ADVERTISEMENT

dukedevilz 2020-21 Preseason Top 50

Chris Beard is getting set up. Expectations went up. Even last year they started in the Top 15. They weren't a Top 15 team last year.
Just how CBB is.

I expect the same thing to happen. I like Beard.
But I do know there comes a time people start questioning his coaching ability if they keep putting in the Top 10/15 every year and he doesn't end up there
With his improvements in the recruiting front it wouldn’t surprise me if he maintained national relevance
 
With his improvements in the recruiting front it wouldn’t surprise me if he maintained national relevance

He will
He will have teams. Burnett is the guy.

I want to use this an example...

2018-2019 WV was ranked #11 to start the season. Somewhere around there.
They lost Jevon Carter. Most people who watched them knew how great Carter was
WV finished last in the Big 12

Going into last season all of these writers had WVU near the bottom .
Andy Katz had them #10.
Huggins was saying that he had a team
WVU finished tied for third....

Mind boggling how incorrect the supposed national writers are
Like they don't even watch the games.

Tech lost their three leading players off an average team...
They could end up clicking at some point during the season
But won't be all year like 2018-2019...

Culver was a National Player of the Year caliber player.
Burnett could end up being the guy but won't be as a true freshman in November and December
 
Who said he was...

1/2 of coaching is having the correct pieces.
You can be the greatest coach in the world. Sometimes you just don't have the players.

To me...
Players come before I look at the coaches.
Because a dog could sit on the bench if you have the correct players.

It is on the coaching staff to bring in the correct players.
More than that...Have the correct players on the court

Look at Roy Williams last year.

His issues coming into this year is that team doesn't know how to win.
 
You will be wrong.
I expect an apology at the end of the year

Should listen to people who pay attention to the Big 12 instead of national guys
National guys are usually wrong because you can't be that knowledgeable about all the conferences and teams.
But you can 10.

Iol wow. It's okay to have differing views. And I'm not doing a breakdown of a single conference. I'm projecting the top teams in all of college basketball. So, what would your top 50 look like? Or at least top 25? Maybe I'm not an expert, but I do watch 20-30 games a week, so I feel I cover more ground than most.
 
Iol wow. It's okay to have differing views. And I'm not doing a breakdown of a single conference. I'm projecting the top teams in all of college basketball. So, what would your top 50 look like? Or at least top 25? Maybe I'm not an expert, but I do watch 20-30 games a week, so I feel I cover more ground than most.

I couldn't do it..
I respect that you are.

I can tell you about the Big 12. That is it.
 
Chris Beard is getting set up. Expectations went up. Even last year they started in the Top 15. They weren't a Top 15 team last year.
Just how CBB is.

I expect the same thing to happen. I like Beard.
But I do know there comes a time people start questioning his coaching ability if they keep putting in the Top 10/15 every year and he doesn't end up there

They might not have been top 15, but they were 20-25 on most advanced rankings.
 
They might not have been top 15, but they were 20-25 on most advanced rankings.

Inconsistent...
This is the issue with KenPom...
Beating a team like TCU by 30 gets a higher value than beating them 5.

They had a few blowout wins against the bottom of the conference.

But they were 2-6 against Texas, WVU, Baylor and Kansas.
One of those wins were Texas when they lost I believe 3 guys during the course of the game.
They ended up losing 3 in Lubbock. Kansas, Baylor and Texas all won in Lubbock.
Texas gave them their worst home defeat since Chris Beard's first season


I saw a lot of Tech last year.
They didn't capture what they had in that Louisville game the entire season.
That was in December.

Ended up finding the season on a 4 game losing streak.
Good chance it would have been 6 if the season wouldn't have ended.
 
Inconsistent...
This is the issue with KenPom...
Beating a team like TCU by 30 gets a higher value than beating them 5.

They had a few blowout wins against the bottom of the conference.

But they were 2-6 against Texas, WVU, Baylor and Kansas.
One of those wins were Texas when they lost I believe 3 guys during the course of the game.
They ended up losing 3 in Lubbock. Kansas, Baylor and Texas all won in Lubbock.
Texas gave them their worst home defeat since Chris Beard's first season


I saw a lot of Tech last year.
They didn't capture what they had in that Louisville game the entire season.
That was in December.

Ended up finding the season on a 4 game losing streak.
Good chance it would have been 6 if the season wouldn't have ended.
lol why are you saying that like Texas dominated us? It was 4 point game with less than 45 seconds left. We lost to Kansas by a combined 7 points in both games. Baylor beat us by a combined 8 points one in OT and I think we would both agree Baylor’s and Kansas’ roster were significantly better than Techs. This season we won’t have to rely on freshmen to lead us in scoring.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TechFan88
That space that wasn't there in 2018-2019 was there...
The guards could do whatever they wanted

Baylor is now the team that Texas knows they have to get better to beat.
Not Tech.

Tech frustrated Texas in 2018-2019
Wasn't the case last year. Maybe could happen again.

As of now. It is Baylor.

Texas is following the Baylor blueprint
They end the season similar to where Baylor was in 2018-2019

But except for Gillespie. That entire team is back
 
Beard wasn’t the first or second UNLV’s choice back a few years. I knew he can coach with any talents available to him. Too bad he didn’t stay in Vegas. Not very hard to recruit for UNLV.
 
With the amount of transfers it makes things complicated.

Florida for example last year wasn't a great team but people thought that Blackshear coming in from VA Tech were going to make them a Top 10 team.

What one player does for one coach isn't the same as he does for another....
E M Long ended up one of your better players at UNLV.
If you looked at his stats from Texas you expected a bench player

Transfers make things very difficult to rank teams now

EM Long was a great addition to the young core of Ham and Coleman. He provided leadership and that 3rd scoring options. UNLV now have an abundant of shooters and leaders. Juniors Ham and Coleman and Jenkins are the leaders now. UNLV Have a bunch of muscles and shooters.
 
EM Long was a great addition to the young core of Ham and Coleman. He provided leadership and that 3rd scoring options. UNLV now have an abundant of shooters and leaders. Juniors Ham and Coleman and Jenkins are the leaders now. UNLV Have a bunch of muscles and shooters.

Texas played S Dakota State with Jenkins.

I came away more impressed with him than Mike Daum
Everyone talked about Daum but Jenkins was their best player.

Jenkins could play in the Big 12 and play at a high level...
I looked at his info. Scored 35 on Memphis while at S Dakota State.
 
There are whispers that UVa might have Trey Murphy immediately eligible to play this season after transferring to Virginia from Rice in the spring. Big wing who made 139 3-pointers in his two seasons at Rice and averaged 13.7 points and 5.5 rebounds last year. Supposedly he's been really good in practice since arriving in Charlottesville and more capable of defending wings than our staff might have expected. We'll see what happens but if Murphy is eligible, we're going to be tough to deal with given the added offensive firepower that he adds to the mix along with Hauser.
 
Little bit of truth there
He is long and athletic

Watch his game against UH because Rice doesn't really play great competition in CUSA
Don't remember all their games last year.

They played Arkansas as well.

But in terms of how much of an impact he can make...

I would wait on that
 
I'm probably selling you guys short a little bit. Maybe you deserve to be a little higher since Jairus Hamilton got the waiver, but I still don't see Maryland as a top 50 team. Wiggins, Ayala, and Morsell are your top 3 returning scorers from last season. All 3 of those guys had a player efficiency rating below 15, which has been designated as the average PER among all players. All 3 of those guys had an efg below 50%. That should be concerning. I think anyone in the top 75 could realistically make the tournament, but Maryland has some serious fighting to do to make the tournament.
All 3 took a backseat to the 2 that left. I think the expectation is players improve and step up. Jarius is a steady productive asset and Chol is healthy and should hopefully give some more consistent impactful minutes.
 
All 3 took a backseat to the 2 that left. I think the expectation is players improve and step up. Jarius is a steady productive asset and Chol is healthy and should hopefully give some more consistent impactful minutes.

All the more reason to have higher efficiency ratings, as there should be more space to get off open shots. I expect Aaron Wiggins to take a big step forward. I could see him making one of the all-conference teams. Morsell, Ayala, and Hamilton are decent, but they really need to make steady improvement if Maryland is going to have a chance at the tournament. I do like Chol's upside. If healthy, he could be a nice, disruptive force in the paint. We shall see.
 
Texas played S Dakota State with Jenkins.

I came away more impressed with him than Mike Daum
Everyone talked about Daum but Jenkins was their best player.

Jenkins could play in the Big 12 and play at a high level...
I looked at his info. Scored 35 on Memphis while at S Dakota State.

Mike Daum was the 3x Summit League POY for a reason.

s in 2018-2019

But except for Gillespie. That entire team is back

Bandoo and Clark are also gone. They're a title contender, for sure. But, they'll probably have to rely on a freshmen to play the 5.
 
Amazing work, as always. Can’t tell you how much it’s appreciated.

I’m usually pessimistic as is, but I’d be thrilled if Duke’s flirting with a Top 10 position, I just don’t see it. Not too up on some of the incomers as it’s been an odd off-season, but I’m thinking that we’re going to see the troubles that usually accompany the freshman heavy teams (defense, inconsistency, etc.) but don’t have the crazy star power to overcome it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dukedevilz
Amazing work, as always. Can’t tell you how much it’s appreciated.

I’m usually pessimistic as is, but I’d be thrilled if Duke’s flirting with a Top 10 position, I just don’t see it. Not too up on some of the incomers as it’s been an odd off-season, but I’m thinking that we’re going to see the troubles that usually accompany the freshman heavy teams (defense, inconsistency, etc.) but don’t have the crazy star power to overcome it.

I do expect a considerable amount of production from Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt. Tre Jones looked much improved during his sophomore year; I think it's reasonable to expect Moore and Hurt to take the next step forward. And Jalen Johnson is easily a step ahead of the rest of the freshmen. I think Hurt and Johnson both have All-American potential. But, yes, there are obvious weaknesses with this team - and it's very possible we perform similar to the 2016 team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GE Nole
So glad you put this out @dukedevilz . I was looking at teams to possibly put some money on that look like good value to win the championship.
As far as Maryland is concerned I agree we will struggle and will probably be in the 50-60 range. We could possibly completely bottom out in a pretty difficult B1G. If that happens I wouldn't mind a hard reset. I would drop Penn State with Chambers being fired. Too big of a question mark right now for them, although it looks like their interim coach is going to try and go with the Iowa approach and score a shit ton of points and not play defense.
 
So glad you put this out @dukedevilz . I was looking at teams to possibly put some money on that look like good value to win the championship.
As far as Maryland is concerned I agree we will struggle and will probably be in the 50-60 range. We could possibly completely bottom out in a pretty difficult B1G. If that happens I wouldn't mind a hard reset. I would drop Penn State with Chambers being fired. Too big of a question mark right now for them, although it looks like their interim coach is going to try and go with the Iowa approach and score a shit ton of points and not play defense.

Yeah, I think the 50-60 range is reasonable. It could easily swing 10-15 more spots, in the best/worst case scenario.

Those Vegas odds are funny because Duke and Kentucky are almost always the worst valued teams. Tennessee, West Virginia and Texas Tech at 28/1 have good value.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bMORE607
Yeah, I think the 50-60 range is reasonable. It could easily swing 10-15 more spots, in the best/worst case scenario.

Those Vegas odds are funny because Duke and Kentucky are almost always the worst valued teams. Tennessee, West Virginia and Texas Tech at 28/1 have good value.
I feel like we are almost on the same page. Went with Wisconsin(@jwardelt ) +1700, Texas Tech, WVA, and Tenn all at +2500, and Florida +3500,
 
All about hedging in the tourney for some guaranteed profit.

For sure. So, how much money per team are you putting on the line?

I found it interesting that the latest Jeopardy whiz, the guy that won like 30 in a row or so, committed himself to being a full-time sports gambler. Obviously he's not placing bets by chance, but using a robust system to beat the odds.
 
I feel like we are almost on the same page. Went with Wisconsin(@jwardelt ) +1700, Texas Tech, WVA, and Tenn all at +2500, and Florida +3500,

IFO4.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: bMORE607
@bMORE607

Let's say you have Wisconsin and West Virginia in the Elite 8. At what point do you start placing bets on the teams they're facing?
 
@bMORE607

Let's say you have Wisconsin and West Virginia in the Elite 8. At what point do you start placing bets on the teams they're facing?
Depends on the team and the amount to win. If they look like they could easily make a elite 8 run I won't hedge until sweet 16. I add teams throughout the year, as well. I just don't think the team's value I've placed bets is going to go down much. I don't like Illinois at +1200, but if they could drop a couple early B1G games and I could get them at +2000, I'll jump on that train. I had between 12 and 15 teams for last years tournament until it got axed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dukedevilz
For sure. So, how much money per team are you putting on the line?

I found it interesting that the latest Jeopardy whiz, the guy that won like 30 in a row or so, committed himself to being a full-time sports gambler. Obviously he's not placing bets by chance, but using a robust system to beat the odds.
$10-$20 on futures bets depending on the sport. I'm not full-time guy, nor do I want to be. I'll put some research into it read a gambling book here and there, but in the end it's just for fun and to try and make a couple bucks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dukedevilz
Not too far away from the season.

Shaka is putting a lot of trust into Greg Brown.
He is expecting Brown to bring a sense of violence. Not by elbowing someone across the head but the way he attacks.

A lot to ask for a true freshman.
Ramey should be another one who he should be getting to play violent

I just think Shaka believes Brown and his ability to jump over,through or even around someone brings a sense of violent energy.

We will see. Don't see too many players coming into college and playing that way.
 
I feel like we are almost on the same page. Went with Wisconsin(@jwardelt ) +1700, Texas Tech, WVA, and Tenn all at +2500, and Florida +3500,

Man U can make those tenn and UF bets with me if u wanna give away money.

Hell I’ll field all 5. Unless ur wanting to put like a stack a piece I can’t cover that, but I can 100$ or less in each. Wvu and wisky scare me the most but I don’t see em winning it all. FF maybe.
 
Texas fan thinks Texas is better than non Texas fans. Shocker

replace Texas with literally anyone, rinse and repeat.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TechFan88
Man U can make those tenn and UF bets with me if u wanna give away money.

Hell I’ll field all 5. Unless ur wanting to put like a stack a piece I can’t cover that, but I can 100$ or less in each. Wvu and wisky scare me the most but I don’t see em winning it all. FF maybe.
All about setting up future hedge opportunities.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lurkeraspect84
Sure? Idk. Shaka fvcking blows. He probably wastes more talent than Turge. But he had that one miracle year.
Oh, hell yeah Shaka sucks. I was talking more about Maryland fans constantly talking down about their team. I've seen national media mention it before and say its the strangest thing.
 
ADVERTISEMENT