Parker Fox (may return second half)
PF Isaiah Ihnen (out for season)
Starters
Peyton Willis
Luke Loewe
EJ Stephens
Jamison Battle
Treyton Thompson/Eric Curry
Bench
G Abdoulaye Thiam
W Sean Sutherlin
PF Danny Ogele
C Charlie Daniels (Not the fiddler)
Injured
PF Parker Fox (may return second half)
PF Isaiah Ihnen (out for season)
Is Eric Curry going for the record of how many times he can injure a knee. Throw the damn towel already.
He got knee transplants this off-season.
The only thing that looking at where you finished vs what someone predicted you'd do examines is that person's ability to predict. It is not a measure of under/overperformance. I'm not in control of the overzealous portion of our fanbase that wants to make inane arguments.
He is the one that applauded 5 year won loss records of coaches as a indicator of coaching ability without looking at the rosters these coaches inherited…..talks out of both sides of his mouth…
Wouldn't that also just be someone's opinion? I mean Team X returns 3 starters, 2 subs, off a 18-14 team...Brings in a Top 20 class....No injuries. Team X wins 23 games...loses in 1st round. My opinion could be that 5 more wins is underachieving---your opinion could be they overachieved....someone else's could be they finished about where they should...
THing is---what are we comparing it to? Last year? Preseason rankings? Or just simply off talent, exp, etc, etc...?? Which has huge flaws in itself...
Are you trying to make a point? It’s not clear to me.
If the writers said Michigan was first and Juwan has the exact same season, that’s underperforming all of a sudden. The dependent variable is the opinion. By definition, you’re not measuring the performance; you’re measuring the ability to predict. Arguing otherwise makes no sense.
You're a confusing little Illini,.....You said using preseason polls is useless in determining if a coach has under/over achieved...You said those are uninformed opinions, from uninformed people, i.e. media,analyst, and of course coaches....So it was asked,what other way is there. You then say, "predictive models". Which is odd, sense you downplayed KenPom...Or at best, you totally ignored Hails post , using KenPom as an example...
Its even a bit more odd that you shrug off preseason rankings, when saying this.
Jaycg15 said:
We are the Big Ten version of Texas except that Texas underperforms expectations, and when we are ranked preseason, we finish ranked.
I know, I know---you were "trolling" Bufrod. Yeah, ok. Thing is, ya gotta be careful what you spew on here....It has a way of finding its way home...
So can you make up your mind----Preseason rankings? KenPom? Yes----No? Maybe we could get NASA involved?
I did read what you wrote...You are all over the planet, bro... So i will just ask...How do you determine if a coach has overachieved, or underachieved?
Of course. But you’d have a hell of a lot more information at your disposal to make that opinion.
But what are you comparing that information to? The prior year? If so, that leave a ton of room for error. Of the three returning starters---two could have improved, whle the other did not...Your Top 20 class may not have been as good as advertised. Your returning subs, who were projected to help---may not have. And of course, vice versa----Returnee's could have improved exponentially....Top 20 class was much better than expected....Your subs from a year ago improved drastically...
So , I mean, its all lumped into predictions, TBH...So whats the difference? If Team A was 29-5,went to the Elite 8, returns 4 starters,and has an expected solid class coming in----isn't their gonna be expectations? Of course. And why? Well b/c of the prior year....Which is also a ton of information , at your disposal, to make an opinion...
Expectations have forever been based on prior seasons. But suddenly, now they are not?
Huh?
Bro, what? I mean you used Illionis being ranked in the preseason, ending being ranked as an argument----then argued that preseason rankings are stupid, and a bad tool. Then said you were just trolling----Sure.
You never answered Hail on UM being preseason 21st in KenPom, then finishing 16th. Yet you argue with, predictive models...
Just wondering fella....You seem lost.
Maybe it’s just me but I’d like to make my imperfect analysis with as much info as possible.
“Bro”
I said predictive models were the best we have when comparing preseason predictions vs actual performance just two posts up. I said that using preseason rankings is worthless. What’s so hard to understand about my position?
You seem lost.
I can’t believe someone is arguing against this, yet here we are.
While I’m not saying you’re wrong because preseason top 25s do suck, do you have a study on this? If you went back 10 years and compared ESPN’s preseason top 25 vs Kenpom’s preseason top 25 vs finishing positions do you think they are that far apart?
But you guys are arguing two different things. You are arguing that preseason predictive models are best. Boilerzz is saying anything in the preseason sucks.
I don’t have a study, but I’m fairly confident that KenPom’s model is going to be more accurate than Joe Blow’s best guess. There are people voting on those polls that have no idea about anything outside of a handful of teams.
Him: Only end of season evaluation is best to determine if a team underachieved. everything in the preseason is worthless.
You: Preseason kenpom predictions are best to determine if a team underachieved.
You don’t see those as conflicting statements? You almost convinced me you weren’t rolling.
Me:
You’re putting words in my mouth. That’s the best we have in that scenario; it’s not the best we have overall.
Also, I never said anything about “any Joe Blow”. I doubt someone will who combines computer models with human insight is much different overall than straight up using Kenpom.
I’m calling sports writers that vote Joe Blow because the majority of them don’t have models. They’re predominately sports writers, not statisticians, and dd is an amateur statistician.
“You might be surprised to hear this, but I’m a big fan of the pre-season AP poll. There is no doubt poll participants have their biases in the pre-season. They may tend to over-estimate the importance of the previous postseason, especially when a team needed more than its fair share of luck to advance. But otherwise, whatever biases are present are uniquely individual, and in the collection of 70 or so ballots, those biases are cancelled out, leaving a useful signal. The end result is that it provides a better picture of the state of college hoops before the season begins than any single person or algorithm could produce. It’s informed groupthink at its finest.” - Ken Pomeroy
Well this is awkward.
Look, idgaf to get in an inane Hail argument. If you like using semi-informed opinions as the basis of your feelings, you and Borden can go for it.
But that’s not who I cited. There are usually a couple writers for ESPN/Sport Illustrated/CBS who are dedicated to predominately college basketball. I’m guessing they use computer models in their preseason assessments.
You act like the alternatives are fool proof, which is inane in its own right. That’s if you can actually settle on a method for comparing under/over achieving.
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