The entire first half of the season, they were playing like a F4 team. They only lost once, to Duke, in the second game of the season... then beat the next 14 teams in a row by 10+ in every single game, including beating UNC and ND (with Bonzie Colson) both by 18, Maryland by 30, and 4 straight games of scoring 100+ points and winning by 40+ (against scrub teams, though).
MSU was #1 KenPom and in the polls for a short period of time, but then something happened at OSU. They got stomped and never seemed to play with the same confidence.
I agree that anything short of a F4 is a failure for MSU this year. Right now, I'm not confident they'll make it that far.
Definitely possible.