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****Official B1G Off Season Thread****

Old B1G threads get deleted, do we keep everything as is?


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But none of Painter, Izzo, or Beilein seemed to care about that gaming of NCSOS because they all scheduled enough cupcakes to bring down their averages to 160-200+.

I’d imagine the reason they didn’t give a shit is because their overall SOS would still be top 20.
That is why I discount those numbers and consider MSUs schedules to generally have been elite in the past.
 
No, it was that playing a weak non conference schedule doesnt prepare teams for March. Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue have objectively played weak non conference schedules over the past 10 seasons. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter much because the 18-20 game Big Ten schedule is a gauntlet that prepares teams more than any non conference slate does.
Arguing a non-conference slate is weak by looking at overall NCSOS is dumb IMO. It's more prudent to look at it individually. How many NET Q1 and Q2 games did you play in the Non-Con matters a hell of a lot more than a solitary number.
 
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Arguing a non-conference slate is weak by looking at overall NCSOS is dumb IMO. It's more prudent to look at it individually. How many NET Q1 and Q2 games did you play in the Non-Con matters a hell of a lot more than a solitary number.

You, yourself, referenced NCSOS.

“Not sure I agree that non-con SOS doesn't really matter anymore..”

I’m glad we both agree you are dumb.
 
Kenpom’s numbers don’t mean sht until we get well into the season. You know this. Only Gillinois would use kenpom or torvik right now with a straight face.
We use what is available. It's the closest thing we have and at the macro level is not that far off. We are all projecting. That's what message boards are for.
 
You, yourself, referenced NCSOS.

“Not sure I agree that non-con SOS doesn't really matter anymore..”

I’m glad we both agree you are dumb.
There is a difference between the metric and the collective schedule strength in the eyes of the pundits. Are you really this dense or do you just like to argue?
 
I’d also argue aside from it being way more fun as a fan, losing to the #1 overall team is not better than beating the #25 overall team in collective terms of resume/SOS/development.
 
There is a difference between the metric and the collective schedule strength in the eyes of the pundits. Are you really this dense or do you just like to argue?

You have literally taken two different sides on this argument and then accuse someone else of just liking to argue 😂.

Why do you think Izzo, Painter, and Beilein schedule(d) so many cupcakes if NCSOS is so important?


(spoiler alert: it’s not because of how loaded the Big Ten is)
 
Why don’t you think Izzo, Painter, and Beilein did much “gaming” of NCSOS?
Because the committee and national pundits don’t just look at the NCSOS number. They look at who you’ve actually beaten or lost to. This is why for so many years we had to hear about how strong of a schedule Izzo plays. It helped that they got matched up with Duke or UNC every year in the challenge and then they play UK, KU, or Duke in Champions Classic. Then you have the early season tourneys. Add one more top team or a couple good teams and there you have it.
 
Because the committee and national pundits don’t just look at the NCSOS number. They look who you’ve actually beat or lost to. This is why for so many years we had heard about how strong of a schedule Izzo plays. It helped that they got matched up with Duke or UNC every year and then they play UK, KU, or Duke in Champions Classic. Add one more top team or a couple good teams and there you have it.

Thank you. NCSOS isn’t very relevant. The top coaches don’t game it because it doesn’t really matter.

Also, the difference between losing to #1 Gonzaga and beating #25 Florida is negligee in collective terms of resume/development. Way too much emphasis on who has a harder non conference schedule. The Big Ten is the gauntlet that does the most preparing.
 
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There is a difference between the metric and the collective schedule strength in the eyes of the pundits. Are you really this dense or do you just like to argue?
Obviously the season will play out, but if someone would give me even money that UNC will end up a better team than ND, I would put 5K on it right now.
 
Thank you. NCSOS isn’t very relevant. The top coaches don’t game it because it doesn’t really matter.

Also, the difference between losing to #1 Gonzaga and beating #25 Florida is neighbor in collective terms of resume/development. Way too much emphasis on who has a harder non conference schedule. The Big Ten is the gauntlet that does the most preparing.
I think we are talking about different things. You are talking the calculated number and I am talking about how many elite to very good teams you play.
 
I think we are talking about different things. You are talking the calculated number and I am talking about how many elite to very good teams you play.

Even the team you think plays an “elite” non conference schedule plays maaaaybe 1 or 2 elite to very good teams a year in the non conference and is mostly filled with cupcakes. That is a nothing burger compared to the Big Ten gauntlet. The non conference strength of schedule (metric and number of elite teams played) is less and less relevant the stronger a conference gets. And lucky for us the Big Ten is dominant.
 
Top 30 Freshmen

1 Paolo Banchero
2 Jalen Duren
3 Chet Holmgren
4 Patrick Baldwin
5 Emoni Bates
6 Jabari Smith
7 Peyton Watson
8 Kennedy Chandler
9 Kendall Brown
10 Caleb Houstan
11 JD Davison
12 Harrison Ingram
13 Max Christie
14 TyTy Washington
15 Hunter Sallis
16 Matthew Cleveland
17 AJ Griffin
18 Aminu Mohammed
19 Damion Collins
20 Moussa Diabate
21 Charles Bediako
22 Efton Reid
23 Malaki Branham
24 Mouhamed Gueye
25 Nolan Hickman
26 Trevor Keels
27 Enoch Boakye
28 Tamar Bates
29 Manny Obaseki
30 Bryce McGowens
 
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I think we are talking about different things. You are talking the calculated number and I am talking about how many elite to very good teams you play.
Exactly. I’ve told Hail the same thing multiple times and he’s hung up on something else.
 
Thank you. NCSOS isn’t very relevant. The top coaches don’t game it because it doesn’t really matter.

Also, the difference between losing to #1 Gonzaga and beating #25 Florida is negligee in collective terms of resume/development. Way too much emphasis on who has a harder non conference schedule. The Big Ten is the gauntlet that does the most preparing.
There’s a legitimate argument that it does not.
 
Notice how I said “vastly”. They aren’t that much different.
Lets stack them in order and bet on each one. Any amount you want. JFC I wish any of the betting sites would give me those bets at even money.

Edit
On Draftkings for the title to make my point clear:
Nova +1400
FSU +2800
UNC +3500
Tenn +6000
Cuse +6000
St. Johns +9000
ND +13000

I would say there is a substantial difference in expectation.

Edit #2
So that @hailtoyourvictor can get his boner for the day, Mich is second favorite at +1200. Zags are first at +650 which are terrible odds to bet at relative to where all the other teams are.
 
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Painter’s NCSOS the past 10 years: 234 253 313 245 239 224 144 55 77 122 So Izzo, Beilein, and Painter all seem to subscribe to the notion you don’t need a loaded NCSOS.
Interesting that his best tournament performance coincided with the strongest NCSOS, in which they played 4 major conference teams (2 away, 1 neutral, 1 home) 🤔
 
Lets stack them in order and bet on each one. Any amount you want. JFC I wish any of the betting sites would give me those bets at even money.

Edit
On Draftkings for the title to make my point clear:
Nova +1400
FSU +2800
UNC +3500
Tenn +6000
Cuse +6000
St. Johns +9000
ND +13000

I would say there is a substantial difference in expectation.

Edit #2
So that @hailtoyourvictor can get his boner for the day, Mich is second favorite at +1200. Zags are first at +650 which are terrible odds to bet at relative to where all the other teams are.

Wait, you made fun of him and boilerzz for using preseason Kenpom ratings then post this?
 
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Wait, you made fun of him and boilerzz for using preseason Kenpom ratings then post this?
Yes I trust Vegas over any other predictor. If you trust kenpom so much right now and actually believe ND is the 26th best team in the country, feel free to bet heavy on them at +13000. That should be a no brainer.
 
Yes I trust Vegas over any other predictor. If you trust kenpom so much right now and actually believe ND is the 26th best team in the country, feel free to bet heavy on them at +13000. That should be a no brainer.

😂

Acting like one is a good indicator of strength of schedule while the other is terrible is funny.
 
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😂

Acting like one is a good indicator of strength of schedule while the other is terrible is funny.
LOL do you think ND is the 26th best on the country while UNC is 40? If so, let’s bet. I’ll take UNC finishing as the better team and am in for any amount you want.
 
LOL do you think ND is the 26th best on the country while UNC is 40? If so, let’s bet. I’m in for any amount you want.

It’s not about Kenpom being any better. It’s about you thinking Vegas preseason odds accurately asses strength of schedule.
 
It’s not about Kenpom being any better. It’s about you thinking Vegas preseason odds accurately asses strength of schedule.
No it’s about where Vegas has stacked teams vs kenpom. I trust Vegas, especially before the season starts. Happy to let you replace trojan in the bets I proposed where we bet on each one based on kenpoms ranks.

Nova/Tenn (whoever Purdue plays) vs ND
FSU vs Cuse
UNC vs St Johns

Any amount you want.

Edit: min $100. Anything below isn’t worth my time.
 
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