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KenPom Ratings By Conference:

duckboy33

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May 3, 2009
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Team
Oregon
ACC:
1. Virginia (9th nationally)
2. Florida State (12th nationally)
3. North Carolina (29th nationally)
4. Duke (30th nationally)
5. Virginia Tech (37th nationally)
6. Georgia Tech (40th nationally)
7. Clemson (41st nationally)
8. Syracuse (51st nationally)
9. Louisville (54th nationally)
10. Notre Dame (57th nationally)
11. NC State (72nd nationally)
12. Pittsburgh (80th nationally)
13. Boston College (122nd nationaly)
14. Wake Forest (132nd nationally)
15. Miami FL (139th nationally)

Big 12:
1. Baylor (2nd nationally)
2. West Virginia (16th nationally)
3. Texas (21st nationally)
4. Texas Tech (22nd nationally)
5. Kansas (23rd nationally)
6. Oklahoma (27th nationally)
7. Oklahoma State (42nd nationally)
8. TCU (124th nationally)
9. Iowa State (162nd nationally)
10. Kansas State (186th nationally)

Big East:
1. Villanova (11th nationally)
2. Creighton (14th nationally)
3. UConn (34th nationally)
4. Seton Hall (38th nationally)
5. Xavier (59th nationally)
6. St. John's (69th nationally)
7. Providence (76th nationally)
8. Marquette (84th nationally)
9. Georgetown (91st nationally)
10. DePaul (121st nationally)
11. Butler (125th nationally)

Big Ten:
1. Iowa (3rd nationally)
2. Michigan (4th nationally)
3. Illinois (5th nationally)
4. Ohio State (6th nationally)
5. Wisconsin (15th nationally)
6. Purdue (19th nationally)
7. Rutgers (26th nationally)
8. Indiana (32nd nationally)
9. Maryland (33rd nationally)
10. Penn State (35th nationally)
11. Minnesota (50th nationally)
12. Michigan State (65th nationally)
13. Northwestern (68th nationally)
14. Nebraska (119th nationally)

PAC 12:
1. USC (13th nationally)
2. Colorado (17th nationally)
3. Oregon (36th nationally)
4. Arizona (39th nationally)
5. UCLA (43rd nationally)
6. Stanford (61st nationally)
7. Utah (82nd nationally)
8. Washington State (96th nationally)
9. Arizona State (99th nationally)
10. Oregon State (106th nationally)
11. California (154th nationally)
12. Washington (168th nationally)

SEC:
1. Alabama (8th nationally)
2. Arkansas (24th nationally)
3. Tennessee (25th nationally)
4. LSU (28th nationally)
5. Florida (21st nationally)
6. Missouri (44th nationally)
7. Kentucky (48th nationally)
8. Ole Miss (60th nationally)
9. Auburn (63rd nationally)
10. Mississippi State (73rd nationally)
11. Georgia (85th nationally)
12. South Carolina (98th nationally)
13. Vanderbilt (103rd nationally)
14. Texas A&M (128th nationally)

Mid Majors in the top 50:
1. Gonzaga (1st nationally)
2. Houston (7th nationally)
3. Loyola Chicago (10th nationally)
4. San Diego State (18th nationally)
5. BYU (20th nationally)
6. VCU (45th nationally)
7. Drake (46th nationally)
8. Memphis (47th nationally)
9. St. Bonaventure (49th nationally)
 
I wonder how many games got impacted by key players being out for COVID. Gotta believe that's nearly impossible to track. Maybe it kind of evened out over the entire season but I'm sure some schedules got skewed.
 
I wonder how many games got impacted by key players being out for COVID. Gotta believe that's nearly impossible to track. Maybe it kind of evened out over the entire season but I'm sure some schedules got skewed.

It’s impacted everyone but some teams have been more heavily impacted than others. I doubt there’s anything in the formula that could account for that
 
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Big Ten with 11 teams in the Top 50 of KenPom, but Kansas fan still wants to fail at trying to troll Big Ten fans with the idea that the Big 12 is better........


If you want a serious answer, I'll give it a whirl.

I'm not sure I've ever actually said that the Big 12 is "better," although that depends on the criteria you use. What I have said is that the average Big 12 schedule is tougher this year.

Assuming that Wisky falls out of the rankings this week, KU will have more victories over ranked teams than your top four teams combined. Pretty pitiful, if you think about it, considering that we keep hearing about a "gauntlet."

6 wins vs teams ranked in the coaches poll vs (likely) 0 for Iowa. More than twice as many ranked league opponents.

Spin it all you want, but I don't think you'd trade Iowa's schedule for playing Baylor, Texas, WV, OU, Texas Tech 2x each. That's two games vs arguably the best team in the country, and eight vs teams that have spent much of the year in the top 15. Okie St isn't exactly a pushover either.

You can argue that teams like Indiana and Minnesota are secretly good teams that are getting beaten up by a brutal slate, but nobody's buying it.

But, of course....when all else fails, fall back on trusty Kenpom because it loves the Big 10 this year. They also love 19-4 Loyola (#9) and their zero quality wins and multiple bad losses. But even if we use Kenpom, Iowa doesn't play a lot of games vs top teams. They have a lot vs teams in the 30-75 range.
 
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Predictive ratings, like these, aren't supposed to reflect who has the best resume. They are trying to reflect which are the best teams moving forward. If you want to look at best resume, the NET is probably going to be your friend.
 
Predictive ratings, like these, aren't supposed to reflect who has the best resume. They are trying to reflect which are the best teams moving forward. If you want to look at best resume, the NET is probably going to be your friend.

Results trump numbers.

Not to mention there are so many things that raw numbers can't account for. A drop in efficiency due to clearing the bench for the last 10 minutes of the game. Key players injured.

It also has no way to account for the way a team is currently playing. A team can improve vastly over the course of the year but their ranking won't reflect it.

Regardless, Loyola at 9 makes little sense on any level.
 
Results trump numbers.

Not to mention there are so many things that raw numbers can't account for. A drop in efficiency due to clearing the bench for the last 10 minutes of the game. Key players injured.

It also has no way to account for the way a team is currently playing. A team can improve vastly over the course of the year but their ranking won't reflect it.

Regardless, Loyola at 9 makes little sense on any level.

I'm not arguing that predictive models should matter more than results. Results are what the selection committee will be looking at and rightfully so. That said, we've seen plenty of times where a team has had a better resume and were underdogs in Vegas. Resume doesn't always reflect a team's strength. KenPom is one of the best predictive models out there. To ignore it or discredit it would be a mistake IMO.

My guess is you haven't watched a ton of Loyola basketball so maybe slow your roll on how they aren't that good. They've made a Final Four recently and have a very good record/coach. Their resume suggests they are probably a 9/10 seed but they are likely a much better team than that.
 
I'm not arguing that predictive models should matter more than results. Results are what the selection committee will be looking at and rightfully so. That said, we've seen plenty of times where a team has had a better resume and were underdogs in Vegas. Resume doesn't always reflect a team's strength. KenPom is one of the best predictive models out there. To ignore it or discredit it would be a mistake IMO.

My guess is you haven't watched a ton of Loyola basketball so maybe slow your roll on how they aren't that good. They've made a Final Four recently and have a very good record/coach. Their resume suggests they are probably a 9/10 seed but they are likely a much better team than that.

I'm not saying that they aren't fairly good, but do you think they're anywhere close to #9 if they were in a legit league?

They got waxed by an average Wisconsin team, shooting 39% in the process. Shortly after, they shot 69% vs St Francis. I think it's pretty clear that numbers like this have inflated their Kenpom ranking. Which brings us back to Kenpom not being able to properly account for competition.

And I'm not saying that Kenpom isn't one of the best. My issue is that people cite it like it's gospel, rather than taking it with a grain of salt.
 
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I'm not saying that they aren't fairly good, but do you think they're anywhere close to #9 if they were in a legit league?

They got waxed by an average Wisconsin team, shooting 39% in the process. Shortly after, they shot 69% vs St Francis. I think it's pretty clear that numbers like this have inflated their Kenpom ranking. Which brings us back to Kenpom not being able to properly account for competition.

And I'm not saying that Kenpom isn't one of the best. My issue is that people cite it like it's gospel, rather than taking it with a grain of salt.

To be clear, Kempom does take SOS in to account. If you don't think it does it well enough, that's fine, that's your opinion. However, as one of the most success predictive models out there, I don't think it would be wise to ignore their ratings just because we don't like the outcome this particular time.
 
Lol I remember last season Kenpom final rankings had Kansas #1, Baylor #3 and WVU #10 and big 10 fans here were having a fit, believing the Big 12 was ranked too high. Now this year kenpom is gospal to them. I guess it goes both ways but it's still funny to me.
 
To be clear, Kempom does take SOS in to account. If you don't think it does it well enough, that's fine, that's your opinion. However, as one of the most success predictive models out there, I don't think it would be wise to ignore their ratings just because we don't like the outcome this particular time.

I know it does. But I don't think it does a fantastic job. Like I said earlier, I'm not sure it's possible to properly account for it.

Do you believe that Loyola would be top 10 if they played in a great league? If not, then the algorithm isn't succeeding.
 
Lol I remember last season Kenpom final rankings had Kansas #1, Baylor #3 and WVU #10 and big 10 fans here were having a fit, believing the Big 12 was ranked too high. Now this year kenpom is gospal.

Yep. Final rankings last season were flawed, but early and midseason rankings in the Covid year are on point. 😂
 
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If you want a serious answer, I'll give it a whirl.

I'm not sure I've ever actually said that the Big 12 is "better," although that depends on the criteria you use. What I have said is that the average Big 12 schedule is tougher this year.

Assuming that Wisky falls out of the rankings this week, KU will have more victories over ranked teams than your top four teams combined. Pretty pitiful, if you think about it, considering that we keep hearing about a "gauntlet."

6 wins vs teams ranked in the coaches poll vs (likely) 0 for Iowa. More than twice as many ranked league opponents.

Spin it all you want, but I don't think you'd trade Iowa's schedule for playing Baylor, Texas, WV, OU, Texas Tech 2x each. That's two games vs arguably the best team in the country, and eight vs teams that have spent much of the year in the top 15. Okie St isn't exactly a pushover either.

You can argue that teams like Indiana and Minnesota are secretly good teams that are getting beaten up by a brutal slate, but nobody's buying it.

But, of course....when all else fails, fall back on trusty Kenpom because it loves the Big 10 this year. They also love 19-4 Loyola (#9) and their zero quality wins and multiple bad losses. But even if we use Kenpom, Iowa doesn't play a lot of games vs top teams. They have a lot vs teams in the 30-75 range.
Lol using the AP and coaches poll to spin numbers in your favor.......

 
I know it does. But I don't think it does a fantastic job. Like I said earlier, I'm not sure it's possible to properly account for it.

Do you believe that Loyola would be top 10 if they played in a great league? If not, then the algorithm isn't succeeding.

Loyola is a very good team and I think they would be in any league. We know KenPom is one of the best predictive models out there, most basketball people acknowledge that. Dismissing it because your favorite team isn't ranked as high as you want them to be is silly.
 
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Lol I remember last season Kenpom final rankings had Kansas #1, Baylor #3 and WVU #10 and big 10 fans here were having a fit, believing the Big 12 was ranked too high. Now this year kenpom is gospal to them. I guess it goes both ways but it's still funny to me.

More proof that the complaints aren't about KenPom's formula, they are about whether they ranked your favorite team as high as you wanted them to.
 
Loyola is a very good team and I think they would be in any league. We know KenPom is one of the best predictive models out there, most basketball people acknowledge that. Dismissing it because your favorite team isn't ranked as high as you want them to be is silly.
Drake > Loyola


And if not, well then they should be got dammit.
 
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Loyola is a very good team and I think they would be in any league. We know KenPom is one of the best predictive models out there, most basketball people acknowledge that. Dismissing it because your favorite team isn't ranked as high as you want them to be is silly.

Well, it would be, if I were doing that.

Again, I never even said it isn't one of the best. It can be one of the best and still have flaws.
 
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Well, it would be, if I were doing that.

Again, I never even said it isn't one of the best. It can be one of the best and still have flaws.

That's fair. No system is perfect because it's not an exact science. However, it does seem like the fans want to dismiss the ratings are the ones who aren't happy with where their team is ranked. It's kind of silly to dismiss KenPom and promote the AP rankings (which are obviously more flawed).
 
If you want a serious answer, I'll give it a whirl.

I'm not sure I've ever actually said that the Big 12 is "better," although that depends on the criteria you use. What I have said is that the average Big 12 schedule is tougher this year.

Assuming that Wisky falls out of the rankings this week, KU will have more victories over ranked teams than your top four teams combined. Pretty pitiful, if you think about it, considering that we keep hearing about a "gauntlet."

6 wins vs teams ranked in the coaches poll vs (likely) 0 for Iowa. More than twice as many ranked league opponents.

Spin it all you want, but I don't think you'd trade Iowa's schedule for playing Baylor, Texas, WV, OU, Texas Tech 2x each. That's two games vs arguably the best team in the country, and eight vs teams that have spent much of the year in the top 15. Okie St isn't exactly a pushover either.

You can argue that teams like Indiana and Minnesota are secretly good teams that are getting beaten up by a brutal slate, but nobody's buying it.

But, of course....when all else fails, fall back on trusty Kenpom because it loves the Big 10 this year. They also love 19-4 Loyola (#9) and their zero quality wins and multiple bad losses. But even if we use Kenpom, Iowa doesn't play a lot of games vs top teams. They have a lot vs teams in the 30-75 range.
What you fail to realize is that the reason why your teams are staying in the top 15 is because they aren't playing as many games vs teams likely to knock them off. The B10 has had at least 10 different teams in the rankings at some point, but because of the strength of the conference, everyone has been knocking each other off causing teams to drop out of the rankings.
 
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I'm not saying that they aren't fairly good, but do you think they're anywhere close to #9 if they were in a legit league?

They got waxed by an average Wisconsin team, shooting 39% in the process. Shortly after, they shot 69% vs St Francis. I think it's pretty clear that numbers like this have inflated their Kenpom ranking. Which brings us back to Kenpom not being able to properly account for competition.

And I'm not saying that Kenpom isn't one of the best. My issue is that people cite it like it's gospel, rather than taking it with a grain of salt.
You're letting your personal view of Wisconsin skew your entire view of things. Wisconsin is better than you think. The metrics agree with me.
 
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That's fair. No system is perfect because it's not an exact science. However, it does seem like the fans want to dismiss the ratings are the ones who aren't happy with where their team is ranked. It's kind of silly to dismiss KenPom and promote the AP rankings (which are obviously more flawed).

The selection committee takes things like NET and Kenpom into consideration, too.
 
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What you fail to realize is that the reason why your teams are staying in the top 15 is because they aren't playing as many games vs teams likely to knock them off. The B10 has had at least 10 different teams in the rankings at some point, but because of the strength of the conference, everyone has been knocking each other off causing teams to drop out of the rankings.

Are you serious with this?

The Big 12 has 6 teams in the current ESPN power rankings, and OU just fell out after being top 10 for weeks. Each of these teams play twice.

The schedule hasn’t done anyone in the league any favors. It’s done the opposite. Each team has at most a handful of games vs teams that aren’t high-quality. And wins over those teams do nothing for a team's ranking.

The Big 10 is the deeper league, partly due to having more teams. But that doesn’t make their schedules harder. If the tourney-caliber teams played each other twice, they would be.
 
ms play twice.

The schedule hasn’t done anyone in the league any favors. It’s done the opposite. Each team has at most a handful of games vs teams that aren’t high-quality. And wins over those teams do nothing for a team's ranking.

The Big 10 is the deeper league, partly due to having more teams. But that doesn’t make their schedules harder. If the tourney-caliber teams played each other twice, they would be.

Except the Big 10 teams don't get 6 games against TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State, all sub-100 teams. Nebraska is rated higher than your #8 team. And KenPom has 6 Big Ten teams ahead of the #2 Big 12 school. Interesting enough, the margin between the Big 12 and SEC is actually smaller than it is between the Big 12 and Big 10.
 
Except the Big 10 teams don't get 6 games against TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State, all sub-100 teams. Nebraska is rated higher than your #8 team. And KenPom has 6 Big Ten teams ahead of the #2 Big 12 school. Interesting enough, the margin between the Big 12 and SEC is actually smaller than it is between the Big 12 and Big 10.

You are putting way too much stock into the KenPom rankings. Even the experts are saying it's a joke this year. I mean have you looked at some of those teams that are ranked ahead of the big 12 teams? Loyola, Purdue, Virginia, Colorado, etc all ranked ahead of the #2 big 12 team.

11-9 Duke at #35 Laughing
 
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KenPom rankings. Even the experts are saying it's a joke this year. I mean have you looked at some of those teams that are ranked ahead of the big 12 teams? Loyola, Purdue, Virginia, Colorado, etc all ranked ahead of the #2 big 12 team.

It not a perfect system, of course. And obviously a smaller OOC season means the sampling error is going to be larger than normal. Loyola is probably deserving of a 7-9 seed. They're not a top 15 team, IMO. I'd have West Virginia ahead of Wisconsin. But, not ahead of Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, or Iowa. It's not obvious to me that West Virginia is better than Purdue. Those two teams are fairly evenly matched, IMO. I might give a slight edge to WVU.

If you average KenPom, Sagarin, and BartTorvik, here are how the schools would be ranked.

Big 10
Michigan: 2.3
Iowa: 4.7
Illinois: 6.0
Ohio State: 7.3
-----------------------
Wisconsin: 12.7
Purdue: 16.0
Rutgers: 26.7
Maryland: 27.0
Indiana: 38.3
------------------
Penn State: 47.0
Michigan State: 54.3
Minnesota: 57.3
Northwestern: 74.0
Nebraska: 104.7

Big 12
Baylor: 3.0
West Virginia: 13.7
Kansas: 15.7
-------------------------
Texas Tech: 21.7
Texas: 22.3
Oklahoma: 30.7
OKlahoma State: 33.3
------------------------------
TCU: 104.3
Iowa State: 148.0
Kansas State: 168.7

I've broken the conference up into thirds. The Big Ten clearly wins the top third and bottom third of those two respective conferences. Not particularly close, as Big Ten is beating the Big 12 in every position there. The middle third of the conferences is debatable. Very debatable. So, Big Ten is more front-loaded. And the Big 12 has three very obvious weak links at the bottom. The middle of the Big 12 is quality, and any one of those schools in the middle has Sweet 16 potential. Overall, the Big 12 really only has an argument in the middle of the conference. And it's not like that would be a significant advantage over the Big 10.

I'm sure you think 11-9 Duke is ranked properly at #35. Laughing No wonder you like KenPom ranking so much!

The way Duke is playing lately, that's probably about right. KenPom rankings don't reflect results, of course. It's more indicative of scoring margins, simply adjusted for SOS. Duke loses close games. We're 3-8 in single-digit games - and 8-1 in games that are decided by 10 points or more.
 
Except the Big 10 teams don't get 6 games against TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State, all sub-100 teams. Nebraska is rated higher than your #8 team. And KenPom has 6 Big Ten teams ahead of the #2 Big 12 school. Interesting enough, the margin between the Big 12 and SEC is actually smaller than it is between the Big 12 and Big 10.

Nebraska should still be an easy win for a solid team. I think it's pointless to compare bottom-feeders in regard to schedule strength.

But my point was that it's absurd to claim that it's easier to maintain a top 15 ranking when two-thirds of your games are vs top 15-ish teams. Do you disagree?

Sure, if you're one to take Kenpom as gospel, some of the Big 10 schedules look pretty brutal. But I don't think this is the year to take Kenpom as gospel, if ever.
 
It not a perfect system, of course. And obviously a smaller OOC season means the sampling error is going to be larger than normal. Loyola is probably deserving of a 7-9 seed. They're not a top 15 team, IMO. I'd have West Virginia ahead of Wisconsin. But, not ahead of Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, or Iowa. It's not obvious to me that West Virginia is better than Purdue. Those two teams are fairly evenly matched, IMO. I might give a slight edge to WVU.

If you average KenPom, Sagarin, and BartTorvik, here are how the schools would be ranked.

Big 10
Michigan: 2.3
Iowa: 4.7
Illinois: 6.0
Ohio State: 7.3
-----------------------
Wisconsin: 12.7
Purdue: 16.0
Rutgers: 26.7
Maryland: 27.0
Indiana: 38.3
------------------
Penn State: 47.0
Michigan State: 54.3
Minnesota: 57.3
Northwestern: 74.0
Nebraska: 104.7

Big 12
Baylor: 3.0
West Virginia: 13.7
Kansas: 15.7
-------------------------
Texas Tech: 21.7
Texas: 22.3
Oklahoma: 30.7
OKlahoma State: 33.3
------------------------------
TCU: 104.3
Iowa State: 148.0
Kansas State: 168.7

I've broken the conference up into thirds. The Big Ten clearly wins the top third and bottom third of those two respective conferences. Not particularly close, as Big Ten is beating the Big 12 in every position there. The middle third of the conferences is debatable. Very debatable. So, Big Ten is more front-loaded. And the Big 12 has three very obvious weak links at the bottom. The middle of the Big 12 is quality, and any one of those schools in the middle has Sweet 16 potential. Overall, the Big 12 really only has an argument in the middle of the conference. And it's not like that would be a significant advantage over the Big 10.

I'm


The way Duke is playing lately, that's probably about right. KenPom rankings don't reflect results, of course. It's more indicative of scoring margins, simply adjusted for SOS. Duke loses close games. We're 3-8 in single-digit games - and 8-1 in games that are decided by 10 points or more.

The big 10 has been getting a lot of hype. I'm ready to see if they can take care of business once the madness starts. I'm not ready to say for sure one way or another that they are ahead of the Big 12. When you compare each of the top teams schedules, they are similar in a way. Looking at WVU schedule next to teams like Illinois, Iowa, I don't know how anyone can say for sure which is the better team. Also having watched those teams a good bit, the eye test doesn't exactly make one team stand out above the other either.

Duke has improved a lot but are they really deserving of #35 just from recent play? I didn't know Kenpom went by that.
 
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