*Official* B1G Off-season Thread
- Thread starter jwardelt
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Its late in the season but betting against the Orioles was pretty much free money.
I've never bet baseball. Seems like it's one of the hardest sports to do. Plus I don't follow it that closely.
It depends on the bettor on what sport is the hardest, but betting baseball is a massive grind. You can't just wing it. Plus you have massive dickheads like Chris "Whiff" Davis who love hitting meaningless home runs when games are decided, but causes money to change hands.
There is just so much randomness in baseball. More than any other sport maybe.
Also, the winning percentage between the best teams and worst teams isn't that wide.
Have you seen the AL this year? The orioles are 59.5 GB of the Red Sox in the AL east. I think week to week baseball is a really random sport but over the whole season I think it is the most predictable. Well as predictable as you can get in sports anyway.
The AL East is a shit show of two great teams, 1 ok team that would be a playoff contender in another division, 1 mediocre team and 1 fvcking trash team with a trash owner who needs to go fvcking die already.
Edit: Did not realize the Rays have been on a roll and are only 7 back. Going to be tough to get that second wildcard, but like I said any other division and they are in.
Calling Toronto mediocre is really generous.
Still can’t believe the O’s signed Cobb this last offseason.
Dan Duquette at his finest. I fvcking loathe that guy. His piss poor performance as GM has set us back a decade and will get Buck fired.
I'm speaking 1) Generally (not outliers) and 2) Relatively (compared to other sports).
The top few teams in baseball are usually around .620 Winning %.
The bottom few teams in baseball are usually around .420 Winning %.
The NFL and NBA blow that gap out of the water.
I read that twice and still can't figure out what this has to do with my point
You said the winning percentages isn't that wide and thats not true. The Al East is a perfect example.
"I'm speaking 1) Generally (not outliers like Boston and Baltimore) and 2) Relatively (compared to other sports).
The top few teams in baseball are usually around .620 Winning %.
The bottom few teams in baseball are usually around .420 Winning %.
The NFL and NBA blow that gap out of the water."
Kansas City is 29th of 30 in MLB with a .347 Winning %. They still win more often than 8 NFL teams and 8 NBA teams did last year. There is a much smaller gap in win % in baseabll than the other two sports.
Honestly bud, why are you letting him into your head like this lol. Its obvious that he's just on a trolling run on a Sunday afternoon. I'm seriously not trying to sound like a sarcastic dick here, but its astonishing how quickly both snu and hail can get you all riled up. I almost feel like there should be a handful of university students here to study this.
Let me clarify the point.
ThreeTwaunMoore said it seems like baseball is harder to bet. I'm saying that in my opinion it's harder to bet because the good teams lose more than good teams in the NBA and NFL and the bad teams win more than bad teams in the NBA and NFL. That is true even if Boston is awesome and Baltimore sucks.
ThreeTwaunMoore said it seems like baseball is harder to bet. I'm saying that in my opinion it's harder to bet because the good teams lose more than good teams in the NBA and NFL and the bad teams win more than bad teams in the NBA and NFL. That is true even if Boston is awesome and Baltimore sucks.
There’s a difference between responding to someone on an Internet forum when they tag you/reply to you than “being in my head.”
I understand that and you've got a point. But, how many times did you try to explain what you meant for him to just ignore what you said?
Just speaking as an innocent bystander, it just seems like a few of you got hooked bad on this one lol
Just difficult to compare. Tom Brady will start every game for the Patriots and Clayton Kershaw cannot start every game for the dodgers. But if it was a playoff series? The elite team in baseball usually comes out on top.
We are going to have to agree to disagree with this. Unlike the NFL and especially the NBA, baseball teams aren't actively trying to tank, which factors into both their losing percentages being abnormally low.
At the end of the day, there is more overall parity top to bottom in baseball than NBA and the NFL.
Also, the NBA playoffs...... by a WIDE margin..... see their top seeds win more series than top seeds in MLB. There are plenty of articles on it, but the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot.
I don’t think he was ignoring it, he just wasn’t understanding it. I really don’t think he was trying to hook anyone as much as he was wanting to thump his chest for himself. But maybe I did get hooked but it’s not something that bothers me as much as you seem to think it does for some reason.
If you (or say a computer model) picked the winner and loser for each game in every sport, you'd get a lot more NBA and NFL picks right than MLB. I don't think that is debatable. Whatever the reason for that is (parity, tanking, etc.) is up for debate, sure.
Again, difficult to compare because you actually have to be a good team to make the playoffs in the MLB whereas you can be trash and make the playoffs as an 8 seed in the nba. But do agree that the MLB has more teams capable of winning the World Series than NBA teams do of winning the championship due to the warriors.
I don't know you at all, so I wouldn't assume I know what you do/dont like. But, I will say that it did seem like it was bothering you that he wasn't understanding what you were trying to say.
I will also say that it seemed like you were pretty clear the first 3 or 4 times you tried to explain it. I'm not saying anyone here is a genius, but I think everyone here is smart enough to understand what you're saying. So, since he kept acting like he didn't hear you, it made me think it was a troll attempt. I agree, I think initially he was doing it to get a "I told you so" out there. But, when he realized it wasn't going to happen he figured he might as well run with it.
I think you are giving him way too much credit. But no, if I let stupid stuff like an online sports forum get in my head then I would have some serious self reflection to do.
I read this from before MLB added a second Wildcard.
"Wild Card teams experienced extraordinary success in the first 17 years of the Division Series, from 1995 to 2011. In 17 years, 68 Division Series were played, of which 34 involved a Wild Card team. By my count, the Wild Card team actually won 18 of those 34 series, 53 percent of the time."
In those 68 division series, the #1 seed played the #4 seed and the 4 seed won 53 percent of the time. That's crazy.
Edit: Slight correction. The Wildcard team use to not be allowed to play the #1 overall seed if they were from the same division so some of those wins were #4 seed vs #2 seed.
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I’ve seen it probably 50+ times, and could still watch it weekly. So damn good
Since the expansion:
AL Wildcard teams are 3-3 vs the #1 seed.
NL Wildcard teams are 3-3 vs the #1 seed.
So since 1995 there have been 46 Division series involving a Wildcard team and the Wildcard team has won 24 of them.
Lol what bum ass stat is that. That stat proves nothing and you fvcking know it.
The MLB playoffs are a crapshoot and that “stat” would support that. There is so much variance in baseball and condensing it into a 5 or 7 game series is going to reflect that.
@bMORE607
It's much easier to pick winners in football.
Let's make a game of it. You pick the straight up winner for every MLB game over the next 10 days. I will match that for NFL games for however many games that is. I'd be utterly shocked if you picked more correct than me and that is with you having a full season of MLB data to reference and me only having a couple weeks of NFL data.
It's much easier to pick winners in football.
Let's make a game of it. You pick the straight up winner for every MLB game over the next 10 days. I will match that for NFL games for however many games that is. I'd be utterly shocked if you picked more correct than me and that is with you having a full season of MLB data to reference and me only having a couple weeks of NFL data.
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