Lots of experts picking Michigan State

[Quavarius]

to reach the Final Four and/or win it all.

This team has only beaten two teams currently in the NCAA Tournament--UNC and Purdue.

Are experts just sticking to their preseason picks and ignoring their resume?

Usually, Izzo gets to the Final Four when no one picks him. They tend to not get there when folks think they will as 2014 & 2016 are recent examples.

I just don't know what to do with this MSU team. They're not alone, either.

 

[JimboBBN]

I have Duke beating them. K seems to have Izzo's number

 

[Quavarius]

I have Duke beating them. K seems to have Izzo's number

Yeah he does, but Duke is also unreliable this season and I'm sure MSU will be looking for revenge from earlier this season. I have no idea who will win in another Duke/MSU matchup this season.

 

[JimboBBN]

Yeah he does, but Duke is also unreliable this season and I'm sure MSU will be looking for revenge from earlier this season. I have no idea who will win in another Duke/MSU matchup this season.

Won't complain if they do match up. Would be one hell of a sweet sixteen game. If you had asked me earlier this year, I would have told you these were the two best teams in the country. I guess I'm at the point where I can't take Izzo over K. Not to mention the winner of this game will probably have to play Kansas. Rough draw

 

[dukedevilz]

I thought it was interesting how Nantz/Raftery/Hill were talking about the Midwest being the toughest region. Which I suppose has some truth to it, but I really don't see anyone past the KU-Duke-Michigan State making a legitimate run at the Final Four. If I'm playing statistics, I would probably wager in favor of KU as their path to the Elite 8 looks fairly manageable. They would only have to beat one FF favorite, instead of two. Auburn, Clemson, and TCU are pretty average 4-6 seeds, IMO. If one of the top seeds slips up in the early rounds, the path will be that much easier. Hopefully we'll see the power teams in Omaha, though, because that would certainly make for some entertaining games.

MSU has the tools to win the whole thing. They lead the nation in rebounding margin, blocked shots, and 2-point field goal percentage defense. They're 5th in the country in 3-point field goal percentage - and they're also in the top 10 in the KenPom offensive/defensive efficiency metrics. They have looked fairly pedestrian at times, but I wouldn't dismiss their 2-4 record against tournament teams. They've simply had an unusually light schedule, which gave them very few opportunities for quality wins.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

By all means, I hope everyone picks MSU to reach the Final Four. They can have the expectations from the national media.

 

[Quavarius]

I thought it was interesting how Nantz/Raftery/Hill were talking about the Midwest being the toughest region. Which I suppose has some truth to it, but I really don't see anyone past the KU-Duke-Michigan State making a legitimate run at the Final Four. If I'm playing statistics, I would probably wager in favor of KU as their path to the Elite 8 looks fairly manageable. They would only have to beat one FF favorite, instead of two. Auburn, Clemson, and TCU are pretty average 4-6 seeds, IMO. If one of the top seeds slips up in the early rounds, the path will be that much easier. Hopefully we'll see the power teams in Omaha, though, because that would certainly make for some entertaining games.

MSU has the tools to win the whole thing. They lead the nation in rebounding margin, blocked shots, and 2-point field goal percentage defense. They're 5th in the country in 3-point field goal percentage - and they're also in the top 10 in the KenPom offensive/defensive efficiency metrics. They have looked fairly pedestrian at times, but I wouldn't dismiss their 2-4 record against tournament teams. They've simply had an unusually light schedule, which gave them very few opportunities for quality wins.

Which makes me trusts them a lot less. Duke also has better KenPom metrics and is rated higher in KenPom than MSU, but since they haven't beaten tournament quality teams it makes me trust them less. I can't assume they will start beating them now. A tough schedule was always used to justify those 20-12 MSU teams getting to the Final Four. Now we have a MSU teams with a guady record (29-4) with no meat on the bones.

They're an interesting team IMO. Again, they're not alone in that regard.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

This guy on local sports talk radio where I live was wondering out loud yesterday morning how Duke would even be able to hang with Michigan State. Apparently he was unaware Duke already beat MSU this season and did so without Bagley.

The most annoying part of this time of year are all the "experts" that pop out of the woodwork after they saw one pre-tournament bracket analysis special on TV Sunday night. I'd like to think I'm not a college basketball snob, but I really can't stand hot takes from someone who only started caring about college basketball during the middle of last week.

 

[northeastspartan]

I definitely don't like the media love and hype...Izzo and this program thrive on being the underdog. That being said, people picking MSU aren't exactly crazy or just throwing out hot takes. This team was the preseason favorite to win it all, has a HOF coach, and has healthy talent and depth everywhere. The lack of quality wins is mostly due to lack of opportunities, not because we suck.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

people picking MSU aren't exactly crazy or just throwing out hot takes

Don't get me wrong, I think MSU is certainly capable of winning it all and beating Duke handily. The "hot takes" comment was more of a generalized complaint about all the faux experts on TV/radio since the middle of last week.

 

[denniden]

This guy on local sports talk radio where I live was wondering out loud yesterday morning how Duke would even be able to hang with Michigan State. Apparently he was unaware Duke already beat MSU this season and did so without Bagley.

The most annoying part of this time of year are all the "experts" that pop out of the woodwork after they saw one pre-tournament bracket analysis special on TV Sunday night. I'd like to think I'm not a college basketball snob, but I really can't stand hot takes from someone who only started caring about college basketball during the middle of last week.

I hear ya on the experts coming out of nowhere. You have guys who concentrate on football for all but three weeks a year and now they know what’s going on in hoops? Michigan St certainly could beat Duke, but Duke has Trae Young or a really tough Rhode Island team if they get past Iona.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

You have guys who concentrate on football for all but three weeks a year and now they know what’s going on in hoops?

 

[RR30]

Michigan State doesn't have the guards to make a run imo. I'd argue Duke's are very meh too but Allen has a ring and they have two of the top 3 bigs in the country.

 

[hawkeye bb n fb fan]

Sorry if already posted, but 1) Coach K owns Coach Izzo. 2) Duke beat Michigan State on a neutral floor early in the season when Michigan State returned almost it's whole team and Duke had almost no guys with college experience except Grayson Allen. 3) Duke didn't have Bagley for the majority of that game due to an eye injury and 4) they didn't even play zone so Michigan State has no experience playing against it. If Duke was the better team then with all those things I just pointed out, I would pick Duke to win the rematch

 

[Quavarius]

I definitely don't like the media love and hype...Izzo and this program thrive on being the underdog. That being said, people picking MSU aren't exactly crazy or just throwing out hot takes. This team was the preseason favorite to win it all, has a HOF coach, and has healthy talent and depth everywhere. The lack of quality wins is mostly due to lack of opportunities, not because we suck.

I never said you suck, yeah, maybe it was due to lack of opportunity. Now, MSU will be given the opportunity to beat NCAA Tournament teams. There is nothing to suggest that they will beat 4 or 6 of them is all I'm saying, yet the experts tend to disagree. Of course they could; its just no evidence to support they will.

 

[Quavarius]

Sorry if already posted, but 1) Coach K owns Coach Izzo. 2) Duke beat Michigan State on a neutral floor early in the season when Michigan State returned almost it's whole team and Duke had almost no guys with college experience except Grayson Allen. 3) Duke didn't have Bagley for the majority of that game due to an eye injury and 4) they didn't even play zone so Michigan State has no experience playing against it. If Duke was the better team then with all those things I just pointed out, I would pick Duke to win the rematch

Correction: Duke player zone against Michigan State in that game

 

[hawkeye bb n fb fan]

Correction: Duke player zone against Michigan State in that game

Thought I heard they didn't. Thanks for clarifying

 

[toonces11]

If...and thats a big if, we make it to the Duke/MSU winner, I'd much rather play Duke. Not b/c we have some advantage, or any for that matter....but b/c it would be a bigger matchup and we tend to play up in those games. No disrespect to MSU who has a very fine program----but getting to see Duke v Kansas in the tourney is a big deal.

 

[MileHighSpartan]

If MSU can play like they did for the first half of the season, they can win it all. If they continue playing like they have for most of the 2nd half of the season, it will suck.

 

[SpartanJD]

I thought it was interesting how Nantz/Raftery/Hill were talking about the Midwest being the toughest region. Which I suppose has some truth to it, but I really don't see anyone past the KU-Duke-Michigan State making a legitimate run at the Final Four. If I'm playing statistics, I would probably wager in favor of KU as their path to the Elite 8 looks fairly manageable. They would only have to beat one FF favorite, instead of two. Auburn, Clemson, and TCU are pretty average 4-6 seeds, IMO. If one of the top seeds slips up in the early rounds, the path will be that much easier. Hopefully we'll see the power teams in Omaha, though, because that would certainly make for some entertaining games.

MSU has the tools to win the whole thing. They lead the nation in rebounding margin, blocked shots, and 2-point field goal percentage defense. They're 5th in the country in 3-point field goal percentage - and they're also in the top 10 in the KenPom offensive/defensive efficiency metrics. They have looked fairly pedestrian at times, but I wouldn't dismiss their 2-4 record against tournament teams. They've simply had an unusually light schedule, which gave them very few opportunities for quality wins.

So a decent amount of former players and people close to the program said when Bridges came back, it was always about winning in March. MSU came out strong to start the season...playing a very high level game vs Duke where Allen was just unreal to open the season. Then spanking UNC and a healthy ND team.

MSU kind of coasted a bit on conference play and was a bit lazy at times. People forget, but the team starts 4 sophomores and a frosh. Still young. I also think the off the court stuff mentally got to the team a bit, but only losing 4 games as a P5 team, even with a light conference load, is pretty good. MSU just wasn't winning pretty enough for people. Rutgers took us to OT. NW got us down 27. MSU won both, but the team wasn't focusing for a full 40 minutes.

I tend to believe that the tourney will open things up a bit from the style of B1G conference play (we've seen it all the time with MSU getting the transition game going again once the tourney starts) and MSU will look really good.

This is the team and the year to beat Duke and slay that dragon. Bridges came back for this. I am kind of happy Duke is in our path because it will be that much sweeter if we win. Duke seems to not really be gelling as a team lately and Duval has seemed to struggle at times, but he owned Winston in the first matchup.

If we play again, I hope we pound it inside to JJ and Ward and go right at Bagley and Carter.

 

[JayhawkWriter]

heres whats crazy about the midwest bracket.....the 11 seed has two of the biggest wins in the tourney (only team with wins over 2 #1 seeds)......and the 9 seed has knocked off two favorites from the other side (Arizona and UNC)....oh and beat the 2 seed in thier own bracket. Either of those two teams could go on a run.....and we haven't even mentioned trigger Trae trying to score a hundred each game to will his OU team to wins. I still like KU to meet the winner of DUKE/MSU.....but its not a gurantee for any of those three schools to be that far. gonna be a fun tourney

 

[dukedevilz]

^ Providence did beat Nova and Xavier, but all soild points there. It's certainly not a given that KU, MSU, and Duke all make it to the second weekend. All of these teams are susceptible to losing to good/decent teams in the 2nd round.

 

[denniden]

If MSU can play like they did for the first half of the season, they can win it all. If they continue playing like they have for most of the 2nd half of the season, it will suck.

Pretty sure you can use the same line of thinking with Duke.....within the same game.

I think it’s great Duke, MSU, Kansas are in the same bracket. 3/4 of the champions classic.

 

[kdavid45]

Won't complain if they do match up. Would be one hell of a sweet sixteen game. If you had asked me earlier this year, I would have told you these were the two best teams in the country. I guess I'm at the point where I can't take Izzo over K. Not to mention the winner of this game will probably have to play Kansas. Rough draw

Yep. A chance for MSU to exorcise a few demons. Get the Duke monkey off their back and payback for Kansas bouncing MSU last year.

 

[denniden]

So a decent amount of former players and people close to the program said when Bridges came back, it was always about winning in March. MSU came out strong to start the season...playing a very high level game vs Duke where Allen was just unreal to open the season. Then spanking UNC and a healthy ND team.

MSU kind of coasted a bit on conference play and was a bit lazy at times. People forget, but the team starts 4 sophomores and a frosh. Still young. I also think the off the court stuff mentally got to the team a bit, but only losing 4 games as a P5 team, even with a light conference load, is pretty good. MSU just wasn't winning pretty enough for people. Rutgers took us to OT. NW got us down 27. MSU won both, but the team wasn't focusing for a full 40 minutes.

I tend to believe that the tourney will open things up a bit from the style of B1G conference play (we've seen it all the time with MSU getting the transition game going again once the tourney starts) and MSU will look really good.

This is the team and the year to beat Duke and slay that dragon. Bridges came back for this. I am kind of happy Duke is in our path because it will be that much sweeter if we win. Duke seems to not really be gelling as a team lately and Duval has seemed to struggle at times, but he owned Winston in the first matchup.

If we play again, I hope we pound it inside to JJ and Ward and go right at Bagley and Carter.

Duke is exclusively a zone team now. Not sure how they pound it inside via traditional dumping it in and letting a guy go one one. The zone by design will discourage that. They would be able to get to spots in the middle of the zone and have chances to face up more though.

 

[dukedevilz]

I compiled the numbers for the FF Picks of the 27 "Experts" for ESPN.

South
Virginia: 15/27 (55.56%)
Arizona: 11/27 (40.74)
Kentucky: 1/27 (3.70%)

West
Gonzaga: 12/27 (44.44%)
Michigan: 6/27 (22.22%)
UNC: 5/27 (18.52%)
Xavier: 4/27 (14.81%)

East
Villanova: 21/27 (77.78%)
Purdue: 4/27 (14.81%)
West Virginia: 2/27 (7.41%)

Midwest
Michigan State: 19/27 (70.37%)
Duke: 7/27 (25.93%)
Kansas: 1/27 (3.70%)

Crazy how Kansas is getting no love. Clemson/Auburn are the most beatable 4/5 seeds, IMO. No easy games, of course. But Virginia, Xavier, and Villanova will all have better competition in the Sweet 16, IMO.

 

[Quavarius]

I compiled the numbers for the FF Picks of the 27 "Experts" for ESPN.

South
Virginia: 15/27 (55.56%)
Arizona: 11/27 (40.74)
Kentucky: 1/27 (3.70%)

West
Gonzaga: 12/27 (44.44%)
Michigan: 6/27 (22.22%)
UNC: 5/27 (18.52%)
Xavier: 4/27 (14.81%)

East
Villanova: 21/27 (77.78%)
Purdue: 4/27 (14.81%)
West Virginia: 2/27 (7.41%)

Midwest
Michigan State: 19/27 (70.37%)
Duke: 7/27 (25.93%)
Kansas: 1/27 (3.70%)

Crazy how Kansas is getting no love. Clemson/Auburn are the most beatable 4/5 seeds, IMO. No easy games, of course. But Virginia, Xavier, and Villanova will all have better competition in the Sweet 16, IMO.

Thanks

 

[CDNCBBFan]

I compiled the numbers for the FF Picks of the 27 "Experts" for ESPN.

South
Virginia: 15/27 (55.56%)
Arizona: 11/27 (40.74)
Kentucky: 1/27 (3.70%)

West
Gonzaga: 12/27 (44.44%)
Michigan: 6/27 (22.22%)
UNC: 5/27 (18.52%)
Xavier: 4/27 (14.81%)

East
Villanova: 21/27 (77.78%)
Purdue: 4/27 (14.81%)
West Virginia: 2/27 (7.41%)

Midwest
Michigan State: 19/27 (70.37%)
Duke: 7/27 (25.93%)
Kansas: 1/27 (3.70%)

Crazy how Kansas is getting no love. Clemson/Auburn are the most beatable 4/5 seeds, IMO. No easy games, of course. But Virginia, Xavier, and Villanova will all have better competition in the Sweet 16, IMO.

Agree with you.

The "experts" on ESPN have varying degrees of knowledge on the game, but none of them are experts in predicting the outcomes of sporting events, despite what they would have you believe. So, just like so much of the public, the experts get caught up in the story-lines that the media is shoving down our throats.

And what are the story-lines this year? Duke and MSU are loaded with talent. Kansas has overachieved with a limited roster and no good big guys.

A similar thing is happening in the West. The big story-line is that Xavier is by far the weakest of the 1 seeds and that Gonzaga is going to make a run. On the ESPN Bracketology show all 4 or 5 "experts" predicted Gonzaga over Michigan in the West Region final. There is absolutely no way they all came to the exact same conclusion using independent thinking.

 

[JimboBBN]

I compiled the numbers for the FF Picks of the 27 "Experts" for ESPN.

South
Virginia: 15/27 (55.56%)
Arizona: 11/27 (40.74)
Kentucky: 1/27 (3.70%)

West
Gonzaga: 12/27 (44.44%)
Michigan: 6/27 (22.22%)
UNC: 5/27 (18.52%)
Xavier: 4/27 (14.81%)

East
Villanova: 21/27 (77.78%)
Purdue: 4/27 (14.81%)
West Virginia: 2/27 (7.41%)

Midwest
Michigan State: 19/27 (70.37%)
Duke: 7/27 (25.93%)
Kansas: 1/27 (3.70%)

Crazy how Kansas is getting no love. Clemson/Auburn are the most beatable 4/5 seeds, IMO. No easy games, of course. But Virginia, Xavier, and Villanova will all have better competition in the Sweet 16, IMO.

I could easily see Michigan in the title game. Can't believe they aren't getting more love. Very good team.

 

[toonces11]

Agree with you.

The "experts" on ESPN have varying degrees of knowledge on the game, but none of them are experts in predicting the outcomes of sporting events, despite what they would have you believe. So, just like so much of the public, the experts get caught up in the story-lines that the media is shoving down our throats.

And what are the story-lines this year? Duke and MSU are loaded with talent. Kansas has overachieved with a limited roster and no good big guys.

A similar thing is happening in the West. The big story-line is that Xavier is by far the weakest of the 1 seeds and that Gonzaga is going to make a run. On the ESPN Bracketology show all 4 or 5 "experts" predicted Gonzaga over Michigan in the West Region final. There is absolutely no way they all came to the exact same conclusion using independent thinking.

I think Udoka is one of the top ten 5's in the nation---its just that he is all we have until Silvio the high schooler has come about.

 

[coryfly]

Not sure why people call Izzo the king of March. Should be Roy's label.

Lot of experts picking against UNC as well though. I don't mind. None of it really matters.

 

[toonces11]

I compiled the numbers for the FF Picks of the 27 "Experts" for ESPN.

South
Virginia: 15/27 (55.56%)
Arizona: 11/27 (40.74)
Kentucky: 1/27 (3.70%)

West
Gonzaga: 12/27 (44.44%)
Michigan: 6/27 (22.22%)
UNC: 5/27 (18.52%)
Xavier: 4/27 (14.81%)

East
Villanova: 21/27 (77.78%)
Purdue: 4/27 (14.81%)
West Virginia: 2/27 (7.41%)

Midwest
Michigan State: 19/27 (70.37%)
Duke: 7/27 (25.93%)
Kansas: 1/27 (3.70%)

Crazy how Kansas is getting no love. Clemson/Auburn are the most beatable 4/5 seeds, IMO. No easy games, of course. But Virginia, Xavier, and Villanova will all have better competition in the Sweet 16, IMO.

Kansas isn't getting much love b/c we would have to win six games in a row playing great-----that would actually make 9 b/c we won the big 12 tourney. Kansas would have much better odds of beating any team in the country on one night---but doing it for 3 weeks straight without having an off night is a tall task. It can be done---but id agree with the experts and say statically, we aren't a huge threat to cut them down. Im fairly certain if every team got to play the six games out, we would have a stellar record---but its single elim and we are vulnerable on any night to a tourney team.

 

[CDNCBBFan]

I think Udoka is one of the top ten 5's in the nation---its just that he is all we have until Silvio the high schooler has come about.

For the record, I wasn't stating what I think. Just stating what I think the media driven narratives are.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Not sure why people call Izzo the king of March. Should be Roy's label.

Lot of experts picking against UNC as well though. I don't mind. None of it really matters.

Just curious, but wouldn't K be the current "King of March"?

 

[toonces11]

For the record, I wasn't stating what I think. Just stating what I think the media driven narratives are.

Then you would be correct. We are in fact, razor thin on the front line---and he is injured (missed 3 straight). We will have to bomb and make to win

 

[WeAreDePaul]

I compiled the numbers for the FF Picks of the 27 "Experts" for ESPN.

South
Virginia: 15/27 (55.56%)
Arizona: 11/27 (40.74)
Kentucky: 1/27 (3.70%)

West
Gonzaga: 12/27 (44.44%)
Michigan: 6/27 (22.22%)
UNC: 5/27 (18.52%)
Xavier: 4/27 (14.81%)

East
Villanova: 21/27 (77.78%)
Purdue: 4/27 (14.81%)
West Virginia: 2/27 (7.41%)

Midwest
Michigan State: 19/27 (70.37%)
Duke: 7/27 (25.93%)
Kansas: 1/27 (3.70%)

Crazy how Kansas is getting no love. Clemson/Auburn are the most beatable 4/5 seeds, IMO. No easy games, of course. But Virginia, Xavier, and Villanova will all have better competition in the Sweet 16, IMO.

yea, just based on odds alone you would think Kansas would get more love. After all, Duke and MSU have to get past each other AND Kansas whereas Kansas just has to get past one juggernaut.

 

[SpartanJD]

Yep. A chance for MSU to exorcise a few demons. Get the Duke monkey off their back and payback for Kansas bouncing MSU last year.

I really couldn't think of a more satisfying path this year to the FF for MSU if they beat Duke in the S16 and beat KU in the E8.

But it can be fools gold to already be looking at S16 and E8 match ups before the first round has even tipped.

 

[dukedevilz]

Kansas isn't getting much love b/c we would have to win six games in a row playing great-----that would actually make 9 b/c we won the big 12 tourney. Kansas would have much better odds of beating any team in the country on one night---but doing it for 3 weeks straight without having an off night is a tall task. It can be done---but id agree with the experts and say statically, we aren't a huge threat to cut them down. Im fairly certain if every team got to play the six games out, we would have a stellar record---but its single elim and we are vulnerable on any night to a tourney team.

I'm not one who thinks Penn will really challenge KU. There was some chatter that Penn plays really solid perimeter defense - which could create problems for a shooting team like Kansas. In reality, they've just played a lot of teams that don't shoot very well. Only played 3 teams that are in the top 50 of 3-point field goal percentage. Those 3 teams shot 48% from 3 against Penn... and yes, there will still be challenges in the round of 32 and the Sweet 16. But you'd be playing teams that are probably the equivalent of Texas and TCU. My point was that Kansas only has to beat one juggernaut to make the FInal Four. Michigan State/Duke will likely have to win two of those games...

 

[WeAreDePaul]

the big question I have with MSU taking on Duke is how in the world is JJJ going to stay out of foul trouble vs Duke's front line? It seems that every game MSU plays JJJ ends up glued to the bench early in the first half with foul trouble.

 

[toonces11]

I'm not one who thinks Penn will really challenge KU. There was some chatter that Penn plays really solid perimeter defense - which could create problems for a shooting team like Kansas. In reality, they've just played a lot of teams that don't shoot very well. Only played 3 teams that are in the top 50 of 3-point field goal percentage. Those 3 teams shot 48% from 3 against Penn... and yes, there will still be challenges in the round of 32 and the Sweet 16. But you'd be playing teams that are probably the equivalent of Texas and TCU. My point was that Kansas only has to beat one juggernaut to make the FInal Four. Michigan State/Duke will likely have to win two of those games...

It is a game we should control and win---we just look so bad when the outside shot isn't falling. Every team should have to play a tough game in the EE, Im glad MSU and Duke have to go at it before they possibly get to us. Im hoping for duke just b/c of the buzz that would be around that game.