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Kentucky vs Arizona

I'm picking Arizona on my bracket. Especially since our best rebounder is probably a no-go.
 
Arizona. Guard talent matches well for both teams but Arizona easily has the advantage down low with JV out.
 
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This is a tough one, for sure. It's a natural inclination to go with teams that are hot - and well, both teams are hot. Sean Miller has said that this is the worst defensive team he's had at Arizona. Kentucky's defense is much, much better than Zona's. But man, how do you ignore Ayton? I feel like Ayton can carry a team more so than any other player in the tournament. I picked Zona myself, but I struggled quite a bit with this game.
 
Arizona. Guard talent matches well for both teams but Arizona easily has the advantage down low with JV out.

Ayton will be the best player on the floor in the frontcourt. After that, I think I prefer UK’s frontcourt. I personally feel that Washington, Gabriel, and SKJ (for defensive purposes) are all better than the rest of Arizona’s big men.

In this game, if JV doesn’t play, I would start SKJ at the 5. He would defend Ayton the best out of any of our bigs not named Jarred Vanderbilt.
 
AZ defense has been iffy, but improving. If I had to guess, Id say AZ will be a tiny favorite.
 
I would like to say AZ but I have been burned SO much by them in the past that i dont know if i can bring myself to pick them anymore.
 
Arizona is the better team. Not even close.

Hard to say this when UK is ranked #1 in the nation in every "recent" metric for every computer ranking model out there seemingly.

Arizona will have the best player on the floor though. That is a fact.
 
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Hard to say this when UK is ranked #1 in the nation in every "recent" metric for every computer ranking model out there seemingly.

Arizona will have the best player on the floor though. That is a fact.
UK is certainly playing much better.

But lol at computer rankings and computer rankings having UK #1
 
Hard to say this when UK is ranked #1 in the nation in every "recent" metric for every computer ranking model out there seemingly.

Arizona will have the best player on the floor though. That is a fact.
What am I missing, Rhavicc? They're not #1 in RPI, BPI, KenPom, etc, etc...Not #1 in anything; Offense, defense. Nothing.

And if they are, someone needs to check those computers for a virus. I mean UK is good. Playing better for sure. But #1? I mean, ummm, no.
 
Should be a terrific game. IF UK continues to shoot well from three, they'll be a tough out for anyone. To say one or the other for certain is not doable. Both are playing good ball. Both are good teams. Only for sure thing is AZ will have the best player. Other than tht, absolute toss up IMO.
 
Have Arizona going to the FF. Don’t think UK is very good. Just my opinion.
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What am I missing, Rhavicc? They're not #1 in RPI, BPI, KenPom, etc, etc...Not #1 in anything; Offense, defense. Nothing.

And if they are, someone needs to check those computers for a virus. I mean UK is good. Playing better for sure. But #1? I mean, ummm, no.

The recent metric. You have to subscribe to see those numbers on KenPom and Sagarin.

I also did a little run-down over UK's numbers over the past 3 games.

Scoring Margin: +13.7 (t-2nd in the nation among power conference teams)
Field Goal %: 51.0% (2nd in the nation among power conference)
Effective FG%: 58.8% (4th among power conference)
3PT FG%: 47.1% (3rd among power conference)
Opponent PPG: 61.3 (t-2nd among power conference)
Opponent FG%: 34.7% (1st among power conference)
Opponent Effective FG%: 41.6% (1st among power conference)
Opponent 2-PT FG%: 36.4% (1st among power conference [by far])

They're posting elite numbers on both sides of the ball lately.
 
I think the biggest mismatch on the floor in this game is at point guard where SGA is about a million times better than PJC. Such an important position too. I can see that being the difference in this game.
 
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The recent metric. You have to subscribe to see those numbers on KenPom and Sagarin.

I also did a little run-down over UK's numbers over the past 3 games.

Scoring Margin: +13.7 (t-2nd in the nation among power conference teams)
Field Goal %: 51.0% (2nd in the nation among power conference)
Effective FG%: 58.8% (4th among power conference)
3PT FG%: 47.1% (3rd among power conference)
Opponent PPG: 61.3 (t-2nd among power conference)
Opponent FG%: 34.7% (1st among power conference)
Opponent Effective FG%: 41.6% (1st among power conference)
Opponent 2-PT FG%: 36.4% (1st among power conference [by far])

They're posting elite numbers on both sides of the ball lately.

Where do you see recent metric on kenpom? cant find it
 
Rumor has it that it’s an eligibility issue, but being masked as an injury. Might be something to that because people have seen him recently limping badly and also walking fine. Hmmm

besides the UL boards has this rumor been posted anywhere else?
i remember the same rumor being posted on the UL boards right before he started playing

i am guessing maybe some on the UL boards are the only ones with REAL inside info
 
The recent metric. You have to subscribe to see those numbers on KenPom and Sagarin.

I also did a little run-down over UK's numbers over the past 3 games.

Scoring Margin: +13.7 (t-2nd in the nation among power conference teams)
Field Goal %: 51.0% (2nd in the nation among power conference)
Effective FG%: 58.8% (4th among power conference)
3PT FG%: 47.1% (3rd among power conference)
Opponent PPG: 61.3 (t-2nd among power conference)
Opponent FG%: 34.7% (1st among power conference)
Opponent Effective FG%: 41.6% (1st among power conference)
Opponent 2-PT FG%: 36.4% (1st among power conference [by far])

They're posting elite numbers on both sides of the ball lately.
They are playing better ball. No doubt. But its just three games. Three out of 33. PLus, outside of UT, it's not like they've done this versus elite, or even pretty good teams. Bama is OK; 9 seed. UGA is bad.

I like how the Cats are playing. Dangerous. But I;m not going to let a three game stretch make me forget the previous 30 games. I think they'll beat Davidson. And handily to be honest. But after that? I dunno. If they get by Zona, I don't think they beat UVA. Cavs are very, very efficient on offense. And well, we all know how they are defensively; though losing Hunter could open a door.

I will say this though. If UK shoots the three at the rate they have? Well, they'll be extremely difficult to handle. But that number is somewhat misleading. I mean gabriel, a 38% shooter, just shot 91% in two games. I mean I don't see that being the norm.

Playing better for sure. But to imply they are on the level of a UVA, Nova, etc, etc...is a bit much for me.
 
Ayton and Trier are the two best players and they play for Arizona so if youre looking for a tiebreaker in a tight matchup, that could potentially be it.
 
They are playing better ball. No doubt. But its just three games. Three out of 33. PLus, outside of UT, it's not like they've done this versus elite, or even pretty good teams. Bama is OK; 9 seed. UGA is bad.

I like how the Cats are playing. Dangerous. But I;m not going to let a three game stretch make me forget the previous 30 games. I think they'll beat Davidson. And handily to be honest. But after that? I dunno. If they get by Zona, I don't think they beat UVA. Cavs are very, very efficient on offense. And well, we all know how they are defensively; though losing Hunter could open a door.

I will say this though. If UK shoots the three at the rate they have? Well, they'll be extremely difficult to handle. But that number is somewhat misleading. I mean gabriel, a 38% shooter, just shot 91% in two games. I mean I don't see that being the norm.

Playing better for sure. But to imply they are on the level of a UVA, Nova, etc, etc...is a bit much for me.

Even if you look at how they've played over the last 8 games, overall, UK has been much, much better.

The thing about those 3 teams, UGA, Bama, and UT, they're all elite defensively. Especially Tennessee, who has a monster big man duo, and Kentucky has maintained the 2nd best offensive efficiency among power conference teams despite playing them. That's good news for UK.

Arizona has been good too, but they've played infinitely worse competition than Kentucky has, and has even posted lesser results in all facets. Now, Ayton is an alien species, and for that reason, Arizona is going to be super difficult. I'm not going to tell you that I'm uber confident that UK wins that, but it goes both ways. Arizona fans shouldn't be uber confident that they'll beat UK either. Just the nature of the beast when you have that much talent on the floor.

UVA should be the favorite, they deserved it, but losing your ACC 6th man of the year? That's a nasty, nasty blow. If 2015 UK lose Devin Booker, UK would have dropped games. If 2012 UK lost Darius Miller, then UK might not have won a championship that year. It's just as bad as losing a starter, especially when in UVA's case, he's your most athletic player, one of your ~2 best two-way players on the roster, and the only player on that roster that can physically match up with players on the athletic freak rosters like UK, Arizona, Duke, and MSU has.
 
They are playing better ball. No doubt. But its just three games. Three out of 33. PLus, outside of UT, it's not like they've done this versus elite, or even pretty good teams. Bama is OK; 9 seed. UGA is bad
Fair, but who has Arizona beaten that you'd consider elite? All season
 
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Even if you look at how they've played over the last 8 games, overall, UK has been much, much better.

The thing about those 3 teams, UGA, Bama, and UT, they're all elite defensively. Especially Tennessee, who has a monster big man duo, and Kentucky has maintained the 2nd best offensive efficiency among power conference teams despite playing them. That's good news for UK.

Arizona has been good too, but they've played infinitely worse competition than Kentucky has, and has even posted lesser results in all facets. Now, Ayton is an alien species, and for that reason, Arizona is going to be super difficult. I'm not going to tell you that I'm uber confident that UK wins that, but it goes both ways. Arizona fans shouldn't be uber confident that they'll beat UK either. Just the nature of the beast when you have that much talent on the floor.

UVA should be the favorite, they deserved it, but losing your ACC 6th man of the year? That's a nasty, nasty blow. If 2015 UK lose Devin Booker, UK would have dropped games. If 2012 UK lost Darius Miller, then UK might not have won a championship that year. It's just as bad as losing a starter, especially when in UVA's case, he's your most athletic player, one of your ~2 best two-way players on the roster, and the only player on that roster that can physically match up with players on the athletic freak rosters like UK, Arizona, Duke, and MSU has.
Just think you are putting a little to much into this three game stretch. UT is a very, very good defensive team. Elite is a good word. ALabama is really good defensively. Not sure about elite. But really good. GA is good defensively. But not elite. UK did score well vs those teams; But having a guy go 7-7 from three(Bama game) certainly helps.

I agree UK is playing better. I just think you may be setting yourself up for a big downer. I mean this is still a team that a week ago or so got absolutely drilled by Florida.
 
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