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Who Wins the National Title?

Who will win the 2023 National Title?

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dukedevilz

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
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The correct answer may very well be "other." But, we don't need an easy out. Which of these current top 10 AP teams would you take? Decided to take Texas out of the poll, and put Baylor in their place, as I figure the Beard turmoil might be hard to overcome.
 
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I totally would've picked Texas had Beard not felony'd himself..

Went HOU, their guard trio has underwhelmed me so far..
(And maybe that's just a me problem)
 
dukedevilz said:
Hard to go against them. They have the best resume so far, IMO. And the metrics favor them too.
Click to expand...
TeamConference12/11/2022 ResultNETPrev NETAvg Opp NET RankAvg Opp NETWLConf. RecordNon-Conference RecordRoad WLNET SOSNET NonConf SOSQuadrant 1Quadrant 2Quadrant 3Quadrant 4
Purdue
Purdue		Big Ten332012010-02-08-02-043335-00-01-04-0
UConn
UConn		Big East119815511-00-011-01-099952-04-00-05-0
Mississippi St.
Mississippi St.		SECW662482009-00-09-01-02082062-00-02-05-0
Virginia
Virginia		ACC991231638-01-07-01-098652-02-00-04-0

No idea why the metrics favor them.

That said. I went with Arizona. I think they have the right combination of talent and experience. And I'm a fan of their coach.
 
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I'm going to guess that Uconn somehow lucks into it. They have so many stretches where they're not good, but when they have halfway decent team the ball seems to bounce their way. Statistically their good team to title ratio has to be about the best there is. They get into the tourney and somehow start sinking threes from 10 feet behind the line.
 
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boilerzz said:
TeamConference12/11/2022 ResultNETPrev NETAvg Opp NET RankAvg Opp NETWLConf. RecordNon-Conference RecordRoad WLNET SOSNET NonConf SOSQuadrant 1Quadrant 2Quadrant 3Quadrant 4
Purdue
Purdue		Big Ten332012010-02-08-02-043335-00-01-04-0
UConn
UConn		Big East119815511-00-011-01-099952-04-00-05-0
Mississippi St.
Mississippi St.		SECW662482009-00-09-01-02082062-00-02-05-0
Virginia
Virginia		ACC991231638-01-07-01-098652-02-00-04-0

No idea why the metrics favor them.

That said. I went with Arizona. I think they have the right combination of talent and experience. And I'm a fan of their coach.
Click to expand...

Purdue's resume is very nice, no question. Though, that NET doesn't match with what I'm seeing. Currently, I see both are 3-0 in Quad 1 games. Both have 4 wins over KenPom top 50 teams.

I'd still give a lean towards UConn. They've won every game by 10+ points. Purdue struggled against Nebraska and Marquette - and they weren't convincing against FSU. UConn also beat Florida (KenPom #55) on the road by 21.
 
dukedevilz said:
Purdue's resume is very nice, no question. Though, that NET doesn't match with what I'm seeing. Currently, I see both are 3-0 in Quad 1 games. Both have 4 wins over KenPom top 50 teams.

I'd still give a lean towards UConn. They've won every game by 10+ points. Purdue struggled against Nebraska and Marquette - and they weren't convincing against FSU. UConn also beat Florida (KenPom #55) on the road by 21.
Click to expand...
I assume you are using Warren Nolan. His calculator doesn't jive with the NCAA's official number. He has Marquette at 31 and Nebraska at 76 and NCAA has Marquette at 30 and Nebraska at 75. So they have Nebraska as Q1 and UConn's win at Florida as quad 2. And I don't think that Florida team is very good. They lost by 29 to a WVU team that Purdue beat by 12 out in Portland. Nebraska looks better to me (double digit win at Creighton).

UCONN has beaten the 5 P5 teams they played by 17 per game. Purdue has played 2 more (inclusive of Gonzaga) and beaten them by 15 per game.

If I were to rank the 5 most impressive wins between the two teams, I'd go:

UCONN 82-67 over KenPom 10 Alabama (N)
Purdue 84-66 over KenPom 11 Gonzaga (N)
Purdue 75-56 over KenPom 13 Duke (N)
Purdue 80-68 over KenPom 23 WVU (N)
Purdue 75-70 over KenPom 31 Marquette (H)

The only game you could maybe slot in there would be UCONN's neutral court win over KenPom 46 Iowa State on a neutral. But they got punked by Iowa and anyone who gets punked by Iowa is automatically disqualified.
 
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boilerzz said:
I assume you are using Warren Nolan. His calculator doesn't jive with the NCAA's official number. He has Marquette at 31 and Nebraska at 76 and NCAA has Marquette at 30 and Nebraska at 75. So they have Nebraska as Q1 and UConn's win at Florida as quad 2. And I don't think that Florida team is very good. They lost by 29 to a WVU team that Purdue beat by 12 out in Portland. Nebraska looks better to me (double digit win at Creighton).

UCONN has beaten the 5 P5 teams they played by 17 per game. Purdue has played 2 more (inclusive of Gonzaga) and beaten them by 15 per game.

If I were to rank the 5 most impressive wins between the two teams, I'd go:

UCONN 82-67 over KenPom 10 Alabama (N)
Purdue 84-66 over KenPom 11 Gonzaga (N)
Purdue 75-56 over KenPom 13 Duke (N)
Purdue 80-68 over KenPom 23 WVU (N)
Purdue 75-70 over KenPom 31 Marquette (H)

The only game you could maybe slot in there would be UCONN's neutral court win over KenPom 46 Iowa State on a neutral. But they got punked by Iowa and anyone who gets punked by Iowa is automatically disqualified.
Click to expand...
UConn's 21 point win @ Florida, as well. #56 KP.
 
For me its Arizona....Head scratcher for sure @ Utah. But they were the only team on Indiana's schedule that I was "scared" of, so to speak. Speed, size, athlete's, shooters, bigs.....IMO right now, best team in CBB.

I like Purdue but I question if two freshman can lead them to a title. Those two dudes playing as well as they have, is exactly why Purdue is currently #1.
 
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A bit too early for this, isnt it? For me, Id never count out teams like UNC and Duke, they know how to turn it on in March.
 
I wouldn’t bet Kansas to win the title just based on the fact that they’re the defending champion, only return like 15% of their tournament rotation, and have no bench at the moment. Just based on the fact that they’re defending champs makes it less than .001% they repeat just based on history alone. But man I would take KU’s 1-4 against almost everyone else’s 1-4 in the country especially come March.
 
Current odds from Bovada (Top 10)
Houston +700
Texas +800
UConn +1000
UK +1400
Baylor +1600
Purdue +1600
Arizona +1800
Duke +1800
Indiana +1800
Tennessee +1800

BetMGM (as of 12/12)
Houston +750
Texas +1100
UConn +1100
UK +1200
Baylor +1200
Gonzaga +1600
Arizona +1600
Purdue +1600
Duke +1800
UNC +2000
UVA +2000
UCLA +2000
 
lurkeraspect84 said:
UConn's had UK's number recently. It would be a great year to get some payback.
Click to expand...
UConn is 4-1 vs. UK all time including 3 in a row with 3 of the wins being in the tourney and 2 in the FF. Kind of odd that the first time they played was so recent, 2006.
 
ExitFlagger said:
5 titles in less than 25 years would be pretty ridiculous. Especially considering they've been mediocre/bad in about half of those years.
Click to expand...

1 tournament win in the past 8 years. Right up there with Texas. They certainly take advantage of their opportunities.


lurkeraspect84 said:
UConn's had UK's number recently. It would be a great year to get some payback.
Click to expand...

Feel the same. They got us in the Finals in 1999 and the Final Four in 2004. Would love to take them down some time.
 
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Laettner did beat UConn at the buzzer in the Regional Finals in 1990. And we beat them the following year in the Sweet 16, as well. But, still, payback is overdue.
 
Think the Zags will be there at the end. They have had some bad loses however, they have also played a monster schedule and could benefit from that.

They have a few players like our LSU transfer Reid who has not played well but has big potential. When they get it all together in March they will be a force and could take the prize imho.
 
Nobody talks about UCLA as a contender, but they should probably be in the conversation. Good coach, good guards, and they've been knocking on the door for a few years.

You'd have to think another title would give them a great case for GOAT.
 
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