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dukedevilz 2020-21 Preseason Top 50

dukedevilz

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Apr 3, 2002
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Here it is, gents. My wildly inaccurate top 50. I started this two years ago because I thought the turnover among top 50 teams was so high I could barely account for most teams outside of the top 10 or so. I thought this would be a nice way to actually track the teams and have a better feel for the upcoming season. Rosters only include active players that expect to see meaningful minutes. Hence, most walk-ons are excluded, as well as those that are injured or sitting out as transfers. There are a few players that have *** which indicates that their waiver has not yet been approved. Should the waiver be approved, you could probably bump a team up a few spots.

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And just for fun, here's 1-100. I really only evaluated about 75 teams or so. Used a couple of analytical metrics to compile my final few teams in the the top 100.

1. Villanova
2. Gonzaga
3. Baylor
4. Virginia
5. Wisconsin
6. Kansas
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
9. Duke
10. Texas Tech
11. Tennessee
12. Creighton
13. West Virginia
14. Florida State
15. Kentucky
16. Michigan State
17. Arizona State
18. Houston
19. Texas
20. Oregon
21. Rutgers
22. North Carolina
23. Michigan
24. Florida
25. UCLA
26. Ohio State
27. Stanford
28. LSU
29. Indiana
30. Louisville
31. Seton Hall
32. Alabama
33. Richmond
34. Minnesota
35. UConn
36. Oklahoma
37. Georgia Tech
38. Memphis
39. Purdue
40. Northern Iowa
41. Arizona
42. Providence
43. Miami
44. Saint Louis
45. Arkansas
46. Syracuse
47. Dayton
48. Ole Miss
49. BYU
50. San Diego State
51. Oklahoma State
52. Cincinnati
53. USC
54. NC State
55. Marquette
56. Clemson
57. Loyola Chicago
58. Colorado
59. Virginia Tech
60. South Carolina
61. Penn State
62. Western Kentucky
63. Xavier
64. Maryland
65. Boise State
66. UNC Greensboro
67. Auburn
68. SMU
69. Missouri
70. Washington
71. Butler
72. Utah
73. TCU
74. Utah State
75. Texas A&M
76. Iowa State
77. North Texas
78. St.John's
79. UNLV
80. St.Bonaventure
81. Wichita State
82. Notre Dame
83. San Francisco
84. Vermont
85. Rhode Island
86. Belmont
87. Furman
88. DePaul
89. Pittsburgh
90. VCU
91. Colorado State
92. South Dakota State
93. Mississippi State
94. South Florida
95. Saint Mary's
96. Georgia
97. Tulsa
98. Duquense
99. Northwestern
100 Murray State

Big 10 (13):
5. Wisconsin
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
16. Michigan State
21. Rutgers
23. Michigan
26. Ohio State
29. Indiana
34. Minnesota
39. Purdue
61. Penn State
66. Maryland
99. Northwestern

ACC (13):
4. Virginia
9. Duke
14. Florida State
22. North Carolina
30. Louisville
37. Georgia Tech
43. Miami
46. Syracuse
54. NC State
56. Clemson
59. Virginia Tech
82. Notre Dame
89. Pittsburgh

SEC (13):
11. Tennessee
15. Kentucky
24. Florida
28. LSU
32. Alabama
45. Arkansas
48. Ole Miss
60. South Carolina
67. Auburn
69. Missouri
75. Texas A&M
93. Mississippi State
96. Georgia

Big East (10):
1. Villanova
12. Creighton
31. Seton Hall
35. UConn
42. Providence
55. Marquette
63. Xavier
71. Butler
78. St.John's
88. DePaul

Big 12 (9):
3. Baylor
6. Kansas
10. Texas Tech
13. West Virginia
19. Texas
36. Oklahoma
51. Oklahoma State
73. TCU
76. Iowa State

Pac 12 (9):
17. Arizona State
20. Oregon
25. UCLA
27. Stanford
41. Arizona
53. USC
59. Colorado
70. Washington
72. Utah

American (7):
18. Houston
38. Memphis
52. Cincinnati
64. SMU
81. Wichita State
94. South Florida
97. Tulsa

Atlantic 10 (7):
33. Richmond
44. Saint Louis
47. Dayton
80. St.Bonaventure
85. Rhode Island
90. VCU
98. Duquense

Mountain West (5):
50. San Diego State
65. Boise State
74. Utah State
79. UNLV
91. Colorado State

WCC (4):
2. Gonzaga
49. BYU
83. San Francisco
95. Saint Mary's

Missouri Valley (2):
40. Northern Iowa
57. Loyola Chicago

Conference USA (2):
62. Western Kentucky
77. North Texas

Southern Conference (2):
68. UNC Greensboro
87. Furman

Ohio Valley (2):
86. Belmont
100 Murray State

Other (2):
84. Vermont
92. South Dakota State
 
I think Kentucky is deserving of top ten, probably capped at that, but still. Love all of the work you do and hours you put in. Thanks devilz!

They very well could be. Freshmen will have less time to be a cohesive unit this year, so they'll need to learn and adapt sooner than a typical Kentucky team, if they're going to finish in the top 10.
 
Really like this Kansas team. Defensively we should be stout once again. Offensively we should take a step forward, especially with our outside shooting. New faces though so it will take some time.
 
I would put Tech behind WVU and Texas.

They will be inconsistent again this year.

Defense may improve from last year but I don't think they improve on offense
Watching McClung with Chris Beard is interesting. He isn't anything like Moretti.

Moretti was vastly underrated. Will be a very good European player. Just a smart player.

But can Chris Beard turn him into Moretti. I think he came to Lubbock that player because of his Dad and his background in soccer.
 
Really like this Kansas team. Defensively we should be stout once again. Offensively we should take a step forward, especially with our outside shooting. New faces though so it will take some time.

Who do you think starts for KU? And who are 1-2 off the bench? Seems like you guys have a lot of options.
 
They will be inconsistent again this year.

Defense may improve from last year but I don't think they improve on offense
Watching McClung with Chris Beard is interesting. He isn't anything like Moretti.

Moretti was vastly underrated. Will be a very good European player. Just a smart

Texas Tech is bringing in four transfers that averaged double figures. How many of them have you watched?

And by all means, yes, Texas absolutely should be a top 10 team. You have 11 top 100 players. But at the same time, it's hard to have complete trust in Shaka. In five seasons, only once has he had a winning record in league play.
 
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Transfers...
What one did at one school doesn't always translate.
We have been seeing that more and more as transfers are becoming more widespread.

Works both ways though.

There is only one ball on the court...

It's very common for mid-major players that grad transfer to struggle as they move up to a big-time program. However, these transfers are coming from Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, and Wichita State. A step up? Yes, but not a big as leap as say the Sun Belt or the Ohio Valley. And I would agree McClung doesn't fit the bill of a typical Chris Beard player. He'll have to have better shot selection, no question. If anything, I think Tech has good depth and balance.
 
It's very common for mid-major players that grad transfer to struggle as they move up to a big-time program. However, these transfers are coming from Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, and Wichita State. A step up? Yes, but not a big as leap as say the Sun Belt or the Ohio Valley. And I would agree McClung doesn't fit the bill of a typical Chris Beard player. He'll have to have better shot selection, no question. If anything, I think Tech has good depth and balance.

Look at Chris Clarke last year.

Tech could be a good team at times. They still will be inconsistent against the Top 4 in the Big 12 again
There was a big gap between them last year with Baylor and Kansas.
A smaller one with them with Texas and WVU.

Maybe by the end of the year they can close it....
But it will because of Burnett and Shannon IMO.
Not because of transfers.

We will see with McClung. I have knowledgeable basketball people wondering what Beard was doing...
Moretti leaving left them in a bad position.
They brought in a bad fit according to some.
 
Look at Chris Clarke last year.

Tech could be a good team at times. They still will be inconsistent against the Top 4 in the Big 12 again
There was a big gap between them last year with Baylor and Kansas.
A smaller one with them with Texas and WVU.

Maybe by the end of the year they can close it....
But it will because of Burnett and Shannon IMO.
Not because of transfers.

We will see with McClung. I have knowledgeable basketball people wondering what Beard was doing...
Moretti leaving left them in a bad position.
They brought in a bad fit according to some.

Clarke's PER went from 17.6 to 16.7. Not a material variance. And yes, Burnett and Shannon should be the #1 and #2 options. But, with Kyler Edwards, Kevin McCullar, Micah Peavy, and four talented transfers, they should have a very solid core group of players. And FWIW, Tech finished 21st in KenPom last year, while Texas finished 61st.

Where would you rank Texas?
 
Clarke's PER went from 17.6 to 16.7. Not a material variance. And yes, Burnett and Shannon should be the #1 and #2 options. But, with Kyler Edwards, Kevin McCullar, Micah Peavy, and four talented transfers, they should have a very solid core group of players. And FWIW, Tech finished 21st in KenPom last year, while Texas finished 61st.

Where would you rank Texas?

I think numbers are important but you actually have to watch the games

This is the issue trying to rank all the teams.
I can tell you what I think about the Big 12.
Baylor is the obvious #1
#2 most likely will be Kansas. But you could put Texas or WVU there
#3 WVU or Texas


Most people knowledgeable about the Big 12 has Tech #4 or #5 in the conference .
The coaches had them #5

Where Texas should be.
#3 or #4. Coaches had them #4 behind WVU.

Texas doesn't rebound well. At least didn't last year.
WVU is one of the best rebounding teams in college basketball.
Texas did realize this in their second game and fought for the ball more...
But the first game WVU was getting all the balls.

Texas was a bad matchup for Tech last year.
We will be even more this year.

Comes down to perimeter play.

Reason why they need Burnett.
Not McClung. McClung is a soft player. Doesn't play defense.
Burnett on the otherhand. He is long and can make Tech an elite perimeter team sometime again.
 
I'd put some pretty sizeable money that, if both teams stay healthy, Purdue finishes ahead of Minnesota. Not enough credit is being given to the Pitino vs Painter factor IMO.

Of course, that would still put Purdue at 9th in the Big Ten, which just speaks to how stupid deep the conference is.
 
@dukedevilz. Heck of a job, thank you for putting the work in.

Fyi, Nova's Antoine re-injured his shoulder, dont know when he plays-tough break for the kid
 
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Who do you think starts for KU? And who are 1-2 off the bench? Seems like you guys have a lot of options.
We have a plethora of options on the wing all who of which have potential.

Starting:
G: Marcus Garrett
G: Ochai Abaji
G: Christian Braun
G: Tyon Grant-Foster
F: David McCormack

Bryce Thompson could also start. Regardless of who stars between Braun, Foster and Thomspon; they will all play starter minutes. Jalen Wilson (who Self loved last year before the injury) and Enaruna will play a ton. The minutes are there to go around with 4 guards starting.

Garrett, Abaji and McCormack are locked in. The other two spots come down to Braun, Foster and Bryce Thompson IMO. Jalen Wilson and Tristian Enaruna will play a ton off the bench as well. Mitch Lightfoot will back up McCormack. DaJuan Harris is sort of an unknown but will likely be the victim of a numbers game.

Grant-Foster looks like someone who is going to burst onto the season. He honestly could be our leading scorer with McCormack. He is highly skilled and Self raves about him. If he can be consistent with what Self wants he could be a big 12 POY candidate.

I suspect our defense will remain stout and our outside shooting with vastly improve.

With Self coaching and the type of talent he has ( a bunch of 4 star blue collar people who will buy in); this team is vastly being overlooked (which I understand). Then again, we are thought of as a top 10 team. Im telling you though, this is the type of team Self gets the most out of (he usually gets the most out of his teams regardless, probably more than anyone).
 
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I would put Tech behind WVU and Texas.

They will be inconsistent again this year.

Defense may improve from last year but I don't think they improve on offense
Watching McClung with Chris Beard is interesting. He isn't anything like Moretti.

Moretti was vastly underrated. Will be a very good European player. Just a smart player.

But can Chris Beard turn him into Moretti. I think he came to Lubbock that player because of his Dad and his background in soccer.
What a surprise. We have several options on offense this year compared to last season. Moretti was great, but McClung can do more with the ball in his hands. Of course, McClung will have to buy in (I think he has). Please continue doubting Chris Beard.

Kenpom has Tech 6th. 3 man weave has tech 8th. There are several outlets that have us top 15 and almost all ahead of Texas besides the coaches poll.

Matt Mooney was a terrible defender at SDSU and Beard and Adams turned him into an All Conference defender. I have no doubt they’ll get that same effort from McClung or he won’t play. Jamarius Burton has also sounded like he has been a great pickup for us.
 
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What a surprise. We have several options on offense this year compared to last season. Moretti was great, but McClung can do more with the ball in his hands. Of course, McClung will have to buy in (I think he has). Please continue doubting Chris Beard.

Kenpom has Tech 6th. 3 man weave has tech 8th. There are several outlets that have us top 15 and almost all ahead of Texas besides the coaches poll.

Matt Mooney was a terrible defender at SDSU and Beard and Adams turned him into an All Conference defender. I have no doubt they’ll get that same effort from McClung or he won’t play. Jamarius Burton has also sounded like he has been a great pickup for us.



Just like you wouldn't miss Culver last year...

You are the one who pushed this narrative all off season last year.
I found it funny

Mooney and McClung are two different players.
McClung is a volume shooter. Plain and simple.
McClung would have fit at Oklahoma with Kruger much better than Beard.

Not saying Tech won't at some time next year be a Top 10 team.
But it won't be consistently.

As of now it would be difficult to see them finishing higher than 3rd...

Difference is I can see WVU and Texas challenging Baylor and Kansas
But not Tech.

Doesn't mean you don't have the potential to be a Sweet 16/Elite 8 team but...

All 4 of these teams defend better as of right now.
Possibly if Burnett comes in and plays at a high level things can change...But Burnett is the key to you season

Guy is a guard with a 6-10 wingspan.
 
Just like you wouldn't miss Culver last year...

You are the one who pushed this narrative all off season last year.
I found it funny

Mooney and McClung are two different players.
McClung is a volume shooter. Plain and simple.
McClung would have fit at Oklahoma with Kruger much better than Beard.

Not saying Tech won't at some time next year be a Top 10 team.
But it won't be consistently.

As of now it would be difficult to see them finishing higher than 3rd...

Difference is I can see WVU and Texas challenging Baylor and Kansas
But not Tech.

Doesn't mean you don't have the potential to be a Sweet 16/Elite 8 team but...

All 4 of these teams defend better as of right now.
Possibly if Burnett comes in and plays at a high level things can change...But Burnett is the key to you season

Guy is a guard with a 6-10 wingspan.
Lol what? I would never say we would miss Culver that is ridiculous.
Mooney was a volume shooter at SDSU. That’s all he did at SDSU. McClung can be one of our several options this year but he won’t be relied upon to be the guy. We have several options to score this year.

I think we’re better than WVu and Texas. Who is going to shoot from the outside besides McBride (who is very underrated). I think the same about Kansas who is going to score for them. They lost the two best players in the conference. And Texas, well they’re Texas. No doubt y’all are stacked talent wise, as are we, but you still have Shaka.
 
I would definitely put Texas Tech behind WVU. Early reports are the outside shooting has greatly improved from last year and that was WVU's only weakness.
 
We have a plethora of options on the wing all who of which have potential.

Starting:
G: Marcus Garrett
G: Ochai Abaji
G: Christian Braun
G: Tyon Grant-Foster
F: David McCormack

Bryce Thompson could also start. Regardless of who stars between Braun, Foster and Thomspon; they will all play starter minutes. Jalen Wilson (who Self loved last year before the injury) and Enaruna will play a ton. The minutes are there to go around with 4 guards starting.

Garrett, Abaji and McCormack are locked in. The other two spots come down to Braun, Foster and Bryce Thompson IMO. Jalen Wilson and Tristian Enaruna will play a ton off the bench as well. Mitch Lightfoot will back up McCormack. DaJuan Harris is sort of an unknown but will likely be the victim of a numbers game.

Grant-Foster looks like someone who is going to burst onto the season. He honestly could be our leading scorer with McCormack. He is highly skilled and Self raves about him. If he can be consistent with what Self wants he could be a big 12 POY candidate.

I suspect our defense will remain stout and our outside shooting with vastly improve.

With Self coaching and the type of talent he has ( a bunch of 4 star blue collar people who will buy in); this team is vastly being overlooked (which I understand). Then again, we are thought of as a top 10 team. Im telling you though, this is the type of team Self gets the most out of (he usually gets the most out of his teams regardless, probably more than anyone).

I won’t be surprised if Thompson and TGF both come off the bench to start the year. TGF hasn’t been 100% and I hear that Thompson has some things to learn. But I’d bet that both will start eventually.
 
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They have some players...
There is a chance that it clicks.

But my point is that it won't be the entire season.
They could click at some point of the season.

The difference is Texas and WVU knows who they are going into the season.

Better chance they click all year

Plus better chance that they can compete against Baylor
WVU knocked off Baylor to end the year.

Both Texas and WVU from what I saw had a chance to win the Big 12 Tournament last year
Just as long as WVU beat OU.
OU is the team they had issues with...
 
I won’t be surprised if Thompson and TGF both come off the bench to start the year. TGF hasn’t been 100% and I hear that Thompson has some things to learn. But I’d bet that both will start eventually.
Wilson or Enaruna would start then. Regardless all of them are going to play and I expect Wilson, Braun and Enaruna to all make major strides.
 
I think numbers are important but you actually have to watch the games

This is the issue trying to rank all the teams.
I can tell you what I think about the Big 12.
Baylor is the obvious #1
#2 most likely will be Kansas. But you could put Texas or WVU there
#3 WVU or Texas


Most people knowledgeable about the Big 12 has Tech #4 or #5 in the conference .
The coaches had them #5

Where Texas should be.
#3 or #4. Coaches had them #4 behind WVU.

Texas doesn't rebound well. At least didn't last year.
WVU is one of the best rebounding teams in college basketball.
Texas did realize this in their second game and fought for the ball more...
But the first game WVU was getting all the balls.

Texas was a bad matchup for Tech last year.
We will be even more this year.

Comes down to perimeter play.

Reason why they need Burnett.
Not McClung. McClung is a soft player. Doesn't play defense.
Burnett on the otherhand. He is long and can make Tech an elite perimeter team sometime again.

Jon Rothstein is literally the only national pundit I found that placed Texas higher than Texas Tech. Perhaps that is largely based on the perception of the coaches. It seems like you're looking specifically at the Big XII outlook, whereas I'm looking at the national landscape. Texas has all the talent in the world - and based on talent alone, they should be in the top 10. Just hard for me to give them the benefit of the doubt when they underperform year after year. And I find it odd that you say that Texas was a bad matchup for Tech last year. They split the two games - and Tech was losing by 2 points with under a minute left in the game they lost. That's not exactly being overwhelmed.

texas-texastech.png
 
Going to be really I tereting to see how the lack of crowds impacts teams. Our home court advantage has been as good as anyone’s over the last 5 years and we don’t always have the most involved crowd. But, on the road we have had several instances of getting impacted my the crowd that may not be in play this year
 
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We are 64! Only thing I’ll say about the Terps is they should be ranked ahead of Penn State due to Chambers being gone .

Lol MD 64...

I'm probably selling you guys short a little bit. Maybe you deserve to be a little higher since Jairus Hamilton got the waiver, but I still don't see Maryland as a top 50 team. Wiggins, Ayala, and Morsell are your top 3 returning scorers from last season. All 3 of those guys had a player efficiency rating below 15, which has been designated as the average PER among all players. All 3 of those guys had an efg below 50%. That should be concerning. I think anyone in the top 75 could realistically make the tournament, but Maryland has some serious fighting to do to make the tournament.
 
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I'd put some pretty sizeable money that, if both teams stay healthy, Purdue finishes ahead of Minnesota. Not enough credit is being given to the Pitino vs Painter factor IMO.

Of course, that would still put Purdue at 9th in the Big Ten, which just speaks to how stupid deep the conference is.

I'm not overly concerned in who finishes where in the final Big Ten standings. Seems almost trivial when you're looking at the difference between a preseason 9 and 10 seed. @Deathclutch you want in on this bet? I'm also factoring in Eric Hunter missing the first month of the season - as well as Ethan Morton recovering from mono. You guys are more likely to drop a game or two that you shouldn't in the OOC schedule, which would lower your overall body of work.


@dukedevilz. Heck of a job, thank you for putting the work in.

Fyi, Nova's Antoine re-injured his shoulder, dont know when he plays-tough break for the kid

Thanks! I appreciate it. And tough break with Antoine. I remember him well as we recruited him heavily. Hope he's able to recover soon, but it might be in his best interest to redshirt the year.
 
They very well could be. Freshmen will have less time to be a cohesive unit this year, so they'll need to learn and adapt sooner than a typical Kentucky team, if they're going to finish in the top 10.

While that's true, they're also getting more practice before the 1st game or 3 lol. 3 of the guys have been working together all summer. Backcourt is probably top 5 potentially. I don't have a problem with them at 15, but I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people. I like the parts and chemistry thus far.
 
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It's very common for mid-major players that grad transfer to struggle as they move up to a big-time program. However, these transfers are coming from Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, and Wichita State. A step up? Yes, but not a big as leap as say the Sun Belt or the Ohio Valley. And I would agree McClung doesn't fit the bill of a typical Chris Beard player. He'll have to have better shot selection, no question. If anything, I think Tech has good depth and balance.
Pretty good spot for my Runnin’ Rebels. Talking TTU Joel Ntambe, he’s like McClung is a good offense plAyer but terrible on defense. While he was at UNLV anyway
 
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Jon Rothstein is literally the only national pundit I found that placed Texas higher than Texas Tech. Perhaps that is largely based on the perception of the coaches. It seems like you're looking specifically at the Big XII outlook, whereas I'm looking at the national landscape. Texas has all the talent in the world - and based on talent alone, they should be in the top 10. Just hard for me to give them the benefit of the doubt when they underperform year after year. And I find it odd that you say that Texas was a bad matchup for Tech last year. They split the two games - and Tech was losing by 2 points with under a minute left in the game they lost. That's not exactly being overwhelmed.

texas-texastech.png

You will be wrong.
I expect an apology at the end of the year

Should listen to people who pay attention to the Big 12 instead of national guys
National guys are usually wrong because you can't be that knowledgeable about all the conferences and teams.
But you can 10.
 
Pretty good spot for my Runnin’ Rebels. Talking TTU Joel Ntambe, he’s like McClung is a good offense plAyer but terrible on defense. While he was at UNLV anyway

With the amount of transfers it makes things complicated.

Florida for example last year wasn't a great team but people thought that Blackshear coming in from VA Tech were going to make them a Top 10 team.

What one player does for one coach isn't the same as he does for another....
E M Long ended up one of your better players at UNLV.
If you looked at his stats from Texas you expected a bench player

Transfers make things very difficult to rank teams now
 
With the amount of transfers it makes things complicated.

Florida for example last year wasn't a great team but people thought that Blackshear coming in from VA Tech were going to make them a Top 10 team.

What one player does for one coach isn't the same as he does for another....
E M Long ended up one of your better players at UNLV.
If you looked at his stats from Texas you expected a bench player

Transfers make things very difficult to rank teams now

The problem with Blackshear is that he wasn’t all the great in the ACC. Tried to warn folks. He dominated crappy teams and struggled against top teams.
 
Chris Beard is getting set up. Expectations went up. Even last year they started in the Top 15. They weren't a Top 15 team last year.
Just how CBB is.

I expect the same thing to happen. I like Beard.
But I do know there comes a time people start questioning his coaching ability if they keep putting in the Top 10/15 every year and he doesn't end up there
 
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