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****Official B1G Off Season Thread****

Old B1G threads get deleted, do we keep everything as is?


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B-Westy’s B1G 2021-2022 Predictions:

1.) Purdue - Post depth (prob best tandem in the country), 1st Team All-B1G guard, 3 point shooters, & two new freshman likely to immediately make contributions to the 4 spot. Experience with a nice blend of youth.

2.) Michigan - Favorite for BTPOY returning, Brooks is solid, great transfer additions, and great freshman class. I’m leaning on experience & bias with the Purdue over Michigan pick. Still going to be a damn good team. Could easily win the league.

3.) OSU - No Washington hurts them for sure. But Holtmann still likely to get the most out of this group. Wheeler can slide into Washington’s spot. Liddell will be another vying for 1st team honors.

4.) Maryland - obviously no Morsell & Wiggins hurts. But still should be a top 4 type of team with Ayala/Russell. Good transfer additions as well. Need production from the C spot.

5.) MSU - Izzo factor. Good freshman class. Expect Christie to contribute early & their transfer PG to fill in much smoother than Watts. Still a little lean in the front court but a normal offseason of Izzo work should get this team back to respectability.

6.) Illinois - a lot gone from this team. Should probably be lower but I like their Frazier & Curbelo. Front court is a question mark but I’m told Kofi still may come back??? Lol

7.) Indiana - they’ve made some improvements to their roster and I don’t think a lot of us know what to expect from Woody in year 1. But again, a lot of guys returning from a losing team. Shooting will once again be a question mark. TJD the 3rd team All American will once again lead the conference in “AND-1!”’s & flexes after made baskets.

8.) Rutgers - not even sure who is coming back yet but they could end up higher if Harper Jr. returns. Sucks they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal this year. They had a lot of really nice talent & Pikell was building something fun.

9.) Wisconsin - I’m not sure what to make of the Badgers. Davidson returning for a 6th year. They did get rid of a ton of soft players in the front court so I think that could be a net positive for these guys. Johnathan Davis will be a damn good player in the Big Ten.

10.) Iowa - Everyone seemed to jump the Fran ship. Garza, Weiskamp, Fredrick, Nunge all gone. Going to be tough to see what JBo has in store for his last run. Who is Iowa’s C now?


You can interchange any of these last four:

11.) Penn State - Micah Shrewsberry had some players return but a ton leave when he was announced as head coach. Going to be a tough first year for the Big Ten’s perineal doormat. Need to show some energy in this first year to gain some positive momentum.

12.) Northwestern - Chris Collins sucks and is a man child.

13.) Nebraska - a lot of players left Nebraska this year again. But did get a commitment from 5 star Bryce McGowens. Should be another tough year in Lincoln I’d imagine though.

14.) Minnesota - lost a ton. Not even sure who the starting 5 will be and not even we’ll recognize any of the names. Tough hand that’s been dealt to first year coach Ben Johnson.

Feel free to bookmark & bring back whenever the season starts. No shame in seeing how I did and receiving criticism. Can’t wait for the season to start boys. Let’s gooo.

FWIW on the experience things we will be starting Hunter Dickinson, Caleb Houstan, and three seniors.
 
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B-Westy’s B1G 2021-2022 Predictions:

1.) Purdue - Post depth (prob best tandem in the country), 1st Team All-B1G guard, 3 point shooters, & two new freshman likely to immediately make contributions to the 4 spot. Experience with a nice blend of youth.

2.) Michigan - Favorite for BTPOY returning, Brooks is solid, great transfer additions, and great freshman class. I’m leaning on experience & bias with the Purdue over Michigan pick. Still going to be a damn good team. Could easily win the league.

3.) OSU - No Washington hurts them for sure. But Holtmann still likely to get the most out of this group. Wheeler can slide into Washington’s spot. Liddell will be another vying for 1st team honors.

4.) Maryland - obviously no Morsell & Wiggins hurts. But still should be a top 4 type of team with Ayala/Russell. Good transfer additions as well. Need production from the C spot.

5.) MSU - Izzo factor. Good freshman class. Expect Christie to contribute early & their transfer PG to fill in much smoother than Watts. Still a little lean in the front court but a normal offseason of Izzo work should get this team back to respectability.

6.) Illinois - a lot gone from this team. Should probably be lower but I like their Frazier & Curbelo. Front court is a question mark but I’m told Kofi still may come back??? Lol

7.) Indiana - they’ve made some improvements to their roster and I don’t think a lot of us know what to expect from Woody in year 1. But again, a lot of guys returning from a losing team. Shooting will once again be a question mark. TJD the 3rd team All American will once again lead the conference in “AND-1!”’s & flexes after made baskets.

8.) Rutgers - not even sure who is coming back yet but they could end up higher if Harper Jr. returns. Sucks they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal this year. They had a lot of really nice talent & Pikell was building something fun.

9.) Wisconsin - I’m not sure what to make of the Badgers. Davidson returning for a 6th year. They did get rid of a ton of soft players in the front court so I think that could be a net positive for these guys. Johnathan Davis will be a damn good player in the Big Ten.

10.) Iowa - Everyone seemed to jump the Fran ship. Garza, Weiskamp, Fredrick, Nunge all gone. Going to be tough to see what JBo has in store for his last run. Who is Iowa’s C now?


You can interchange any of these last four:

11.) Penn State - Micah Shrewsberry had some players return but a ton leave when he was announced as head coach. Going to be a tough first year for the Big Ten’s perineal doormat. Need to show some energy in this first year to gain some positive momentum.

12.) Northwestern - Chris Collins sucks and is a man child.

13.) Nebraska - a lot of players left Nebraska this year again. But did get a commitment from 5 star Bryce McGowens. Should be another tough year in Lincoln I’d imagine though.

14.) Minnesota - lost a ton. Not even sure who the starting 5 will be and not even we’ll recognize any of the names. Tough hand that’s been dealt to first year coach Ben Johnson.

Feel free to bookmark & bring back whenever the season starts. No shame in seeing how I did and receiving criticism. Can’t wait for the season to start boys. Let’s gooo.

Wheeler will be the starter at PG IMO and Washington’s spot will be a mix of Branham, Johnson and Ahrens. I assume the staff will experiment with some different combos that will include Sotos and Towns ( who is reportedly healthy ) at the 2
 
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I really have no idea what to do with IU. On paper they are certainly talented enough to be in tier 3, but Woodson’s coaching ability is completely unknown. I would have them in tier 4 or 5 if Archie was still the coach and Tier 3 if Crean were the coach.
Crean was awful. They'd be in tier 5 w/ the sodomites if he was still there.

I think there are two sure things in UM/PeeU. Beyond that is a crap shoot at best. Lot of teams lost quite a bit of talent.
 
I mean that’s a little biased.

Parker Stewart (who you left out) has more made 3pt through 2 seasons than Sasha does through 3 seasons. Career 37% shooter from 3, but shot 40% from 3 in the ACC.

Kopp is a career 36% shooter from 3, and shot 40% a year ago. He will just be a catch and shoot player at IU, so I fully expect him to be closer to 40% than 32%.

Bates obviously is known as a shooter as you stated. I see no reason he can’t at least put up Al Durham numbers from 3.

I would heavily bet on RP and Lander shooting better than 26% and 27% from 3 respectively.
Forgot Stewart was a midyear transfer. He should help but I still think you lose a fair amount more than you gain. Hard to tell with Kopp as he has 2 seasons at 32% and one at 39.6%. I'd like to think Purdue will get the Sophomore Eric Hunter (36%) rather than the Junior Eric Hunter (27%) but I'm not counting on it.
 
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I mean that’s a little biased.

Parker Stewart (who you left out) has more made 3pt through 2 seasons than Sasha does through 3 seasons. Career 37% shooter from 3, but shot 40% from 3 in the ACC.

Kopp is a career 36% shooter from 3, and shot 40% a year ago. He will just be a catch and shoot player at IU, so I fully expect him to be closer to 40% than 32%.

Bates obviously is known as a shooter as you stated. I see no reason he can’t at least put up Al Durham numbers from 3.

I would heavily bet on RP and Lander shooting better than 26% and 27% from 3 respectively.
Can Tamar hit from a 38% clip as a freshman? Of course but I’d guess more in the 30-35% range. Cline who was clearly regarded as a sniper coming in shot 38.5% as a freshman in limited minutes/as a specialist. I’d be surprised if Bates shot it at a Durham-esque level next year.
 
Can Tamar hit from a 38% clip as a freshman? Of course but I’d guess more in the 30-35% range. Cline who was clearly regarded as a sniper coming in shot 38.5% as a freshman in limited minutes/as a specialist. I’d be surprised if Bates shot it at a Durham-esque level next year.
And that was when the 3pt line was around a foot and a half closer to the basket.
 
Crean was awful. They'd be in tier 5 w/ the sodomites if he was still there.

I think there are two sure things in UM/PeeU. Beyond that is a crap shoot at best. Lot of teams lost quite a bit of talent.
He did win the league twice though. He was really good offensively, just couldn’t coach defense to save his life.
 
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I thought I read on here that he was 100% not coming back to college. What a development.
Yeah, crazy! No way he comes back to college. That's delusional.



Exhibit A:
In what world is kofi coming back, he wanted to leave last year and that center transfer said kofi is expected to go.
In a world where people understand basketball and money. He’s not projected to be drafted, isn’t being guaranteed a contract, and he’ll have a good opportunity to play on another good team, be a preseason contender for NPOY, and make good money doing it. He’s no guarantee, but most expect him going back barring a guaranteed contract in the nba.

----

Exhibit B:
He’s going start selling gear on the players trunk soon. The delusion from Illinois fans and insiders is something, kofi has said he was gone after this year since last year yet they still hold out hope.
I think a lot of Kofi coming back hinges on the NIL. If he can make money for entire year at the college level, be a NPOY frontrunner, and boost his draft stock to a late first round pick next year. Whether or not Underwood can make the sell is the question.

A decision hasn’t been made yet.

Ayo was also in this exact same boat last year, and made the decision you claim is too far out there.
1) he literally said the same thing last year.

2) nobody knows delusion quite like you.
-----
Exhibit C

Losing your entire staff is only one of the reasons you won’t be top 15 even with Kofi back (he isn’t coming back).
----
Exhibit D

Lol you are delusional. Kofi wants people to think he’s gone, because he’s going pro.

You were the one who came up with the dumb*ss bet, you can come up with the parameters.
-----

Yet this is reasonable

hunter hit threes in high school and has always been a good free throw shooter, he'll be canning threes here soon

RollLaugh
 
Can Tamar hit from a 38% clip as a freshman? Of course but I’d guess more in the 30-35% range. Cline who was clearly regarded as a sniper coming in shot 38.5% as a freshman in limited minutes/as a specialist. I’d be surprised if Bates shot it at a Durham-esque level next year.
As you said, Cline had limited minutes, so it’s hard to get a flow. Parker Stewart shot 40% as a freshman in the ACC. I would guess Bates is between 35%-40%.
 
Can Tamar hit from a 38% clip as a freshman? Of course but I’d guess more in the 30-35% range. Cline who was clearly regarded as a sniper coming in shot 38.5% as a freshman in limited minutes/as a specialist. I’d be surprised if Bates shot it at a Durham-esque level next year.
Yep, among freshmen who averaged 2 three point shots per game last year in the Big Ten, only one shot 38%. And he was redshirt freshman Brandon Newman.

That list:
Brandon Newman 37.9%
Adam Miller 34.0%
Jamal Mashburn 27.6%
Jaden Ivey 25.8% (yikes)

The previous year:
CJ Fredrick 46.1% (a unicorn comparatively)
Isaiah Thompson 36.0%
Donta Scott 31.6%
Franz Wagner 31.1%
Boo Buie 28.2%
Rocket Watts 28.1%
Kevin Cross 27.6%
Tre Williams 27.4%

Fredrick had 2 things going for him that year. 1) Garza was demanding a lot of attention and 2), Iowa doesn't play defense so he didn't lose his legs like most frosh do.

Prior to that, the 3P line was 20'9". The move to 22'1 3/4" has been hard for freshmen to adjust to.
 
B-Westy’s B1G 2021-2022 Predictions:

1.) Purdue - Post depth (prob best tandem in the country), 1st Team All-B1G guard, 3 point shooters, & two new freshman likely to immediately make contributions to the 4 spot. Experience with a nice blend of youth.

2.) Michigan - Favorite for BTPOY returning, Brooks is solid, great transfer additions, and great freshman class. I’m leaning on experience & bias with the Purdue over Michigan pick. Still going to be a damn good team. Could easily win the league.

3.) OSU - No Washington hurts them for sure. But Holtmann still likely to get the most out of this group. Wheeler can slide into Washington’s spot. Liddell will be another vying for 1st team honors.

4.) Maryland - obviously no Morsell & Wiggins hurts. But still should be a top 4 type of team with Ayala/Russell. Good transfer additions as well. Need production from the C spot.

5.) MSU - Izzo factor. Good freshman class. Expect Christie to contribute early & their transfer PG to fill in much smoother than Watts. Still a little lean in the front court but a normal offseason of Izzo work should get this team back to respectability.

6.) Illinois - a lot gone from this team. Should probably be lower but I like their Frazier & Curbelo. Front court is a question mark but I’m told Kofi still may come back??? Lol

7.) Indiana - they’ve made some improvements to their roster and I don’t think a lot of us know what to expect from Woody in year 1. But again, a lot of guys returning from a losing team. Shooting will once again be a question mark. TJD the 3rd team All American will once again lead the conference in “AND-1!”’s & flexes after made baskets.

8.) Rutgers - not even sure who is coming back yet but they could end up higher if Harper Jr. returns. Sucks they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal this year. They had a lot of really nice talent & Pikell was building something fun.

9.) Wisconsin - I’m not sure what to make of the Badgers. Davidson returning for a 6th year. They did get rid of a ton of soft players in the front court so I think that could be a net positive for these guys. Johnathan Davis will be a damn good player in the Big Ten.

10.) Iowa - Everyone seemed to jump the Fran ship. Garza, Weiskamp, Fredrick, Nunge all gone. Going to be tough to see what JBo has in store for his last run. Who is Iowa’s C now?


You can interchange any of these last four:

11.) Penn State - Micah Shrewsberry had some players return but a ton leave when he was announced as head coach. Going to be a tough first year for the Big Ten’s perineal doormat. Need to show some energy in this first year to gain some positive momentum.

12.) Northwestern - Chris Collins sucks and is a man child.

13.) Nebraska - a lot of players left Nebraska this year again. But did get a commitment from 5 star Bryce McGowens. Should be another tough year in Lincoln I’d imagine though.

14.) Minnesota - lost a ton. Not even sure who the starting 5 will be and not even we’ll recognize any of the names. Tough hand that’s been dealt to first year coach Ben Johnson.

Feel free to bookmark & bring back whenever the season starts. No shame in seeing how I did and receiving criticism. Can’t wait for the season to start boys. Let’s gooo.
My list is almost the exact same, I’d switch Michigan and Purdue and I’d switch Nebraska and Penn State.

Illinois will be higher when our roster gets additional pieces but until then 6 is a pretty safe bet.
 
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Okay? How much has the line effected 3pt shooting overall?
For freshmen? A lot. See my list above. The year before the line moved, these were the freshmen on that list:

Joe Weiskamp 42.4%
Aaron Wiggins 41.3%
Gabe Kalschuer 41.0%
Eric Ayala 40.6%
Iggy Brazdeikis 39.2%
Luther Muhammad 37.5%
Rasir Bolton 36.1%
Myles Dread 35.6%
Ayo Dosunmu 35.2%
Miller Kopp 31.9%
Rob Phinisee 31.0%
Duane Washington 30.6%
Ron Harper 27.8%
Romeo Langford 27.2%
Jalen Smith 26.8%
Montez Mathis 23.9%

In addition to those percentages being much higher in aggregate, it appears coaches have mostly reined in their freshmen from shooting from deep.
 
For freshmen? A lot. See my list above. The year before the line moved, these were the freshmen on that list:

Joe Weiskamp 42.4%
Aaron Wiggins 41.3%
Gabe Kalschuer 41.0%
Eric Ayala 40.6%
Iggy Brazdeikis 39.2%
Luther Muhammad 37.5%
Rasir Bolton 36.1%
Myles Dread 35.6%
Ayo Dosunmu 35.2%
Miller Kopp 31.9%
Rob Phinisee 31.0%
Duane Washington 30.6%
Ron Harper 27.8%
Romeo Langford 27.2%
Jalen Smith 26.8%
Montez Mathis 23.9%

In addition to those percentages being much higher in aggregate, it appears coaches have mostly reined in their freshmen from shooting from deep.
Is that year an outlier or is that how it normally was before the line move?
 
Is that year an outlier or is that how it normally was before the line move?
Here is the aggregate 3P% by year. It's dropped regardless of class and I'd be stunned if the freshman impact wasn't larger than the impact as a whole.

In case the image doesn't work:


screen-shot-2020-09-07-at-11345-am.webp
 
I still think you will struggle to shoot and open up the middle for TJD. You lost guys that shot 42.4% (Franklin), 38% (Durham) and 34.2% (Hunter) from three. You replaced them with guys who shot 32% (Kopp), 32.1% (Johnson) and 20% (Durr).

I know Tamar Bates is known as a good shooter but it's hard to rely heavily on a freshman from three.

And this is after you finished 236th last year in 3P%.
That didn't exactly hurt last year.
 
Is that year an outlier or is that how it normally was before the line move?
I'd say the data is a bit inconclusive on the matter but it's clearly impactful. The average# of freshmen who shot 38% or better with the old line was 3.6 freshmen vs 0.5 freshmen since the line changed.

Freshman shooting 38% or better by year:

2020-21 0
2019-20 1
2018-19 5
2017-18 2
2016-17 6
2015-16 1
2014-15 6
2013-14 2
2012-13 3
 
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Here is the aggregate 3P% by year. It's dropped regardless of class and I'd be stunned if the freshman impact wasn't larger than the impact as a whole.

In case the image doesn't work:


screen-shot-2020-09-07-at-11345-am.webp
Thanks for the info. I guess we will find out soon. Regardless, I think Stewart and Kopp will be 39%+ shooters this year.
 
B-Westy’s B1G 2021-2022 Predictions:

1.) Purdue - Post depth (prob best tandem in the country), 1st Team All-B1G guard, 3 point shooters, & two new freshman likely to immediately make contributions to the 4 spot. Experience with a nice blend of youth.

2.) Michigan - Favorite for BTPOY returning, Brooks is solid, great transfer additions, and great freshman class. I’m leaning on experience & bias with the Purdue over Michigan pick. Still going to be a damn good team. Could easily win the league.

3.) OSU - No Washington hurts them for sure. But Holtmann still likely to get the most out of this group. Wheeler can slide into Washington’s spot. Liddell will be another vying for 1st team honors.

4.) Maryland - obviously no Morsell & Wiggins hurts. But still should be a top 4 type of team with Ayala/Russell. Good transfer additions as well. Need production from the C spot.

5.) MSU - Izzo factor. Good freshman class. Expect Christie to contribute early & their transfer PG to fill in much smoother than Watts. Still a little lean in the front court but a normal offseason of Izzo work should get this team back to respectability.

6.) Illinois - a lot gone from this team. Should probably be lower but I like their Frazier & Curbelo. Front court is a question mark but I’m told Kofi still may come back??? Lol

7.) Indiana - they’ve made some improvements to their roster and I don’t think a lot of us know what to expect from Woody in year 1. But again, a lot of guys returning from a losing team. Shooting will once again be a question mark. TJD the 3rd team All American will once again lead the conference in “AND-1!”’s & flexes after made baskets.

8.) Rutgers - not even sure who is coming back yet but they could end up higher if Harper Jr. returns. Sucks they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal this year. They had a lot of really nice talent & Pikell was building something fun.

9.) Wisconsin - I’m not sure what to make of the Badgers. Davidson returning for a 6th year. They did get rid of a ton of soft players in the front court so I think that could be a net positive for these guys. Johnathan Davis will be a damn good player in the Big Ten.

10.) Iowa - Everyone seemed to jump the Fran ship. Garza, Weiskamp, Fredrick, Nunge all gone. Going to be tough to see what JBo has in store for his last run. Who is Iowa’s C now?


You can interchange any of these last four:

11.) Penn State - Micah Shrewsberry had some players return but a ton leave when he was announced as head coach. Going to be a tough first year for the Big Ten’s perineal doormat. Need to show some energy in this first year to gain some positive momentum.

12.) Northwestern - Chris Collins sucks and is a man child.

13.) Nebraska - a lot of players left Nebraska this year again. But did get a commitment from 5 star Bryce McGowens. Should be another tough year in Lincoln I’d imagine though.

14.) Minnesota - lost a ton. Not even sure who the starting 5 will be and not even we’ll recognize any of the names. Tough hand that’s been dealt to first year coach Ben Johnson.

Feel free to bookmark & bring back whenever the season starts. No shame in seeing how I did and receiving criticism. Can’t wait for the season to start boys. Let’s gooo.
Really good list. I’d put Michigan at #1 but I’m admittedly biased as well. One thing I’ll mention though is it seems that a lot of people have the perception of Michigan being inexperienced this year due to the highly ranked freshman class. We’ll be starting a senior at PG (Jones), a 5th year senior at SG (Brooks), a senior at PF (Johns) and a sophomore POY candidate in Dickinson. Have two top 100 sophomores as well (Jackson and Williams) who have a year in the program and may contribute.
 
I think UM and Purdue are in the top tier and there is a bit of a drop off to #3.


This- If Ohio State had Washington or MD had Wiggins back would have been a different story- Purdue & Michigan Co Favorites this upcoming season...
 
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This- If Ohio State had Washington or MD had Wiggins back would have been a different story- Purdue & Michigan Co Favorites this upcoming season...
Nah, there is a bigger gap between Michigan and Purdue than Purdue and Ohio State.

Only one favorite, for now.
 
Nah, there is a bigger gap between Michigan and Purdue than Purdue and Ohio State.

Only one favorite, for now.
Eh, Purdue was pretty young and brings back basically everyone, and I’m a fan of their freshmen, no 5 stars but definitely contributors. I think they’re right there.
 
Eh, Purdue was pretty young and brings back basically everyone, and I’m a fan of their freshmen, no 5 stars but definitely contributors. I think they’re right there.
Agree to disagree.

Purdue needs a significant step up from one of Hunter or Newman to be in that tier. Need to have a consistent shot creator outside of Ivey within their backcourt.

If that happens sure they can be right there, but in no way is that a lock to happen.
 
FWIW it sounds like Kobe Bufkin is the biggest surprise for us so far.

"much better than we thought he'd be ... and we thought he'd be pretty good,"
 
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