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Lil' Bit of ACC Talk . . .

As of June 8th, Lunardi has 11 ACC Teams in the dance. Not bad. I think most of the seeds seem reasonable. But I do think that NC State is a bit underappreciated. I think they have a very good chance at getting a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Here's the breakdown by seed:

1- Duke
1- North Carolina
2- Virginia
3- Virginia Tech
4- Syracuse
5- Florida State
6- Clemson
8- Louisville
9- Miami
10- NC State
11- Notre Dame
 
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As of June 8th, Lunardi has 11 ACC Teams in the dance. Not bad. I think most of the seeds seem reasonable. But I do think that NC State is a bit underappreciated. I think they have a very good chance at getting a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Here's the breakdown by seed:

1- Duke
1- North Carolina
2- Virginia
3- Virginia Tech
4- Syracuse
5- Florida State
6- Clemson
8- Louisville
9- Miami
10- NC State
11- Notre Dame
No way dude, @mebeblue2 and the other cats fans say only 3. o_O
 
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If you look at http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/

It looks like ACC 9 SEC 8. I don't buy the ACC getting in 11. I also don't buy in that the SEC is laughable when comparing the 2 leagues. And I don't see 2 #1 seeds coming from the ACC.

There's plenty of games between the SEC and ACC this year. Should be a good indicator...

I do like how UL is toughing up their OOC schedule. Some of the others, like FSU hope they can win enough in the conference where they can ride the coattails into the tourney. If their OOC is anything like last year, pansies...
 
they normally fill them with teams that are not very good and some even have a losing conference record

So if a team went 12-0 in OOC, against the hardest OOC schedule in the country and beat 6 different eventual mid-major champs in the process, would you consider them "not very good" if they went 8-10 in the toughest conference in the country?

By your definition (of teams not truly having a legitimate national title chance), all but just 8-10 teams are just "filler" from teams that "aren't very good."
 
Haha, Brooky, I love the confidence! Here's my thoughts on the bet. The way the bet is set up is a little stacked against the Orange, with Cuse having to BOTH finish in the top 5 AND finish ahead of FSU, I'd give GE Nole a 60-40 chance of winning the bet. I think Cuse has a better than 50-50 chance of finishing in the top 5 (hell Athlon has Cuse ranked 10th in the country, and almost everyone has us top 25) and Cuse has a better than 50-50 chance of finishing ahead of FSU in the ACC standings. But I think the chance of both happening gives GE Nole the edge.

I think Va Tech, Cuse, FSU, and Clemson could finish in any order from 4th to 7th. That being said, I wouldn't sleep on NC State, Louisville, Notre Dame, or Miami. I could see any one of them sneaking into the top 6 or 7 in the ACC. I think Pitt, Ga Tech, and Wake are the only teams safely in the ACC basement with no shot at the tournament. Even BC could be a bubble team and surprise this year with a strong finish in the top 10 of the conference.

Very well said all-around. To me, the ACC currently looks like this (obviously still a LONG way to go before conference season):

Tier 1, best regular season record favorites - UVA/UNC/Duke

Tier 2, primed for a bye and legit shot at earning the 4th double-bye - FSU/Clemson/VT/Syracuse

Tier 3, better than not chance of making NCAAT - ND/Louisville/NCSU

Tier 4, truly on the bubble - Miami/BC

Tier 5, NIT maybe? - GT/Wake

Tier 6, effing awful - Pitt
 
I think Cuse is going to finish 2nd in the ACC, so I'm okay with GE Nole getting the better odds. Injuries could derail the bet for both of us, obviously, but a healthy Cuse team will have a top 5 defense in the nation next year. There are more question marks around the offense, but we know it will at least be better than it was last season.

2nd in the ACC for the regular season!?!? Wow, that's bold right there! Is this factoring in the unbalanced schedule? Does Cuse have a really easy draw that I don't know about?
 
If you look at http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/

It looks like ACC 9 SEC 8. I don't buy the ACC getting in 11. I also don't buy in that the SEC is laughable when comparing the 2 leagues. And I don't see 2 #1 seeds coming from the ACC.

There's plenty of games between the SEC and ACC this year. Should be a good indicator...

I do like how UL is toughing up their OOC schedule. Some of the others, like FSU hope they can win enough in the conference where they can ride the coattails into the tourney. If their OOC is anything like last year, pansies...

You mean FSU curb-stomping UF in the O'Dome was part of FSU riding the ACC's coattails?

At any rate, this coming year FSU plays UF, Purdue, UConn, at least one more P5 opponent on a neutral site, plus is in a very good preseason tourney with Villanova, LSU, Oklahoma State, and more. I think our schedule is fine.
 
Very well said all-around. To me, the ACC currently looks like this (obviously still a LONG way to go before conference season):

Tier 1, best regular season record favorites - UVA/UNC/Duke

Tier 2, primed for a bye and legit shot at earning the 4th double-bye - FSU/Clemson/VT/Syracuse

Tier 3, better than not chance of making NCAAT - ND/Louisville/NCSU

Tier 4, truly on the bubble - Miami/BC

Tier 5, NIT maybe? - GT/Wake

Tier 6, effing awful - Pitt

Seems reasonable. I still might include NC State in that 2nd tier. They're bringing in some stud transfers.

Also, Pitt is going to be infinitely better in 2019. Not NCAA Tournament material, but maybe NIT. Pitt will benefit a lot from Malik Ellison, who is now eligible; most of the Pitt faithful said that he was the best practice player last year. And Sidy Ndir, a New Mexico State grad transfer, started for NMSU the last two years when they made the NCAAT. Also, Pitt is bringing in some decent recruits (#36 class according to 247). This team is much, much more athletic than last year. Their inside scoring is still a big concern, however.
 
2nd in the ACC for the regular season!?!? Wow, that's bold right there! Is this factoring in the unbalanced schedule? Does Cuse have a really easy draw that I don't know about?

I don't know if the schedule is going to be easier than most or not. I just know what tends to happen when Boeheim has experienced teams; the zone becomes an absolute monster. It was good last year with 3 guys being forced to play practically 40 minutes per game. With the added depth, I don't see how any teams will be able to break 70. The question is whether or not the offense can keep pace with the defense. I don't know that it will for sure, but I know it will be better than the offense last season (low bar, I know).

Duke's freshman never worry me. JB has done well against K and the zone has made a lot of talented freshman look like poop. I'll take our experience on offense over Duke's freshman on defense, too. Cuse will match anybody in size and athleticism. I don't know much about what UNC is returning or what they have coming in, I just know we're due to lay some wood on them; they've had Cuse's number since joining the ACC. That leaves UVA. I think they'll be hungry and they're obviously experienced and talented. I'll give UVA the #1 spot.
 
Hokies too. ACC loaded as ever.
Doubt Dook finishes below 2-3 . Their floor is higher than most just due to the talent they can put on the floor.
Every year Virginia Tech is pumped up in the offseason and every year they suck. I'm not buying it until I see it.
 
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I don't know if the schedule is going to be easier than most or not. I just know what tends to happen when Boeheim has experienced teams; the zone becomes an absolute monster. It was good last year with 3 guys being forced to play practically 40 minutes per game. With the added depth, I don't see how any teams will be able to break 70. The question is whether or not the offense can keep pace with the defense. I don't know that it will for sure, but I know it will be better than the offense last season (low bar, I know).

Duke's freshman never worry me. JB has done well against K and the zone has made a lot of talented freshman look like poop. I'll take our experience on offense over Duke's freshman on defense, too. Cuse will match anybody in size and athleticism. I don't know much about what UNC is returning or what they have coming in, I just know we're due to lay some wood on them; they've had Cuse's number since joining the ACC. That leaves UVA. I think they'll be hungry and they're obviously experienced and talented. I'll give UVA the #1 spot.

Fair enough on a well-run JB zone. But I think you're being a bit overly simplistic looking at just Duke, UNC, and UVA. What makes the ACC different from the most other leagues is that about 12 different teams can beat any other team on any given night. If you go on the road against Clemson, Miami, GT, Wake, BC, or ND without at least your B+ game, you're probably going to lose.

Syracuse has been in the ACC for 5 years now. Y'all have finished with fewer than 8 conference losses once, and even then the Orange still dropped 4 games (including BC and GT). So to someone who's been watching 25 years of ACC ball, I'd say expecting anything better than 14-4 is out of whack and even 13-5 is on the high end of the "realistic" spectrum.

Looks like Cuse gets a H&H with Duke, Clemson, BC, and Pitt this year. 2 losses from those 8 seem like an absolute best case scenario. Then it's road only matchups with UNC, VT, ND, NCSU, and Wake. Again, 2 losses out of those 5 feels like the best case scenario. So you'd have to run the table in the home only matchups (UVA, FSU, Louisville, Miami, GT) to get 14-4, just in the BEST case scenario.

I'll go with 12-6 for my way-too-early Cuse projection.
 
Every year Virginia Tech is pumped up in the offseason and every year they suck. I'm not buying it until I see it.

When was the last time they were really pumped up in the preseason? They were picked to finish 7th in the league last year, and they were picked 10th for the 2016-17 season. They finished exactly 7th last year, and tied for 7th in 2017, meaning the Hokies actually met or exceeded expectations both years.
 
Seems reasonable. I still might include NC State in that 2nd tier. They're bringing in some stud transfers.

Also, Pitt is going to be infinitely better in 2019. Not NCAA Tournament material, but maybe NIT. Pitt will benefit a lot from Malik Ellison, who is now eligible; most of the Pitt faithful said that he was the best practice player last year. And Sidy Ndir, a New Mexico State grad transfer, started for NMSU the last two years when they made the NCAAT. Also, Pitt is bringing in some decent recruits (#36 class according to 247). This team is much, much more athletic than last year. Their inside scoring is still a big concern, however.

SKJ is ineligible for NCSU this year right? I will say I keep forgetting Blake Harris will become eligible after the first semester. Still, they feel a step below tier 2 at this point. It's not like VT, FSU, Clemson, and Cuse don't return a lot.

ACC is just going to be filthy next season.
 
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Don't think it will be stronger than the SEC? Or don't think it will be stronger than the ACC last year?

I don't think it'll be stronger than last season.

Just with a quick glance, only the B1g looks to be much improved vs last season.
 
I don't think it'll be stronger than last season.

Just with a quick glance, only the B1g looks to be much improved vs last season.

Idk. I could see the ACC not being "much improved" over last year, since it was already pretty darn strong. But to me it seems like it will be at least as good as last year. High level look:

1. Teams that appear to have gotten better: Syracuse, UNC, FSU, VT, UVA, Pitt
2. Teams that look about the same: Duke, Clemson, NCSU, BC, Louisville, ND
3. Teams that appear to have taken a step back: GT, Wake, Miami

So, 5 of the 6 teams that look better are returning NCAAT teams and 3 of the teams staying about the same were NCAAT teams.
 
Fair enough on a well-run JB zone. But I think you're being a bit overly simplistic looking at just Duke, UNC, and UVA. What makes the ACC different from the most other leagues is that about 12 different teams can beat any other team on any given night. If you go on the road against Clemson, Miami, GT, Wake, BC, or ND without at least your B+ game, you're probably going to lose.

Syracuse has been in the ACC for 5 years now. Y'all have finished with fewer than 8 conference losses once, and even then the Orange still dropped 4 games (including BC and GT). So to someone who's been watching 25 years of ACC ball, I'd say expecting anything better than 14-4 is out of whack and even 13-5 is on the high end of the "realistic" spectrum.

Looks like Cuse gets a H&H with Duke, Clemson, BC, and Pitt this year. 2 losses from those 8 seem like an absolute best case scenario. Then it's road only matchups with UNC, VT, ND, NCSU, and Wake. Again, 2 losses out of those 5 feels like the best case scenario. So you'd have to run the table in the home only matchups (UVA, FSU, Louisville, Miami, GT) to get 14-4, just in the BEST case scenario.

I'll go with 12-6 for my way-too-early Cuse projection.

12-6 is fair. The thing to remember about the last 3-4 years for Cuse is that they've been under some pretty strict sanctions that wrecked recruiting. I'd attribute it to the conference change if not for the fact the Big East before Cuse left was as strong as the ACC has been since then. And Syracuse was routinely predicted to finish top 3 in the Big East, a conference that started the trend of putting a crazy amount of teams in the NCAAT.

The problem with Cuse teams during this stretch has been a lack of depth and inexperience (if not freshman, then grad transfers who don't know the zone well). These two pain points are finally gone. You're going to be surprised.

edit: As far as the best case scenarios go, I think you posted what would good outcomes, but not best case. BC and Pitt should be 4 wins; a loss to either, even on the road, would be a surprise. Now, Duke could beat us twice, but beating Duke once wouldn't be a stretch. Clemson's best case scenario against Cuse would be 1-1. Cuse has had success against Clemson since joining the ACC and I don't think that will change, so 2-0 would be best case scenario for SU. The way I see it, Clemson hasn't gotten better than last season and Cuse beat them last year. Meanwhile, Cuse has gotten better. 1 loss on that 5 game road trip would be closer to best case scenario, not 2. VT falls into a similar category as Clemson. I don't see Cuse running the table in the just home matchups, in fairness.
 
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12-6 is fair. The thing to remember about the last 3-4 years for Cuse is that they've been under some pretty strict sanctions that wrecked recruiting. I'd attribute it to the conference change if not for the fact the Big East before Cuse left was as strong as the ACC has been since then. And Syracuse was routinely predicted to finish top 3 in the Big East, a conference that started the trend of putting a crazy amount of teams in the NCAAT.

The problem with Cuse teams during this stretch has been a lack of depth and inexperience (if not freshman, then grad transfers who don't know the zone well). These two pain points are finally gone. You're going to be surprised.

edit: As far as the best case scenarios go, I think you posted what would good outcomes, but not best case. BC and Pitt should be 4 wins; a loss to either, even on the road, would be a surprise. Now, Duke could beat us twice, but beating Duke once wouldn't be a stretch. Clemson's best case scenario against Cuse would be 1-1. Cuse has had success against Clemson since joining the ACC and I don't think that will change, so 2-0 would be best case scenario for SU. The way I see it, Clemson hasn't gotten better than last season and Cuse beat them last year. Meanwhile, Cuse has gotten better. 1 loss on that 5 game road trip would be closer to best case scenario, not 2. VT falls into a similar category as Clemson. I don't see Cuse running the table in the just home matchups, in fairness.

Honestly, it sounds like we really aren’t that far off...you’re just (for logical, understandable reasons) a little more of a homer on Cuse than I am. I view at Clemson and at VT as extremely tough games. VT is absolutely going to be better than last year, and I think Clemson has a good possibility of being better as well. And both LittleJohn and Cassell are tough ass places to play.

But candidly, I imagine if we did the same for FSU I’d say something like “FSU could go 5-1 over this stretch” and you would likely be a little more objective and say 4-2 sounds more realistic.

Regarding the Big East back then vs ACC now, I think the top 8 of the two conferences are probably pretty equal. But to me, the ACC now has more third and fourth tier depth than the Big East circa 2009-2013. Teams like BC and Miami—two solid big east programs—were no longer in the Big East. And instead you had atrocious teams like South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, and even Providence and St. John’s in several of those years. Just terrible, terrible teams. 3-4 teams every year that won 3 or fewer games.

So teams like Syracuse, Marquette, and Nova were able to survive an off night or two on the road and still finish with a 15-3 record.

In today’s ACC, that’s simply not the case. There’s maybe one team each year where you can “take the night off” and still win. Last year it was Pitt. A few years ago it was BC. Otherwise, you better come ready for a fight. And that’s where, as you say, depth, injuries, and inexperience really rear their ugly head. (Which is funny because I’ve asked Jim B on two separate occasions in the last 4 years whether lack of depth played a part in some of his teams’ losses and/or wearing down and he essentially scoffed at the mere suggestion both times).

And frankly, what else do people expect when you take some of the best programs in the Big East (Cuse, Louisville, and ND) and add them to the already deep and powerful ACC? It’s just a monster of a freaking league.
 
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When was the last time they were really pumped up in the preseason? They were picked to finish 7th in the league last year, and they were picked 10th for the 2016-17 season. They finished exactly 7th last year, and tied for 7th in 2017, meaning the Hokies actually met or exceeded expectations both years.
On this board? The past 2 years at least.
 
On this board? The past 2 years at least.

Ehh. There were a couple Kentucky fans hyping them because they wanted to feel better about having a really close game with them. One was saying they would finish top 4 in the ACC. Nearly everyone on the board told him "no way."
 
Ehh. There were a couple Kentucky fans hyping them because they wanted to feel better about having a really close game with them. One was saying they would finish top 4 in the ACC. Nearly everyone on the board told him "no way."
To be fair...:D
 
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Ehh. There were a couple Kentucky fans hyping them because they wanted to feel better about having a really close game with them. One was saying they would finish top 4 in the ACC. Nearly everyone on the board told him "no way."
we're talking offseason, not during the season, quite a few people have pumped up Va Tech and Buzz Williams... and yeah I remember the UK guy that insisted they were top 4 in the ACC after that game.
 
SKJ is ineligible for NCSU this year right? I will say I keep forgetting Blake Harris will become eligible after the first semester. Still, they feel a step below tier 2 at this point. It's not like VT, FSU, Clemson, and Cuse don't return a lot.

ACC is just going to be filthy next season.

SKJ is ineligible for the upcoming season, correct. NCSU is bringing in one of the top JUCO bigs, Derek Funderburk; he was actually a big-time recruit who spent his first year redshirting at Ohio State. Although I'm not sure he's big/strong enough to play the 5. State is also bringing in a couple of freshmen bigs along with Wyatt Walker, a Samford grad transfer, who averaged around 13/10 in his last season.

Blake Harris will be a solid contributor, but I don't think he starts. The two biggest additions will be CJ Bryce (17.4 ppg, 5.4 reb, 3 ast playing for 29-6 UNCW team) and Devon Daniels (10 ppg, 4.6 reb, 2.7 ast, 57% fg while playing for Utah). Throw those guys into the mix with Markell Johnson, Braxton Beverly, and Torin Dorin, and you've got a solid bunch.
 
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SKJ is ineligible for the upcoming season, correct. NCSU is bringing in one of the top JUCO bigs, Derek Funderburk; he was actually a big-time recruit who spent his first year redshirting at Ohio State. Although I'm not sure he's big/strong enough to play the 5. State is also bringing in a couple of freshmen bigs along with Wyatt Walker, a Samford grad transfer, who averaged around 13/10 in his last season.

Blake Harris will be a solid contributor, but I don't think he starts. The two biggest additions will be CJ Bryce (17.4 ppg, 5.4 reb, 3 ast playing for 29-6 UNCW team) and Devon Daniels (10 ppg, 4.6 reb, 2.7 ast, 57% fg while playing for Utah). Throw those guys into the mix with Markell Johnson, Braxton Beverly, and Torin Dorin, and you've got a solid bunch.
Thoughts on free transfer/trade?
 
SKJ is ineligible for the upcoming season, correct. NCSU is bringing in one of the top JUCO bigs, Derek Funderburk; he was actually a big-time recruit who spent his first year redshirting at Ohio State. Although I'm not sure he's big/strong enough to play the 5. State is also bringing in a couple of freshmen bigs along with Wyatt Walker, a Samford grad transfer, who averaged around 13/10 in his last season.

Blake Harris will be a solid contributor, but I don't think he starts. The two biggest additions will be CJ Bryce (17.4 ppg, 5.4 reb, 3 ast playing for 29-6 UNCW team) and Devon Daniels (10 ppg, 4.6 reb, 2.7 ast, 57% fg while playing for Utah). Throw those guys into the mix with Markell Johnson, Braxton Beverly, and Torin Dorin, and you've got a solid bunch.

I think “solid bunch” is a pretty accurate description. Is that good enough for a double bye in the ACCt? Idk. Seems like 6th-8th would be more likely, but maybe I’m underestimating Keatts.
 
Thoughts on free transfer/trade?

I'm cool with players transferring without sitting out a year. It's a one-time deal, right? You can't transfer after your freshmen year, have immediate eligibility, and repeat the process the following season, if I'm not mistaken. You still could theoretically play for 4 different schools, though:

Freshmen Year- play and decide to transfer after the season
Sophomore Year- immediately eligible
Junior Year- sit out
RS Junior- eligible after sitting out
Senior- Grad Transfer, immediately eligible

I'm sure the off-season will be crazy, lots and lots of turnover. But coaches will certainly remind players that you can't expect to be a great player if you're wanting to transfer at the first sign of adversity.

Top-tier teams like Duke and Kentucky will probably lose some bench players who want a bigger role, but at the same time they will win a lot of the recruiting battles, because mid-major stars want to play for big-time programs. So it will almost come out negligible.
 
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I'm cool with players transferring without sitting out a year. It's a one-time deal, right? You can't transfer after your freshmen year, have immediate eligibility, and repeat the process the following season, if I'm not mistaken. You still could theoretically play for 4 different schools, though:

Freshmen Year- play and decide to transfer after the season
Sophomore Year- immediately eligible
Junior Year- sit out
RS Junior- eligible after sitting out
Senior- Grad Transfer, immediately eligible

I'm sure the off-season will be crazy, lots and lots of turnover. But coaches will certainly remind players that you can't expect to be a great player if you're wanting to transfer at the first sign of adversity.

Top-tier teams like Duke and Kentucky will probably lose some bench players who want a bigger role, but at the same time they will win a lot of the recruiting battles, because mid-major stars want to play for big-time programs. So it will almost come out negligible.
Some might think UK/Duke will benefit. I think others will
 
You mean FSU curb-stomping UF in the O'Dome was part of FSU riding the ACC's coattails?

At any rate, this coming year FSU plays UF, Purdue, UConn, at least one more P5 opponent on a neutral site, plus is in a very good preseason tourney with Villanova, LSU, Oklahoma State, and more. I think our schedule is fine.

Much better than last year. It'll help NCAAT time.. You couldn't tell what you were going to get with UF. Most up and down team I've seen in a long time.
 
Much better than last year. It'll help NCAAT time.. You couldn't tell what you were going to get with UF. Most up and down team I've seen in a long time.

It will help with our seed come NCAAT time, sure. We had a top 15 or so SOS (with a very strong OOC schedule) in 2016-17 and were rewarded with a 3 seed in the NCAAT because of it.

But if you mean it will help with our NCAAT prep or performance...ehh. Our 2017 team got bounced in the second round despite the strong OOC schedule. Then last year we went to the Elite 8, despite a relatively down OOC schedule.

NCAAT performance seems more about matchups and and late-season health than anything else.
 
I have Clemson win the National Championship in both football and men’s basketball this year for the record so there.
 
@GE Nole

Interested in a friendly avatar bet? Winner picks the loser's avatar, effective from the end of ACC play to the beginning of ACC play the next season.

Bet: Syracuse will finish top 5 in the ACC and ahead of FSU. Both conditions have to be met for me to win. If both aren't met (Cuse out of top 5 and behind FSU), you win.

Okay, it’s a deal.


FSU and Cuse currently tied for 4th--though my Noles have the tiebreaker. Looks like we got ourselves a barn burner!

Also, I love reading the UK fan insisting that UL would be an NIT team this year, even if they had Cal as their coach.
 
Duke will most likely finish between 3rd and 6th. ACC has a lot of talent coming back and Duke will be trying to bring 5 freshman up to speed. I just don’t see any of them having the impact Bagley did last year.

This post didn't age well. @Sevro
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