Nova, MSU, Duke

[bignish]

I keep hearing there's a lot of parity in college basketball this year but I don't see it. At the end of the day, you know and I know that one of these 3 teams will win it all this year.

Besides the UConn, Villanova and Syracuse (Melo) years, all the past 20 national champions have been teams that were top 3 betting favorites going into The Big Dance.

Anyone disagree?

 

[jhmossy]

One of those teams winning it all doesn't mean there's not parity this year.

 

[rockycard]

I made a similar thread a couple of months ago, I would take these three against the field.

 

[JimboBBN]

Those three still aren’t “great” teams. They’re not an 09 UNC or a 15 UK or Duke. I would take the field over those teams and not think twice about it.

 

[Hank_]

Bruh, two of those teams lost to St. John’s, in February, a team that is barely .500 on the season.

I’ll take the field.

 

[cooljeff]

All 3 look solid but no team is without question. MSU & Nova just are not getting tested on a nightly basis, not that you have to be to win 6 games in a row but it can suggest that you are playing better than you typically are. Duke & MSU have seemed like potentially the most complete teams all year (with AZ on paper) but its not like either is some juggernaut that the rest of the field would have to get lucky to beat.

 

[Mgkcbb]

Would be shocked if MSU or Duke win it.

Replace them with Purdue, Arizona, and Virginia to join Villanova and this thread becomes accurate.

 

[MGC_07]

Would be shocked if MSU or Duke win it.

Replace them with Purdue, Arizona, and Virginia to join Villanova and this thread becomes accurate.

I know you love Kenpom, and MSU and Duke are both above Zona and Purdue in Kenpom. So why would you give them a greater chance

 

[doogie503]

I keep hearing there's a lot of parity in college basketball this year but I don't see it. At the end of the day, you know and I know that one of these 3 teams will win it all this year.

Besides the UConn, Villanova and Syracuse (Melo) years, all the past 20 national champions have been teams that were top 3 betting favorites going into The Big Dance.

Anyone disagree?

Nova plays nobody and has losses to St Johns, Providence and Butler.

Duke has losses to St Johns and Boston College.

MSU is coasting through a really bad B1G.....

Good teams who could win it all, but I'm definitely taking the field over those 3.

 

[Down21]

I know you love Kenpom, and MSU and Duke are both above Zona and Purdue in Kenpom. So why would you give them a greater chance

Don’t worry with the KenPom team rankings for future projections. If you use KenPom for anything, look at teams that are top 20 in both offense and defense. Since he started ranking teams (2002) only one team have been outside of that threshold (2014 UConn).

There’s still two weeks for adjustments, but the teams that fit that mold right now are: Michigan State, Purdue, and Gonzaga. With WVU being right outside (22 in eDef).

 

[coryfly]

I would take the field against any three teams in the nation this year. This year more than most actually.

 

[tw3301]

Don’t worry with the KenPom team rankings for future projections. If you use KenPom for anything, look at teams that are top 20 in both offense and defense. Since he started ranking teams (2002) only one team have been outside of that threshold (2014 UConn).

There’s still two weeks for adjustments, but the teams that fit that mold right now are: Michigan State, Purdue, and Gonzaga. With WVU being right outside (22 in eDef).

Duke 2015 was like 50 or 60ish defense before the tournament. making a run in the tournament helps bring your defense into the top 20.

 

[Big_Blue79]

The beauty and tragedy of college basketball means that some not-great-team will win the title this year, unlike great teams in other years who dealt with better competition (2015, 2008, 2005 come to mind). We've had other down years (2016, 2011), but this is probably the worst I've seen, frankly.

 

[bignish]

Bruh, two of those teams lost to St. John’s, in February, a team that is barely .500 on the season.

I’ll take the field.

Who cares? Teams lose meaningless games during the season; it's college basketball. Some teams just want it more on a particular day in the regular season.

2009 UNC lost to KenPom #74 BC and #55 Maryland during the reg season.

2010 Duke lost to #69 NC State during the reg season.

The field is a terrible bet vs these 3 particular teams. They have the perfect combination of experience, guard play and NBA talent.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

The field is a terrible bet vs these 3 particular teams. They have the perfect combination of experience, guard play and NBA talent.

I'll avatar bet you with me taking the field.
If you're really sure in what you're saying, we can make it for the whole offseason.

 

[JimboBBN]

Who cares? Teams lose meaningless games during the season; it's college basketball. Some teams just want it more on a particular day in the regular season.

2009 UNC lost to KenPom #74 BC and #55 Maryland during the reg season.

2010 Duke lost to #69 NC State during the reg season.

The field is a terrible bet vs these 3 particular teams. They have the perfect combination of experience, guard play and NBA talent.

Yea, I think you're just wrong. The field is always a good bet, unless you're in 2015. UK, Duke, or Wisky would have been a strong group of teams to take. Duke, MSU, and Nova are all pretty good teams, but that's it.

 

[tw3301]

I'll avatar bet you with me taking the field.
If you're really sure in what you're saying, we can make it for the whole offseason.

Nish is a degenerate gambler so if you're into that I'm sure he'll throw $10K at you in a heart beat.

 

[MGC_07]

If you add in Virginia and Texas Tech, is take that group. The field has to be the choice though IMO

 

[bignish]

Those three still aren’t “great” teams. They’re not an 09 UNC or a 15 UK or Duke. I would take the field over those teams and not think twice about it.

You don't need to be great when everyone else is mediocre to terrible.

KU: LOL Bill Self
UVA: no one can create their own shot
Xavier: shittier version of Nova so cannot beat Nova
Ciny: can't score
Purdue: unathletic backcourt with zero NBA talent

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Nish is a degenerate gambler so if you're into that I'm sure he'll throw $10K at you in a heart beat.

We'll see.

 

[MGC_07]

Betting gives all of them combined roughly a 75% chance to win it.

 

[bignish]

Would be shocked if MSU or Duke win it.

Replace them with Purdue, Arizona, and Virginia to join Villanova and this thread becomes accurate.

ARIZONA??? They play zero defense and Miller's doing a terrible job of coaching this year. They're a prime 1st weekend upset candidate.

Purdue has zero potential NBA picks. Even Nova who fits this mold back in 2016 had Hart and Mikal Bridges who scouts thought were NBA level talents in a year or 2.

UVA's low possession basketball strategy will not work in the NCAA tournament when someone like Allonzo Trier, Miles Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Grayson Allen, Keenan Evans, etc. starts hitting **** you shots all over their #1 defense and UVA panics and can't respond.

 

[bignish]

We'll see.

You're on flair bet; I'm taking these 3 teams over the field.

 

[tw3301]

@bignish bringing the heat in this thread. I rarely agree with him because of his Homer status but I applaud his no shits given approach.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

You're on flair bet; I'm taking these 3 teams over the field.

So it's a bet?

Just so you know, I'm going with buddy Calipari. (dogma reference)

How long? The whole offseason? Confirm the bet.

 

[bignish]

Don’t worry with the KenPom team rankings for future projections. If you use KenPom for anything, look at teams that are top 20 in both offense and defense. Since he started ranking teams (2002) only one team have been outside of that threshold (2014 UConn).

There’s still two weeks for adjustments, but the teams that fit that mold right now are: Michigan State, Purdue, and Gonzaga. With WVU being right outside (22 in eDef).

You have to look at who's actually improving on the offensive or defensive end with conference play ending now like @tw3301 pointed out.

For instance, Duke did not like the #42 KenPom defense vs Clemson on Sunday now that its without Bagley and utilizing zone.

 

[bignish]

So it's a bet?

Just so you know, I'm going with buddy Calipari. (dogma reference)

How long? The whole offseason? Confirm the bet.

The whole offseason; I'm down with the bet. I"ll pick an avatar that I hope you"ll start getting comfortable with shortly.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

The whole offseason; I'm down with the bet. I"ll pick an avatar that I hope you"ll start getting comfortable with shortly.

Bet.

Nova, MSU, Duke vs the field.

 

[Hank_]

Who cares? Teams lose meaningless games during the season; it's college basketball. Some teams just want it more on a particular day in the regular season.

2009 UNC lost to KenPom #74 BC and #55 Maryland during the reg season.

2010 Duke lost to #69 NC State during the reg season.

The field is a terrible bet vs these 3 particular teams. They have the perfect combination of experience, guard play and NBA talent.

Some teams just want it more on a particular day in March, too.

All I’m saying is that I don’t think any of these teams are juggernauts. St. John’s probably only cracked the top #100 because of those wins - wasn’t exactly paying attention.

No one in the tourney scares me, and my team isn’t that good.

Hell, I think Arizona or Purdue could be as tough an out as those 3.

 

[bignish]

To be clear, I see Michigan State as somewhat of a clear favorite. They're clearly sleepwalking through the B1G right now and could potentially steamroll through the NCAAs like 2009 UNC.

They simply check every box:

1. NBA talent all over the roster including a stud wing and a stud big man
2. Top 10 offense and defense
3. HoF coach
4. Best eFG% defense
5. Built in adversity to battle with the school scandal
6. Clutch PG in Cassius Winston (has some Shabazz and Tyus in him)

They turn the ball over too much but that's about it. They're the team to beat imo.

 

[doogie503]

Who cares? Teams lose meaningless games during the season; it's college basketball. Some teams just want it more on a particular day in the regular season.

2009 UNC lost to KenPom #74 BC and #55 Maryland during the reg season.

2010 Duke lost to #69 NC State during the reg season.

The field is a terrible bet vs these 3 particular teams. They have the perfect combination of experience, guard play and NBA talent.

If we're being literal about making a bet, it would depend what type of bet you're trying to make.

Wanna throw $100 on those 3 teams for a big payout? It would make sense.

Want to actually play the more likely odds and make a bigger bet? The field would be the obvious choice.

 

[CDZERA]

This 'Nova team has a chance to make a run if they start clicking defensively. Not there yet. Hopefully Booth's return helps. Probably a top 2 perimeter defender and the team has really struggled defending guys off the bounce.

Should be good for depth too. Six guys get most of the minutes with three others filling out, at points they were missing two of the main six.

Gonzaga has moved up the rankings really quietly.

 

[jhmossy]

I love how @bignish is naming all the flaws of the other teams but has failed to mention the flaws of Duke, MSU, or Villanova.

Duke gets burned by simple back cuts. Just wait until they play an explosive offense.

 

[JimboBBN]

You don't need to be great when everyone else is mediocre to terrible.

KU: LOL Bill Self
UVA: no one can create their own shot
Xavier: shittier version of Nova so cannot beat Nova
Ciny: can't score
Purdue: unathletic backcourt with zero NBA talent

You make a point about the competition, but I don't think the three you've mentioned are head and shoulders better than the rest of the field. A hot team like Kansas, Kentucky, or Purdue could all beat those three any given day, and it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Let's not kid ourselves. No one will be shocked if all three of those are gone by the elite 8.

 

[jhmossy]

The beauty and tragedy of college basketball means that some not-great-team will win the title this year, unlike great teams in other years who dealt with better competition (2015, 2008, 2005 come to mind). We've had other down years (2016, 2011), but this is probably the worst I've seen, frankly.

If you want to watch a tournament that crowns the best team, go watch another sport. College basketball crowns a champion of a 6-game single elimination tournament. It's one of the worst ways to determine the best team in any sport.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Witness.

 

[Down21]

You have to look at who's actually improving on the offensive or defensive end with conference play ending now like @tw3301 pointed out.

For instance, Duke did not like the #42 KenPom defense vs Clemson on Sunday now that its without Bagley and utilizing zone.

Duke 2015 may be an exception. They were in the 90s in january and finished the regular season at 37.

Also, that Duke team was the most efficient offensive team of all the champions in the history of KenPom.

There are outliers but most fit that mold.

 

[tw3301]

Duke 2015 may be an exception. They were in the 90s in january and finished the regular season at 37.

Also, that Duke team was the most efficient offensive team of all the champions in the history of KenPom.

There are outliers but most fit that mold.

Do you have to pay kenpom to go back and check rankings in January, etc. of previous years?

 

[Clive Gollings]

The fieldseemslike the safe bet.