Lots of experts picking Michigan State

[SpartanJD]

Not sure why people call Izzo the king of March. Should be Roy's label.

Lot of experts picking against UNC as well though. I don't mind. None of it really matters.

True, but has Roy ever overachieved? He's a great coach I'm not denying that, and a very good tourney coach.

Izzo has been to a Final Four as a 5 seed twice, and a 7 seed once. So I think Mr March came from Izzo having very high metrics in terms of doing better than seed projections and how many wins he has a lower seed over his opponents.

 

[coryfly]

Not sure why people call Izzo the king of March. Should be Roy's label.

Lot of experts picking against UNC as well though. I don't mind. None of it really matters.

True, but has Roy ever overachieved? He's a great coach I'm not denying that, and a very good tourney coach.

Izzo has been to a Final Four as a 5 seed twice, and a 7 seed once. So I think Mr March came from Izzo having very high metrics in terms of doing better than seed projections and how many wins he has a lower seed over his opponents.

No doubt. Recently I just think Roy has excelled in the NCAAT and seldom gets the credit he deserves. Izzo is fantastic. No argument there at all. I was just pointing out how one is perceived at excelling in March versus the other. Wasn’t meant to be a shot.

 

[CDNCBBFan]

My guess also would have been that Izzo exceeded expectations (seeding) more than any other coach.

Someone posted this Tournament Binder in another thread. It's a pretty amazing resource. Page 29 shows coaching wins compared to the number of wins expected based on seeding (from 2003-2017). Roy leads with +12.97 wins. Izzo is at +10.58. Granted this time period doesn't cover the 2000 Michigan State championship year. Nevertheless, pretty interesting.

 

[SpartanJD]

My guess also would have been that Izzo exceeded expectations (seeding) more than any other coach.

Someone posted this Tournament Binder in another thread. It's a pretty amazing resource. Page 29 shows coaching wins compared to the number of wins expected based on seeding (from 2003-2017). Roy leads with +12.97 wins. Izzo is at +10.58. Granted this time period doesn't cover the 2000 Michigan State championship year. Nevertheless, pretty interesting.

View embedded media

Yea, MSU went to a FF in 1999, 2000, 2001, and E8 as like a 7 seed in 2002. So 2003, Roy's first year at UNC is the starting point, I get that. But those previous 4 years were big ones for Izzo.

And Izzo's last two really good teams...Gary Harris sophomore year of 2014 they lost in E8 to Uconn and then the Mid Tenn upset in 2016 with Valentine as a senior. So this is a big year for Izzo to make another FF cuz he fizzled out the last two times he had teams that could win it all.

 

[JayhawkWriter]

^ Providence did beat Nova and Xavier, but all soild points there. It's certainly not a given that KU, MSU, and Duke all make it to the second weekend. All of these teams are susceptible to losing to good/decent teams in the 2nd round.

Man I knew it would be a Big East team that could quote that as well and I looked at the records like three times and still didn't see Providence beating them both. What a crazy year this has been in basketball.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Man I knew it would be a Big East team that could quote that as well and I looked at the records like three times and still didn't see Providence beating them both. What a crazy year this has been in basketball.

No kidding. There's not even close to a clear frontrunner to win this tournament.

 

[coryfly]

Not sure why people call Izzo the king of March. Should be Roy's label.

Lot of experts picking against UNC as well though. I don't mind. None of it really matters.

Just curious, but wouldn't K be the current "King of March"?

I wouldn’t think so. Not over Roy.

 

[Quavarius]

Just curious, but wouldn't K be the current "King of March"?

Of course K is the King of March!

 

[lerario]

I actually think this is the region that could totally blow up. Take out dukes run in 2015, and these have been 3 of the more underachieving teams in the tournament over the past 7 or 8 years. All three have ugly upsets in that span, and MSU generally seems to fizzle when expectations are the highest. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if N.C. State beats Kansas or Rhode Island beats duke. MSU is 2-4 against tournament teams. At least one of the three could easily be bounced in the first weekend.

 

[Quavarius]

I actually think this is the region that could totally blow up. Take out dukes run in 2015, and these have been 3 of the more underachieving teams in the tournament over the past 7 or 8 years. All three have ugly upsets in that span, and MSU generally seems to fizzle when expectations are the highest. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if N.C. State beats Kansas or Rhode Island beats duke. MSU is 2-4 against tournament teams. At least one of the three could easily be bounced in the first weekend.

Duke certainly has warts, but also has more titles since 2010 than teams that usually make deep runs.

 

[dukedevilz]

I actually think this is the region that could totally blow up. Take out dukes run in 2015, and these have been 3 of the more underachieving teams in the tournament over the past 7 or 8 years.

So what Region has multiple teams that consistently perform well? If we're judging it by Final Four appearances from the past 7-8 years, the Midwest is actually doing pretty good. At least better than any other region

Final Fours this decade by Region (past 8 years)-

South
Kentucky (4)
Total: 4

West
UNC (2)
Michigan (1)
Gonzaga (1)
Ohio State (1)
Total: 5

East
Butler (2)
Villanova (1)
West Virginia (1)
Florida (1)
Total: 5

Midwest
Duke (2)
Michigan State (2)
Syracuse (2)
Oklahoma (1)
Kansas (1)
Total: 8

 

[Quavarius]

So what Region has multiple teams that consistently perform well? If we're judging it by Final Four appearances from the past 7-8 years, the Midwest is actually doing pretty good. At least better than any other region

Final Fours this decade by Region (past 8 years)-

South
Kentucky (4)
Total: 4

West
UNC (2)
Michigan (1)
Gonzaga (1)
Ohio State (1)
Total: 5

East
Butler (2)
Villanova (1)
West Virginia (1)
Florida (1)
Total: 5

Midwest
Duke (2)
Michigan State (2)
Syracuse (2)
Oklahoma (1)
Kansas (1)
Total: 8

Oh

 

[Quavarius]

And I think (even if you took K out of the Midwest) the region has three coaches with 3 championships too. With K it's four and 8 championships.

 

[Mgkcbb]

Well nevermind theyll have to win 2 games against tournament teams to even get to thr Sweet 16

But - Trusting a team that is 2-4 against tournament teams (3 of those losses by double digits, the other vs Duke without Bagley) to beat(if projections hold out)Duke and Kansas on a neutral court in the same weekend is taking huge leap of faith that borders on willful ignorance imo. I am not high at all on MSU or their draw.

Duke already beat them without Bagley. Michigan dump trucked them 2 times - once in East Lansing and another in NYC. Ohio State dump trucked them. So thats my rationale.

I likea Duke vs Kansas showdown for a final four there myself.

 

[Boilermaker03]

BPI gives MSU a 5.1% chance to win the title. According to BPI best odds to win it all is Virginia with 22.6% with Villanova just trailing at 21.9%.

 

[dukedevilz]

Well nevermind theyll have to win 2 games against tournament teams to even get to thr Sweet 16

But - Trusting a team that is 2-4 against tournament teams (3 of those losses by double digits, the other vs Duke without Bagley) to beat(if projections hold out)Duke and Kansas on a neutral court in the same weekend is taking huge leap of faith that borders on willful ignorance imo. I am not high at all on MSU or their draw.

Duke already beat them without Bagley. Michigan dump trucked them 2 times - once in East Lansing and another in NYC. Ohio State dump trucked them. So thats my rationale.

I likea Duke vs Kansas showdown for a final four there myself.

What is it about Michigan State that you don't like? I agree that beating both Duke and Kansas in the same weekend would be a tall order, but it's not as though they're not talented enough to do that. They don't have many quality wins, true, but they don't have any bad losses. I mean, all 4 of their losses were against teams in the top 15 of KenPom. Literally every team in college basketball, outside of MSU, has lost to a team outside of the top 15.

 

[northeastspartan]

What is it about Michigan State that you don't like? I agree that beating both Duke and Kansas in the same weekend would be a tall order, but it's not as though they're not talented enough to do that. They don't have many quality wins, true, but they don't have any bad losses. I mean, all 4 of their losses were against teams in the top 15 of KenPom. Literally every team in college basketball, outside of MSU, has lost to a team outside of the top 15.

He's had a hard-on for hating MSU all year

 

[SpartanJD]

So what Region has multiple teams that consistently perform well? If we're judging it by Final Four appearances from the past 7-8 years, the Midwest is actually doing pretty good. At least better than any other region

Final Fours this decade by Region (past 8 years)-

South
Kentucky (4)
Total: 4

West
UNC (2)
Michigan (1)
Gonzaga (1)
Ohio State (1)
Total: 5

East
Butler (2)
Villanova (1)
West Virginia (1)
Florida (1)
Total: 5

Midwest
Duke (2)
Michigan State (2)
Syracuse (2)
Oklahoma (1)
Kansas (1)
Total: 8

Yah but if you eliminate 2015 when MSU and Duke were in the FF...

I get it though with MSU. Last two times we had a hyped team that could win it all, lost in 2014 in E8 to Uconn and lost to MTSU in 2016.

Not getting to a FF with this team would suck, but MSU has the hardest S16 and E8 draw if chalk holds.

 

[Mgkcbb]

He's had a hard-on for hating MSU all year

This was back in middle December when hey were 1-1 vs tournament teams and way before they were exposed:

1. Villanova
2. Michigan State
3. Duke
4. UNC
5. Purdue
6. West Virginia
7. Virginia
8. Xavier
9. Wichita State
10. Gonzaga
11. Kansas
12. Miami
13. Texas AnM
14. Seton Hall
15. Arizona
16. Florida State
17. Cinci
18. Notre Dame
19. Kentucky
20. Florida
21. Texas Tech
22. TCU
23. Arizona State
24. Texas
25. Louisville

It was only after they proceeded to go 1-3 vs tournament teams the rest of the way with all 3 losses by double digits did my mind change.

 

[Turinturumbar]

I'm not one who thinks Penn will really challenge KU. There was some chatter that Penn plays really solid perimeter defense - which could create problems for a shooting team like Kansas. In reality, they've just played a lot of teams that don't shoot very well. Only played 3 teams that are in the top 50 of 3-point field goal percentage. Those 3 teams shot 48% from 3 against Penn... and yes, there will still be challenges in the round of 32 and the Sweet 16. But you'd be playing teams that are probably the equivalent of Texas and TCU. My point was that Kansas only has to beat one juggernaut to make the FInal Four. Michigan State/Duke will likely have to win two of those games...

KU probably will be playing NC State on Saturday. They’ve beaten 3 top 4 seeds. They’re inconsistent but when they bring it they’ve proven they can beat anybody. And teams like that usually bring it in big tourney games. I fully expect us to get challenged by them.

 

[ThePhog08]

I got Arizona State tappin that spartan azz

 

[MileHighSpartan]

I got Arizona State tappin that spartan azz

Phew

 

[ThePhog08]

Phew

 

[MGO1668]

The experts coming in with their hot takes. Tournament is obviously wide open. You can argue MSU and they certainly have the players and coaching to pull it off, but there are like 6 other teams you could say the same thing about. I may be wrong but I don’t think Izzo has ever actually beaten K in the tournament in his career and they’re most likely going to meet. Not saying MSU has zero chance but history hasn’t been on their side against Duke.

 

[Mgkcbb]

Cant hate you for the bold prediction just because it was wrong.

 

[RR30]

Phew

Never bet on Pac 12 teams. Pretty sure that's a rule somewhere.

 

[MileHighSpartan]

The experts coming in with their hot takes. Tournament is obviously wide open. You can argue MSU and they certainly have the players and coaching to pull it off, but there are like 6 other teams you could say the same thing about. I may be wrong but I don’t think Izzo has ever actually beaten K in the tournament in his career and they’re most likely going to meet. Not saying MSU has zero chance but history hasn’t been on their side against Duke.

Izzo actually does have a win against K in the tournament. 2005 Final 4 run, beat Duke and UK in back to back games.

But I agree with everything in your post. I don't think MSU is some clear favorite, just one of a number of teams who have a chance.

 

[USMC Cat]

Just curious, but wouldn't K be the current "King of March"?

you can't be the king of March when you flame out in the first or second round as a top-4 seed every other season.

 

[ThePhog08]

I just don't think MSU has great guards. They really weren't blowing out anyone at the end. They're still relatively young. I'm not buying it.

 

[Quavarius]

Well nevermind theyll have to win 2 games against tournament teams to even get to thr Sweet 16

But - Trusting a team that is 2-4 against tournament teams (3 of those losses by double digits, the other vs Duke without Bagley) to beat(if projections hold out)Duke and Kansas on a neutral court in the same weekend is taking huge leap of faith that borders on willful ignorance imo. I am not high at all on MSU or their draw.

Duke already beat them without Bagley. Michigan dump trucked them 2 times - once in East Lansing and another in NYC. Ohio State dump trucked them. So thats my rationale.

I likea Duke vs Kansas showdown for a final four there myself.

 

[Quavarius]

It looks like the lack of victories against tournament teams came back to haunt MSU.

THIS with a lot of people not thinking Syracuse IS a tournament team.

 

[RR30]

It looks like the lack of victories against tournament teams came back to haunt MSU.

THIS with a lot of people not thinking Syracuse IS a tournament team.

Guard play wins in March. Their guards were terrible. And they played like they had never seen a zone before.

 

[MGC_07]

Guard play wins in March. Their guards were terrible. And they played like they had never seen a zone before.

You nailed it. We have 1 good guard and hats it. Everyone else is bad. And Cash is good, but nothing amazing.

The zone thing is something I don’t get. We destroy zone every year, but this year we couldn’t do anything.

 

[RR30]

You nailed it. We have 1 good guard and hats it. Everyone else is bad. And Cash is good, but nothing amazing.

The zone thing is something I don’t get. We destroy zone every year, but this year we couldn’t do anything.

Honestly your roster buildup wasn't that good. Bridges is best as a stretch 4. But with Ward and Jaren Jackson he played on the perimeter more than he should have. Knox is similar for Kentucky, though I think Knox is a bit more consistent from mid range.