I’ve been sitting on that one for awhile. Was holding it til the right moment
Kentucky vs Arizona
- Thread starter hailtoyourvictor
- Start date
They do say that timing is everything! Along with location, location, location
man, I am completely stuck on this game. No idea who to pick. Especially with Hunter being out, this game now takes on massive importance for my bracket.
On the one hand how do you pick against Ayton right now, but on the other hand I really don't believe in PJC as a final four quality PG and i have doubts about Sean Miller as well. but, on the other hand I'm concerned about Kentucky's youth.
So confused right now....
On the one hand how do you pick against Ayton right now, but on the other hand I really don't believe in PJC as a final four quality PG and i have doubts about Sean Miller as well. but, on the other hand I'm concerned about Kentucky's youth.
So confused right now....
For Kentucky? Sure. Other UK fans here, feel free to leave some input on anything that I miss.
In Kentucky's case, on the season, they've had issues with the youth and everything. If you have young players that play a ton of minutes, then I probably don't need to tell you how prone they are to the mental lapses, and the tunnel vision at times. On the season, our big issue was offense. Turned the ball over quite a bit, roles weren't really defined (as can be expected when your rotation for the better part of the season is 6 freshmen and 2 sophomores (7 freshmen if you include Vanderbilt). On top of that, we had some fairly inexplicable shooting woes, especially when you consider that SGA, Knox, Green, and Gabriel are all good shooters.
What eventually changed was that UK's players got defined roles, and suddenly, they went on a tear. Shooting over 45% from 3 as a team over the past 8 games (and over the past 8, from 3 point range, SGA is shooting 47.5%, Hamidou Diallo is shooting 46.7%, Gabriel is shooting 54.8% [on 4 threes per game], and Quade Green is shooting 42.3% from deep as well.)
Kevin Knox is the most versatile scorer UK has. He's pretty much automatic at the rim, or on baseline jumpers. You'll see him used similarly to how UK used Jamal Murray and Malik Monk. You'll see a ton of movement off the ball and several screens being set for him in the middle of the floor, tons of cuts from baseline to baseline, curls out to the wings, and small curls off of a screen in the paint, where he may shoot a quick floater. He's scoring almost 18 per game over the past 7. His big issue on the fast break is that he almost never passes the ball. Overwhelmingly so, but he tends to get fouled a lot. He passes pretty decently in general, but it's just on the fast break, he could have a 3-1 advantage and take it himself.
PJ Washington is our most consistent low post scorer. He's not a huge guy, only 6'7 or 6'8 with a 7'3 wingspan, but he's a brute at about 242 pounds, and has a 43 inch vertical. Guy plays well through contact. He gets fouled a ton, and he makes a bunch of his and-1 opportunities. Pretty smooth with his feet, pretty good about utilizing shot fakes, decent as a post-passer. You'll see him a ton on the blocks, as well as just above the free throw line.
Our best player is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, our 6'6" (with a 6'11.5 wingspan) starting point guard. He started the season as the backup PG, and he remained there until December, maybe January (when Quade Green went down with a back injury). For a while, he was incredibly fundamental, and didn't make a ton of mistakes, but he wasn't a natural PG. More of a combo guard of the scoring variety. As of late though, he has stepped it up in a huge way. Over the past 8, he's averaging 17 PPG, 4.8 Reb, 6.6 Ast, 1.3 Stl, 0.5 Blk, 2.3 Tov, all on 49% FG, 47.5% 3PT, and 85.1% FT. Over the past 3, he has stepped it up even more, averaging 21 PPG, 5 Reb, 6.7 Ast, 1.7 Stl, and 1.7 Tov on 55.3% from the field. He's excellent at getting into the lane and kicking it out using his change of speed and craftiness, excellent at controlling his body at the rim and making shots over defenders while drawing fouls, and he's one of our guys that we rely on when it's late in the game and we need a bucket. He's also our best defensive playmaker, he has a knack for swiping the ball away and jumping passing lanes. He's very disruptive as a defender, and he uses his length very well.
Quade Green is probably our most natural point guard, even if the numbers don't show it. He and SGA will share responsibilities running the offense, and there may be a bit more flow to our offense when Green runs it, although he most often runs as the 2-guard, He gets the majority of his points coming off of screens. Great floor vision, and his defense has been infinitely improved. He's responsible for defending the smallest player on the floor, most recently doing a pretty good job of keeping Collin Sexton in check on 2 separate occasions. He's pretty tenacious and will play up in your point guard's grill for the most part, but it's mostly to create a frenzy from that player so others can play passing lanes, or run the clock down and stall the ball a bit, not so much to pick your point guard's pocket.
He's probably been the most efficient player on the team over the past 8 games. He's logging 9.6 PPG, 3.3 Ast, 0.8 Tov on 51% FG (58.1% 2PT), 42.3 3PT, 89% FT.
The two sophomores, recently, have been the biggest revelation. Cal has preferred Nick Richards over Sacha Killeya-Jones because Richards has a higher ceiling, but it's March now, and SKJ has been getting his opportunities. Been using them to perfection too. He's our low post defensive anchor at about 6'10, 235. Athletic guy, has a smooth mid-range jumper that looks really pretty, but over the past couple of games, his role has been to play defense and clean things up. In 18 MPG over the past couple, he's contributed 4.0 PPG, 4.0 Reb, 2.0 Blk per, but his importance has been in the low post defense. He's really turned it into an elite post defense when he's been in the game, although over UK's 8 game stretch, they've been really good in that department anyway. Wenyen Gabriel has really been the guy of the two sophomores on our roster, though. He's our energetic, 6'9 PF that comes off the bench (although I wouldn't be shocked to see him start in the tournament). For as good and as consistent as his past 8 games have been, his past 3 have been a bit of a nightmare for opponents. He's played against some monstrous dudes (Yante Maten from UGA, Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams from Tennessee), and he's done more than hold his own. Over the past 3, Gabriel has averaged 13.7 PPG, 4.7 Reb, 1.3 Stl and 1.7 Blk in about 26 minutes per game. His shooting numbers have been pretty unreal. 66.7% from 2 point range, 77.3% from three on 5 three point attempts per game, perfect from the free throw line in that 3 game span. Dude will fight tooth and nail for rebounds, will block shots, and has even had a couple of run-down blocks in defensive transition, and he's gotten much better at using his quickness and athleticism and putting the ball on the floor.
Vanderbilt is our most unique player, but I feel fairly certain that Arizona won't see him if UK and Zona play. At 6'9, he has the skillset of Lamar Odom, being that he's electric in the open floor and he's the most gifted passer on UK's roster, but the rebounding ability of Dennis Rodman (he averages something absurd like 1 rebound every 2 minutes he's on the floor, and he grabs an offensive rebound off of 27% of possessions. Insane motor that never quits, and he's Kentucky's best defensive talent that can switch 1-5. I'm not sold he's back against Zona, but if UK were to advance into the 2nd weekend, I think UVA would see him.
My biggest concern in this game would be rebounding, assuming Vando doesn't play. Arizona is great at it, and for everything that UK has done at an elite level lately, that's been the one weakness, and seemingly the only one. For as great as UK's shooting numbers have been, none of the shooters are going to make freaky shots. A few have NBA range (Knox, Gabriel, and Diallo has been shooting from NBA 3PT range lately), but instead, UK's going to want to use a lot of screens, drive the ball, and kick for open shots. You'll see a lot of 4 players on the perimeter, and 1 on the elbows when UK is on offense. Washington will almost always be the guy on the blocks, and you'll most often have to deal with SGA, Green, Knox, and Gabriel on the perimeter. On defense, UK will switch most things, and I wouldn't be stunned if UK made it a point to double your post players as soon as they put the ball on the floor, and then play the passing lanes from there to try to get run-outs.
That covers mostly everything I know about UK.
Lol good stuff. I do think Cal would double Ayton after a little feel out period. Rebounding has been good, but if UK were to bomb threes and produce some long rebounds, our guards can sometimes forget how to rebound since Ayton can be a black hole. UK will get some decent looks, they aren't going to need someone making freaky shots. I think this game (IF IT HAPPENS) would come down to turnovers. AZ has had some really bad TO games.
Something else I left out. As of late, UK has had plenty of games where the guards (as a whole) are racking up things like 15, 17ish assists, and only 2 or 3 turnovers. They've been excellent at not turning the ball over.
I didn’t read the novel, but how did you possibly leave something out?
I genuinely have no idea. I think it's going to depend a lot on how UK and Arizona look tomorrow. That's an insanely hard line to determine, I feel like.
Arizona -2
A lot will depend how both teams look tomorrow tbh. Shoot one (or both) still might lose and ruin this hypothetical matchup.
As long as neither team suffers major injury, oddsmakers already know what the line will be were UK and Zona both to win and set up that matchup.
I like you, Rocky. Hopefully Louisville isn't the only team from Kentucky to make it out of the first weekend of a tournament.
Odds that this matchup never ends up materializing? I'd say about 40%.
Davidson is about as good as Arky, Bama and Mizzou in the SEC while Buffalo is equivalent to Oregon and Utah in the Pac 12.
Davidson is about as good as Arky, Bama and Mizzou in the SEC while Buffalo is equivalent to Oregon and Utah in the Pac 12.
I don't know if I hope you're right, or wrong. The basketball fan in me wants to see UK vs Zona. The UK fan in me wants to see UK vs Buffalo.
It'll be tough though. Teams are going to have to play really hard to come out of the top half of the South bracket.
I would think Zona staff is watching a lot of UK/UGA tape from the weekend. Ayton will see a lot of the same defensive looks UK gave Maten. Problem is, Zona has a lot more weapons on the perimeter that require attention, unlike UGA.
Lots of zone and doubling, if I were guessing, but that’s probably expected.
I think the UK vs UT game would be more telling. Especially when you consider that UT could very well get to the elite 8 in this bracket.
Kentucky wins easily tomorrow vs Davidson
I've been a huge fan of the UL reverse jinx this year (assuming that's what you're doing), we have a great record in those games and would love for it to continue throughout the NCAAt.
I was just talking about defensive looks vs a dominant big, not the game overall.
Yeah, Tennessee has Grant Williams (who was the SEC POY). That Tennessee frontcourt is a two-way machine.
Two way machine of combo forwards, Schofield and Williams are both like 6’6. They both just have stacked builds that can out muscle dudes. Ayton is a legit 7 footer.
Granted, Maten isn’t that much larger than the UT guys, but it’s a better comparison of star power and offensive focus.
Loved the big writeup on Kentucky. Anyone from AZ able to write something similar about their team?
I did a short one, but dont have time to do a long one.
Heres an even shorter write up: Ayton is the best. The rest of our team is decent. If we score more, we'll win!
Arizona is going to lose in the first round.
good callOne of UK or AZ will lose in the first round. So whoever doesn't lose, pick them.
Ummmm. You don't just beat a team by 21 luckily. Watch. Out. For. Buffalo.
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