First 1 seed to lose?
- Thread starter GE Nole
- Start date
Michigan seems to be the consensus. I really try not to go chalk. In the last Final Four, I had Texas Tech and Auburn in there, which worked out okay. But, I'm struggling not to have Gonzaga, Illinois, and Baylor all in the Final Four. Of course none of them are guarantees, but those three 1 seeds all seem a good 4-6 points better than anyone else in their respective regions.
Michigan might be playing in the hardest region - and who knows if Isaiah Livers will even be able to suit up in the tournament? They could easily lose in the R32 or S16.
Michigan might be playing in the hardest region - and who knows if Isaiah Livers will even be able to suit up in the tournament? They could easily lose in the R32 or S16.
Whichever 1-seed plays first will lose first. All four 1-seeds will lose to 16-seeds by 20+ points this year. None of them will go on to win the national championship the following year.
Illinois-Loyola is a dangerous matchup. Loyola is criminally underseeded and will hold the mental edge going up against big brother.
Nice calls!
For me the hardest part with the 1s this year isn’t the strength of the 1s, it’s the relative weakness of the 4s/5s. Villanova without Gillespie has no chance against Baylor. Purdue doesn’t matchup well with them.
UVA and Creighton both appear to be easy fodder for the Zags. And while I like Tennessee and Okie State, both are reliant on freshmen, which isn’t ideal for March, especially against a team like Illinois.
And if you're going back to 1985, of the 140 teams that have been 1 seeds, 97 of them have advanced to the Elite 8 (69.3%). It's usually pretty safe to advance 1s to the Elite 8, probably more so this year with Gonzaga, Illinois, and Baylor.
I would agree that the 4/5 seeds look mostly underwhelming. I will say, however, that the 8/9 seeds look better than a typical year. One or two of those 1 seeds might get a good scare in the 2nd Round.
EvilMonkeyInTheCloset
Well-Known Member
IIRC, there’s been at least one 1 seed to lose before the elite 8 in like 9 of the last 10 years, and many years two. But this year...idk just seems more chalk at the top.
I know they have underwhelmed this year, but UNC as an 8....just need a good game from their guards and they can kick your @$$
UNC will definitely give Baylor some problems with their size underneath.
But let’s be real—if it’s a close game With 4 min to go, you gonna trust Caleb Love or Jared Butler?
I'd rather play Loyola than GT. Krutwig is their best player. I think Kofi should be able to handle him. Loyola didnt play much outside of their conference. Wisconsin drubbed them and I think Wisconsin is the 9th best team in the Big Ten. The only thing that makes me concerned about Loyola is the "little brother" mindset. It can def. play a role.
If Loyola didnt make their run a few years ago, I dont think too many people are talking about them now.
I feel confident that UVA would play Gonzaga much closer the second time around. Bennett usually does well in rematches and Gonzaga may take us a little lightly based on the first matchup. I doubt Kispert shoots as well as he did the first time around. Our defense has improved over the course of the year. Probably won't be enough to win but I'm not willing to admit we're easy fodder for them.
Still salty after all this time, I see.........
Less salty since we won it all. But yeah I definitely want other 1-seeds to lose. Anyone in my position would want the same. This is not where you want to be unique and stand out lol.
Fair enough. Good point on Bennett in second matchups. I always like FSU in round 1 vs UVA more than round 2.
Michigan is most vulnerable, assuming no major upsets happen they are likely the first #1 seed to fall.
No but if UNC has a rhythm in the game, they are really hard to beat. And if they have their usual rebounding spree, they can get the other team into some foul situations that may hinder their normal performance. If I'm Baylor, I'm pissed at that potential matchup
Iowa.
Oh wait, they're not a 1 seed.
It'll be Illinois.
Oh wait, they're not a 1 seed.
It'll be Illinois.
Drinking game. Shot every time they show Sister Jean.
It's a possibility. I'd love for FSU to be the one to put them out, but I won't cry if we get to the round of 16 and have LSU waiting for us instead of Michigan
I'll die before she does
EvilMonkeyInTheCloset
Well-Known Member
Is this four straight years Michigan has outperformed your preseason rankings?
We have had our fair share of tournament injuries lately as well, it really makes you think what could have been when you lose a game you know those guys would have made a significant impact in
You guys gotta be a little nervous about that first matchup with Ohio, though. Jason Preston is a borderline All-American. And little to no practice time certainly won't help.
Haha right! UNC's bigs are going to be a problem for anyone. Honestly, I kind of feel like they play at a higher ceiling with Brooks on the bench. Just not sure that the bigs can completely compensate for the relatively pedestrian guard play.
Yeah my increased confidence vs Gonzaga has nothing to do with the game vs. Ohio. Could easily lose that game or the next.
Haha close, but not quite. I've only done it three years. In 2020, I had you guys at #30. And you finished 29th in the voting for the AP Poll. This year, I had you at #23. Obviously too low, but better than the AP, who had you at #25 - and the Coaches Poll, who had you all at #28.
How about metrics which show better overall team strength instead of final AP poll that was a snapshot of where the team was following Livers missing 6 weeks? I think we were top 10 in Kenpom when Livers went down and still finished 16th.
I got em out vs LSU (bit of a long shot but LSU has talent), but if they do win that then maybe FSU, then maybe Texas? That’s rough.
Don’t worry I put Michigan out in rd 2 of my bracket which means they are final 4 bound. You’re welcome.
Maybe. But, you guys were still only 6-7 in top 50 games with Livers. 9-12 overall in top 50 games. 10-10 in league play. Not exactly killing it. At any rate, I don't think 30th was too far off.
Do you really think "record vs top 50" is a better overall gauge than Kenpom/Torvik? Your metric grossly undervalues stuff like Michigan's neutral court win over #2 Gonzaga. Beating #49 =/= beating #2 even if technically both teams would be 1-0 over top 50 teams.
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