Did you spill your seed all over the space bar again?
Nova, MSU, Duke
- Thread starter bignish
- Start date
My seedhas never left.I camehome,to it. My keyboard looks likea spider web with allthe cross-contamination with semen.
I missed it to be honest. It has the correct feel.
Here are the odds provided by FiveThirtyEight from the 2017 Tournament:
Top 3:
Villanova - 15%
Gonzaga - 13.8%
Kanas - 10.4%
Odds for top 3: 39.2%
The Field: 60.8%
Statistically speaking, yes, the field is more likely to win this bet. But I don't think it's an overwhelming favorite. MSU, Villanova, and Duke will all be tough outs. I think it's likely we'll see 1 or 2 of these schools in the FF (1 seeds make the FF 41% of the time).
Top 3:
Villanova - 15%
Gonzaga - 13.8%
Kanas - 10.4%
Odds for top 3: 39.2%
The Field: 60.8%
Statistically speaking, yes, the field is more likely to win this bet. But I don't think it's an overwhelming favorite. MSU, Villanova, and Duke will all be tough outs. I think it's likely we'll see 1 or 2 of these schools in the FF (1 seeds make the FF 41% of the time).
Yep. Weakest top 3 in some time. More comfortable taking the field this year than any.
You have to go wayyyyy back to find a title winner that wasn't coached by someone or had some players that had at least been to the E8 or better.
Tourney experience matters. Purdue would be my favorite if not for that.
Michigan State has pedestrian guards. Winston is good not elite.
Villanova will lose to some random 8 seed in the second round for the 5th time this decade.
Duke has zero depth and is still not a great defensive team.
Ty Jerome didn't have any issue creating his own shot here. You fail to realize that players can create their own shots by being smart basketball players and taking advantage of players who lack basketball IQ. This can be accomplished with shot fakes and creative dribbling. It's not all about athleticism and talent. Jerome used his superior basketball intelligence to fake out an idiot defender...who falls for a ball fake to nobody?
Arizona has 3 of the best 30 players in the nation. They can start try harding on defense in the tournament like Duke did in 2015.
Purdue has as much NBA talent as Villanova did 2 years ago.
Virginia is #1 in KenPom for a reason.
MSU has exactly one good guard and 4 good players overall.
Michigan State will lose to a team that has a good guard that goes nuts. Don't know if any team can match them from 3-5 though. Maybe Duke if Bagley is healthy. I'd like to see Jaren Jackson against Robert Williams and Tyler Davis from A&M too.
Michigan State has feasted on non tournament teams. They have a losing record against tournament teams on the year.
Beat Purdue by 3 at home aftwr trailing by 2 with under a min left
Dunptrucked UNC
Ohio State dump trucked them, Michigan beat them easily on the road
Duke beat them without Bagley
Alot has to happen for then to beat 4 good teams in a row.
Jaren Jackson and Miles Bridges both got in foul trouble against water trash Northwestern and they fell behind by 27.
They were able to come back in the 2nd half because NW sucks, but against good teams if they get foul trouble for 2 of their4 total good players, they will be doomed in a one gamem scenario.
You are taking a huge leap of faith expecting them to beat 6 good teams in a row.
I'm telling you dude MSU is just sleepwalking through the regular season. You saw how easily they put the clamps down on NW once they were down 27 and needed to come back.
LOL all of the contenders I brought up also have 3 of the top 30 players in the country.
Nova: Brunson, Mikal Bridges, DiVicenzo
Duke: Carter, Bagley, Allen
MSU: Bridges, Ward, Jackson
They play much better defense than Zona does.
UVA has been the most efficient team in the nation no doubt but the ACC is watered down this year and its my opinion that their low possession style of basketball leaves them ripe for an upset when an opposing player in the tournament goes nuclear on them.
Jacking up a 3 after a ball fake isn't really creating your own shot. I'm talking about having the athleticism and skill to take a defender off the dribble and manufacture your own points.
Kudos to Jerome for hitting that shot but its not something you can keep relying on against elite defenses who have proper positioning.
UVA is sleep walking through the ACC and is still 14-1.
DeAndre Hunter can create his own shot. He abused Bagley and Carter before rolling his ankle in the Duke game.
It pretty much takes a player going nuclear against us to beat us though. And even that doesn't guarantee anything. I'll take those odds in the long run. In a single elimination tourney, if someone goes nuclear against you, you're going home, regardless who you are.
MSU is top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency. You can’t blame pure luck for that comeback, that was absolute lockdown defense. We also are on an 11 game winstreak, and tied for longest in division 1, with wins at Maryland, and Purdue during that stretch. Even in a down year the Big Ten on the road isn’t easy. MSU has 3 loses and knows how to win tight games. They are also Big Ten champs and had 1 loss in the non-con. They have a point guard who can shoot it and with great court vision, a small forward who is an athletic freak, a power forward who is the best defensive player in college basketball, and a center who has arguably the best post moves in the country (no mention of Josh because he sucks). All that and with a hall of fame coach. This is a resume of a team that could win it all.
Saw this on reddit a few days ago. Basically 12 common categories of the last however many champs, and the 2018 teams that are in at least a few of these categories. He based it on this article (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1567816-blueprint-of-an-ncaa-basketball-champion) from 2013, but added 4 of his own categories.
Wow, we match 12? That’s crazySaw this on reddit a few days ago. Basically 12 common categories of the last however many champs, and the 2018 teams that are in at least a few of these categories. He based it on this article (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1567816-blueprint-of-an-ncaa-basketball-champion) from 2013, but added 4 of his own categories.
As of a few days ago when it was posted. Kind of cherry picked, but I think the creator was a Kansas fan.
Duke is now ranked 27 on kenpom defensively, only category missing is the conference wins or conference tourney champs... So there's still a chance.Saw this on reddit a few days ago. Basically 12 common categories of the last however many champs, and the 2018 teams that are in at least a few of these categories. He based it on this article (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1567816-blueprint-of-an-ncaa-basketball-champion) from 2013, but added 4 of his own categories.
This man gets so triggered when anything said is good about MSU I swear to god. He had us predicted 10th in the Big Ten last year returning 3 starters
I agree with you overall, but Virginia will lose because of their own inability to score imo. I don't see any team going nuclear on Virginia. When you play as few possessions as Virginia does, it gives a much lower margin of error to win 6 straight imo. Especially when you don't have a player that is go to.
Another thing, and Im being genuine when I say this, Kentucky would beat Michigan State if they were to play in the tournament.
UK is much deeper as far as amount of good players and has athletes to throw on MSUs good players.
Plus, Knox and Hami Diallo would look as good as they ever looked with the likes of McQuaid, Langford, and Ca$$ius guarding them.
UK is much deeper as far as amount of good players and has athletes to throw on MSUs good players.
Plus, Knox and Hami Diallo would look as good as they ever looked with the likes of McQuaid, Langford, and Ca$$ius guarding them.
Diallo wouldn't look good against a chair right now. He's broken mentally.
lol
In what world would Cassius Winston ever be guarding Kevin Knox? JJJ would probably guard Knox, maybe Bridges or even someone like Kenny Goins (who shut down Vince Edwards).
He hates MSU and everything about them. Don’t listen to any of his opinions
I think it would be an interesting matchup. Don't know if Michigan State could guard Alexander. Same thing with UK and Bridges though.
Cash has improved drastically defensively (and all around) this season. While it wouldn’t be great, I don’t think it would be a nightmare like it was last season.
We may have a smaller margin of error than the faster paced teams but we're also 14-1 against the ACC this year and 25-2 overall. We have shown that we can win 6 straight games against good competition. 67 teams don't win 6 straight games in the tourney every year. That doesn't mean there's an inherent flaw in their strategy.
Every single team has flaws. We lack the offensive talent to run up the floor with the elite programs. But our strategy allows us to win games even when we don't score or have poor shooting nights. If a team like Duke has an off shooting night, they have no chance to win because they can't keep the other team from scoring.
I just don't see how a strategy can be so successful in the regular season but be considered such a flop in the postseason, especially when based on such a small sample size in which we've sustained significant injuries each year. But I also know all that matters for us going forward is how we perform in the tourney so the criticism is fair.
UK is too big at guard for MSU. Langford Cash and McQ already allow too much penetration, theyd be killed by UKs big athletes in SGA, Diallo, and Knox.
Hami Diallo is awful.
Bridges will shut down Knox and make him cry to his mama. Jaren Jackson is simply better than Jarred Vanderbilt.
The only advantage UK has is SGA over Josh Langford.
Go home, you're drunk if you think Kentucky would beat Michigan State in the tournament. Could they? Sure but its unlikely.
Just pray to Yahweh that you don't run into MSU in the tourney again brah. They're a bad matchup for the Hoos again.
Bignish, judgingby your posts ITT, its very apparent you have not watched much of Michigan State.
They have a losing record against tournament teams for a reason. When they play good teams, alot has to go right for them as far as running good on jump shots and also avoiding foul trouble to 2 players specifically.
They were down 27 to Northwestern(water trash NW!) because Bridges and Jackson were in foul trouble.
This isnt some deeply talented team like say Duke who has talent at every position.
This is 2 elite players, 2 good players, and a bunch of below average players surrounding them.
They have a losing record against tournament teams for a reason. When they play good teams, alot has to go right for them as far as running good on jump shots and also avoiding foul trouble to 2 players specifically.
They were down 27 to Northwestern(water trash NW!) because Bridges and Jackson were in foul trouble.
This isnt some deeply talented team like say Duke who has talent at every position.
This is 2 elite players, 2 good players, and a bunch of below average players surrounding them.
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