***THE OFFICIAL BRACKETOLOGY/NCAA MARCH MADNESS THREAD***

[Original_Irish]

Northwestern is scrappy. You aren't giving them enough credit. They play good defense

I agree with them being scrappy. My issue was that there wasn’t a big difference in athleticism of the two teams.

Then factor in that Singleton injured his angle and Bona was rebounding with one arm at the end of the game. This team has been killed by injuries.

 

[hawkit3113]

I love watching him play. He is ridiculous.

I was talking about his street game

 

[coryfly]

I was talking about his street game

Both are strong.

 

[RockThrillCock]

Raferty has a hard on for Reece on Maryland

 

[Kevin Bryan]

Big 10... overrated as usual. There's probably a decent chance their two remaining teams will exit before the Sweet 16 too.

 

[SpartanJD]

Bama has SDSU and Creighton/Princeton to get to a FF. It doesn't get any easier than that.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Conferences remaining in the tournament:
SEC- 3
Big East- 3
Big 12- 2
AAC- 1
ACC- 1
Big 10- 1
CUSA- 1
Ivy- 1
MWC- 1
Pac 12- 1
WCC- 1

 

[Necessary Roughness]

Xavier looking strong.

 

[rockycard]

Today we’ll see if tv has a say so in who wins. With the majority of blue bloods out, will the officiating be in Kentucky’s favor because of viewership? I know that they don’t want to see Xavier and Kansas state playing on championship Monday.

 

[hawkit3113]

I can't fvck this one up today.

Go Cats!!!

 

[Scotty00]

Today we’ll see if tv has a say so in who wins. With the majority of blue bloods out, will the officiating be in Kentucky’s favor because of viewership? I know that they don’t want to see Xavier and Kansas state playing on championship Monday.

Yea I’m sure if UK wins it will be because of the refs!!!😂

 

[rockycard]

Yea I’m sure if UK wins it will be because of the refs!!!😂

We agree on something for once 😀

 

[Scotty00]

There goes your theory on the refs!!! No way that was a block on Toppin

 

[asindc]

Big 10... overrated as usual. There's probably a decent chance their two remaining teams will exit before the Sweet 16 too.

The seeding says otherwise.

 

[Scotty00]

Good game K-State! Good luck the rest of the way if there is any K-state fans on here.

 

[GhostOf301]

Duke lost, Duke fans still post. Kansas loses, Kansas fans still post. Kentucky loses, Kentucky fans still post.

Come on Purdue fans, act like you've been here before.

 

[IUfanBorden]

Big 10... overrated as usual. There's probably a decent chance their two remaining teams will exit before the Sweet 16 too.

How was the B10 overrated? Had 1 and a 4 seed...Everyone else was 7-10. TBH, having 5 wins and none coming from Purdue is sort of impressvie.

 

[GhostOf301]

How is the B1G NOT overrated?

 

[asindc]

How is the B1G NOT overrated?

Their performance so far is on par with seeding.

 

[GhostOf301]

Their performance so far is on par with seeding.

You're as strong aa your weakest link. Purdue lost as a 1 seed to a 16 seed. Wouldn't call that on par.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

I’m an idiot for going all in on Tyler Kolek. He‘s f-ing terrible.

 

[asindc]

You're as strong aa your weakest link. Purdue lost as a 1 seed to a 16 seed. Wouldn't call that on par.

Like the SEC last year or ACC in 2018?

 

[GhostOf301]

Like the SEC last year or ACC in 2018?

Sure?

 

[Noahtogo24]

Baylor on the ropes …..

 

[Big_C_KU]

Baylor on the ropes …..

B12 turning in a B1G level performance being called the best conference while sucking in the tournament.

 

[Noahtogo24]

B12 turning in a B1G level performance being called the best conference while sucking in the tournament.

Hey now, last two tourney appearances MD over-performed and met expectations 😎

 

[tw3301]

B12 turning in a B1G level performance being called the best conference while sucking in the tournament.

The whole big 12 quad 1 wins thing was overblown.

 

[boilerzz]

 

[hawkit3113]

View embedded media

So freaking true!! They aren't the only ones playing that shit style

 

[Anthony B]

Grannies! That big ass Timme feller has been playing in a Gonzaga uniform nigh on 10 years. Wonder how much longer they gonna let him play.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Updated Conferences remaining in the tournament going into the Sweet 16:

SEC- 3
Big East- 3
Big 12- 2
AAC- 1
ACC- 1
Big 10- 1
CUSA- 1
Ivy- 1
MWC- 1
Pac 12- 1
WCC- 1

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Re-seeding the 16 teams remaining in the Tournament:

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Houston
4. UCLA
5. Gonzaga
6. Tennessee
7. Miami
8. Arkansas
9. Kansas State
10. Creighton
11. Xavier
12. UConn
13. Michigan State
14. San Diego State
15. Florida Atlantic
16. Princeton

 

[tw3301]

View embedded media

Factually accurate.

 

[thebasketballreasons]

At the end of the day, Shaka is still the same Shaka, beating a weak 15 seed doesn’t change his tournament woes, his team has yet to play up to seeding since 2013.

 

[dukedevilz]

February 27th

If I'm a 1 seed, the 8 seed that would make me crap my pants is Arkansas. A healthy Nick Smith is back - and throw him in with Anthony Black and Ricky Council? That team could be very, very dangerous.

March 6th

I tend to trust the schools less in the tournament that have really high luck ratings. Kansas is currently 14th in the country in the KenPom luck metric. They're 9-1 in games decided by 5 points or less.

Are they capable of winning 6 in a row? Yes. Absolutely. I just don't trust them as much as a few others.

Yep. Seems about right. Arkansas had the talent. And the KU had a knack for winning close game after close game. Luck finally ran out.

 

[ExitFlagger]

February 27th


March 6th


Yep. Seems about right. Arkansas had the talent. And the KU had a knack for winning close game after close game. Luck finally ran out.

The main reason that KU wins so many close games is Self. Don’t act like his presence didn’t matter. KU had the game well in hand until Arkansas made a couple offensive adjustments in the 2nd half. Even Musselman said that he was surprised at KU’s failure to adjust. Self doesn’t make those mistakes.

 

[dukedevilz]

The main reason that KU wins so many close games is Self. Don’t act like his presence didn’t matter. KU had the game well in hand until Arkansas made a couple offensive adjustments in the 2nd half. Even Musselman said that he was surprised at KU’s failure to adjust. Self doesn’t make those mistakes.

Obviously Self coaching KU is better than Norm Roberts.

But, the points I made in my original post stands. It's using analytics to calculate the standard deviation between a team's winning percentage and their expected record. High luck rating means you're probably over seeded. And you never see teams in the top 25 of the luck metric year-after-year the same way you'd see teams annually of the AP Top 25. Why? Because it's not a sustainable outcome. Superior teams don't need the final 1-2 minutes of a game to win. Self has a winning percentage of 81.5% at KU. Mostly because he wins games in the first 38 minutes. I don't need to look up the stats to know that he absolutely isn't winning 81.5% of the games that were decided by 5 points or less.

Look at KU's 2 National Title teams under Self, and for good measure, we'll throw in 2020. Their ratings in the luck metric were 138th in '08, 79th in '20, and 88th in '22. No doubt their rating went up after winning 6 games. So yes, Self's best teams weren't especially lucky, they were just good.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Obviously Self coaching KU is better than Norm Roberts.

But, the points I made in my original post stands. It's using analytics to calculate the standard deviation between a team's winning percentage and their expected record. High luck rating means you're probably over seeded. And you never see teams in the top 25 of the luck metric year-after-year the same way you'd see teams annually of the AP Top 25. Why? Because it's not a sustainable outcome. Superior teams don't need the final 1-2 minutes of a game to win. Self has a winning percentage of 81.5% at KU. Mostly because he wins games in the first 38 minutes. I don't need to look up the stats to know that he absolutely isn't winning 81.5% of the games that were decided by 5 points or less.

Look at KU's 2 National Title teams under Self, and for good measure, we'll throw in 2020. Their ratings in the luck metric were 138th in '08, 79th in '20, and 88th in '22. No doubt their rating went up after winning 6 games. So yes, Self's best teams weren't especially lucky, they were just good.

Arkansas may be an 8 seed, but they’re 15th in Sagarin (18 on Kenpom) and would likely be higher if they were healthier earlier in the year. Their talent level is closer to a 2 seed than an 8. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect to blow them out.

I never thought this team was at the level of those three KU teams, of course, but I still have a hard time buying into the “luck” concept. There are a lot of factors that it doesn’t consider. Namely SOS. KU had the #1 SOS. Most of the other top teams weren’t close. You don’t think those teams would have played more tight games vs KU’s schedule? Alabama is one of two other top 10 teams with a SOS in the vicinity of KU’s, and their luck rating is close to KU’s. Coincidence?

When comparing to 2008, while that was obviously a better team, they also played a much weaker schedule. 3 ranked opponents during the regular season. Two were losses and the other a 4 pt win. This year, they played 15 ranked teams and beat several of them comfortably. In 2020, they had several wins that don’t quite fall into the “luck” category but were close (6-7 pt wins). A few FTs in the final seconds of games can drastically change the picture.

I don’t have the stat off hand but I believe that Self’s record in close games over the years is far better than other top coaches. I think that has a lot more to do with his ability to draw up plays out of TOs and make the right moves than dumb luck.

I think one of the biggest problems here is that, in putting so much stock in the luck figure, you’re essentially saying that you’d like a team’s chances more if they had a few more close losses rather than close wins. I think that’s silly.

 

[dukedevilz]

I think one of the biggest problems here is that, in putting so much stock in the luck figure, you’re essentially saying that you’d like a team’s chances more if they had a few more close losses rather than close wins. I think that’s silly.

That's not what I'm saying at all. It's more like if the season were replayed 10 times, the team in question would come out with 2-4 more losses more often than not, and thus their resume wouldn't be as impressive - and so, they would be seeded lower. So yes, I trust them less, just like I originally stated. Teams that are in the top 15-25 of the luck metric were fortunate enough to maximize their seed capacity. But, their floors, if the seasons were replayed multiple times, could have been much lower.

And Self is an amazing coach. He probably does win more than 60% of games decided by 2 possessions. But, he's not winning 80%.

 

[ExitFlagger]

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