dukedevilz's preseason top 50, part 1

[dukedevilz]

I've decided to unveil my preseason top 50. My main objective for putting this together was to get an accurate breakdown of the complete rosters of elite teams. Roster turnover is outrageously high for teams competing in the power conferences. Graduating seniors, NBA Early entrants, transfers out, transfers in, redshirts, top prospects coming in. It's hard to follow. I've excluded any players that are injured ( Shareef O'neal/Tyger Campbell- UCLA), sitting out due to transfer restrictions (CJ Walker- Ohio State), and just about every walk-on who doesn't receive meaningful minute (Brad Calipari- Kentucky).

I would note that for the HS Rankings, I prefer to use the RSCI Composite Rankings. But that only goes 100 deep. If a player isn't in the top 100, then I defer to 247, which ranks 500 or so athletes per class... Also, I only list "Previous Season" if a player redshirted, or their previous season in college was at another school.

Click on each image to enlarge.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Thanks for posting! This season is going to be great. Been a long time since we had this many legit F4 contenders at the onset. So many good and deep teams this year.

 

[dukedevilz]

Can we all just pause and look at Nevada's roster. 8 of their 9 players with D1 experience averaged at least 13 ppg in their last season of college basketball. I doubt that has EVER happened.

 

[CardinalBoiler]

Can we all just pause and look at Nevada's roster. 8 of their 9 players with D1 experience averaged at least 13 ppg in their last season of college basketball. I doubt that has EVER happened.

Also the extreme contrast of class balance between Nevada and Kentucky. Pretty wild.

 

[jhmossy]

I would say there's a high non-zero chance that you are a virgin.

Good stuff though.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Can we all just pause and look at Nevada's roster. 8 of their 9 players with D1 experience averaged at least 13 ppg in their last season of college basketball. I doubt that has EVER happened.

Yep, you might even have them ranked too low at #3 by the time it's all said and done. Could easily see them spending significant time at #1 this year.

 

[dukedevilz]

Thanks for posting! This season is going to be great. Been a long time since we had this many legit F4 contenders at the onset. So many good and deep teams this year.

Looking forward to the season. Should be a good one. And I have a part 2 for my rankings as well.

It's crazy hard to predict the Final Four. Turnover is high. Some guys progress incredibly well, others plateau. Some freshmen/transfers are better than anticipated. Either way, it should be another great season! Definitely looking forward to November 6th!

I would say there's a high non-zero chance that you are a virgin.

Good stuff though.

lol didn't we talk about this in another thread? I'm married with two small kids. I will add that my wife frequently falls asleep early at night, and that usually leaves me with 2-3 hours to do whatever, as I usually don't go to bed til around 1. I work with numbers all day... I have an unhealthy obsession with numbers and basketball. So, I guess the two just go together.

 

[viviajm]

I've decided to unveil my preseason top 50. My main objective for putting this together was to get an accurate breakdown of the complete rosters of elite teams. Roster turnover is outrageously high for teams competing in the power conferences. Graduating seniors, NBA Early entrants, transfers out, transfers in, redshirts, top prospects coming in. It's hard to follow. I've excluded any players that are injured ( Shareef O'neal/Tyger Campbell- UCLA), sitting out due to transfer restrictions (CJ Walker- Ohio State), and just about every walk-on who doesn't receive meaningful minute (Brad Calipari- Kentucky).

I would note that for the HS Rankings, I prefer to use the RSCI Composite Rankings. But that only goes 100 deep. If a player isn't in the top 100, then I defer to 247, which ranks 500 or so athletes per class... Also, I only list "Previous Season" if a player redshirted, or their previous season in college was at another school.

Click on each image to enlarge.

Great job. Lot of work. It will be a great year. I just wish more fans would enjoy the regular season successes of their team more, and not put the onus of a good year on the results of the NCAA Annual March Fund Raiser.

 

[dukedevilz]

So for those who think this is too much scrolling, here's my top 50:

1. Kansas
2. Gonzaga
3. Nevada
4. Kentucky
5. Duke
6. Virginia
7. Tennessee
8. North Carolina
9. Villanova
10. Oregon
11. Kansas State
12. LSU
13. Michigan State
14. Auburn
15. Florida State
16. Mississippi State
17. West Virginia
18. Indiana
19. NC State
20. Virginia Tech
21. Marquette
22. TCU
23. Syracuse
24. Florida
25. Loyola Chicago

26. Washington
27. Butler
28. Maryland
29. UCLA
30. Clemson
31. Nebraska
32. Buffalo
33. Texas
34. Michigan
35. Purdue
36. Western Kentucky
37. St.John's
38. Minnesota
39. Arizona State
40. Xavier
41. Miami
42. Iowa State
43. Seton Hall
44. Southern Cal
45. Cincinnati
46. Vanderbilt
47. Davidson
48. Texas Tech
49. Arizona
50. Marshall

I considered an additional 30-35 teams (even some obscure mid-majors like South Dakota State, UC-Irvine, and Illinois State). I didn't have the complete roster out like I did for the top 50, but I looked at the core 4-6 players. The teams that just narrowly missed my top 50 were:

Ohio State
Saint Louis
Central Florida
Wisconsin
Houston

Also, New Mexico was in my original top 50. But losing JaQuan Lyle was too much of a loss for me to consider them anymore.

 

[NorthJerseyGator]

Why Florida at 24, don't you think they can light it up and will be more balanced this season now that all the bigs are healthy and can contribute, which is what we were missing last season. Will have 5 guys shoot over 40% from 3 and some real beef down low mixing it up too.

 

[dukedevilz]

Why Florida at 24, don't you think they can light it up and will be more balanced this season now that all the bigs are healthy and can contribute, which is what we were missing last season. Will have 5 guys shoot over 40% from 3 and some real beef down low mixing it up too.

It's impossible to project, really. I'm sure I'm wrong on quite a few teams. I like Florida. They have many capable players. I think just about every team in my top 25 is good enough to make it to the Elite 8.

 

[Wall2Boogie]

You must of forgot Louisville. Everyone knows they will take the acc.

Gonzaga? Like normal they will choke like normal

 

[ThroughBlue]

Looks good to me. Good job

 

[UL_1986]

You must of forgot Louisville. Everyone knows they will take the acc.

Gonzaga? Like normal they will choke like normal

If you guys lose to us this year, what sort of meltdown would take place? Hypothetically speaking.

 

[rockycard]

It's impossible to project, really. I'm sure I'm wrong on quite a few teams. I like Florida. They have many capable players. I think just about every team in my top 25 is good enough to make it to the Elite 8.

Do you have Louisville on probation from your poll? Lol

 

[ThroughBlue]

If you guys lose to us this year, what sort of meltdown would take place? Hypothetically speaking.

Not as big as if we lose to duke on November 6

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

So for those who think this is too much scrolling, here's my top 50:

1. Kansas
2. Gonzaga
3. Nevada
4. Kentucky
5. Duke
6. Virginia
7. Tennessee
8. North Carolina
9. Villanova
10. Oregon
11. Kansas State
12. LSU
13. Michigan State
14. Auburn
15. Florida State
16. Mississippi State
17. West Virginia
18. Indiana
19. NC State
20. Virginia Tech
21. Marquette
22. TCU
23. Syracuse
24. Florida
25. Loyola Chicago

26. Washington
27. Butler
28. Maryland
29. UCLA
30. Clemson
31. Nebraska
32. Buffalo
33. Texas
34. Michigan
35. Purdue
36. Western Kentucky
37. St.John's
38. Minnesota
39. Arizona State
40. Xavier
41. Miami
42. Iowa State
43. Seton Hall
44. Southern Cal
45. Cincinnati
46. Vanderbilt
47. Davidson
48. Texas Tech
49. Arizona
50. Marshall

I considered an additional 30-35 teams (even some obscure mid-majors like South Dakota State, UC-Irvine, and Illinois State). I didn't have the complete roster out like I did for the top 50, but I looked at the core 4-6 players. The teams that just narrowly missed my top 50 were:

Ohio State
Saint Louis
Central Florida
Wisconsin
Houston

Also, New Mexico was in my original top 50. But losing JaQuan Lyle was too much of a loss for me to consider them anymore.

Am I getting trolled?

 

[UL_1986]

Not as big as if we lose to duke on November 6

No way.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Am I getting trolled?

No, he has Ferris State at the top of his D2 poll (yes, even ahead of DePaul)

 

[HRTheCard]

Not even top 50? We'll see.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

No, he has Ferris State at the top of his D2 poll (yes, even ahead of DePaul)

Never complimenting you again

 

[IUfanBorden]

I've decided to unveil my preseason top 50. My main objective for putting this together was to get an accurate breakdown of the complete rosters of elite teams. Roster turnover is outrageously high for teams competing in the power conferences. Graduating seniors, NBA Early entrants, transfers out, transfers in, redshirts, top prospects coming in. It's hard to follow. I've excluded any players that are injured ( Shareef O'neal/Tyger Campbell- UCLA), sitting out due to transfer restrictions (CJ Walker- Ohio State), and just about every walk-on who doesn't receive meaningful minute (Brad Calipari- Kentucky).

I would note that for the HS Rankings, I prefer to use the RSCI Composite Rankings. But that only goes 100 deep. If a player isn't in the top 100, then I defer to 247, which ranks 500 or so athletes per class... Also, I only list "Previous Season" if a player redshirted, or their previous season in college was at another school.

Click on each image to enlarge.

Appreciate the time and effort, man. Really cool. Thanks!!

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Never complimenting you again

just teasing you man. You know I love your Wolverines. Had them making it to the championship in my pool last year.

I do agree with you that Michigan will still be good even with the big losses of Wagner and Rahim. If Matthews can build on his March performance they have as good a backcourt as anyone in the country. Love Zavier at PG. I also think Poole and Livins (sp?) are going to step and fill a lot of the void.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

just teasing you man. You know I love your Wolverines. Had them making it to the championship in my pool last year.

I do agree with you that Michigan will still be good even with the big losses of Wagner and Rahim. If Matthews can build on his March performance they have as good a backcourt as anyone in the country. Love Zavier at PG. I also think Poole and Livins (sp?) are going to step and fill a lot of the void.

Going to need the one of the two freshmen (Johns or Brazdeikas) to step up but I think the talent level is pretty similar (if not more) than last year. Probably won't catch the NCAA Tournament breaks we got but a top 15-20 team IMO.


Oh and check this out:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d2/afca-coaches

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Appreciate the time and effort, man. Really cool. Thanks!!

Needed more time and effort if he has Michigan 34th

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Going to need the one of the two freshmen (Johns or Brazdeikas) to step up but I think the talent level is pretty similar (if not more) than last year. Probably won't catch the NCAA Tournament breaks we got but a top 15-20 team IMO.


Oh and check this out:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d2/afca-coaches

You'll never beat Kutztown!!!

 

[shun1]

love my UNC TAR HEELS!

!!!!!!!!!!!! GO TAR HEELS !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[dukedevilz]

Do you have Louisville on probation from your poll? Lol

Bart Torvik has Louisville projected at 51st. I don't think it's unreasonable, to be honest.

Louisville will be a solid in the near future, I'm certain. But where is their firepower coming from this year? VJ King? Dwayne Sutton? Darius Perry? Jordan Nwora? Mid-major grad transfers? I just don't see it. Those are decent players, but I'm not convinced that they're elite - at least not collectively. Louisville was an NIT last year and they lost 4 starters. I think they'll be an NIT this year, and probably return to the Tournament next year.

 

[dukedevilz]

You must of forgot Louisville. Everyone knows they will take the acc.

Gonzaga? Like normal they will choke like normal

Tournament wins in the last 4 years:
Gonzaga- 12
Kentucky- 10

 

[KisteK]

Maybe this'll be the year VaTech actually shows me reason to believe they'll (ever?) be anything other than a Yearly Bubble Team.
At this point, I don't even care who they bring in.

 

[Big_Blue79]

I just wish more fans would enjoy the regular season successes of their team more, and not put the onus of a good year on the results of the NCAA Annual March Fund Raiser.

I have never seen you post here before, and I know nothing about you but this post, but I know who your team is.

 

[Kronic22]

Yep, you might even have them ranked too low at #3 by the time it's all said and done. Could easily see them spending significant time at #1 this year.

I'm not convinced. I think they are very overrated. They needed overtime to take out an average Texas team Last year in the round of 64.

Adding a bunch of mid major transfers doesn't impress me much.

Definately tourney worthy and a top 25 team... But not a final four contender.

They would finish 4th or worse in the big 12 (or other high majors), since many teams can go 8 deep with quality and match their depth.

 

[Kronic22]

The sec is interesting. Got teams like Tennessee and Auburn who are returning a lot, and then teams like LSU and UK who are turning over the whole roster.

The league is definately on the up.

 

[UL_1986]

Bart Torvik has Louisville projected at 51st. I don't think it's unreasonable, to be honest.

Louisville will be a solid in the near future, I'm certain. But where is their firepower coming from this year? VJ King? Dwayne Sutton? Darius Perry? Jordan Nwora? Mid-major grad transfers? I just don't see it. Those are decent players, but I'm not convinced that they're elite - at least not collectively. Louisville was an NIT last year and they lost 4 starters. I think they'll be an NIT this year, and probably return to the Tournament next year.

I see us as a 2nd round out. We have a better frontcourt this year.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

I'm not convinced. I think they are very overrated. They needed overtime to take out an average Texas team Last year in the round of 64.

Adding a bunch of mid major transfers doesn't impress me much.

Definately tourney worthy and a top 25 team... But not a final four contender.

They would finish 4th or worse in the big 12 (or other high majors), since many teams can go 8 deep with quality and match their depth.

They were missing their starting PG for the tourney and they still made it pretty deep. They also have a top 20 rated freshman coming in so I wouldn't say they only have mid major transfers arriving.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

The sec is interesting. Got teams like Tennessee and Auburn who are returning a lot, and then teams like LSU and UK who are turning over the whole roster.

The league is definately on the up.

I would put Vanderbilt in that same LSU, KY category in terms of having tons of highly rated talent coming in this year.

 

[dukedevilz]

The sec is interesting. Got teams like Tennessee and Auburn who are returning a lot, and then teams like LSU and UK who are turning over the whole roster.

The league is definately on the up.

I know many of us ACC guys like to poke fun of SEC Basketball, but they are loaded this year. Wouldn't be terribly surprising to see something like 5 SEC teams in the Sweet 16, possibly 2 in the Final Four. They should battle it out with the ACC for best conference this year.

 

[Bert Higginbotha]

Wow, good work.

I really appreciate what you bring to this board.

 

[Bert Higginbotha]

The sec is interesting. Got teams like Tennessee and Auburn who are returning a lot, and then teams like LSU and UK who are turning over the whole roster.

The league is definately on the up.

UK returned a bunch (3 five star Sophs.).

 

[Bert Higginbotha]

I would put Vanderbilt in that same LSU, KY category in terms of having tons of highly rated talent coming in this year.

But you don't know jackshit about the SEC!