No, I did not say anything about anything being foolproof. You can quit trying to win arguments by putting words in peoples' mouths at any point.
****Official B1G Off Season Thread****
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Definition of underachiever:
-one that fails to attain a predicted level of achievement or does not do as well as expected.
Definition of underachieve:
-to perform below expectations or achieve less than expected, especially by others.
The prediction/prior expectation aspect is an inherent part of the word underachieving.
“You might be surprised to hear this, but I’m a big fan of the pre-season AP poll. There is no doubt poll participants have their biases in the pre-season. They may tend to over-estimate the importance of the previous postseason, especially when a team needed more than its fair share of luck to advance. But otherwise, whatever biases are present are uniquely individual, and in the collection of 70 or so ballots, those biases are cancelled out, leaving a useful signal. The end result is that it provides a better picture of the state of college hoops before the season begins than any single person or algorithm could produce. It’s informed groupthink at its finest.” - Ken Pomeroy
Some Joe Blow's are better than average.
If you look at my preseason rankings and KenPom's preseason, and then compare it to the final KenPom standings, I actually hit the mark better than he did. I was closer on 23; he was closer on 21; we tied on 6. And I had a smaller deviation on the misses. I think he's much better at getting depth than I am, though. He did much better in the bottom half of the top 50 than I did.
I was speaking towards guys that rank on feel rather than analytics when it comes to "Joe Blow", as can be seen in other posts in the thread. I've always been complimentary toward your rankings, and through our past discussions, I know what you put into these.Some Joe Blow's are better than average.
If you look at my preseason rankings and KenPom's preseason, and then compare it to the final KenPom standings, I actually hit the mark better than he did. I was closer on 23; he was closer on 21; we tied on 6. And I had a smaller deviation on the misses. I think he's much better at getting depth than I am, though. He did much better in the bottom half of the top 50 than I did.
Why would you imply that anyone thinks it's foolproof? No one has made a remark that would suggest that.
We both agree it’s not fool proof. Glad that’s covered. Thoughts on this:
“You might be surprised to hear this, but I’m a big fan of the pre-season AP poll. There is no doubt poll participants have their biases in the pre-season. They may tend to over-estimate the importance of the previous postseason, especially when a team needed more than its fair share of luck to advance. But otherwise, whatever biases are present are uniquely individual, and in the collection of 70 or so ballots, those biases are cancelled out, leaving a useful signal. The end result is that it provides a better picture of the state of college hoops before the season begins than any single person or algorithm could produce. It’s informed groupthink at its finest.” - Ken Pomeroy
Some Joe Blow's are better than average.
If you look at my preseason rankings and KenPom's preseason, and then compare it to the final KenPom standings, I actually hit the mark better than he did. I was closer on 23; he was closer on 21; we tied on 6. And I had a smaller deviation on the misses. I think he's much better at getting depth than I am, though. He did much better in the bottom half of the top 50 than I did.
Nice work
It essentially echoes what I'm saying about individual polls, but I didn't consider the collective wisdom neutralizing biases.
Yep, and every analysis done using expectations is grossly flawed. So doing that analysis is stupid.
This. I don't get the importance of setting an arbitrary bar to measure people against. When the bar is completely variable and subjective, it makes zero sense to use it as a benchmark. There are much better ways.
One obvious and objective way is to measure observed against the expected outcomes of a model. Outperform the model, and you've overachieved - though that too is a measure of the validity of a model. There are ways to parse that out though.
An informed Joe Blow using an algorithm as a guide and/or comparing multiple algorithms can be just as good as a stand alone algorithm at predictions. See: @dukedevilz
@flight 33
You hear that? Jaycg says based on Kenpom Michigan over achieved in Howard’s first year. Suck it.
Sure, you can think that. But when someone tries to troll by saying that Howard underachieved it’s fair to point out he exceeded preseason model, polls, and/or “expert” expectations. Considering the definitions of underachieve and overachieve.
Yep. The guy who trolled you was stupid. And you let him suck you into his abyss.
Now you're completely misrepresenting my stance. My stance was pro-analytics and that includes people that aren't paid to do it. There are plenty of good amateurs that do analytics, and I've never said otherwise.
But any good college basketball writer for ESPN or SI is going to incorporate analytics. They cite Kenpom a lot these days. It’s not just gut feelings.
The preseason pollsters don’t have KP to rely on at that point in time. It’s a lot of gut feel guys.
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You keep bringing up the AP, and last time I checked something like 90%+ of AP voters are just local newspaper guys. Let’s not pretend that the lion’s share are as informed as the ones you keep using as examples. They are few and far between. That’s who I’ve been referring to - not the fringe.
I brought up the AP because the reactor of the model you suggest is the best available tool literally said he thinks the AP preseason poll is better than any algorithm.
So there’s that.
But what I was referencing in my initial response to flight was stuff like DukeDevilz having Michigan 30th preseason or Jay Bilas having Michigan 42nd preseason (released 2 weeks after Kenpom released his rankings). Those guys are positively looking at models to go with their human element.
Seems Rothstein was at our practice today. These are two names I think folks will get to know better this season. Pikiell has stated he believes this is his best team since he has become our HC.
I've got you guys 6th, right behind Maryland but in the same tier, right now.
He must read the board. I suggested this very thing.
Disagree. Time will tell.
We have taken three of the last four from Purdue, so I know you hope so.
Gonna run it back with you guys to win the B1G. Should get decent odds with all the money being out on UM and the Illini
Purdue will dumptruck Rutgers this year. Johnson and young are huge losses
Probably not as big as 38-1
but having King Kong on yore side wouldn’t hurt.
OT - football related
IDK if this is real but I really really hope this is real
IDK if this is real but I really really hope this is real
I've never wanted something I've seen on the internet to be true more than this and I've bought like 600 different type of dick pills
Are we really sure Purdue is top 3 good? They beat one good team last season and promptly lost to 14 seed North Texas in the tournament. Outside of Ivey, meh.
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