He did. It looked bad so i was assuming he'd be out a bit. It could go either way IMO, but i have a feeling Baylor takes it.
2020-21 Pick 'Em, Final Scores!
- Thread starter dukedevilz
- Start date
He did. It looked bad so i was assuming he'd be out a bit. It could go either way IMO, but i have a feeling Baylor takes it.
Underwood is a good coach. He had his team pumped up for that game
They were playing a lot more intense than Baylor...
Baylor learned how to be a juggernaut last year. The team that would play 50/50 ball and then turn it on
When Williams ripped the ball from I believe Mitchell.
Drew called a time out and right after that the game was over.
Illinois couldn't match the intensity...
Baylor is a better team and was playing more intense
But even then Illinois made some plays to not allow the game to get real ugly.
I worry about Baylor on the inside
91% of the time I disagree with Jay Bilas but he is right about Gillespie.
Baylor is missing him .
So I do think Baylor could have some issues on the inside.
They were playing a lot more intense than Baylor...
Baylor learned how to be a juggernaut last year. The team that would play 50/50 ball and then turn it on
When Williams ripped the ball from I believe Mitchell.
Drew called a time out and right after that the game was over.
Illinois couldn't match the intensity...
Baylor is a better team and was playing more intense
But even then Illinois made some plays to not allow the game to get real ugly.
I worry about Baylor on the inside
91% of the time I disagree with Jay Bilas but he is right about Gillespie.
Baylor is missing him .
So I do think Baylor could have some issues on the inside.
Two games were cancelled last week, meaning the maximum points available was only 10. Congrats to @GE Nole on going a perfect 4 for 4. He was the only poster who picked Marquette to beat Wisconsin. And what a game that was! Crazy final two minutes of action. Justin Lewis had the tip-in buzzer beater from the missed free throw. Good stuff.
So, to offset the shortages from last week, I've decided to include an additional two games this week. Lots of intriguing matchups, mostly due to the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. Should be a fun week. This week could result in significant separation. Max points will be 36. Highest valued game will be an 8. Crossing my fingers that we won't see any cancellations this week.
Also, remember there will still be double points weeks in the future. And I'll drop your lowest weekly total sometime in January or February.
Week 3 Games
Tuesday: North Carolina at Iowa
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
Week 2 Results
GE Nole- 10
Jaycg15- 7
AWilli6995- 7
Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 7
bMORE607- 6
WeAreDePaul- 6
JimboBBN- 6
rockycard- 6
duckboy33- 6
ExitFlagger- 6
dukedevilz- 5
Noahtogo- 5
Lefty8- 5
mathman68- 5
IUfanBorden- 4
MGC_07- 4
WestTexasRaider- 4
Kevin Bryan- 4
coryfly- 4
lurkeraspect84- 4
SheriffBufordTJustice- 2
Cumulative Standings
@Jaycg15- 27
GE Nole- 26
dukedevilz- 23
@IUfanBorden- 22
@bMORE607- 21
@AWilli6995- 20
@MGC_07- 18
@evantually- 17
@WestTexasRaider- 16
@WeAreDePaul- 16
@Kevin Bryan- 15
@coryfly- 15
@Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 15
@Dirt Road Boiler- 14
@Noahtogo24- 13
@JimboBBN- 12
@rockycard- 11
@duckboy33- 11
@ExitFlagger- 11
@SheriffBufordTJustice- 8
@lurkeraspect84- 8
@Lefty8- 5
@mathman68- 5
So, to offset the shortages from last week, I've decided to include an additional two games this week. Lots of intriguing matchups, mostly due to the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. Should be a fun week. This week could result in significant separation. Max points will be 36. Highest valued game will be an 8. Crossing my fingers that we won't see any cancellations this week.
Also, remember there will still be double points weeks in the future. And I'll drop your lowest weekly total sometime in January or February.
Week 3 Games
Tuesday: North Carolina at Iowa
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
Week 2 Results
GE Nole- 10
Jaycg15- 7
AWilli6995- 7
Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 7
bMORE607- 6
WeAreDePaul- 6
JimboBBN- 6
rockycard- 6
duckboy33- 6
ExitFlagger- 6
dukedevilz- 5
Noahtogo- 5
Lefty8- 5
mathman68- 5
IUfanBorden- 4
MGC_07- 4
WestTexasRaider- 4
Kevin Bryan- 4
coryfly- 4
lurkeraspect84- 4
SheriffBufordTJustice- 2
Cumulative Standings
@Jaycg15- 27
GE Nole- 26
dukedevilz- 23
@IUfanBorden- 22
@bMORE607- 21
@AWilli6995- 20
@MGC_07- 18
@evantually- 17
@WestTexasRaider- 16
@WeAreDePaul- 16
@Kevin Bryan- 15
@coryfly- 15
@Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 15
@Dirt Road Boiler- 14
@Noahtogo24- 13
@JimboBBN- 12
@rockycard- 11
@duckboy33- 11
@ExitFlagger- 11
@SheriffBufordTJustice- 8
@lurkeraspect84- 8
@Lefty8- 5
@mathman68- 5
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One aspect of the games this year, which I'm sure everyone is aware of, is the fact that home court advantage is very, very minimal. Court familiarity and travel still play a role, yes, but without the crowd noise, I don't think the advantage is significant.
8- Iowa
7- Marquette
6- Kansas
5- Duke
4- Michigan State
3- Wisconsin
2- San Diego St.
1- Florida
7- Marquette
6- Kansas
5- Duke
4- Michigan State
3- Wisconsin
2- San Diego St.
1- Florida
We had several posters that had the Nova/Texas and MSU/Duke games with an allocation of 1 and 2 points. We would be bumping up those confidence scores, unnecessarily. Makes more sense to just completely cancel those two other games as though they were never scheduled, IMO.
How do other posters feel about this? In my original post, I stated I was going to do it this way. But, if others feel strongly against this, I'm willing to adjust.
lol wow. Okay. This is going to happen every week, isn't it?
Let's replace it with Clemson vs. Alabama (Atlanta, GA).
Updated Week 3 Games
Tuesday: North Carolina at Iowa
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
Tuesday: North Carolina at Iowa
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
8- Iowa
7- Arizona State
6- Clemson
5- Virginia
4- Kansas
3- Marquette
2- Florida
1- Duke
7- Arizona State
6- Clemson
5- Virginia
4- Kansas
3- Marquette
2- Florida
1- Duke
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8 - Illinois (pushing my luck)
7 - Creighton
6 - FSU
5 - Iowa
4 - Marquette
3 - Clemson
2 - Virginia
1 - ASU
7 - Creighton
6 - FSU
5 - Iowa
4 - Marquette
3 - Clemson
2 - Virginia
1 - ASU
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'Atta boy. Go all in. Will pay dividends if Illinois come out on top. Duke hasn't been overly impressive, so this result wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm hoping/thinking K will give Jaemyn Brakefield the starter-type minutes he deserves.
Btw, Noah pointed out that the Wisconsin/Louisville game has been cancelled. I replaced it with the Alabama-Clemson neutral court matchup.
Replacing my Wisconsin pick with Clemson, the points can remain the same. Don’t wanna make it too difficult.
The value changes but the tiered ranking of confidence doesn’t. They would still be their lowest confidence score. It’s like when you do the double points week. The lowest value is 2, but that still is the one that’s least confident.
By lopping off the top points, you’ve punished anyone who does well and really helped the ones who did poorly. Because the largest gap for the week possible is 10 points. That’s less than the combined total of just the 5 and 6.
It essentially makes the week worth way way less than a week that a 6 point game is played.
Wait. Are you suggesting to leave all of the confidence scores the same? Whatever 4 games you picked, that's your total possible outcome?
No. I’m suggesting that if there were only 4 games played, you use scores 6/5/4/3.
If there were 5 games played, you use 6/5/4/3/2.
Think about it like this. What do you do when someone doesn’t get their picks in on time? You punish them by making it to where the highest one they can allocate is 5. Or 4. Or whatever.
Well now you just did the opposite. There were only 4 games. The 4 are still ranked in an order that reflects each individual’s confidence in those respective games. But by making them be 4/3/2/1, you’ve punished people who accomplished the object of the pick em, and helped people who missed them.
There's a difference when they don't get their picks in time. The games were played. The max points was still set at 21. From this past week, two games were not played.
I see what you're saying. And I'm not saying there's not merit to it. If a large contingency of the posters are in favor of this, then I will adjust the scores.
However, consider the fact that if you got the 6 point and 5 point games correct, you would have received 11 points. Reducing that to 4 & 3 points, means you lost 4 points. Percentage wise, that's a 37% reduction. However, if your confidence scores of the 1 & 2 point games were bumped up to a 3 & 4, you're looking at a 133% increase. I'll gladly take a 37% variance over a 133% variance.
What do others think about this?
Jalen Johnson is the only thing that gives me pause. I don't think you match up well at the other positions, but a good forward is our weakness.
Don't think I did, actually. In both cases, the highest valued game is taken out. If you miss a game, your most confident pick starts at 5. If a game is cancelled, the highest value starts at 5. Seems consistent to me.
Matthew Hurt is a very talented forward, too. That being said, Illinois can exploit in us many areas. You guys could just as well beat us by double-digits. Just wish Wendell Moore wasn't playing like crap on the offensive end (1 for 16 in his last 2 games). He and Steward need to get their act together if we're going to have a chance.
The response is consistent and that’s the problem. People who submit picks correctly and on time should receive a similar response to someone who submits picks late.
You mention variance, think about the variance of the total value of the weeks. Week 1 was worth 21 points. Week 2 was worth 10. That’s a 52% variance.
If you drop the 1 and 2 point game, week 1 was worth 21 and Week 2 was worth 18. That’s a 14% variance.
The goal by everyone is to pick all the games correctly. No one is trying to miss any. So we shouldn’t reduce the benefit of correctly picking games that are played.
Yes, well, we also have double points week, which automatically results in a 50% variance. And your lowest weekly will be dropped. So yes, not all weeks are the same in that regard.
I did the same thing two years ago when the Wofford/Stanford game was canceled due to poor air quality. Max points was set at 15 points. Nobody had any issues with it then. If my scoring system went 6-5-4-3, in the event of two games being canceled, it would do the exact opposite of what I've done in all other cases. I've always taken from the top - whether a game is canceled, or whether you're late. Scores have been dependent on how many games are played.
The picks above are the perfect example of why I think taking from the top makes more sense.
From the games that were actually played, WeAreDePaul only earned 7 points. If I scored it 6-5-4-3, he would have actually earned 12 points. Ridiculous, IMO. The way I scored it, he got 6 points - which was much closer to his actual confidence levels.
I’m fine with the decision. I just provided my thoughts when asked. As another poster correctly pointed out, you outlined this in the OP (which I forgot) so it’s not like it’s something new.
I’m okay disagreeing and moving on.
I'm starting to think it might be wise to take points from the top and the bottom. 21 points per week, with 6 games, means that each game is worth 3.5 points. So, with two games being cancelled, the max points would probably be closer to 14 points, rather than 18 (6+5+4+3) or 10 (4+3+2+1) points. So you first nix the 6 point game - and then you nix the 1 point game. That leaves with you 14 points, which is in alignment with 3.5 points per game.
In this format, I would take from the top first. But the next game called of could come from the bottom.
So...
5 games would be: 5+4+3+2+1 = 15
4 games would be: 5+4+3+2 = 14
3 games would be: 4+3+2 = 9
2 games would be: 4+3 = 7
1 game would be: 3 points
I think that makes the most sense. If nobody is against this, I'll adjust the scores sometime tomorrow.
In this format, I would take from the top first. But the next game called of could come from the bottom.
So...
5 games would be: 5+4+3+2+1 = 15
4 games would be: 5+4+3+2 = 14
3 games would be: 4+3+2 = 9
2 games would be: 4+3 = 7
1 game would be: 3 points
I think that makes the most sense. If nobody is against this, I'll adjust the scores sometime tomorrow.
Week 3 Games
Tuesday: North Carolina at Iowa
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
8 - Florida State
7 - Iowa
6 - ASU
5 - Marquette
4 - MSU
3 - Illinois
2 - Clemson
1 - Creighton
Tuesday: North Carolina at Iowa
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
8 - Florida State
7 - Iowa
6 - ASU
5 - Marquette
4 - MSU
3 - Illinois
2 - Clemson
1 - Creighton
Tuesday: North Carolina at Iowa
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
8 Iowa
7 Virginia
6 Illinois
5 Arizona St
4 Florida St
3 Marquette
2 Alabama
1 Creighton
Tuesday: Creighton at Kansas
Tuesday: Illinois at Duke
Wednesday: Michigan State at Virginia
Thursady: San Diego State at Arizona State
Friday: Marquette at UCLA
Saturday: Florida at Florida State
Saturday: Clemson vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
8 Iowa
7 Virginia
6 Illinois
5 Arizona St
4 Florida St
3 Marquette
2 Alabama
1 Creighton
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