Duke’s opponents lack of 3-point shooting

[Quavarius]

Duke, on average, is not a great 3-point shooting team. But guess who else isn’t? Our opponents. Duke’s opponents shoot .288 from 3. Duke’s 3-point defense ranks 9th nationally.

We may not be making our 3’s, but our opponents aren’t either. That’s why I’m not as concerned with our lack of 3-point shooting because our opponents don’t do it as well against us either.

While everyone is concerned with our lack of 3-point shooting, I’m going to keep an eye on our 3-point defense, which doesn’t get nearly enough attention as our lack of 3-point shooting.

 

[Bert Higginbotha]

Apparently Duke is defending the three well.

Many teams light Kentucky up, but UK is getting out more on the three in January and early February.

 

[JimboBBN]

Duke's defense definitely has something to do with that percentage. Their athleticism and size can give shooters all kinds of fits. I think Duke's lack of shooting gets more coverage simply because people want to talk about a weakness the team might have.

That said, if Duke loses in the tournament, it will definitely be because they aren't hitting outside shots.

 

[GE Nole]

Three-point shooting defense isn’t really what people think it is. There’s been some studies showing that once the shot is taken it’s laregly luck. The actual “defense” is in preventing the shot from being taken.

Basically, the defense rotates fast enough to be so close on the catch that the opposing team is prevented from getting an open look.

 

[coryfly]

Three-point shooting defense isn’t really what people think it is. There’s been some studies showing that once the shot is taken it’s laregly luck. The actual “defense” is in preventing the shot from being taken.

Basically, the defense rotates fast enough to be so close on the catch that the opposing team is prevented from getting an open look.

Yeah, I've seen some of those studies posted on UNC boards when people are freaking out about our defense. I agree the key is not as much contested or non-contested shots as much as prevention. I think very heavily contested defense may impact a shot but anything other than that doens't really impact shooters at this level.

 

[GE Nole]

Yeah, I've seen some of those studies posted on UNC boards when people are freaking out about our defense. I agree the key is not as much contested or non-contested shots as much as prevention. I think very heavily contested defense may impact a shot but anything other than that doens't really impact shooters at this level.

Exactly. You think Kyle Guy cares if you have a hand in his face? Folks don’t like to hear it but sometimes you can play good D and still get torched by a hot shooting team.

 

[Afamu]

Duke's defense definitely has something to do with that percentage. Their athleticism and size can give shooters all kinds of fits. I think Duke's lack of shooting gets more coverage simply because people want to talk about a weakness the team might have.

That said, if Duke loses in the tournament, it will definitely be because they aren't hitting outside shots.

Most teams that lose don’t shoot well in that particular game.

 

[jhmossy]

Duke doesn’t need to shoot well from 3 to win any game this year. Sure, they can lose if they don’t shoot well from 3 but their defense is borderline elite and their offense is still insanely efficient. The bigger issue is when Duke settles for 3s instead of drives the ball. Based on my observations, they seem to do this more in games against inferior teams for some reason.

 

[JimboBBN]

Most teams that lose don’t shoot well in that particular game.

Not necessarily. Turnovers, defense, rebounding, all factor into winning and losing. Shooting obviously factors into every game, but for teams like Duke, it factors in more.

 

[knockoutgame]

contested/uncontested might not be what's it's cracked up to be for some of the best shooters around, but i guarantee it's definitely something for less gifted shooters. the top tier shooters rarely let themselves get rushed. usually because they have a lightening fast trigger and have a higher confidence in their own abilities. that's not the case for everyone. especially at ncaa level.

 

[knockoutgame]

Not necessarily. Turnovers, defense, rebounding, all factor into winning and losing. Shooting obviously factors into every game, but for teams like Duke, it factors in more.

i really don't think it does for this duke team. i'd actually argue the exact opposite. i've seen duke have some stinkers from range and still control games. the first uva game immediately comes to mind.

sure, duke can shoot themselves out of a game. that's true for just about any team around. i actually think duke is set up more to win in spite of shooting deficiencies as compared to most other teams. they've proven it many times this season.

edit: also just like to point out the irony in this year's duke team from a storyline standpoint. normally they are the squad to live by the three die by the three because of how much they lean on it. now, when they lean on it as little as any duke team i can remember over the past 25+ years, they are still gonna ultimately die by it...or the lack of it i should say.

 

[JimboBBN]

i really don't think it does for this duke team. i'd actually argue the exact opposite. i've seen duke have some stinkers from range and still control games. the first uva game immediately comes to mind.

sure, duke can shoot themselves out of a game. that's true for just about any team around. i actually think duke is set up more to win in spite of shooting deficiencies as compared to most other teams. they've proven it many times this season.

edit: also just like to point out the irony in this year's duke team from a storyline standpoint. normally they are the squad to live by the three die by the three because of how much they lean on it. now, when they lean on it as little as any duke team i can remember over the past 25+ years, they are still gonna ultimately die by it...or the lack of it i should say.

I agree this Duke team has a much better chance of winning games with bad shooting than most teams. They are so good in so many other areas, even if it is a weakness, its not a huge one.

The argument could be made that shot selection and not shooting is more of an issue. When they lost to Syracuse, they took 43 threes. 43!! Only made 9 of them. Duke can lose a whole lot of games with shot selection like that.

 

[jhmossy]

I agree this Duke team has a much better chance of winning games with bad shooting than most teams. They are so good in so many other areas, even if it is a weakness, its not a huge one.

The argument could be made that shot selection and not shooting is more of an issue. When they lost to Syracuse, they took 43 threes. 43!! Only made 9 of them. Duke can lose a whole lot of games with shot selection like that.

That was precisely my point as well. If Duke loses in the tourney, it will be because of bad shot selection than anything else (assuming full health). And they’re still good enough to win 6 games even with bad shot selection.

 

[Quavarius]

I agree this Duke team has a much better chance of winning games with bad shooting than most teams. They are so good in so many other areas, even if it is a weakness, its not a huge one.

The argument could be made that shot selection and not shooting is more of an issue. When they lost to Syracuse, they took 43 threes. 43!! Only made 9 of them. Duke can lose a whole lot of games with shot selection like that.

But that particular game took a LOT of things to go against Duke for us to lose. We didn’t have Cam and lost Tre when we were on a verge of blowing out Syracuse. They hit unbelievable shots as well as a 3/4 court shot at the break. Also, Jack White went 0-10 from 3, which started his recent slump. And it still took overtime for that to happen as well. If we have Cam, Tre or them missing just a few of those shots and getting the normal production from White, then we win that game.

I doubt you see ALL of those scenarios again in one game. Everything—at one time—went wrong for Duke for Syracuse to eek out a win.

 

[jhmossy]

But that particular took a LOT of things to go against Duke for us to lose. We didn’t have Cam and lost Tre when we were on a verge of blowing out Syracuse. They hit unbelievable shots as well as a 3/4 court shot at the break. Also, Jack White went 0-10 from 3, which started his recent slump. And it still took overtime for that to happen as well. If we have Cam, Tre or them missing just a few of those shots and getting the normal production from White, then we win that game.

I doubt you see ALL of those scenarios again in one game. Everything—at one time—went wrong for Duke for Syracuse to eek out a win.

But not all of those scenarios have to occur for you to lose to better teams either

 

[Quavarius]

Three-point shooting defense isn’t really what people think it is. There’s been some studies showing that once the shot is taken it’s laregly luck. The actual “defense” is in preventing the shot from being taken.

Basically, the defense rotates fast enough to be so close on the catch that the opposing team is prevented from getting an open look.

As long as teams aren’t going off on Duke from 3 while we struggle from 3, I’m good. Call it whatever.

 

[Quavarius]

But not all of those scenarios have to occur for you to lose to better teams either

I was speaking specifically to the particular game referenced.

 

[knockoutgame]

I agree this Duke team has a much better chance of winning games with bad shooting than most teams. They are so good in so many other areas, even if it is a weakness, its not a huge one.

The argument could be made that shot selection and not shooting is more of an issue. When they lost to Syracuse, they took 43 threes. 43!! Only made 9 of them. Duke can lose a whole lot of games with shot selection like that.

i'd agree with that. i'd say this is a symptom of a young team to get off their typical game-plan and have trouble finding their way back to it. i think this is a big reason why duke has had some really poor first halves and then come out and merked opponents in the opening seconds of a second half.

from that standpoint i think the ultimate kryptonite to duke is a team with athletes/talent to pace with them and experienced players to get them out of sorts and keep them there. saw it with gonzaga. i

 

[Quavarius]

Duke's defense definitely has something to do with that percentage. Their athleticism and size can give shooters all kinds of fits. I think Duke's lack of shooting gets more coverage simply because people want to talk about a weakness the team might have.

That said, if Duke loses in the tournament, it will definitely be because they aren't hitting outside shots.

Agreed, especially if we let teams shoot above 29% from 3 while we shoot our season average, we definitely will lose.

 

[JimboBBN]

That was precisely my point as well. If Duke loses in the tourney, it will be because of bad shot selection than anything else (assuming full health). And they’re still good enough to win 6 games even with bad shot selection.

I agree with your last point 100 percent. Duke’s ‘weakness’ is hardly that. Even when they aren’t on their game, they aren’t losing to many teams at all.

 

[GE Nole]

As long as teams aren’t going off on Duke from 3 while we struggle from 3, I’m good. Call it whatever.

Agreed. It was painful to watch Duke win the 3 point lottery in Tallahassee and hit shots from all over the court. Y’all probably don’t shoot that well in practice with 20 balls off a rack.

And no I’m not talking about the last three. That was a tip of the cap play that K drew up.

 

[Quavarius]

Agreed. It was painful to watch Duke win the 3 point lottery in Tallahassee and hit shots from all over the court. Y’all probably don’t shoot that well in practice with 20 balls off a rack.

And no I’m not talking about the last three. That was a tip of the cap play that K drew up.

Wait? You calling our game against UK practice?

 

[sgrooms]

Wait? You calling our game against UK practice?

Well done.

 

[tw3301]

Wait? You calling our game against UK practice?

 

[Bert Higginbotha]

Wait? You calling our game against UK practice?

it was............. I hope.

 

[IUfanBorden]

Apparently Duke is defending the three well.

Many teams light Kentucky up, but UK is getting out more on the three in January and early February.

Its why UK has won 10 straight.

 

[rockycard]

It’s Duke and everyone else. The last time a team stood out like this, they lost in the final four to Wisconsin.

 

[GE Nole]

Wait? You calling our game against UK practice?

Well played, sir, well played.

 

[GE Nole]

It’s Duke and everyone else. The last time a team stood out like this, they lost in the final four to Wisconsin.

I don’t know. It didn’t seem like there was any team in the country who could match up athletically and physically with that UK team.

I think there’s several who can match up with Duke.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Duke isn’t losing in the tournament. It hurts but if we all start getting over it now it won’t be as bad later

 

[brooky03]

Play somebody!

 

[knockoutgame]

I don’t know. It didn’t seem like there was any team in the country who could match up athletically and physically with that UK team.

I think there’s several who can match up with Duke.

it would seem wisconsin was every bit the matchup...and duke beat wisconsin twice that season. once on the road and once in the national title game. in any case, the real question is who matches up with this duke team? the answer is not many when duke decides it is time to win.

i will say it would be fun to see who vegas would favor...that uk team vs this duke team. i'd probably say uk, but not by very much. my opinion obviously, but that 2012 uk team is much better than 2015.

 

[GE Nole]

it would seem wisconsin was every bit the matchup...and duke beat wisconsin twice that season. once on the road and once in the national title game. in any case, the real question is who matches up with this duke team? the answer is not many when duke decides it is time to win.

i will say it would be fun to see who vegas would favor...that uk team vs this duke team. i'd probably say uk, but not by very much. my opinion obviously, but that 2012 uk team is much better than 2015.

Physically and athletically, I think UNC will match up with Duke. FSU certainly does. Gonzaga. Maybe Tennessee too. Possibly even Louisville. And Kentucky is obviously playing far better than they were in November.

I’m not saying Duke is gonna lose in the second round. But they aren’t invincible. Especially if you have guys who don’t piss their pants the first time Zion gets a block and a dunk.

 

[knockoutgame]

Physically and athletically, I think UNC will match up with Duke. FSU certainly does. Gonzaga. Maybe Tennessee too. Possibly even Louisville. And Kentucky is obviously playing far better than they were in November.

I’m not saying Duke is gonna lose in the second round. But they aren’t invincible. Especially if you have guys who don’t piss their pants the first time Zion gets a block and a dunk.

duke isn't invincible, for sure.

 

[DiehardDukeFan4Life]

Agreed, especially if we let teams shoot above 29% from 3 while we shoot our season average, we definitely will lose.

That’s the way I see it, we don’t necessarily need to shoot good from 3 as long as we don’t let our opponents shoot good from 3. UNC’s game against Miami for example. I’m not sure what they shot from 3 as a team but Coby White shot something like 7 of 9 from 3. If we can keep a player or team from shooting like that from 3 then I think we can still win even if we shoot bad from 3.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

Physically and athletically, I think UNC will match up with Duke. FSU certainly does. Gonzaga. Maybe Tennessee too. Possibly even Louisville. And Kentucky is obviously playing far better than they were in November.

I’m not saying Duke is gonna lose in the second round. But they aren’t invincible. Especially if you have guys who don’t piss their pants the first time Zion gets a block and a dunk.

UNC is a paper tiger again.
Their defense is horrible. Outside of UVA in conference play and Syracuse when Boeheim finds what works the ACC can't play defense.
Duke is a hit or miss team on defense. At least they create turnovers.

But back to UNC.
They are the weakest defensive team Texas played all year besides Grand Canyon University

 

[jhmossy]

UNC is a paper tiger again.
Their defense is horrible. Outside of UVA in conference play and Syracuse when Boeheim finds what works the ACC can't play defense.
Duke is a hit or miss team on defense. At least they create turnovers.

But back to UNC.
They are the weakest defensive team Texas played all year besides Grand Canyon University

9 ACC teams in the top 27 in defensive efficiency, including UNC. Solid take though.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Three-point shooting defense isn’t really what people think it is. There’s been some studies showing that once the shot is taken it’s laregly luck. The actual “defense” is in preventing the shot from being taken.

Basically, the defense rotates fast enough to be so close on the catch that the opposing team is prevented from getting an open look.

If this is true, then teams sure are lucky when shooting the 3 vs Purdue! TIC

 

[CO_hawk]

Stats dont matter when your loaded like Duke. Just win baby!

 

[TheDude1]

9 ACC teams in the top 27 in defensive efficiency, including UNC. Solid take though.

Yeah, that was a terrible take. Duke is hit or miss on defense...? Duke was number one in the country in D per KenPom for a while, and is now #5.