More chalk than usual?

[ExitFlagger]

When filling out brackets, I want to pick a lot of crazy upsets in the first weekend, but it seems hard to justify it this year.

Obviously, a chalky bracket is usually a bad idea because this thing goes sideways every year, but I think this year could be different. There seems to be a big drop-off after the top 30 or so teams. And a bigger drop-off than usual to the little schools. They were all poached by the bigger schools and lost the notable players that they could have ridden to an upset or two. And as a result, a lot of the top schools are more experienced than usual.

 

[Random UK Fan]

The amount of parity this year is ridiculous. I only filled one out because there are so many outcomes that aren’t necessarily unlikely.

 

[I am stupid]

I had trouble with that. Picked mostly the highest ranked team then went back and screwed it all up just because.

 

[HoosierstuckinIowa]

I had trouble with that. Picked mostly the highest ranked team then went back and screwed it all up just because.

I like yore style.

 

[WarEagle2727]

This is going to be one of the wildest years IMO. No team has proven to me that they are going to win it all.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

This is going to be one of the wildest years IMO. No team has proven to me that they are going to win it all.

Except Iowa...

 

[boilerzz]

I think there will be less chalk. I wouldn't surprise me if we only have one 1 seed and have someone outside the top 6 seeds in the Final Four.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I think there will be less chalk. I wouldn't surprise me if we only have one 1 seed and have someone outside the top 6 seeds in the Final Four.

I'm talking mostly about the first round. I just don't see a bunch of double digit seeds moving on.

 

[AuHoosier420]

The amount of parity this year is ridiculous. I only filled one out because there are so many outcomes that aren’t necessarily unlikely.

I think the parity is there for the top 25 to 30 schools. I rarely agree with the OP but their is a distinct drop off after that

 

[Original_Irish]

Idk, wouldn’t be surprised if a 1 seed lost in the second round this year. I mostly just pick upsets where I think that the team doesn’t have a good shot at making the sweet 16. So pick upsets early and then go chalk.

 

[JVDBeak'em]

I'm talking mostly about the first round. I just don't see a bunch of double digit seeds moving on.

Why? This is a down year for CBB. Would think that would lead to more upsets?

I find all of these games very interesting:
#14 Colgate over Wisconsin
#13 South Dakota State over Providence
#13 Vermont over Arkansas
#13 Chattanooga over Illinois
#12 Indiana over Saint Mary's
#11 VT over Texas
#11 Michigan over Colorado State
#10 Loyola over Ohio State
#10 SF over Murray State
#10 Davidson over Michigan State

Since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985, an average of 6.17 double digits seeds win in the first round.
2.143 make the sweet sixteen.
0.486 makes the elite eight.
.0143 final four. 1 10 seed, 4 11 seeds.
0 have made the championship game.
That's 9 total wins per year for a double digit seed.

11 seeds are the sleepers. They've gone to more final fours (4) than any seed 6 and higher, with exception to 8's (5).

 

[JVDBeak'em]

Idk, wouldn’t be surprised if a 1 seed lost in the second round this year. I mostly just pick upsets where I think that the team doesn’t have a good shot at making the sweet 16. So pick upsets early and then go chalk.

3.429 1 seeds made the sweet sixteen on average. So that means a 1 seed loses first weekend slightly more than every other year.
Exactly half of the 3's and 4's lose during the first weekend.

 

[dukedevilz]

11 seeds are the sleepers. They've gone to more final fours (4) than any seed 6 and higher, with exception to 8's (5).

And the 6 seeds are all kind of underwhelming this year, to be honest. Alabama and Texas have both lost three straight. LSU has lost their coach - and 4 of their last 7. Colorado State has been playing well, but who knows how they'll do against P6 schools, especially against a school with a lot more size, like Michigan.

I'd almost expect at least two 11 seeds to win in the opening round this year. Colorado State and Texas are the most vulnerable. But, Alabama and LSU won't have a walk in the park, either.

 

[JVDBeak'em]

And the 6 seeds are all kind of underwhelming this year, to be honest. Alabama and Texas have both lost three straight. LSU has lost their coach - and 4 of their last 7. Colorado State has been playing well, but who knows how they'll do against P6 schools, especially against a school with a lot more size, like Michigan.

I'd almost expect at least two 11 seeds to win in the opening round this year. Colorado State and Texas are the most vulnerable. But, Alabama and LSU won't have a walk in the park, either.

The weird thing is it's usually not who you would think. It's the guys that shouldn't have even made it that all of a sudden go on a 3 game run.

Another kind of weird thing is 9's win in the first round more than 8's (72 vs 68), yet 8's have twice as many sweet sixteens and elite eights.

 

[Kevin Bryan]

When filling out brackets, I want to pick a lot of crazy upsets in the first weekend, but it seems hard to justify it this year.

Obviously, a chalky bracket is usually a bad idea because this thing goes sideways every year, but I think this year could be different. There seems to be a big drop-off after the top 30 or so teams. And a bigger drop-off than usual to the little schools. They were all poached by the bigger schools and lost the notable players that they could have ridden to an upset or two. And as a result, a lot of the top schools are more experienced than usual.

I had the same problem. Then again, I think that every year and the upsets always happen like clockwork.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Why? This is a down year for CBB. Would think that would lead to more upsets?

I find all of these games very interesting:
#14 Colgate over Wisconsin
#13 South Dakota State over Providence
#13 Vermont over Arkansas
#13 Chattanooga over Illinois
#12 Indiana over Saint Mary's
#11 VT over Texas
#11 Michigan over Colorado State
#10 Loyola over Ohio State
#10 SF over Murray State
#10 Davidson over Michigan State

Since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985, an average of 6.17 double digits seeds win in the first round.
2.143 make the sweet sixteen.
0.486 makes the elite eight.
.0143 final four. 1 10 seed, 4 11 seeds.
0 have made the championship game.
That's 9 total wins per year for a double digit seed.

11 seeds are the sleepers. They've gone to more final fours (4) than any seed 6 and higher, with exception to 8's (5).

I think it's a down year in terms of lacking teams that are truly loaded, but I think there are more quality teams in the field than usual.

I see some of the 10s and 11s winning, but I don't consider any of those big upsets. Some probably aren't upsets at all.

South Dakota St is a popular pick, and probably a good one, because they're an elite shooting team and Providence's defensive efficiency hasn't been very good at all the last few months. I could see a 90-88 type of game.

I picked Chattanooga and Vermont in a bracket or two, but I'm not exactly confident either will happen.

Wisconsin's interesting because they stumbled down the stretch and Davis was injured recently and played terribly in his last game. Not sure if Colgate is the team to get it done though.

 

[Original_Irish]

I picked Vermont over Arkansas as my big upset. Will be interesting to see how many double digit seeds win this week.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Why? This is a down year for CBB. Would think that would lead to more upsets?

I find all of these games very interesting:
#14 Colgate over Wisconsin
#13 South Dakota State over Providence
#13 Vermont over Arkansas
#13 Chattanooga over Illinois
#12 Indiana over Saint Mary's
#11 VT over Texas
#11 Michigan over Colorado State
#10 Loyola over Ohio State
#10 SF over Murray State
#10 Davidson over Michigan State

Since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985, an average of 6.17 double digits seeds win in the first round.
2.143 make the sweet sixteen.
0.486 makes the elite eight.
.0143 final four. 1 10 seed, 4 11 seeds.
0 have made the championship game.
That's 9 total wins per year for a double digit seed.

11 seeds are the sleepers. They've gone to more final fours (4) than any seed 6 and higher, with exception to 8's (5).

Also worth noting, in 34 of the last 36 tournaments, a double digit seed has at least made the Sweet 16.



So it's not too late for some of you to change your brackets............

 

[Kevin Bryan]

Also worth noting, in 34 of the last 36 tournaments, a double digit seed has at least made the Sweet 16.



So it's not too late for some of you to change your brackets............

But picking which one(s) is the hard part. 😆 I'll go with Vermont, Virginia Tech, or Miami.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Up year. So much talent returning.

 

[IUfanBorden]

I'm talking mostly about the first round. I just don't see a bunch of double digit seeds moving on.

IDK....there are some pretty good double-digit seeds-----via the portal. Chatanooga is one. They will give Illinois a headache, man.. I would have said Michigan, but with Devante, I dunno....If Rutgers can get my ND,they are gonna be a problem...Indiana is quite capable of beating St. Mary's...

TBH, I could see 2 or more 11 seeds advancing: Iowa St/LSU, VaTech/Texas...Rutgers/Bama...

I like UAB over Houston....

Really Exit, I just don't tihnk there is a ton of separation...

All four 10/7 games IMO are damn near coin flips...

NM State could cause issues for Uconn----but then again, I think UConn is a 5 seed that coould end up in New Orleans...

Gonna be a crazy ass tourney. MOF, I think it will be.

 

[Villian07]

Im taking richmond to beat iowa. U heard it here first if it happens lol

 

[FaithPlusOne]

I had some early round upsets but I was pretty chalky after. The years that I generally expect there to be a lot of parity have often yielded the more boring tournaments and the years I expect it to be more straight forward are the ones with a crazy Davidson or George Mason type run.

Based on the entire year, I’d expect it to be crazy, but I guess we’ll see.

 

[khael-hawk]

And we start the tourney with Michigan rubbing the chalk off.

 

[JVDBeak'em]

And we start the tourney with Michigan rubbing the chalk off.

 

[JVDBeak'em]

There's an average of 8.2 "upsets" in the first round each year.
Day 1 there was 6.

6.2 if you don't include 8/9.
Day 1 there was 4.

 

[imajericho]

Why? This is a down year for CBB. Would think that would lead to more upsets?

I find all of these games very interesting:
#14 Colgate over Wisconsin
#13 South Dakota State over Providence
#13 Vermont over Arkansas
#13 Chattanooga over Illinois
#12 Indiana over Saint Mary's
#11 VT over Texas
#11 Michigan over Colorado State
#10 Loyola over Ohio State
#10 SF over Murray State
#10 Davidson over Michigan State

Since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985, an average of 6.17 double digits seeds win in the first round.
2.143 make the sweet sixteen.
0.486 makes the elite eight.
.0143 final four. 1 10 seed, 4 11 seeds.
0 have made the championship game.
That's 9 total wins per year for a double digit seed.

11 seeds are the sleepers. They've gone to more final fours (4) than any seed 6 and higher, with exception to 8's (5).

It's pretty impressive that you picked 10 upsets and only 1 was right. When a bunch of upsets did happen.

 

[UNC71-00]

There's an average of 8.2 "upsets" in the first round each year.
Day 1 there was 6.

6.2 if you don't include 8/9.
Day 1 there was 4.

what?

 

[JVDBeak'em]

It's pretty impressive that you picked 10 upsets and only 1 was right. When a bunch of upsets did happen.

#madness

 

[JVDBeak'em]

Since 1985 an average of 6.2 double digit seeds win in the first round. This year there was 7.
2.1 make the sweet sixteen. This year there is 4.

0.486 make the Elite Eight. We'll see what happens. At least one will between ISU/Miami.

Fun fact for those interested in the Michigan/Nova, ISU/Miami game. When an 11 seed is in the Sweet Sixteen they win that game 42% of the time. Pretty decent odds for an 11 seed.

8 seeds that make the sweet sixteen win that game 61.5% of the time....

 

[JVDBeak'em]

Another kind of weird thing is 9's win in the first round more than 8's (72 vs 68), yet 8's have twice as many sweet sixteens and elite eights.

This holds up again this year. 3/4 9 seeds won their game, yet it's the 8 seed that advances.