****Official B1G Off Season Thread****
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Hahaha. Were* maybe. Now you’re a program that loses to the mighty Illini.
Underwood has yet to coach his 5th season? Newsworthy.
KenPom states on his blog that by January, the effects of preseason influence diminish completely. The final ratings, which is what we're discussing, have no preseason influence - meaning they only reflect the results from that season.
Bottom line: Indiana won one more game in the tournament, finished 5th in conference, was a lower seed, had worse losses, played a drastically easier schedule (295 vs 59 OOC), and then got boat raced by Kentucky.
Your revisionist's history on that game is quite amusing. There wasn't a single point in that game where UK's win probability was under 58% (IU led by 4 points for 1.5 minutes in the first half and never led again). The game was ranked 2908th in excitement score - meaning there was never a real threat to UK. UK won by a dozen, led by 3 at half and then quickly stretched that to 8. After that, you were never closer than 5 a couple of times. It's funny that you claim foul shooting was the difference. You fouled because of the talent disparity. They shot 20 more fts for a reason.
Illinois had a better team.
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Only a matter of time. That single brain cell is overworked. Have to imagine it wears out soon.
So Jay, do you believe in Kenpom preseason rankings or not? About two weeks ago you tried to use them as a “gotcha” moment with me. Glad I could educate you at that time about how trash they are so you could use your new knowledge in a future argument.
Preason AP Poll will typically yield more accurate projections than KenPom. Even Pomeroy himself has admitted that.
You might be surprised to hear this, but I’m a big fan of the pre-season AP poll. There is no doubt poll participants have their biases in the pre-season. They may tend to over-estimate the importance of the previous postseason, especially when a team needed more than its fair share of luck to advance. But otherwise, whatever biases are present are uniquely individual, and in the collection of 70 or so ballots, those biases are cancelled out, leaving a useful signal. The end result is that it provides a better picture of the state of college hoops before the season begins than any single person or algorithm could produce. It’s informed groupthink at its finest.
While experts naturally try to declare which teams are too high or too low in the polls, I imagine their success is like financial experts trying to pick a winning mutual fund. Some people are going to be right some of the time, but if we tracked such things, I think we’d find that the groupthink found in the polls would be tough to beat by any one person in the long run.
You might be surprised to hear this, but I’m a big fan of the pre-season AP poll. There is no doubt poll participants have their biases in the pre-season. They may tend to over-estimate the importance of the previous postseason, especially when a team needed more than its fair share of luck to advance. But otherwise, whatever biases are present are uniquely individual, and in the collection of 70 or so ballots, those biases are cancelled out, leaving a useful signal. The end result is that it provides a better picture of the state of college hoops before the season begins than any single person or algorithm could produce. It’s informed groupthink at its finest.
While experts naturally try to declare which teams are too high or too low in the polls, I imagine their success is like financial experts trying to pick a winning mutual fund. Some people are going to be right some of the time, but if we tracked such things, I think we’d find that the groupthink found in the polls would be tough to beat by any one person in the long run.
Kenpom doesn’t rate how good a team is / who is better. Illinois had the *more efficient* team
SmokinSmile
What are the odds he becomes a great leader for you guys?
I used their efficiency in conjunction with numerous other factors. I knew you'd chime in if I didn't cover my a55 lol.
Pathetically real excited to watch Purdue play it’s exhibition game tomorrow night on btn+.
Same, also excited just to see the progression of guys like Morton, Newman, Edey, etc. Obviously going to be hard to make much of anything against Uindy tomorrow, but still excited nonetheless.
Yeah he’s supposedly been better than expected. Izzo said he’s the most ready to go freshman he’s had since Gary Harris.
Christie is a nice piece and our best talent but I’m of the opinion in general that this team will go where Tyson Walker takes us. If he struggles to move up a level and we are relying on Hoggard a ton, I think we likely finish like 7th or 8th in the league. But if Walker can come in and run the show, get guys the ball and be the more natural PG we lacked last year, this team is top 25 and I say that with confidence.
To use a Michigan example, we need Walker to be like Mike Smith, not Jaaron Simmons.
I’d argue he was a great talent but I wouldn’t necessarily define him as “college ready” especially coming in. He was kind of raw.
He was more an Uber talent defensively with some great skills but he sometimes struggled to fit within the offense and had a major fouling problem.
If you were going to argue the point, I think Miles Bridges is a better example over JJJ in terms of “college ready”
Dude averaged 11ppg 6rpg 3bpg in 22 minutes and also shot 39% from three.
Wtf are you smoking? Is this the level you guys go to pretend Izzo wasn’t an idiot for benching him? Acting like that wasn’t “college ready”?
No I agree he should have been playing. I’m not disagreeing with that at all. That wasn’t my point. He’s the most raw talented guy we have had IMO.
I watched him play all year. He had high highs and low lows. The learning curve was steep for him and he got better as the year went on. I’m not saying he wasn’t a college ready player, he clearly excelled. But I think the message we got was essentially there was less steep of a learning curve off the bat for Christie.
He came in this summer and is more like an upperclassman than Jaren was in terms of mistakes and running the system, not so much a better basketball player than him. There is a difference.
Lol. You literally said that a freshman who averaged 11/6/3 in 22 minutes wasn’t “College ready”. Dude would’ve been your second best player last season and you might’ve actually made the tournament if you had him.
A freshman putting up 11/6/3 in 22 minutes is college ready. Would’ve been your second best player last season.
Mcquaid: 4 points, 2 assists, 1 rebound per game. College ready per you.
Jaren Jackson: 11 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks per game. Not college ready per you.
Brilliant stuff here.
I don’t disagree with that.
We haven’t seen Christie play yet. He is quite literally referring the the summer/fall how comfortable they fit in and look like they’ve been there in the practice. Jaren was an uber talent who had to get comfortable with college ball and had ups and downs. I’m just saying it doesn’t shock me that Izzo would say he looks more college ready in practice.
You are equating college ready with talented and I’m not and that’s why we’re on different pages.
A player can be more college ready and less talented. You seem to disagree with that.
I also compared McQuaid to Winston and said he was more so and now you twisted it to me saying McQuaid absolutely over Jaren.
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College ready means being able to come in and compete at a college level as a freshman. You acting like Mcquaid was more college ready than Jaren ****ing Jackson is wild.
I wasn’t saying Jaren > Christie. Just saying you don’t have to go all the way back to Harris to get a damn good freshman.
To which you replied that JJ wasn’t college ready 😂. Revisionist history much?
I’m just trying to use college ready in the way Izzo used it, which I think has more to do seamless transition and less to do with being able to be a great player. If you are using that definition, the one you’re applying, Jaren was absolutely ready to be a great player at the next level. But for Jaren, it wasn’t some seamless transition. He had some struggles fit wise while also being a better shot blocker than anyone we have ever had here. Really high highs and also some typical freshman big man struggles.
Christie I think just is having less of those fit kind of struggles and I believe that’s what Izzo is trying to say.
I should have worded it better, I understand how saying JJJ wasn’t college ready sounds ridiculous.
What you are saying makes sense. I'd just ignore those who can't understand it.
Jackson also stepped into an incredible situation for a relatively raw freshman. He was like the last option offensively for that team, and could really just play to his strengths and be selective.
I agree with you on Walker. I think you need him to be really good, as relying on a freshman to be the guy that carries you offensively generally doesn't work out that well. Also, I posted this on our home board lol
Hail hailing. Going to see that stat line about 20 more times.
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