KenPom Ratings By Conference:

[Boilermaker03]

Ah, the trusty ol’ “everyone knows it” argument.

What’s so awful about the current AP poll? Having Wisconsin 25 vs 12 on Kenpom? Loyola at 20 vs 11? Both are lucky to be ranked at all.

Seems legit for Wisky to be top 12 despite being 1-6 vs the Kenpom top 25 with 9 total losses. Their lone win being Loyola.

Well when your only opportunities to get wins vs the Kenpom top 25 is #12, 2, 7, 6, 2, 5, 6. I'd expect them to be 1-6 since #12 was the only one that wasn't a single digit... They will get 2 more chances @13 Purdue and then @5 Iowa. Both are expected losses per Kenpom.

Poor Wisconsin doesn't even get to play a top 25 team between the ranks of 25-15. Their losses so far are #78, 26, 2, 7, 40, 6, 2, 5, 6.

Kansas has played 6 teams between 25-15. Their best win was vs 14 Creighton until Baylor. Losses are to #1, 25, 35, 3, 31, 24, 19, 25.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Well when your only opportunities to get wins vs the Kenpom top 25 is #12, 2, 7, 6, 2, 5, 6. I'd expect them to be 1-6 since #12 was the only one that wasn't a single digit... They will get 2 more chances @13 Purdue and then @5 Iowa. Both are expected losses per Kenpom.

Poor Wisconsin doesn't even get to play a top 25 team between the ranks of 25-15. Their losses so far are #78, 26, 2, 7, 40, 6, 2, 5, 6.

Kansas has played 6 teams between 25-15. Their best win was vs 14 Creighton until Baylor. Losses are to #1, 25, 35, 3, 31, 24, 19, 25.

Well, again, if you treat Kenpom like gospel, the Big 10 comes out looking great. Not everyone worships at the altar of Pomeroy. At least, I think there are some left. Granted, not many, because they’re treated like Holocaust deniers.

At the end of the day, the goal of the sport is to win. And if you lose by double digits every time you play a quality team, you don’t deserve to be ranked highly. It’s that simple. It’s great that they blew out Louisville’s backups and all, but they’ve done nothing to show that they belong that high.

The Big 12 had several teams in the Kenpom top 10 earlier this year. Those teams excelled in the non-con and have dominated the bottom-feeders of the Big 12, while beating each other up. What should cause any of them to drop significantly?

 

[ExitFlagger]

I don't know where you're getting your data but Michigan has played 5 games vs the current top 25. Not sure why you were cutting it off at the top 20. As of tomorrow night, they will have played 3 vs the current top 10.

Kansas has not led the country in quad 1 wins as of yesterday. Played the most quad 1 games, yes, but not in wins. Kansas has 6 quad 1 wins. Michigan AND Illinois both have 8. Hell, Purdue has only 1 less quad 1 win than Kansas.

Early in the season the talk was that the B10 was going to send 12 teams to the NCAA tourney. I knew that wasn't possible because there would be a lot of teams getting knocked off by one another.

Michigan's schedule by Kenpom ranked opponents: Average of 56.3

Kansas' schedule by Kenpom ranked opponents: Average of 80 (I didn't count the NR team which would have been 300+ most likely)

Not sure what you’re challenging in regard to Michigan. I said that they’ve played two games vs the top 20 and you’re saying it will be 3 as of tomorrow.

You’re right...KU is now a few behind the top in quad 1 wins. I’d still probably put their wins up against anyone’s.

And more to the point, they’ve played the most quad 1 games. Yet you keep insisting that Big 12 teams don’t play many games vs teams on their level. Two-thirds of their schedule is vs teams at their level.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Well, again, if you treat Kenpom like gospel, the Big 10 comes out looking great. Not everyone worships at the altar of Pomeroy. At least, I think there are some left. Granted, not many, because they’re treated like Holocaust deniers.

At the end of the day, the goal of the sport is to win. And if you lose by double digits every time you play a quality team, you don’t deserve to be ranked highly. It’s that simple. It’s great that they blew out Louisville’s backups and all, but they’ve done nothing to show that they belong that high.

The Big 12 had several teams in the Kenpom top 10 earlier this year. Those teams excelled in the non-con and have dominated the bottom-feeders of the Big 12, while beating each other up. What should cause any of them to drop significantly?

I can't speak to what the B12 Kenpom ratings were vs now. I didn't pay attention to the B12 ratings at the time. All I know is that the B10 is a gauntlet this year unlike anything I can recall seeing.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Not sure what you’re challenging in regard to Michigan. I said that they’ve played two games vs the top 20 and you’re saying it will be 3 as of tomorrow.

You’re right...KU is now a few behind the top in quad 1 wins. I’d still probably put their wins up against anyone’s.

And more to the point, they’ve played the most quad 1 games. Yet you keep insisting that Big 12 teams don’t play many games vs teams on their level. Two-thirds of their schedule is vs teams at their level.

Kansas is one team. The rest of the B12 doesn't have the schedule that Kansas does, especially since they didn't play the #1 team in the country (other than WVU).

I said Michigan has played 5 in the current top 25. I also said they will have played 3 in the top 10 as of tomorrow (not top 20).

B10 and B12 teams as a whole are playing roughly an equal amount of quad 1 games. The B10 is playing a higher average rating of teams in Q1. That's just a fact.

It's great that Kansas scheduled Gonzaaga. Beyond that they've only played one team twice that is in the top 15 of Kenpom. Wisconsin has played 4, some more than once.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I can't speak to what the B12 Kenpom ratings were vs now. I didn't pay attention to the B12 ratings at the time. All I know is that the B10 is a gauntlet this year unlike anything I can recall seeing.

Well, we’ll find out soon enough. If it’s truly loaded, they’ll dominate the tourney. With 9 or more teams in, they should probably have half the elite 8.

 

[ExitFlagger]

B10 and B12 teams as a whole are playing roughly an equal amount of quad 1 games. The B10 is playing a higher average rating of teams in Q1. That's just a fact.

It's great that Kansas scheduled Gonzaaga. Beyond that they've only played one team twice that is in the top 15 of Kenpom. Wisconsin has played 4, some more than once.

Higher average per Kenpom. And I think Kenpom is pretty flawed this year.

West Virginia took Gonzaga to the wire and has lost 4 games in the Big 12, with no bad losses. Yet they plummeted in Kenpom. Why?

Loyola has beaten no one all year and they have a few bad losses, yet they’ve steadily risen. Why?

These are the types of questions that deserve to be answered if people are going to keep citing Kenpom like it’s the ultimate truth.

 

[Boilermaker03]

You’re right...KU is now a few behind the top in quad 1 wins. I’d still probably put their wins up against anyone’s.

Kansas' top wins:
2 Baylor
14 Creighton
19 WVU
23 Texas Tech x2

Michigan's top wins:
5 Iowa
7 Ohio St
11 Wisconsin x2
13 Purdue
26 Maryland x2

Illinos' top wins: (Surprised at the lack of better wins, games vs Michigan and Ohio St coming up)
5 Iowa
11 Wisconsin x2
13 Purdue

Iowa's top wins: (again surprised at the lack of big wins, Iowa appears to have one of the easier B10 schedules)
7 Ohio St
11 Wisconsin
13 Purdue
26 Maryland

Purdue's top wins: (game vs Wisconsin coming up)
7 Ohio St x2
26 Maryland

Looks like Kansas' record of top wins is better than Purdue's, comparable to Iowa's, but I'd say Michigan and Illinois has better overall wins at this point. Per Kenpom

 

[Boilermaker03]

Well, we’ll find out soon enough. If it’s truly loaded, they’ll dominate the tourney. With 9 or more teams in, they should probably have half the elite 8.

We all know that isn't likely. Some will fall to other good teams. Some will knock each other off since they will have to play one another (saw this happen twice very early in the last tournament).

 

[Boilermaker03]

Higher average per Kenpom. And I think Kenpom is pretty flawed this year.

West Virginia took Gonzaga to the wire and has lost 4 games in the Big 12, with no bad losses. Yet they plummeted in Kenpom. Why?

Loyola has beaten no one all year and they have a few bad losses, yet they’ve steadily risen. Why?

These are the types of questions that deserve to be answered if people are going to keep citing Kenpom like it’s the ultimate truth.

Loyola has one bad loss. Who knows why. Did they just play bad? Were they coming back from a covid break (like Baylor). I don't know. (Most likely they had an off night) All of their losses were close and on the road.

West Virginia has 3 losses at home vs teams that they were supposed to beat. Gotta protect your home floor.

 

[ExitFlagger]

We all know that isn't likely. Some will fall to other good teams. Some will knock each other off since they will have to play one another (saw this happen twice very early in the last tournament).

With 9 or more teams in the field, all of which are top 30ish according to the Bible, and 6 in the top 15, the Big 10 should probably put about 7 in the Sweet 16. Then, combining the fact that a few will likely be facing each other in the Sweet 16, but not the top teams, they should be able to advance 4 if not even 5.

That’s what a league that is historically dominant would do. There obviously aren’t any dominant teams standing in their way other than Gonzaga or Baylor.

 

[Big ol arms]

Loyola has one bad loss. Who knows why. Did they just play bad? Were they coming back from a covid break (like Baylor). I don't know. (Most likely they had an off night) All of their losses were close and on the road.

West Virginia has 3 losses at home vs teams that they were supposed to beat. Gotta protect your home floor.

Texas was ranked much higher at the time and WVU was up all game but lost on the final shot. Oklahoma was ranked higher when they beat us by 1 in double OT. You are only right about us losing to Florida at home. These games were also after our long covid layoff.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Loyola has one bad loss. Who knows why. Did they just play bad? Were they coming back from a covid break (like Baylor). I don't know. (Most likely they had an off night) All of their losses were close and on the road.

West Virginia has 3 losses at home vs teams that they were supposed to beat. Gotta protect your home floor.

Right...home floor means a lot without fans.

You seem to just be trolling now. Defending Loyola’s losses while criticizing WV’s? Makes no sense.

Three of Loyola’s four losses were to 56, 62 and 119. Their best wins are vs 56, 64 and 90. Many of the teams on their schedule are in the 150-200 range.

West Virginia’s worst loss is to 31. There’s no justifying ranking Loyola above WV.

 

[Big ol arms]

Right...home floor means a lot without fans.

You seem to just be trolling now. Defending Loyola’s losses while criticizing WV’s? Makes no sense.

Three of Loyola’s four losses were to 56, 62 and 119. Their best wins are vs 56, 64 and 90. Many of the teams on their schedule are in the 150-200 range.

West Virginia’s worst loss is 27. There’s no justifying ranking Loyola above WV.

He is definitely trolling. I've tried to get him to respond to me in several threads about these Kenpom rankings but he won't. Only wants to reply to you.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Texas was ranked much higher at the time and WVU was up all game but lost on the final shot. Oklahoma was ranked higher when they beat us by 1 in double OT. You are only right about us losing to Florida at home. These games were also after our long covid layoff.

Ranked in the AP or ranked in the metrics?

 

[Boilermaker03]

Right...home floor means a lot without fans.

You seem to just be trolling now. Defending Loyola’s losses while criticizing WV’s? Makes no sense.

Three of Loyola’s four losses were to 56, 62 and 119. Their best wins are vs 56, 64 and 90. Many of the teams on their schedule are in the 150-200 range.

West Virginia’s worst loss is 27. There’s no justifying ranking Loyola above WV.

*sigh... Loyola's worst loss is to 119 yes. A loss to 56 and 62 on the road are quad 1 losses... The loss to 119 on the road is a quad 2 loss. (Unless they changed the way Q1 and Q2 games are calculated since 3 years ago) also most of Loyola's wins are by large margins.

West Virginia's losses at home to 25, 27 and 31 are Q1, Q1, Q2 respectively. Fans or no fans, teams are expected to win at home.

People view a Q2 road loss as better than a Q2 home loss.

I'm not trying to knock WVU nor praise Loyola. I was simply explaining why the movements may have happened that you were asking about.

 

[Boilermaker03]

He is definitely trolling. I've tried to get him to respond to me in several threads about these Kenpom rankings but he won't. Only wants to reply to you.

You have? Unless you direct quoted me, I probably missed it. I don't generally ignore anyone. Although, I have missed direct quotes in the past too when I have a bunch of people responding to me.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Well, again, if you treat Kenpom like gospel, the Big 10 comes out looking great. Not everyone worships at the altar of Pomeroy. At least, I think there are some left. Granted, not many, because they’re treated like Holocaust deniers.

At the end of the day, the goal of the sport is to win. And if you lose by double digits every time you play a quality team, you don’t deserve to be ranked highly. It’s that simple. It’s great that they blew out Louisville’s backups and all, but they’ve done nothing to show that they belong that high.

The Big 12 had several teams in the Kenpom top 10 earlier this year. Those teams excelled in the non-con and have dominated the bottom-feeders of the Big 12, while beating each other up. What should cause any of them to drop significantly?

If you mean gospel as in the best rating system we have, then yes. I don't think it's perfect though, so of course things could be a bit different in reality. I do think it's a much better metric than AP rankings.

 

[ExitFlagger]

*sigh... Loyola's worst loss is to 119 yes. A loss to 56 and 62 on the road are quad 1 losses... The loss to 119 on the road is a quad 2 loss. (Unless they changed the way Q1 and Q2 games are calculated since 3 years ago) also most of Loyola's wins are by large margins.

West Virginia's losses at home to 25, 27 and 31 are Q1, Q1, Q2 respectively. Fans or no fans, teams are expected to win at home.

People view a Q2 road loss as better than a Q2 home loss.

I'm not trying to knock WVU nor praise Loyola. I was simply explaining why the movements may have happened that you were asking about.

Just not sure why people put so much stock in something that is clearly flawed. There is nothing that can justify Loyola being ranked highly. They have neither impressive wins nor impressive losses. 1-2 in quad 1 games with 2 quad 2 losses. That adds up to #12? Are you kidding me?

Blowing out awful teams says nothing about the quality of your team. There are probably 50 teams that would have a better record with their schedule.

Loyola lost by 14 to Wisconsin, shooting under 39%. The next game they lose to a very mediocre Richmond at home. A few days later, they beat St Francis by almost 40, shooting nearly 70%. Apparently Kenpom’s algorithm was very impressed by this and similar wins, but it shouldn’t be.

And it sure as hell shouldn’t be more impressed by what Loyola’s doing than what WV and a host of other teams have done.

 

[bMORE607]

Just not sure why people put so much stock in something that is clearly flawed.

Imagine typing this with your main counter point being the AP poll.

 

[duckboy33]

Updated rankings through 3/1:

ACC:
1. Florida State (9th nationally)
2. Virginia (15th nationally)
3. Georgia Tech (30th nationally)
4. North Carolina (33rd nationally)
5. Duke (36th nationally)
6. Clemson (38th nationally)
7. Louisville (44th nationally)
8. Virginia Tech (46th nationally)
9. Syracuse (59th nationally)
10. Notre Dame (66th nationally)
11. NC State (71st nationally)
12. Pittsburgh (83rd nationally)
13. Boston College (127th nationally)
14. Miami FL (143rd nationally)
15. Wake Forest (156th nationally)

Big 12:
1. Baylor (3rd nationally)
2. Kansas (18th nationally)
3. West Virginia (19th nationally)
4. Texas Tech (23rd nationally)
5. Texas (25th nationally)
6. Oklahoma (31st nationally)
7. Oklahoma State (35th nationally)
8. TCU (125th nationally)
9. Iowa State (158th nationally)
10. Kansas State (183rd nationally)

Big East:
1. Villanova (10th nationally)
2. Creighton (14th nationally)
3. UConn (28th nationally)
4. Seton Hall (43rd nationally)
5. Xavier (55th nationally)
6. Providence (69th nationally)
7. St. John's (72nd nationally)
8. Marquette (78th nationally)
9. Georgetown (89th nationally)
10. Butler (110th nationally)
11. DePaul (130th nationally)

Big Ten:
1. Michigan (2nd nationally)
2. Iowa (5th nationally)
3. Illinois (6th nationally)
4. Ohio State (7th nationally)
5. Wisconsin (11th nationally)
6. Purdue (13th nationally)
7. Maryland (26th nationally)
8. Rutgers (32nd nationally)
9. Indiana (37th nationally)
10. Penn State (40th nationally)
11. Minnesota (57th nationally)
12. Michigan State (63rd nationally)
13. Northwestern (73rd nationally)
14. Nebraska (92nd nationally)

PAC 12:
1. Colorado (16th nationally)
2. USC (21st nationally)
3. Oregon (39th nationally)
4. UCLA (41st nationally)
5. Arizona (49th nationally)
6. Stanford (70th nationally)
7. Utah (81st nationally)
8. Arizona State (99th nationally)
9. Oregon State (100th nationally)
10. Washington State (107th nationally)
11. California (167th nationally)
12. Washington (182nd nationally)

SEC:
1. Alabama (8th nationally)
2. Arkansas (17th nationally)
3. Tennessee (24th nationally)
4. Florida (27th nationally)
5. LSU (29th nationally)
6. Missouri (48th nationally)
7. Kentucky (53rd nationally)
8. Ole Miss (58th nationally)
9. Auburn (65th nationally)
10. Mississippi State (67th nationally)
11. Georgia (88th nationally)
12. South Carolina (95th nationally)
13. Vanderbilt (98th nationally)
14. Texas A&M (129th nationally)

Top 20 MidMajors:
1. Gonzaga (1st nationally)
2. Houston (4th nationally)
3. Loyola Chicago (12th nationally)
4. San Diego State (20th nationally)
5. BYU (22nd nationally)
6. St. Bonaventure (34th nationally)
7. St. Louis (42nd nationally)
8. Utah State (45th nationally)
9. Memphis (47th nationally)
10. VCU (50th nationally)
11. SMU (51st nationally)
12. Boise State (52nd nationally)
13. Toledo (54th nationally)
14. Drake (56th nationally)
15. Wright State (60th nationally)
16. Colorado State (61st nationally)
17. Richmond (62nd nationally)
18. North Texas (64th nationally)
19. Davidson (68th nationally)
20. Wichita State (74th nationally)

 

[ExitFlagger]

Imagine typing this with your main counter point being the AP poll.

My counter point is to take all of it with a grain of salt. None are more than interesting but flawed tools.

The top 25 of both are actually similar. Kenpom likes Wisconsin and Loyola a lot more than the AP voters, which I’m not buying. And Kenpom doesn’t have Oklahoma or Oklahoma St in the top 25. OU may be overrated, but both have a lot of good wins.

OSU swept Texas Tech, swept OU, and beat KU, Arkansas, and Texas. 6 total losses and they went undefeated in non-con. Sure sounds more like a top 20 team than #36.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Imagine typing this with your main counter point being the AP poll.

HAHA I was going to make a similar argument, but you beat me to it.

 

[bMORE607]

My counter point is to take all of it with a grain of salt. None are more than interesting but flawed tools.

The top 25 of both are actually similar. Kenpom likes Wisconsin and Loyola a lot more than the AP voters, which I’m not buying. And Kenpom doesn’t have Oklahoma or Oklahoma St in the top 25. OU may be overrated, but both have a lot of good wins.

OSU swept Texas Tech, swept OU, and beat KU, Arkansas, and Texas. 6 total losses and they went undefeated in non-con. Sure sounds more like a top 20 team than #36.

No shit you take it with a grain of salt, but KenPom is just numbers. There is no bias involved, unlike the AP poll. You bring up OSU, they have great wins, but they got swept by a bad TCU team and barely beat KSU at home. The polls don't care that they barely won, a win is a win, but the numbers are going to kill them for barely beating a team ranked 183 at home.

 

[Boilermaker03]

My counter point is to take all of it with a grain of salt. None are more than interesting but flawed tools.

The top 25 of both are actually similar. Kenpom likes Wisconsin and Loyola a lot more than the AP voters, which I’m not buying. And Kenpom doesn’t have Oklahoma or Oklahoma St in the top 25. OU may be overrated, but both have a lot of good wins.

OSU swept Texas Tech, swept OU, and beat KU, Arkansas, and Texas. 6 total losses and they went undefeated in non-con. Sure sounds more like a top 20 team than #36.

Nobody is saying they believe metrics like Kenpom are perfect. However when trying to compare teams you have to use the best tool that you have available to you right? Systems like Kenpom are the best tools we have available. If you don't like it and think you know a better way, then by all means, go make one. Until then, you need to recognize that Kenpom, Sagarin, etc are the best tools we have at this time, flaws and all.

Here's an example (massively hypothetical but trying to get a point across). Team A plays the #1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 20, 25 ranked teams. They lose to all the teams above the top 15 giving them a 2-8 record. Team B plays #2, 7, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ranked teams. They lose to the teams ranked above the top 19 giving them a 6-4 record. Which team will the AP have ranked higher and which team will a system like Kenpom have ranked higher?

The AP doesn't have a great way to deal with teams in such a way. Metrics can show that team A is actually the better team because they are better than any team below a rank of 15 where as team B is only better than teams below 19.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Nobody is saying they believe metrics like Kenpom are perfect. However when trying to compare teams you have to use the best tool that you have available to you right? Systems like Kenpom are the best tools we have available. If you don't like it and think you know a better way, then by all means, go make one. Until then, you need to recognize that Kenpom, Sagarin, etc are the best tools we have at this time, flaws and all.

Here's an example (massively hypothetical but trying to get a point across). Team A plays the #1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 20, 25 ranked teams. They lose to all the teams above the top 15 giving them a 2-8 record. Team B plays #2, 7, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ranked teams. They lose to the teams ranked above the top 19 giving them a 6-4 record. Which team will the AP have ranked higher and which team will a system like Kenpom have ranked higher?

The AP doesn't have a great way to deal with teams in such a way. Metrics can show that team A is actually the better team because they are better than any team below a rank of 15 where as team B is only better than teams below 19.

The issue is that when somebody gives an opinion, like when I said that I think KU's wins are as good as anyone's, you fire back with "actually, it looks like ____ and ____ have better wins."

Sorry, I don't buy that a win over Loyola, Purdue or Wisconsin is better than a win over West Virginia.

 

[Boilermaker03]

The issue is that when somebody gives an opinion, like when I said that I think KU's wins are as good as anyone's, you fire back with "actually, it looks like ____ and ____ have better wins."

Sorry, I don't buy that a win over Loyola, Purdue or Wisconsin is better than a win over West Virginia.

That's you're opinion. You may be right, but you don't have anything to back that up besides your own eye text. Can we at least agree that your method could possibly be majorly flawed too?

 

[ExitFlagger]

No shit you take it with a grain of salt, but KenPom is just numbers. There is no bias involved, unlike the AP poll. You bring up OSU, they have great wins, but they got swept by a bad TCU team and barely beat KSU at home. The polls don't care that they barely won, a win is a win, but the numbers are going to kill them for barely beating a team ranked 183 at home.

No bias, but it also can't account for injuries, Covid, garbage time, team improvement, etc. Teams can change drastically over the span of a month or two but Kenpom might barely reflect it.

 

[Boilermaker03]

No bias, but it also can't account for injuries, Covid, garbage time, team improvement, etc. Teams can change drastically over the span of a month or two but Kenpom might barely reflect it.

You're right about covid and garbage time, but it absolutely takes into account team improvement. How do you think teams adjusted O and D move around?

 

[bMORE607]

No bias, but it also can't account for injuries, Covid, garbage time, team improvement, etc. Teams can change drastically over the span of a month or two but Kenpom might barely reflect it.

Absolutely blows my mind you think the AP poll is less flawed then analytics. Just legit mind boggling. 2003 is calling.

 

[ExitFlagger]

That's you're opinion. You may be right, but you don't have anything to back that up besides your own eye text. Can we at least agree that your method could possibly be majorly flawed too?

Never said otherwise, but it's more than eye test. I think anyone given a blind resume of Loyola and WV would say that WV's the more accomplished and likely better team.

Sagarin has Loyola at 41, btw. Makes a lot more sense.

 

[ExitFlagger]

You're right about covid and garbage time, but it absolutely takes into account team improvement. How do you think teams adjusted O and D move around?

That doesn't necessarily indicate improvement. That often means you're playing a lesser team. Or natural game to game fluctuations.

KU, for example, is playing at a much higher level now than when they were blown out by Texas in Jan. But Kenpom doesn't reflect that. In fact, I think they're ranked lower now than then. I'm not saying that Kenpom won't reflect improvement at all, but not nearly to the extent it should in some cases.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Absolutely blows my mind you think the AP poll is less flawed then analytics. Just legit mind boggling. 2003 is calling.

I never said it was less flawed. I do think that the current AP top 25 looks more legit than the Kenpom top 25, but that doesn't mean I think the system is less flawed.

 

[Boilermaker03]

That doesn't necessarily indicate improvement. That often means you're playing a lesser team. Or natural game to game fluctuations.

KU, for example, is playing at a much higher level now than when they were blown out by Texas in Jan. But Kenpom doesn't reflect that. In fact, I think they're ranked lower now than then. I'm not saying that Kenpom won't reflect improvement at all, but not nearly to the extent it should in some cases.

Here's an example for you. Early in the season Purdue was pretty low in the Kenpom rankings. Almost 40 if I remember correctly. They improved drastically however and now find themselves much higher in the rankings because their adjusted O and D ratings changed quite a bit.

 

[ChiTownSean]

it’s good to have a good mix of sources. i trust KP a lot because he has essentially predicted vegas spreads especially in the smaller conferences. sagarin is another good one for sure

where things get messy is the weighted value of playing certain teams. i’ve looked at the raw efficiency stats of teams and they are just crazy looking (watch out for wright state lol) but everyone would agree there needs to be an adjustment. so the question is how much credit do you give to a teams performance based on their opponent? too much and all his highest teams would be big ten and gonzaga and baylor. too little and colgate is top ten for dominating the patriot. so somewhere in between. he runs his site in good faith and would probably say SOS adjustments is the hardest to pin down

 

[bMORE607]

it’s good to have a good mix of sources. i trust KP a lot because he has essentially predicted vegas spreads especially in the smaller conferences. sagarin is another good one for sure

where things get messy is the weighted value of playing certain teams. i’ve looked at the raw efficiency stats of teams and they are just crazy looking (watch out for wright state lol) but everyone would agree there needs to be an adjustment. so the question is how much credit do you give to a teams performance based on their opponent? too much and all his highest teams would be big ten and gonzaga and baylor. too little and colgate is top ten for dominating the patriot. so somewhere in between. he runs his site in good faith and would probably say SOS adjustments is the hardest to pin down

WTF are you talking about with Colgate and Wright State?

 

[ChiTownSean]

WTF are you talking about with Colgate and Wright State?

if you only look at points per possession with no regard for opponent, they are elite

 

[ExitFlagger]

Here's an example for you. Early in the season Purdue was pretty low in the Kenpom rankings. Almost 40 if I remember correctly. They improved drastically however and now find themselves much higher in the rankings because their adjusted O and D ratings changed quite a bit.

It's also possible that Kenpom rated them too low in preseason and it took awhile to work up.

 

[bMORE607]

if you only look at points per possession with no regard for opponent, they are elite

Ok, what does "and colgate is top ten for dominating the patriot" mean?

 

[ChiTownSean]

Ok, what does "and colgate is top ten for dominating the patriot" mean?

if there is no SOS adjustment or any weight added to the points per possession on kenpom, colgate has the fourth highest number in the country because they have only played conference opponents