Jalen Johnson?
- Thread starter tarwhiz
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Soft. Turns the ball over too much. Doesn't assert himself. I am actually impressed with K for slowing his roll. He has great talent, but needs more development than a lot of top players before him.
He's still Duke's best player though, and gives them a better chance to win the more he plays, imo.
I disagree. He may have the highest ceiling of any Duke player, but he hasn't shown anything consistently that would suggest that they are more likely to win with him playing vs not. I am perfectly fine with him being forced to earn his minutes. I am sick of players getting PT based on their HS rankings or their draft potential.
The turnovers are the most concerning part to me. He's a great passer with excellent vision. Too often, however, he's trying to make a spectacular pass, when he could simply go for the easier pass. He's averaging more turnovers than assists per game. Not good. I also feel like the ball doesn't move as well when Johnson is in the game. That being said, I can't overlook his talent. If he averaged 30 minutes a game, he would be averaging about 16 points, 9 boards, 3 assists, and 2 blocks a night. Those are 1st Team All-Conference type numbers. And I would say he's probably the most talented player in the ACC. I would prefer to see him get consistent minutes, even in spite of his mistakes.
Duke is not making the easy plays this year. Some of their TO's, I just say to myself, what was he doing or thinking right there? Frustrating. Although, If Roach, Steward, Williams and Baker and the other freshman stick around, with the incoming guys, I think they can be good. I think Hurt and Johnson are gone.
He had a foot injury in late December. Some think there might be lingering effects. But, Duke generally likes to keep injuries under wraps. So, perhaps there have been discussions with limiting his minutes a bit? From best I can tell, though, he looks healthy.
Yup. A LOT of really bad turnovers. Johnson is arguably the worst offender. Steward and Roach have a fair share, too.
I definitely wouldn't expect Hurt or Johnson to return. If everyone else returns, and you combine that talent with potentially Paolo, Baldwin, Griffin, and Keels , we should be a top 10 team. Easier said than done, of course.
I definitely expect Duke to bounce back nicely and grab one of the 3rd/4th spots in the ACC standings next year.
Honestly, the gap between Duke and whoever happens to be 3rd/4th this year isn't that large. All six of our conference losses have been by 7 points or less. We're 2-7 in single-digit games this season. We've struggled to close out games. But, If we're able to return 3 starters and bring in 3 lottery picks, I would have much higher expectations than 3rd or 4th in the league.
The problem is, Duke’s improvement won’t happen in a vacuum.
FSU is better this year, will probably return more, and is bringing in a better class (especially if you include Caleb Mills).
UVA is better this year, will probably return more, and could still sign a guy like Keels.
Louisville is less clear because of uncertainty around David Johnson, but they are at least as good as Duke this year, can return a ton next year, and have a very good class coming in.
I think FSU being projected ahead of Duke next year is perfectly reasonable. You guys have a lot of good pieces and could be a legitimate NCAA title contender. UVA, however, loses Hauser and Huff. As of right now, no new impact player is coming to Charlottesville next season. I think Murphy could have a monster junior year, possibly All-American and/or 1st Round Pick. Still, offsetting the losses of Hauser and Huff will not be easy. UVA's defense feel from #1 in 2020, to #16 with the losses of Diakite and Key. Losing Huff could compound the issue.
Still, I think it would be hard to put Duke lower than 2nd in the preseason if we return 3 starters and bring in potentially 3 lottery picks. The last time we did that was in the 97-98 season with Wojo, Langdon, and McLeod returning - and Brand, Battier, and Avery coming in. Obviously the '97 team was better than this current team, but we're still a top 50 KenPom team.
You don’t think Huff or Hauser return? Are either a first round pick? Maybe Huff?
And even still, Tony B has shown he just gets results. Hell, UVA finished 2nd in the ACC last season despite starting off slowly and also not having Hauser.
I don’t know. I could see ones who want masters degrees staying again. Especially if they don’t have any NBA or high level Europe chances.
Ive struggled with this as well. im sure there will be guys both ways, but at some point they are gonna want to make some $$$ before they get too old, even if it’s Cyprus.
Ive been salivating at getting Carlik back another season, and Malik since he’s missed all of this one but I’m sure it’s a pipe dream.
As far as johnson, I don’t follow closely, but his foot looked fine when he hammered on ole boy from Clemson 😂
Carlik is the type I could see coming back for another year. Experience what playing for a big boy school is like in a normal season.
Johnson has looked good for sure. I meant uncertainty with whether he declares for nba draft.
No, I don't believe they'll return. They're both 5th-year seniors. I get the impression that most seniors don't want an extra year, as they know they have a limited time to play professional basketball. Hauser and Huff would be 24/25 year-old rookies if they stayed another year. Last year's team was very offensively challenged, but they also had the #1 defense in the country. Losing Diakite and Key hurt their D this year. Huff will be a huge loss for the 2022 team. If Hauser and Huff both return, then that would obviously change things. But, those guys are already pretty old for college.
If Duke is able to sign Baldwin, which I think is very likely, they should probably start the season in the top 5 of the AP Poll. While I understand going from an average team to essentially a title contender doesn't seem like an easy process, the track record for classes with 3 top 10 recruits is pretty impressive. The number of returning starters is in parenthesis.
2019 Duke - Elite 8 (0)
2018 Duke - Elite 8 (1)
2017 Kentucky- Elite 8 (1)
2014 Kentucky- NCAA Finals (0)
2013 Kentucky- NIT (0)
2012 Kentucky- NCAA Champs (2)
2007 North Carolina- Elite 8 (3)
Every single team made at least the Elite 8, with the lone exception being '13 Kentucky. But, the 2012 HS Class was relatively weak IMO; they didn't return any starters; they also lost Nerlens Noel in the middle of the SEC season. Only the '07 UNC team returned 3 starters, and that was at a time when it wasn't uncommon to keep top 25/50 players for 3-4 years. So yes, if we are able to keep Steward, Moore, and Roach - and sign Baldwin, I think we'd be very, very dangerous.
Fair enough on UVA and guys being 24/25. I agree that a 25 year old will most likely want to go pro somewhere and start making money. And Huff and Hauser can certainly make money playing basketball.
I think the one unknown would be, are Americans allowed into EU countries by then? Might alter their decisions if not.
Regarding Duke with three top 10 recruits, I’ve got a couple thoughts.
1. Looks like preseason top 10 would be accurate, but top 5 might be stretching. As you say, only two of the teams made the final four. And one of them, 2014 UK, was actually an 8 seed in the NCAAT.
2. Finishing 1st or 2nd in the ACC is different than being a top 5 team or from making a deep run in March. As we’ve seen this year, young guys take time to gel and develop. It doesn’t click right away. What if Duke plays FSU or UL or UVA in December next year? Chances are an older UVA or FSU might be better prepared to win that game.
Basically, Duke finishing 3rd in the ACC and Duke going to the Elite 8 or Final Four can both happen.
That all seems reasonable. Although I'd say my original point also stands, and that being Duke should have higher expectations than finishing 3rd or 4th in the league next year. A potential Elite 8/Final Four team is more noteworthy than 3rd or 4th in league play.
Obviously a lot can happen between now and the fall. Nothing is a guarantee. Things could completely fall apart. I just like how the roster is setting up for next season. Most Duke fans weren't overly enthused about the current team's chances back in the preseason - although no could have expected we'd play this poorly. Many were thinking more like a 2nd Round/Sweet 16 type of down season.
^The 2014 Kentucky team was 17th in KenPom going into the tournament. Lost to Florida, the consensus #1 team, in the SEC Final. They were under-seeded, no question. Guess it to took them a while to figure things out.
If Duke does return three starters, the early season struggles shouldn't be nearly as bad, IMO.
If Duke does return three starters, the early season struggles shouldn't be nearly as bad, IMO.
I think we might be saying it’s “both/and.”
I think it’s reasonable to say Duke fans/team would have their sights set on an elite 8 or Final Four run next year.
But due to what other teams in the ACC look to be bringing back/bringing in, I think it’s also reasonable that Duke may not finish in the top 2 of the ACC regular season standings.
My push is that my guess is most Duke fans would see a 3rd place finish in the ACC as a let down. When in reality, they just might only be the 3rd best team over the course of the full regular season.
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