****Official B1G Off Season Thread****
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Tarris Reed is really really good
Preeeeeety Preeeeeeeety happy
Preeeeeety Preeeeeeeety happy
A player is overrated if he is not even close to the tier of player he was ranked as at the college level.
A player is underrated if he is not even close to the tier of player he was ranked as at the college level.
Putting too much weight on the NBA draft and/or nitpicking by a few spots is not it. If Chet gets drafted 2nd or 3rd instead of 1st doesn’t make him overrated.
Okay, so what terminology would you like me to use instead of overrated?
A guy that was ranked 6 and is constantly being mocked in the #4 to #7 range that won’t be there on draft day is something, that’s forsure.
We can debate where the lines should be drawn, but the overall point is that the higher (closer to 1, not 150) in the rankings a recruit is, the higher degree of confidence the scouts should have in their ability to make it at the highest level.
For example, the difference in the top ~30 guys in terms of where they fall in the draft versus guys in the next 30 and the next 30 on, is significant. Each level there is less and less guys getting drafted over time.
The last time a consensus #1 recruit fell out of the top 3 in the draft was Nerlens Noel in 2012. Duren, Chet, Paolo, Hardy, and Baldwin will be the top 5.
Pretty much comes down to team preference.
The #6 ranked recruit being drafted 10th doesn't mean he was overrated.
Ayo being ranked 30th in the 2018 class but not getting drafted until after his junior year and at #38 doesn't mean he was overrated.
He is currently getting mocked over Patrick Baldwin, Peyton Watson, AJ Griffin, and Kendall Brown just at the small forward position.
In my opinion, that’s overrated.
I think at minimum 3 of those kids will get drafted above him next year.
You tried to say that since he’s #6 on rivals if he goes anywhere past #6 in the 2022 draft he’s overrated.
No. Bad logic.
What’s your cut off for when it isn’t overrated?
I have picked two players in the top 10 since 2011 that I think are pretty sure bets to not get drafted as high as their rankings.
Houstan and Kennedy Chandler look like the safest bets in 2021.
Agree to disagree, but I also judge the very top top guys on a different scale.
The players that aren’t good enough to go one-and-done face diminishing returns a vast majority of the time when coming back to college. This is due to age being a pretty big factor in drafting strategy.
And while it’ll never be perfect,
Houstan’s comparison to the players in his own class is much closer to a 1:1 analogy.
Good! If we have IU fans rushing to defend a Michigan player talking shit about us unprompted publicly, we’re doing something right. No one ~hated~ John Groce’s teams.
I’d also be surprised if everyone in the Big Ten just loved Hunter.
It’s not black and white and as simple as using nba draft position to justify rankings. Hunter Dickinson was a second team All-American but won’t sniff the first round of the NBA. Based on his college performance he should’ve been a top 5-10 player in the class. Based on the nba draft, 40th may be fair. Neither carry all the weight. The NBA draft isn’t the answer key.
and for the record, I’ve never once said Caleb is or isn’t ranked appropriately. As others have said the difference between 6 and 16 is really indifferent to me. Diabate is ranked 11th, 13th, and 22nd on three sites and it doesn’t make a difference to me.
This thread takes some crazy turns😳
Is the NBA only drafting from one graduating class now?
Sounds like Holtmann might end up adding a 6th player in the 2022 class. Already has 4 top 50 commitments and another in the top 150-200ish. I think I’d prefer adding a few from the portal instead of a 6th HS guy.
Is the NBA only drafting from one graduating class now?
Sounds like Holtmann might end up adding a 6th player in the 2022 class. Already has 4 top 50 commitments and another in the top 150-200ish. I think I’d prefer adding a few from the portal instead of a 6th HS guy.
I think it’s pretty relevant with Top 10 prospects.
In the last 7 drafts, 61 of 70 players in the composite Top 10 have been drafted after their freshman year. That’s ~87% that are one in done’s. Whereas the 5 years prior to that it’s pretty much a 50/50 they go pro, so it’s been trending upwards.
Sure certain players have a play style that isn’t as valued at the highest level, as a scout you have to make that type of assessment and balance that of with how well you think they will perform in college.
I haven’t looked into it, but I can almost guarantee you that players ranked 16 are drafted at a significantly lower rate than guys ranked 6. Especially as one and done’s, which truthfully is how it should be.
But I don’t care. Do you think it bothers me that Dickinson won’t be a first round pick? Whether Houstan goes 6th, 8th, 12th means very little to me. Heck, I’d prefer he return for a second year.
Not at all, nor should it.
Guys like Dickinson, Liddell, and Kofi fall in that sweet spot where they stay a couple extra years in college and they really help elevate their teams.
Houstan most likely won’t be coming back based on the trends of top 10 players regardless of what his draft stock is. Only 13% of them come back to college/don’t get drafted at all.
International players aren’t considered in composite top 150, so they would be meaningless in these type of comparisons to draft stock vs placement on that list.
They also make 8 selections in the top 10 in the time span I covered. So ~11%, and on average international players potentially push players 1 spot down in draft that high. Is that what you would consider significant?
1 spot is insignificant which is what we’ve been trying to tell you. You think someone ranked 6th being drafted 7th means he was overrated. We think it’s silly to look at it that way.
So would it be safe to say the best players to compare him to would be other players in 2022 that are also one-and-dones?
No because it’s not black and white. Using the NBA draft position as an answer key is erroneous at best.
I said falling from 6 to 10ish is pretty significant. I also was comparing it to where he is being mocked now which is 4th. Good try though!
And I’ve made it very clear that I’m only comparing it to other players in the composite Top 150.
Maybe next time I will slow down so you can keep up with the semantics of the argument.
Give me the updated terminology on what I should call a kid that is being 4th on mocks that will be closer to 10 if not farther.
Overrated is what I’m going with, until I can get an answer.
Using draft position for questioning recruiting rank is stupid. Recruiting sites rank them for how they expect them to perform in college, not how they fit in the NBA.
That’s not usually how they rank the players at the very top.
87% of top 10 players have left after one year to go to the NBA, so no they aren’t just basing it on how they will do at the college level.
It's dumber than listing height and weight every time you mention a player. Recruiting rankings are the opinions of a slew of people over several sites. Teams drafting players with different position needs, organization needs/beliefs. It's not as simple as recruit the best player.
It's frightening that that makes sense to you.
It’s frightening that you think they’d rank these players off of what production the players will put up in their one year of college.
But to each their own.
"Your player is overrated because he's just a back end lottery pick" is one of the more tedious arguments I've seen on this board.
You said since he’s 6th if he gets drafted 7th he was overrated. That’s silly.
When the player is #4 on mock drafts right now and will be lucky to be a top 10 draft pick, is that not overrated?
Maybe you can help Hail out and get me the correct terminology to use instead. TIA
See above.
You literally said if he doesn’t get drafted 6th he’s overrated because composite has him 6th.
“When the 6th best player according to composite isn’t drafted 6th, is it going to be Juwan’s fault for him dropping or will you finally admit he was overrated?”
Izzo would have him back for a 2nd or 3rd year, amirite?
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