It is the second week of February and I have watched my final CBB game of the year.
- Thread starter GhostOf301
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It took you guys this long to have a losing record?
I'm more of a college basketball fan than a Duke-or-nothing fan. I still plan on watching 25+ games a week, even if Duke loses from here on out.
The thing that’s hard is - if I had some faith that everybody on this team would be returning, I’d still greatly enjoy watching this team grow. Horrible basketball and all.
That said, I’m just skeptical that the team won’t be gutted by 2nd rounders and UFA’s. I’ll still watch every game and look forward to them, but this is the real bummer for me.
That said, I’m just skeptical that the team won’t be gutted by 2nd rounders and UFA’s. I’ll still watch every game and look forward to them, but this is the real bummer for me.
Funny and I appreciate all the self deprecating Duke humor as that is really the only way to deal with it. However, your class next year is much better than this year. Young but you guys have some uber talented players coming, especialy once Baldwin and Keels commit.
I'm with you on watching college ball though. I'm not a bigger college basketball than UNC fan I don't think but watch a crapload of games regardless.
It could be worse. You could be 5-13 like us with no hope for next year being much better. Our players suck.
Not me. I am a glutton for punishment.
Lol negative. It’s very watchable. In fact, I’m watching it right now. 🥸
Tough one tonight. They finally make some plays down the stretch and get a tough call to lose it. That is how it goes when you are struggling though. Last year it seems almost every break went against UNC and it seems kind of like it this year for you guys.
If they knew how to box out and grab a damn rebound there isn't even a controversy. They can't even play fundamentally sound basketball.
Next year should be better, for sure. I think COVID has disproportionately affected younger teams with less practice time and continuity. We're obviously not the only younger team struggling. And yes, if we land Keels and Baldwin, our incoming class will be significantly better. I think Keels is really wanting to play with his high school teammate, Jeremy Roach. And I've always felt like Baldwin was a heavy Duke lean.
I expect to lose Hurt and Johnson. Don't think anyone after that should leave. But, part of me wonders if it's simply too many talented players in the system. Roach, Steward, Moore, Brakefield, and Williams are all talented guys that should return for another season. Just not sure how it might work if you throw four 5-star recruits into the mix. Regardless, next year should be better. And I would add that most of the blue bloods will be a heck of a lot better in 2022.
Last year definitely made me scratch my head at many of those close losses. The only explanation I can come up with for us last year and Kentucky this year is bad teams just find ways to lose.
We played well against OSU the other night. I'm glad we got that out of the way to go back to rage induced sucking.
It’s now very clear that OP is to Duke basketball what I am to my bets placed.
See I don’t see the correlation with covid and blue bloods sucking.
If we were five games into the season, sure I could see where it would take more time for the younger teams to gel. But hell we are 15-20 games into the season and esp duke and UK don’t seem any better than game one.
Do you not think teams should improve/gel/come together/get better by playing games much more so than extra practices before the season?
I could see each winning a few more games to start the season, but I don’t think a normal offseason would have Devin Askew or Caleb Love on the Cousy award list, or make Clarke and Boston 30%+ 3pt shooters, or have jalen Johnson on their Naismith award list. Plus Kansas isn’t even very young and they suck as well. Those four would still have the exact same rosters, while it obv couldn’t hurt I don’t think a normal offseason would’ve made the blue bloods title contenders this year. Maybe not losing records, but not title contenders either i
I don’t have an answe for the stars aligning and all the blue bloods sucking the same season, but I don’t see the correlation with covid either beyond coincidence.
One of the common struggles for Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina, is all three are relying on unproven freshmen point guards. Roach, Askew, and Love need A LOT more reps to get up to speed, if they were ever going to have a fighting chance as a top 25 team. And yes, perhaps a whole season wouldn't change much. But, when you compound a lack of practice time with injuries, it's just a very tough situation. I mean, Keion Brooks and Terrence Clarke, for example, never even played in the same game together. Older teams are more equipped to deal with less practice time and injuries.
If this had been a normal season, I think it's fair to say none of those three schools would be in the top 10. But, I do believe all three would have a few more wins. Duke has really struggled in close games. Of our 7 losses, all of them, with the exception of one, were by 7 points or less. And 6 of our 8 wins were by double-digits. That's the difference between being safely in the tournament - to not even being a bubble team. With practice time not being reduced, my gut says: UNC is a top 25 team, Duke is at least safely in the tournament (we are #34 in KenPom), and Kentucky would probably safely be in the tournament if Brooks/Clarke were healthy and if the freshmen guards were able to benefit from continuity.
How many more reps do they need when we are into February and each has played 15+ games. How can they improve so much from missed practice reps, but not improve from game reps.
If we were 5-6 games into the season I could buy it. I personally thought UK would come together and win the SEC once they got some games under their belt. Instead they are losing to uga and arky.
Same for duke except they are losing to to the Miami’s of the world.
UNC has a really solid front court. Hell uk and duke all have really talented players as well. But if you can’t put it together 15 games into the season I have a hard time believing the same rosters would be top 25 with a normal offseason. A few more wins here or there, sure, maybe. The bluebloods we’ve come to expect, not even close.
Your argument would have merit if the teams were actually improving during the season. I mean game reps have to be way more important than practice reps right?
Here are the top 10 recruiting classes from 2020, according to rivals. The first number, after the school listed, indicates how many freshmen on the 2021 team are in the top 5 in minutes played per game. In parenthesis, I've included their record, as well as their KenPom ranking.
1. Kentucky- 3 (6-13, 62nd)
2. Duke- 2 (8-8, 34th)
3. UNC- 2 (12-7, 43rd)
4. Auburn- 3 (11-11, 60th)
5. Arizona- 2 (14-7, 41st)
6. Tennessee- 0 (14-5, 17th)
7. Texas Tech- 0 (14-6, 19th)
8. Arkansas- 1 (16-5, 25th)
9. Arizona State- 2 (7-9, 88th)
10. Oklahoma State- 2 (13-6, 44th)
Looks like all of these teams are struggling, with the exception of the ones that aren't overly reliant on freshmen (Tennessee, Texas Tech, Arkansas). Admittedly, it's hard to make much of this because this is the only season where freshmen have had to deal with this. So, perhaps this freshmen class isn't anything special. That very well could be the case. Perhaps being reliant on freshmen, in general, is a recipe for an unsuccessful season. Maybe. But, in 2020, Duke did just fine with 3 freshmen starters; we were a projected 3 seed. Villanova was a projected 2 seed, with two freshmen starting. Arizona was a projected 7 seed, with their top 3 scorers all being freshmen. In 2019, Duke was the #1 team heading into the NCAAs; the top four leading scorers on the team were all freshmen. UNC was a 1 seed in '19, with two of their top four scorers being freshmen. Kentucky was a 2 seed that same year, and they had three freshmen starters.
So yes, I find there to be negative correlation between being reliant on top-ranked recruiting classes and winning games. That wasn't so much the case in previous years. There might be other explanations. Just can't help but think the speed of the game and the continuity is still very new for most of the freshmen. The freshmen typically report to campus in June, if I'm not mistaken. This year, they came in August. And the practices and 5-on-5 scrimmages weren't happening on a daily basis, as we're accustomed to seeing. In a normal year, by the time the season starts in early November, a freshmen may have already had 200+ hours of 5-on-5 scrimmages. This year, perhaps they've only had 50+ hours. So where a freshmen is today might be comparable to where a freshmen is in November or December of a normal season. I don't know the specifics of how much practice time has been reduced (when you account for the lost time in the summer), but I don't think it's an irrelevant factor.
That’s a very good post, and I understand what you mean and agree to an extent.
The only problem I have with your scenario is why are none of the blue chip prospects improving by leaps and bounds during the season, since they are getting the 5 on 5 reps. 15-20 games worth.
I just can’t believe that in a normal offseason, with 2 more months of practice, Devin askew or BJ Boston would be all SEC, or Jalen Johnson or Caleb love would be all ACC. And on and on
And what about guys like Suggs, Mobley, and Cooper (once eligible) who have pretty much played lights out since game 1, especially Suggs. Why were they not severely hampered by the weird offseason.
Personally I just think it’s a weak class compared to other years, which imo is why the freshman reliant teams are struggling. Also the g league plucked a couple of prospects I’m assuming are studs.
I will agree covid obv hasn’t helped, but I just don’t agree that 2 months of offseason practice would have uk and duke in the top 25 when we are 15-20 games into the season and neither team seems much better than they did the first game of the season.
Sure teams have done well in the past relying on frosh, but there’s no zion, Wall, AD, ant Edwards etc in this class. Or even very many guys like Dotson, tre Jones, maxey, achiwa, etc.
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Hard to say. I won't completely dismiss the idea that maybe it's just not a great class. But, I would also argue that players develop the most during the offseason. The basketball season is only five months long. So during that 7-month break, a lot can happen. Look at the difference between Luka Garza from the end of his sophomore year, to the beginning of his junior year. He was having monster games in November and December of his junior year. He didn't suddenly catch fire in January or February. If incoming freshmen get minimal amounts of practice and 5-on-5 play, their game is probably closer to how they were as a high school senior than to a typical 5-star freshmen. The defense is often the hardest transition for freshmen, as they're used to overpowering inferior competition. You have to be very disciplined and consistent to contain the opposing players at the D1 level. That is what the Duke freshmen struggle with the most, IMO. And FWIW, I think BJ Boston is playing much, much better. Jalen Johnson could easily be All-ACC, if he played 30 minutes a night. And I see improvements in the other Duke freshmen as well, especially Mark Williams.
And yes, Suggs., Mobley and Cunningham are doing just fine. But, you need multiple reliable pieces to have a successful team. Just seems odd that there have been multiple freshmen-led teams in the past that have been very successful. Not so much this year. Maybe it's below-average high school class. Maybe the stoppages have significantly curtailed their progressions. Maybe a mixture of the two.
Yea but those successful freshmen lead teams in the past had freshmen STUDS.
Like zion, Barrett, AD, okafor,KAT, Wall, Winslow, Fox, on and on and on.
Im just not seeing that caliber of frosh this year outside of Suggs, Barnes, Scottie Lewis, Cooper, and Mobley. And even those guys are on the low end of the players I listed earlier.
Like zion, Barrett, AD, okafor,KAT, Wall, Winslow, Fox, on and on and on.
Im just not seeing that caliber of frosh this year outside of Suggs, Barnes, Scottie Lewis, Cooper, and Mobley. And even those guys are on the low end of the players I listed earlier.
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I may decide to make a liar out of myself with tonight's game. Maybe I will flip flop and change my mind again. A must win as all games will be from here on out.
I think we can afford to lose one more regular season game, but tonight's is a must win. Probably neep a couple wins in the ACCT as well.
It'd be great if we all snuck in and made some major noise in the tournament. Maybe some team with a OAD or two won it all in the year of the veteran teams. I'd be ok with a Champions Classic final four.
Duke or Kentucky as 12 seeds. You'd have some really upset people sitting in those top seeds in our regions.
Thy'd be'd pissed. We won't make it, but still gonna be funny when you guys do.
I totally mix up Lewis and Barnes from FSU, then edited to add Barnes back in but forgot to delete Lewis. Good catch, thanks.
UK can definitely win the SECT. There’s no juggernaut in the SEC plus how motivated will teams like Alabama be. Plus y’all are playing much better now and have plenty of talent, obv. I will have lots of $$$ on UK to win the secT.
I hope you don’t, but I can see it happening. Unfortunately I can also see UK losing to Arkansas in the first round or some BS.
don’t you remember Gil telling us about Garza playing pregnant his soph year bc of a tumor in his abdomen. It was a draft thread that was pretty funny. So I’d have to say that played a roll. Plus why would I expect a junior to suddenly catch fire in Jan-feb. Hed already been there two whole years.
I was just saying if the two months of weird off season practice is the reason this freshmen class looks so pedestrian, then why haven’t they “peaked” after 3 months of game play.
And I disagree about johnson. If he could easily be all-acc if he played 30 mins a night why wasnt he playing 30 mins a night? Not like y’all were blowing the doors off people and pulling starters with 5 mins left every game. He might could have been all acc on a terrible team like wake if they let him shoot 30 times a game Or something.
But your right about the players you mentioned starting to play better, esp Boston and Williams. So maybe they are just now starting to catch up to a normal years progression, who knows. It’s all so new and weird it’s hard to make anything out of any of it.
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