It is time to get back into the stock market

Discussion in 'College Basketball Board' started by della, Mar 19, 2020.

  1. Hank_

    Hank_ Well-Known Member
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    Also, please don’t believe that, or frankly anything that comes from a CCP outlet.
     
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  2. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    The shut down will be short lived and don't you think the economy for the next 6 months has not already been accounted for in a 30% down turn?
     
    42 della, Mar 19, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
  3. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    I actually do believe it. You do realize that getting the virus is hardly a death decree.
     
  4. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    I'm saying the market which has dropped from 30k to 20k will bounce back 1500 pts in less than 2 months.
     
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  5. schoonerwest

    schoonerwest Well-Known Member
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    That’s not his point. His point is that China literally lies about everything so them claiming they have 0 new cases isn’t something anybody should put much faith into.
     
  6. Hank_

    Hank_ Well-Known Member
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    Do I think the economic effects of small businesses getting crushed and a future decade of stagflation on American consumers have been priced in from the largest haul of QE ever encountered? No, because they haven't occurred yet.

    You know what else hasn't occurred? Stock dilution from lenders running capital calls on overlevered corporate debt when demand doesn't recover.

    If you think it's just another "BTFD" opportunity, I think you're badly assessing the situation.
     
  7. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    That is a paranoid view point. They have nothing to gain by lying and everything to lose.
     
    47 della, Mar 19, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
  8. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    I deny your premise. We have had several economic melts downs (08 & 00) to name two. Did it result a decade of stagflation? No.

    Hank, you're welcome to your opinion. I have made my call (prediction). You are calling for further decline and a decade of stagflation. We will just have to see.
     
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  9. bMORE607

    bMORE607 Well-Known Member
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    RollLaugh
     
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  10. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    Don't just laugh like a fool, explain their gain if they lied about no new cases if you can.
     
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  11. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    More stock. The volatility will continue.
     
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  12. bMORE607

    bMORE607 Well-Known Member
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    China lies about anything and everything. It’s not a paranoid view, it’s a fact.
     
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  13. EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset Well-Known Member
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    Well sh**, since we can't gamble on sports, might as well gamble on big businesses.......
     
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  14. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    China lies when it benefits China. There would be no upside to lying about this. But, if you can point out the benefit of a lie, by all means have at it or it is just a paranoid point of
    view.
     
  15. bMORE607

    bMORE607 Well-Known Member
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    Are you shitting me? Is this for fvcking real?
     
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  16. I am stupid

    I am stupid Well-Known Member
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    Must be something in the smokey mountain air....
     
  17. schoonerwest

    schoonerwest Well-Known Member
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    I’m not going to pretend like I know why they do what they do but everything I’ve ever read into about China suggests they lie to their citizens, they steal intellectual property from all nations, they lie about most things to the international community and they withhold useful information if they think it will damage their reputation.

    It should also be noted that as far back as December there have been scores of doctors and biologists from all over the world posting daily updates about how China’s numbers were not adding up. There were whistleblowers in China that were condemning the state and saying that they didn’t take a proactive role until it was too late. No international individual that was a legitimate source (Harvard doctors, infectious disease experts, board members from the CDC and WHO, etc.) was believing a word that China was saying because the math suggested they were hiding something. To believe China now goes against all logic that is seemingly common knowledge in the intelligence and scientific community.
     
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  18. Hank_

    Hank_ Well-Known Member
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    Best of luck, hope you pick winners. There will definitely be some.
     
  19. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    bMORE, I'm open to an intelligent explanation of how lying about no new case would benefit the Chinese. You're staring me of the explanation.
     
  20. Hank_

    Hank_ Well-Known Member
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    Story in three parts.





     
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  21. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    It is easy enough to verify if they are dismantle their intsa hospitals they built for virus treatment. You also know that China is very much against losing face.

    In this case they gain nothing by lying and risk losing face by lying.
     
  22. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    No question they attempted to keep it hidden and they took a hit for it. The cat is out of the bag now. No reason for them to lie about it now.

    I'm not saying China won't lie. I am saying they are not stupid.

    Again, if you can explain how lying and risking it being found out would be a benefit to them do so.
     
  23. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    So, when you can't explain something you start up a potty mouth. It was a simple question.
     
  24. Hank_

    Hank_ Well-Known Member
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    Two questions that might help you here.

    1. Where does the bulk of the supply chain for medical supplies and medication reside?

    2. What did China do in response to SARS?
     
  25. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    Make your points Hank and I'll either agree or make a counter argument. I'm not going to take both side in a discussion on a message board, though.
     
  26. MileHighSpartan

    MileHighSpartan Well-Known Member
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    I don't think we're at the bottom. Restaurants and travel (hotel / airlines) are in trouble. Millions of service industry workers are not getting paid right now, and that could trickle up to landlords who can't pay mortgages etc.

    JPMChase predicting negative GDP this quarter and next. Then growing Q3 on. Just seems like there is no way that everything is back to "good" now looks nothing happened.
     
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  27. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    I'm sure you have heard of the simple adage, "buy low and sell high". Well, it is not nearly as easy as it seems. People generally do the opposite. They sell when the market is low for fear and the buy as the market is high due to greed. You are never going to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest, so you shoot for the relative low or high tide.

    Now seems like that time for me. There is blood in the water, investors have been slaughtered. All of the bad news is out of the market. Hank will say, "there will be ripple effects yet to come", but I'll argue that they are already figured in and will be mitigated in part by the Gov't's willingness to throw money at it.

    Therefore yesterday I put 30% of cash on hand back into the market. Am I right, we will see.
     
  28. TheDude1

    TheDude1 Well-Known Member
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    Uhhhh... and which professional or model gave you this idea?

    Or is this just a “from the couch” gut-instinct-about-pandemics sort of assessment?

    Just FYI, cases in my area are skyrocketing, things are locking down and businesses are shuttering, and the local hospitals are already overwhelmed and turning away non-essential cases, with the doctors and nurses all getting sick and not having masks or equipment to protect themselves. Just FYI.

    Not saying I know when is the time to buy stock, but with the food service industry, the entertainment industry, the airline industry, and all of the rest just starting to feel the impact...
     
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  29. SNU0821

    SNU0821 Well-Known Member
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    I can get on board with that. All my point was, I don't think we've reached the bottom yet. The good news we're up two consecutive days (so far), which I think is some what of a positive sign through all this.
     
  30. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    I've made my call. How about you making yours? (regarding markets)
     
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  31. SNU0821

    SNU0821 Well-Known Member
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    Could be wrong, but I think he is referring to the markets and not necessarily just the virus itself.
     
  32. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    Really, the positive news is that everyone who could declare some sort of emergency has. The Gov't is willing to throw tons of money at it.
     
  33. SNU0821

    SNU0821 Well-Known Member
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    Exactly. I think the worst of the news is over unless Trump declares a nation wide lockdown for some extended period. Based on my conversations with the IBs I work with, they don't believe that's the case. I think now the conversation moves toward how do we recover from this and how quickly. As you pointed out, we know the government is going to throw the kitchen sink at this thing to help Americans.
     
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  34. MileHighSpartan

    MileHighSpartan Well-Known Member
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    Is that actually the case though? California, one of the biggest economies in the world itself, is going on lockdown tomorrow. Atlanta announced it yesterday.

    It just seems too easy/simple that we had a bad 3 weeks + corona + oil, and that its all over with already. Airlines asking for $50b in bailouts, Fed printing money like its nothing, banks allowed to lend as much as they want, etc.
     
  35. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    California is always going to California. You need to remember the market has already lost over a trillion dollars. It is not like I'm arguing that the markets will be untouched. Everything is relative.
     
  36. schoonerwest

    schoonerwest Well-Known Member
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    I’ve read estimates of 16000-18000 as a low for the DOW. 1850-2000 for the S&P 500. Sound about right for a worst case low? I don’t think we’ve bottomed out just yet but that’s just a guess based on IB articles I’ve read. We’re gonna see some horrible earnings posted for the 1st and 2nd quarter + we’re still in the beginning stages of isolation and quarantine here in America. The fear isn’t over by far.

    In hindsight I really wish I had been flipping these up and downs we’ve been seeing.

    +7%
    -9%
    +9%
    -11%

    Crazy times. Kind of glad I’m not a flipper though. I’d be spending way too much time focusing on that instead of work in an already crippled industry that’s taken a 1-2 punch to the nose this month. So while I’m not flipping anything, we’ve made some pretty safe investment calls this week. Mostly long term stuff. Some 1-2 year stuff that’ll be worth selling when we’re back up to highs.
     
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  37. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    Of course that is possible in a worst case scenario. However, I don't see a worst case scenario especially with the Gov't stepping in and the weather getting warmer. I hope you did note that I am entering the market with 30% of cash, not 100%.:)
     
  38. MileHighSpartan

    MileHighSpartan Well-Known Member
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    And I am just giving my opinion. Lockdown only just started for most cities this week, so we don't really know the full brunt of it. Denver is locked down for 8 weeks - those service industry people and retail workers aren't going to be able to survive 8 weeks without pay.

    My wife is a RN, and her hospital doesn't even have enough masks for everyone working. They've cancelled all non-essential surgeries. They have to be selective in who they even test for corona, because they have limited tests available.

     
  39. della

    della Well-Known Member
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    You're making a sensible argument. I just read that the (US) market had lost 3 trillion and that was before it was declared a pandemic. I couldn't find newer info.

    So, it really comes down to does 4 or 5 trillion (Guess-ta-ment) in value swept away account/under account/over account for the damage. I say, over account.
     
  40. MileHighSpartan

    MileHighSpartan Well-Known Member
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    Don't get me wrong, I'm chomping at the bit right now.... I regrettably missed out on the 2009+ "sale" so I'm wanting to jump in on some of these opportunities. I just think we still have a ways to go.
     
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