Gonzagas actual numbers

[IUfanBorden]

Gonzaga is really good. There’s also a reason they don’t often play to seed.

You might wanna research this...Naaah, here, I'll do it for ya:

Under Few:

2000: 10 seed-----SW 16
2001: 12 seed------SW 16
2002: 6 seed-----1st round
2003: 9 seed-----2nd round
2004: 2 seed---2nd round
2005: 3 seed---2nd tound
2006: 3 seed---SW 16
2007: 10 seed--1st round
2008: 7 seed---1st round
2009: 4 seed---SW 16
2010: 8 seed---2nd round
2011: 11 seed---2nd round
2012: 7 seed---2nd tound
2013: 1 seed---2nd round
2014: 8 seed---2nd round
2015: 2 seed---Elite 8
2016: 11 seed---SW 16
2017: 1 seed----RUnner-up
2918: 4 seed----SW 16
2019: 1 seed----Elite 8
2020: Cancelled
2021: 1 seed----Runner- Up

In 21 NCAAT , under Few, Gonzaga has played to their seed, OR better, 15 times. Three times as a 10 seed or wrose, they have advanced to the SW 16....

In other words, more often than not, the DO to play to their seed----or better.

 

[IUfanBorden]

In beginning of my paragraph I said in their current league. So St Mary's blew them out once 10yrs ago.

I meant if they played in a power league it can and would probably happen. Meaning more challenges if they played in a power league. Potential for blowouts like the ones you listed from non conference.

Since 2016, Gonzaga is 27-13 vs AP Top 25 teams...

If they played in a power league, would there potential for blowouts? Sure. Those leagues are better---No one is arguing that. But the league you play in, doesn't define how good you are. Not to mention, its not like you go n the road in the NCAAT....SO this notion of playing in tougher, raod venues somehow making you better/more prepared for a tournament that is played 100% on neutral sites is silly....

Gonzaga is really, really good. Its really that simple.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Man, I mean to an extent, I agree....But those gyms that are right on top of you---are fukin' loud, crazy and intimidating...St.Mary's might only have 4,000 people----but those muther****ers are damn near in your lap......And there's not a bunch of 65+ year old, billionaire donors hogging up the good seats---students are right there----ONT THE FLOOR.

When I worked int he GLVC, some of those places, especially when USI or KWC came to town? JFC-----crazy.

No there'sno venue in the WCC that compares to Rupp, Breslin, AH, AFH or CIS, etc, etc....But it doesn't mean those places are not hard to win at-----They are.

Building up the St Mary’s gym atmosphere is a bit much. There’s absolutely nothing intimidating about that place. I’ve seen high school games that were twice as loud.

Gonzaga is good, and would be good anywhere, but their competition and their venues suck. Period.

 

[Boilermaker03]

That's a hot take.

Do you feel comfortable saying Saint Mary's went toe-to-toe with the Big Ten leader? Was a 2 point game with less than a minute left against Wisconsin. They play a very slow tempo. They play very aggressive on the defensive end. It's hard for teams to establish rhythm against SMC.

Worse thing about SMC against the Zags was Kuhse was a little careless with the ball - and Bowen missed a bunch of wide-open threes. But overall, not a bad performance against one of the best teams in the country, especially on the defensive end.

Wisconsin is a different team now than they were then. They have improved the most out of the teams I've watched. I'd be shocked if Guard isn't National Coach of the Year.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Since 2016, Gonzaga is 27-13 vs AP Top 25 teams...

If they played in a power league, would there potential for blowouts? Sure. Those leagues are better---No one is arguing that. But the league you play in, doesn't define how good you are. Not to mention, its not like you go n the road in the NCAAT....SO this notion of playing in tougher, raod venues somehow making you better/more prepared for a tournament that is played 100% on neutral sites is silly....

Gonzaga is really, really good. Its really that simple.

It's not only about T25 games. It's about trap games and letdown games too. Pulling 40 random T25 games over a 6 year stretch isn't incorporating all the power 5 challenges I'm talking about completely, if at all.

There is no LSU in their league or Florida. Or Penn St. Or TCU. Etc.

They may not face a T75 team for weeks to even a month some years. In a P5 you may may play 7 of 9 vs the T75 and a couple might be T10.

As for venues sorry at Wisconsin is just not the same as at St Mary's.

I think Zags are very good they just don't face the same hurdles.

They will never go 1-2 or even 2-1 in league play with 4 of their next 5 being against the T75 most years if ever.

 

[jhmossy]

People will continue to say that Gonzaga can’t win it all because they play in a weak conference until they actually win it all.

So many people said UVA would never win it all with our style of play…and then we won it all.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

People will continue to say that Gonzaga can’t win it all because they play in a weak conference until they actually win it all.

So many people said UVA would never win it all with our style of play…and then we won it all.

I'm not saying they can't win it all. I'm saying their schedule doesn't present them with anywhere near the challenge other top programs have.

They just won't have any years where they go .500 in league play roughly because their current league doesn't have the depth to put that on them.

 

[RR30]

I'm not saying they can't win it all. I'm saying their schedule doesn't present them with anywhere near the challenge other top programs have.

They just won't have any years where they go .500 in league play roughly because their current league doesn't have the depth to put that on them.

I'm not sure anyone is arguing that? Gonzaga absolutely has an easier conference schedule than power conference teams.

 

[GE Nole]

Would be interesting to know what their algorithm is. Margin of victory I'm sure is factored in there somewhere. Wisconsin and Providence would both be higher if it was strictly based on wins and losses, even if it's weighted heavier for Quad 1/2 games.

Margin of victory is absolutely factored in. It’s no secret. Unweighted efficiency margins are a large factor of the NET. So if you score 1.4 ppp and give up only 0.8 ppp against a bunch of cupcakes, your NET ranking will soar.

 

[RipThru]

So we are at the point where we are holding San Francisco up as some measuring stick or some formidable team? They are 23-8, 4th in their shitty conference, and have losses to Loyola and Portland, and been in absolute dogfights with Grand Canyon and Arizona State. Geez.

 

[GE Nole]

Would be interesting to know what their algorithm is. Margin of victory I'm sure is factored in there somewhere. Wisconsin and Providence would both be higher if it was strictly based on wins and losses, even if it's weighted heavier for Quad 1/2 games.

Also, it’s not weighted heavier for quad 1/2 games. The quadrant rank, or even the NET rank, of the team you’re playing has zero bearing on the credit you get for the game.

The committee uses quad ranks. The NET uses location of game, outcome of game, efficiency margin, and record of opponent.

 

[dukedevilz]

San Fran and BYU won’t, or shouldn’t, be tournament teams. BYU has some good wins. They have some bad losses.

In a conference that gets 6 teams in the field, these two would be no better than 7th; probably 10th or worse.

Gonzaga is really good. There’s also a reason they don’t often play to seed.

TCU is the 6th highest ranked NET team (46th) in the Big 12. They lost to Santa Clara, the 5th highest ranked WCC team (72nd) on a neutral court by 19 points. BYU (52nd in the NET) has sort of fallen apart, as they've had a few season-ending injuries. I don't expect them to make the tournament. Crazy thing about the WCC is, Gonzaga is getting 6 Quad 1 games in a 14-game conference slate, while Duke is only getting 3 Quad 1 games over a 20-game conference schedule.

If you've watched San Francisco play at all this year, I'm guessing it's only been a few minutes against Gonzaga. They're a tournament team by the metrics - and by the eye test. Bouyea is one of the best guards in America.

Also, what are you you talking about Gonzaga not playing to seed?

2015- 2 seed, 3 wins
2016- 11 seed, 2 wins
2017- 1 seed, 5 wins
2018- 4 seed, 2 wins
2019- 1 seed, 3 wins
2021- 1 seed, 5 wins

If a 1 seed is expected to win 4 games, and a 2 seed is expected to win 3 games, and so forth...

They would have been projected to win 17 games. And yet, they've won 20 games during that time period - which is 3 more tournament wins than any other school.

 

[dukedevilz]

Wisconsin is a different team now than they were then. They have improved the most out of the teams I've watched. I'd be shocked if Guard isn't National Coach of the Year.

They beat a decent Texas A&M team, a very talented and healthy Houston team, and a good Saint Mary's team on three consecutive days in November. They were already good. And perhaps they have improved a bit. Yet, if Saint Mary's is beating Gonzaga and holding them to under 37% shooting from the floor, perhaps SMC hasn't exactly plateaued. Saint Mary's wouldn't win the Big Ten. But, I do think they'd have a winning record in league play.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I'm not sure anyone is arguing that? Gonzaga absolutely has an easier conference schedule than power conference teams.

It's being argued or maybe not valued enough. Borden is pointing to 27-13 vs T25 in last 6 yrs which while true...I'm pointing out IMO that doesn't capture the advantages of playing in a typically trash league all those years

Some years they are just over seeded and while they play up to that seed many times in the NCAAT they still maybe warranted a worse seed and they may have gotten lesser results, more flame outs. It's just hard to know because their league is usually JV and they cruise.

 

[dukedevilz]

Margin of victory is absolutely factored in. It’s no secret. Unweighted efficiency margins are a large factor of the NET. So if you score 1.4 ppp and give up only 0.8 ppp against a bunch of cupcakes, your NET ranking will soar.

I thought I read somewhere when the NET first came out that they weren't revealing the algorithm. So, never looked into it. So, it's basically the same thing as the RPI, except now it's factoring in margin of victory. I know RPI used 1.4 points for road wins and 0.6 points for home wins.

So, they're using offensive efficiency margin minus defensive efficiency margin - in lieu of average margin of victory?

Well, when you factor in the home/road/neutral court wins/losses, Duke has 19.6 points, while Houston has 16.8. So, those efficiency margins have helped Houston quite a bit.

 

[dukedevilz]

They just won't have any years where they go .500 in league play roughly because their current league doesn't have the depth to put that on them.

National title contenders don't go .500 in league play. Sure, Gonzaga could have been .500 or below in 2016 or 2014. But, if you're talking about the past 7 years or so? Not really. They've consistently been a top 10 team. They wouldn't be .500 in any league.

If you look at the recent years where they're getting a 1 or 2 seed (2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022), they have a combined record of 28-7 against top 50 teams during the regular season. If you win 80% of your games against top 50 opponents, no conference is going to significantly hold you back.

 

[AuHoosier420]

National title contenders don't go .500 in league play. Sure, Gonzaga could have been .500 or below in 2016 or 2014. But, if you're talking about the past 7 years or so? Not really. They've consistently been a top 10 team. They wouldn't be .500 in any league.

If you look at the recent years where they're getting a 1 or 2 seed (2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022), they have a combined record of 28-7 against top 50 teams during the regular season. If you win 80% of your games against top 50 opponents, no conference is going to significantly hold you back.

Uconn has won multiple national titles with .500 in league play. So your first sentence isn’t exactly correct

 

[dukedevilz]

Uconn has won multiple national titles with .500 in league play. So your first sentence isn’t exactly correct

Your sentence isn't correct, either. 2011, bud. That was the only year they were .500. I'm well aware of that team. But, that was not a normal year (relatively weak contenders), nor was it a normal conference, as the Big East had 3 number 1 seeds in that league. Also, if you factor in the conference tournament, they were 14-9. They did receive a 3 seed in the tournament after all.

Every once in a while you might get something out of the ordinary. But, that is not normal. .500 teams are almost never contenders.

 

[AuHoosier420]

Your sentence isn't correct, either. 2011, bud. That was the only year they were .500. I'm well aware of that team. But, that was not a normal year (relatively weak contenders), nor was it a normal conference, as the Big East had 3 number 1 seeds in that league. Also, if you factor in the conference tournament, they were 14-9. They did receive a 3 seed in the tournament after all.

Every once in a while you might get something out of the ordinary. But, that is not normal. .500 teams are almost never contenders.

12-6 in the American in 2014 would of been .500 or less in any other conference.

 

[dukedevilz]

12-6 in the American in 2014 would of been .500 or less in any other conference.

First, 12-6 is not .500. Also, Louisville was in that conference, the #1 team in KenPom in 2014. So...

 

[AuHoosier420]

First, 12-6 is not .500. Also, Louisville was in that conference, the #1 team in KenPom in 2014. So...

Ok. Whatever you say. Keep thinking Gonzaga doesn’t have an advantage with seeding when they only play 7 legit regular season games a year

 

[dukedevilz]

Ok. Whatever you say. Keep thinking Gonzaga doesn’t have an advantage with seeding when they only play 7 legit regular season games a year

Fun fact. The AAC had more top 50 teams in 2014 than the SEC.

AAC
1. Louisville
15. UConn
27. Cincinnati
31. SMU
36. Memphis

SEC
3. Florida
10. Tennessee
13. Kentucky
44. Arkansas

Also, another fun fact: Gonzaga has more Quad 1 wins than Auburn.

 

[AuHoosier420]

Fun fact. The AAC had more top 50 teams in 2014 than the SEC.

AAC
1. Louisville
15. UConn
27. Cincinnati
31. SMU
36. Memphis

SEC
3. Florida
10. Tennessee
13. Kentucky
44. Arkansas

Also, another fun fact: Gonzaga has more Quad 1 wins than Auburn.

And they got spanked in their home state by a team auburn beat twice. Move along

 

[GE Nole]

I thought I read somewhere when the NET first came out that they weren't revealing the algorithm. So, never looked into it. So, it's basically the same thing as the RPI, except now it's factoring in margin of victory. I know RPI used 1.4 points for road wins and 0.6 points for home wins.

So, they're using offensive efficiency margin minus defensive efficiency margin - in lieu of average margin of victory?

Well, when you factor in the home/road/neutral court wins/losses, Duke has 19.6 points, while Houston has 16.8. So, those efficiency margins have helped Houston quite a bit.

Yes. 1.4 and 0.6 remains. They are using offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency. They originally had margin of victory in there additionally (capped at 10) but I think they stripped that out when they finally realized that it was redundant.

There’s supposedly a couple other minor factors but it’s basically the RPI plus efficiency margin.

 

[Bert Higginbotha]

After reading all of this stuff proves one thing: Gonzaga benefits from playing in a weak league.

The ACC and B1G fans are always knocking Kentucky because Kentucky plays in the "weak" SEC. I never bought that as UK used to be in the same league as UNC, Duke et.al. and UK won. There have been years when UK benefited from a down SEC; however, Duke this year is equally being benefited by a down ACC. The B1G does not have a bunch of titles lately either, so maybe they are not a tough as they think.

Seeding makes a big difference between getting to the sweet sixteen or elite eight. A 1 seed gets a darn near clear road to the round of 32. Plus most 2 seeds survive the first game. Also the region and seeding makes a big difference. Usually the Zags get a high seed and are placed in the West region. It is historically the weakest region. That is a big advantage.

Say what you want and dig up whatever facts you want to justify your point, but the fact remains Gonzaga plays in a weak conference and usually is seeded higher than if they played in a tough league.

I agree with @ThePhog08 points.

 

[dukedevilz]

And they got spanked in their home state by a team auburn beat twice. Move along

lol transitive property. Really?

Texas Southern > Florida > Auburn

Did I do it right?

 

[ExitFlagger]

Wisconsin is a different team now than they were then. They have improved the most out of the teams I've watched. I'd be shocked if Guard isn't National Coach of the Year.

You'd be shocked? You don't think that Lloyd or Mark Adams or the Providence coach deserve strong consideration?

 

[dukedevilz]

You'd be shocked? You don't think that Lloyd or Mark Adams or the Providence coach deserve strong consideration?

TJ Otzelberger should be considered, as well. To go from 2-22 to 20-9 is quite the transformation.

 

[ExitFlagger]

TJ Otzelberger should be considered, as well. To go from 2-22 to 20-9 is quite the transformation.

True. He lost all the top players from that team too.

 

[RipThru]

TJ Otzelberger should be considered, as well. To go from 2-22 to 20-9 is quite the transformation.

Now do John Calipari.

 

[dukedevilz]

Now do John Calipari.

He could be up there, too. I don't have any issues with that.

But, would he viewed differently than Otzelberger? Yes, most likley. Simply because Calipari was bringing in 3 of the best transfers in America, as well as a 5-star recruit. I'm okay with him being under consideration, though.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

National title contenders don't go .500 in league play. Sure, Gonzaga could have been .500 or below in 2016 or 2014. But, if you're talking about the past 7 years or so? Not really. They've consistently been a top 10 team. They wouldn't be .500 in any league.

If you look at the recent years where they're getting a 1 or 2 seed (2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022), they have a combined record of 28-7 against top 50 teams during the regular season. If you win 80% of your games against top 50 opponents, no conference is going to significantly hold you back.

This yr their league is significantly better than most years right?

They still own 13 quad 4 wins out of 27 games played. Literally every other game is a night off even with an upgraded league. They have 2 games vs quad 2. This is what I'm pointing at to explain why their entire experience is unlike p5 and it's significant to acknowledge.

KU has 2 Q4 games and 7 Q2.
Providence has 5 Q4 games and 10 Q2.
Wisky has 4 Q4 games and 10 Q2.
Auburn has 4 Q4 games and 7Q2.

13 Q4 hot damn Ipartiedwithhopgood might get some dunks while the front line guys blaze a J and chill.


That lack of Q2 competition + high quantity Q4 keeps them from getting pegged by those 6th and 7th place league teams in p5 and helps them avoid slumps nearly every team has to deal with. We have no idea how far the SOS improvement would weigh them down year by year.

This allows so many advantages that a computer isn't going to explain. They can rest guys banged up. Reduce minutes to stay fresh all year. Compile gaudy W/L record to improve a seed line by a level or two. That's gonna help big time that 1st game vs a 16 seed is significantly different than the 14 or 13. Opponents don't find film that exposes their weaknesses.

Without doing a ton of legwork I can imagine their schedule being even easier over the last couple decades.

I like 'em. Not saying they won't win a title. Hope they do would be great story. What they've accomplished is pretty amazing.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Now do John Calipari.

You think Calipari should be rewarded for drastically underachieving last year?

 

[ExitFlagger]

He could be up there, too. I don't have any issues with that.

But, would he viewed differently than Otzelberger? Yes, most likley. Simply because Calipari was bringing in 3 of the best transfers in America, as well as a 5-star recruit. I'm okay with him being under consideration, though.

Kentucky's basically done what they were expected to do. Including him with the others in that list would be a joke.

 

[dukedevilz]

This yr their league is significantly better than most years right?

They still own 13 quad 4 wins out of 27 games played. Literally every other game is a night off even with an upgraded league. They have 2 games vs quad 2. This is what I'm pointing at to explain why their entire experience is unlike p5 and it's significant to acknowledge.

KU has 6 Q4 games and 7 Q2.
Providence has 5 Q4 games and 10 Q2.
Wisky has 4 Q4 games and 10 Q2.
Auburn has 4 Q4 games and 7Q2.

13 Q4 hot damn Ipartiedwithhopgood might get some dunks while the front line guys blaze a J and chill.


That lack of Q2 competition + high quantity Q4 keeps them from getting pegged by those 6th and 7th place league teams in p5 and helps them avoid slumps nearly every team has to deal with. We have no idea how far the SOS improvement would weigh them down year by year.

This allows so many advantages that a computer isn't going to explain. They can rest guys banged up. Reduce minutes to stay fresh all year. Compile gaudy W/L record to improve a seed line by a level or two. That's gonna help big time that 1st game vs a 16 seed is significantly different than the 14 or 13. Opponents don't find film that exposes their weaknesses.

Without doing a ton of legwork I can imagine their schedule being even easier over the last couple decades.

I like 'em. Not saying they won't win a title. Hope they do would be great story. What they've accomplished is pretty amazing.

That's a fair point. Almost half of the games are Quad 4 opponents.

Kind of looks like Few knew what he was doing with his OOC schedule. They had 13 OCC games. 5 Quad 1 Games and 8 Quad 4 games. Nothing in-between. The only Quad 2/3 games occur within WCC play... He has 6 Quad 1 games within the WCC. He'll probably get 2 more in the WCC Tournament. So, a good thing for Few and Gonzaga, is their last 4 games before the NCAAT, the Zags would have played 4 consecutive Quad 1 games.

I was having more of an issue with the idea of their league not being strong enough to ever experience a .500 year. Which is true, of course. But, if we're talking about a top 5/10 Gonzaga team, no conference is going to hold them to a .500 record.

 

[AuHoosier420]

lol transitive property. Really?

Texas Southern > Florida > Auburn

Did I do it right?

lol transitive property. Really?

Texas Southern > Florida > Auburn

Did I do it right?

Texas southern beat florida twice?

 

[dukedevilz]

Texas southern beat florida twice?

Apologies. Transitive Property only applies if you beat the team twice ? Did Alabama beat Gonzaga twice? What other arbitrary rules can you educate the rest of us on?

 

[AuHoosier420]

Apologies. Transitive Property only applies if you beat the team twice ? Did Alabama beat Gonzaga twice? What other arbitrary rules can you educate the rest of us on?

I am just preparing myself for your blind defense of the favorable officiating duke is going to get in the ncaa tourney. We all know it’s coming so just own it verses denying when it does eventually occur

 

[dukedevilz]

I am just preparing myself for your blind defense of the favorable officiating duke is going to get in the ncaa tourney. We all know it’s coming so just own it verses denying when it does eventually occur

Shifting the argument. Excellent decision on your part.

 

[AuHoosier420]

Shifting the argument. Excellent decision on your part.

No shift at all. I enjoy going after know it all blue blood types they believe only their opinion matters. You are the most fun to poke