Gonzagas actual numbers

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
Who are these top 50 teams away from home? Over inflated conference teams like San Fran?

You know why San Francisco is good in the metrics? They have 10 top 100 wins. For reference, that's just as many as LSU - and it's more than Florida (7), and Mississippi State (6).

If you take out the Gonzaga losses, which of course aren't bad losses, then USF has 6 losses by a combined 16 points. In short, USF is a lot closer to having 13 or 14 top 100 wins than they are to only have 8.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
They lost to Alabama this year (was it at home?). Auburn and Kentucky beat Alabama twice, home and away. How do you think the Zags would do at Kentucky or Auburn? How would they do at Alabama?

Give us a break.

Did you not hear me say multiple times that Gonzaga would lose 3-4 times in a conference like the SEC? And I pointed out that schools like Arkansas and Auburn only played 4 road games against top 50 teams. So, if I'm saying Gonzaga would lose 3-4, it kind of sounds like I'm saying they would struggle to win on the road against the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn.

You give Gonzagas a lot of credit but you never admit that they play in a wussie conference. You defend one of the weakest conferences in the nation.

I pushback against lazy narratives. Why do you think we're seeing 8 Non-P6 in the Round of 32 each year? Just crazy luck every year? Maybe, just maybe, the gap between these top mid-majors and fringe top 25 teams isn't that large. And when you have 3 of the top 4 mid-majors in one conference, that gives ground for a semi-decent conference.

Obviously nowhere near the level of the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or Big East. I never claimed it was. I've only said the top was equivalent to the Pac-12 or ACC, which I believe is true. I've said multiple times that the bottom half of the WCC is trash. If you're going to criticize, fine. But, don't gloss over 95% of what I said.

We all know that Gonzaga is a great team in an insignificant conference. If they did not play in that wussie conference they would never get a 1 seed, in fact they would be a four or a five. So: Why do you defend it?

So last year, for example, Gonzaga was 11-0 in Quad 1 games prior to the title game. You willing to say they were more like a 4 or 5 seed last year?
 
  • Wow
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

AuHoosier420

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Oct 9, 2008
28,116
8,350
113
You know why San Francisco is good in the metrics? They have 10 top 100 wins. For reference, that's just as many as LSU - and it's more than Florida (7), and Mississippi State (6).

If you take out the Gonzaga losses, which of course aren't bad losses, then USF has 6 losses by a combined 16 points. In short, USF is a lot closer to having 13 or 14 top 100 wins than they are to only have 8.
These aren’t legit top
Did you not hear me say multiple times that Gonzaga would lose 3-4 times in a conference like the SEC? And I pointed out that schools like Arkansas and Auburn only played 4 road games against top 50 teams. So, if I'm saying Gonzaga would lose 3-4, it kind of sounds like I'm saying they would struggle to win on the road against the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn.



I pushback against lazy narratives. Why do you think we're seeing 8 Non-P6 in the Round of 32 each year? Just crazy luck every year? Maybe, just maybe, the gap between these top mid-majors and fringe top 25 teams isn't that large. And when you have 3 of the top 4 mid-majors in one conference, that gives ground for a semi-decent conference.

Obviously nowhere near the level of the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or Big East. I never claimed it was. I've only said the top was equivalent to the Pac-12 or ACC, which I believe is true. I've said multiple times that the bottom half of the WCC is trash. If you're going to criticize, fine. But, don't gloss over 95% of what I said.



So last year, for example, Gonzaga was 11-0 in Quad 1 games prior to the title game. You willing to say they were more like a 4 or 5 seed last year?
i don’t think they are 11-0 last year in wuad 1 games if they are in the SEc though. What metrics don’t account for is the in conference every week grind. You keep glossing over this little fact. Gonzaga’s metric aren’t the end be at all because they aren’t playing against the grind
 
  • Haha
Reactions: dukedevilz

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
These aren’t legit top

i don’t think they are 11-0 last year in wuad 1 games if they are in the SEc though. What metrics don’t account for is the in conference every week grind. You keep glossing over this little fact. Gonzaga’s metric aren’t the end be at all because they aren’t playing against the grind

Dude. 0 losses. You got sodomized by Gonzaga. And so did the ACC Champs, Virginia. And so did the highest rated team in the Pac-12, USC (#7). You know, the conference that had 3 teams in the Elite 8. And Iowa and Kansas got beaten badly - as did Oklahoma and Creighton. They won 27 consecutive games by double-digits.

Your argument is trash. But to put in a way that you might understand, your argument is very WCC-like.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

Bert Higginbotha

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Jan 9, 2003
18,425
4,426
113
Smiths Grove, Kentucky
kentucky.rivals.com
You know why San Francisco is good in the metrics? They have 10 top 100 wins. For reference, that's just as many as LSU - and it's more than Florida (7), and Mississippi State (6).

If you take out the Gonzaga losses, which of course aren't bad losses, then USF has 6 losses by a combined 16 points. In short, USF is a lot closer to having 13 or 14 top 100 wins than they are to only have 8.
The top 50 teams are crap. Geeze. How many Zags' wins are over a top 25 team?

Oh they beat Texas at home. Texas in not in the top 25.
Oh they beat UCLA away, big props. Wow.
OOOOOGGGGHHHHH they lost to Duke.
OOOOOGGGGHHHHH they lost to Alabama at home.
Oh they beat Texas Tech at home. Wow.

How many top 25 teams has the Zags' played? Few.

Texas ain't in the top 25.
UCLA 13
Duke 7
Alabama ain't in the top 25.
Texas Tech 14
St. Mary's 17 (because they don't play shit.)

There is is folks. The Zags ain't played crap.
 

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
I gotta say of all the threads around here did NOT peg this one to be 10+ pages.

Hah right. SEC homers keep coming at me with the same recycled drivel. I've already conceded that Gonzaga would lose multiple games in the SEC. I've conceded that Gonzaga could also lose in the Sweet 16 (and they could win the whole thing, too). I conceded that the bottom half of the WCC is trash. Those concessions evidently aren't good enough lol.
 
  • Wow
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

Bert Higginbotha

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Jan 9, 2003
18,425
4,426
113
Smiths Grove, Kentucky
kentucky.rivals.com
Hah right. SEC homers keep coming at me with the same recycled drivel. I've already conceded that Gonzaga would lose multiple games in the SEC. I've conceded that Gonzaga could also lose in the Sweet 16 (and they could win the whole thing, too). I conceded that the bottom half of the WCC is trash. Those concessions evidently aren't good enough lol.
Why does Duke not schedule those lower half of the SEC? Why not schedule a home and home with Auburn, Alabama, Florida . . . . oh my god, schedule a home and home with Kentucky? Coach K would have nothing to do with that because Kentucky would have owned his ass.

Answer: They would get beat.

Give me a damned break.
 

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
The top 50 teams are crap. Geeze. How many Zags' wins are over a top 25 team?

Oh they beat Texas at home. Texas in not in the top 25.
Oh they beat UCLA away, big props. Wow.
OOOOOGGGGHHHHH they lost to Duke.
OOOOOGGGGHHHHH they lost to Alabama at home.
Oh they beat Texas Tech at home. Wow.

How many top 25 teams has the Zags' played? Few.

Texas ain't in the top 25.
UCLA 13
Duke 7
Alabama ain't in the top 25.
Texas Tech 14
St. Mary's 17 (because they don't play shit.)

There is is folks. The Zags ain't played crap.

Hahahaha the way you overreact to everything is funny.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

AuHoosier420

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Oct 9, 2008
28,116
8,350
113
Hah right. SEC homers keep coming at me with the same recycled drivel. I've already conceded that Gonzaga would lose multiple games in the SEC. I've conceded that Gonzaga could also lose in the Sweet 16 (and they could win the whole thing, too). I conceded that the bottom half of the WCC is trash. Those concessions evidently aren't good enough lol.
No. You keep bringing up things that aren’t relevant. Be honest. You love ken pomeroy don’t you? The guy is god to you.
 

Montana81

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 12, 2004
6,885
1,331
113
Gonzaga has won 12 of their last 14 road games against P6 schools.

Arizona- Win
Washington- Win
Texas A&M- Win
UNC- Loss
Creighton- Win
Washignton- Win
Washington State- Win
UCLA- Win
Arizona- Loss
St.John's- Win
West Virgnia- Win
Oklahoma State- Win
Washignton State- Win
Xavier- Win

I know. It doesn't matter because they didn't play them all in the same season. They couldn't withstand a grind. At some point you guys might want to give them credit.

When did they play those games? how good were those teams in the years they played them?
 
  • Love
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

Bert Higginbotha

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Jan 9, 2003
18,425
4,426
113
Smiths Grove, Kentucky
kentucky.rivals.com
Hahahaha the way you overreact to everything is funny.
I love you dukedevilz. Please don't doubt that.

But I actually don't overreact. I try to tell the truth.

The Zags are a good team. I doubt that they are the best even though they have been given the benefit of the doubt. They may be the best, but that has not been proven because of their wussie conference. The Zags have not "run with the horses" because there are no horses in their league. I hope that you understand that.

You are bright and I would love to meet you and we could discuss basketball in depth.

You must run with the horses. That is an old Kentucky term (probably older than Kentucky), but I am sticking with a Kentucky term. My father told me that I had to run with the horses to make it in life. I did, and I did it in spades.

If you can't run with the horses then you can't compete. It is about time that the Zags have to run with the horses. They have not been required to do that yet. They get the benefit of remarkable seeds because they never play jack shit.

But we have no Zag fans on here, other than you. So we cannot even discuss it. The Zags are absent on our board. So I take from that that they don't give a crap about the Zags. The are out smoking weed instead.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
Yes, I'm well aware that it was 2 ago. I only mentioned it because it's literally the only SEC road game they've played in the past decade.

And don't you think your Alabama comment is a bit disingenuous? Actually, very disingenuous. It was a 4-point game when they came to the under 4 minute TV timeout. Making 13 threes, especially for a below-average shooting team, certainly helped their cause.



And what does Georgia have to do with Gonzaga? Do you think winning at Georgia is just as hard as winning at Saint Mary's?



It's true, they're taking the Duke route, just playing neutral court games OOC. But, they still have 3 Quad 1 road wins. And here's a stat worth considering.

Record against Top 50 Teams Away from Home Court
Gonzaga: 5-3, 62.5%
Auburn: 3-3, 50.0%
Kentucky: 3-6, 33.3%
Tennessee: 2-7, 22.2%
Arkansas: 1-4, 20.0%

I know. I know. It's because the SEC crowds are so daunting.

But as I said previously in this very thread, if the home court is such a big factor, how come there wasn't a material difference in road winning percentage from 2021, a year without fans, to a typical year?

Road winning percentages from the last 3 seasons
2020- 35.16%
2021- 39.25% (no fans)
2022- 37.87%



I've said multiple times that Gonzaga would lose 3-4 times in a good conference. And heck, Auburn and Arkansas only played 4 road games against top 50 teams all season long. So, it kind of seems like I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the SEC when I say Gonzaga would lose 3-4 games, most likely all road games.




Uh.... What? You realize the gap has closed on Gonzaga considerably, right? Saint Mary's and San Francisco are both in the top 25 of the metrics.

I would agree that this team is most likely a notch below 2017 and 2017. However, there isn't a juggernaut team in college basketball. They have just as a high ceiling as anyone out there.
That’s a whole lotta excuses on that Alabama loss. Fact is, Alabama beat them easily and it doesn’t matter that it was a 4 point game at the 4 minute mark, that just means Gonzaga played even worse in crunch time. Bama hit 13 threes on UK (minus Tyty) and still lost by double digits.

Alabama has been beat down in the SEC and Gonzaga would too. That stuff Chet is doing against high school talent, won't work in the SEC, BIG10 & BIG12.

Yeah, the metrics say SMC and SF are both top 25 in the NET, but the NET also has/had Houston at 2. Not only that, but the NET has no way of compensating for tough road environments.

While those schools were playing Portland State and Pepperdine, the schools getting 2, 3 and 4 seeds were playing top 10 teams.

You just can't keep defending that league, stop looking at the net, it's flawed. Look at the product on the court. How Gonzaga didn’t beat SF by 30 last night is beyond me. They looked horrid and very small.

Then, smc barely got by freaking Santa Clara… come on man.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
Obviously not all wins are the same. But, the idea is every Quad 1 game is tough. In level of difficulty, a Quad 1 game should at bare minimum match the difficulty of playing an 11 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament.
Every college game is tough, that still doesn't, or shouldn't, hide the fact that the quad system is heavily flawed. Gonzaga gets to count home wins against San Francisco and smc as Q1 wins, that's not the same as what the teams behind Gonzaga have to play.

The fact that Auburn, UK, Baylor and KU are even close to the 1 line with the teams they have to play, is crazy. Gonzaga has 3 losses and their schedule was a joke. If they played in a real conference, they would have at least 7 losses.

If they can't beat Alabama in their own backyard, there is no way they would only have 4 or 5 losses in the SEC . This gonzaga team is not as good as you are trying to make everyone believe.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
Kentucky went 9-6 in those 15 games. They're in contention for a 1 seed.

Gonzaga, according to your perception, wouldn't even be in contention for a 2 seed. So, what you're saying is Gonzaga's ceiling would be 8-7? That's the absolute best they could do in those 15 contests. That kind of makes you sound like an SEC homer.
Well, no matter what UK does, they're not moving off the 2 line. Baylor lost at KU by 30, KU leapfrogged UK.

KU lost to Baylor, Baylor leapfrogged UK.

KU lost to TCU, then struggled with them at home, KU leapfrogged UK on the 2 line.

Yet UK smoked KU in January in Lawrence. That’s what happens when you lose games, even to good teams.

If Gonzaga played a real conference schedule, they would have 6 or 7 losses, if not more and they would definitely not be in line for a 1 seed and would probably be a 3 seed.

That’s what I'm saying. The metrics defenders (guys like you) claim that the NET compensates for level of competition, but it doesn’t, that is very clear.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Montana81

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
I wish kentucky got to play at san francisco for a quad 1 win instead of at lsu, notre dame, auburn, arkansas or tennessee.

swapping just that one game means we’d be a lock for a 1 seed right now instead of having to likely beat an alabama team(that gonzaga couldn’t beat in their back yard) for a 3rd time, a tennessee team that’s playing as well as anyone in the country right now, and probably 1 of arkansas or auburn(another team vying for a 1 seed) in back to back to back games…
Exactly, these guys are just counting quad 1 wins, but they're not actually looking at who these wins were against. There's a huge difference between teams like San Fran and the ones you listed.

The playing fields are not equal and Gonzaga is getting a huge lift because the system is flawed.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
So, you missed the second half where they cut it to single digits? And how about the part where they were missing a 1st Team All-Conference center. That kind of makes a difference.



You've complained about blue bloods thinking only their opinion matters several times.

I'm a college basketball fan before I'm a Duke fan. So, when Duke is pounding Syracuse, I have no issue with directing my attention towards the Wisconsin-Rutgers game - and simply watching the Duke game later. I watch every top 50 team. And guess what? The WCC has several of them.
The fact that San Francisco cilut the lead down to 8 (I watched the entire game), says more about how bad Gonzaga is than how good SF is.

There were times ehen SF couldn't even complete a simple pass.

They’re a bad basketball team and Gonzaga only beating them by 10 is very telling.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
Oh, so you know the exact algorithm?

It probably helps that Gonzaga has beaten 9 top 50 teams by double-digits. Their closest victory all season long was 9 points. Imagine that.
Who are these top 50 teams that Gonzaga beat? UCLA, TT, Texas, smc (twice) and smc. Who else?

The TT win is a very good win, but those other ones, meh.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
Gonzaga has won 12 of their last 14 road games against P6 schools.

Arizona- Win
Washington- Win
Texas A&M- Win
UNC- Loss
Creighton- Win
Washignton- Win
Washington State- Win
UCLA- Win
Arizona- Loss
St.John's- Win
West Virgnia- Win
Oklahoma State- Win
Washignton State- Win
Xavier- Win

I know. It doesn't matter because they didn't play them all in the same season. They couldn't withstand a grind. At some point you guys might want to give them credit.
I think everyone here knows Gonzaga is a good team, definitely good enough to win it all if given the right draw, but they have holes that would be exposed in a power 5 conference.

They’re getting a hell of an advantage by playing in the WCC and flawed metrics make them seem head and shoulders better than everyone else.

If you were to use you eyes, do you think Gonzaga beats Arizona, Baylor, UK, UT, Ark or Auburn on a neutral court? I don't.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
You guys love to over emphasize a single game.

Does this mean that Kentucky sucks for losing to a Notre Dame team that had just been smacked around by Boston College, A&M and St Mary's?
To be fair, UK lost at Notre Dame in a jacked up arena when they were retiring a jersey.
Gonzaga lost to Alabama in Seattle.
 

Montana81

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 12, 2004
6,885
1,331
113
To be fair, UK lost at Notre Dame in a jacked up arena when they were retiring a jersey.
Gonzaga lost to Alabama in Seattle.
I mean…when we played Notre Dame we weren’t very good. That game seemed to open some eyes in our program though. Cal’s most importantly. Our offense changed after that.

I think, and hes said as much, he finally admitted to himself that his offense wasn’t getting it done.

So when we lost to notre dame, it’s very possible they were better than us at that point in the season. That was one of the losses too where we actually got a really good whistle for being on the road.
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
I mean…when we played Notre Dame we weren’t very good. That game seemed to open some eyes in our program though. Cal’s most importantly. Our offense changed after that.

I think, and hes said as much, he finally admitted to himself that his offense wasn’t getting it done.

So when we lost to notre dame, it’s very possible they were better than us at that point in the season. That was one of the losses too where we actually got a really good whistle for being on the road.
I believe that was UK's first road game.
They went and blew out unc by 28 the very next game after, like you said, Cal changed the offense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Montana81

Montana81

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 12, 2004
6,885
1,331
113
I believe that was UK's first road game.
They went and blew out unc by 28 the very next game after, like you said, Cal changed the offense.

Yeah, going by that notre dame game, and where we were at that point in the season, im stunned it turned out the way it did.

I’m not saying i gave up. But all i saw was the same shit we’d been watching for the last 4 seasons. So after that i just figured…another 9-10 loss season and a 4 or 5 seed coming. Then we waxed the next 4 teams we played by 30+ a game and averaged 92 points in the process. So i was just like…”wait a minute now. what’s this?”. It had just been so long since i had seen a kentucky team playing such good basketball in december.
 

RipThru

Well-Known Member
Jan 11, 2010
2,016
2,264
113
It’s almost like people don’t know what they’re watching when they watch a college basketball game, but “metric, metric, metric” bygod. Wonder what some of y’all did before basketball became a math problem?
 

AuHoosier420

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Oct 9, 2008
28,116
8,350
113
It’s almost like people don’t know what they’re watching when they watch a college basketball game, but “metric, metric, metric” bygod. Wonder what some of y’all did before basketball became a math problem?
The kenpom jerkoffs are the most annoying types in college basketball for sure
 
  • Like
Reactions: RipThru

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
Yeah, going by that notre dame game, and where we were at that point in the season, im stunned it turned out the way it did.

I’m not saying i gave up. But all i saw was the same shit we’d been watching for the last 4 seasons. So after that i just figured…another 9-10 loss season and a 4 or 5 seed coming. Then we waxed the next 4 teams we played by 30+ a game and averaged 92 points in the process. So i was just like…”wait a minute now. what’s this?”. It had just been so long since i had seen a kentucky team playing such good basketball in december.
Cal changed everything, even his assistant coaches and recruiting style, but he still tried to hang on to that old ass offense, he refused to let go, but he realized after the ND loss, that it was time and I'm glad he did.
 

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
Bahahhaha you all really want to win this argument, huh? Maybe one of you should start a thread at Rupp Rafters, imploring more UK faithful to join this discussion.

How many times have I said Gonzaga would lose 3-4 games in the SEC? Consider the fact that 11 of the 18 SEC games for Auburn were against sub-50 opponents. Now, consider the fact that Gonzaga has won 41 consecutive games over teams ranked between 51-150 (essentially all of those sub-50 games for Auburn, minus Georgia, who is a notch below).

So, humor me and let's say Gonzaga goes 11-0 in those 11 SEC contests of sub-50 teams with Auburn's same schedule. Because their track record is astounding in those games, just grant me this one concession (and if you recall, Zags had a good road record against P6 schools anyway - winning 12 of their last 14. Only losses were to teams that were eventual 1 seeds). So, if the Zags go 11-0 in those sub-50 games, is it really so hard to believe that Gonzaga could go 3-4 or 4-3 in those final 7 games?

And it's funny that you all want to call me out as somebody that only looks at metrics. Hah. Really? That's funny. I watch a solid 25-30 games every week. I don't think Gonzaga is head and shoulders above everyone else. I never said they were. But, I do think they're on par with Arizona and Kentucky. And maybe another 5 schools or so are right behind them.

Here's one more interesting stat.

Record against projected 6 seeds or higher (using bracketmatrix, which includes 85 unique bracketologists)
Arkansas: 5-2
Gonzaga: 5-3
Kentucky: 5-5
Auburn: 4-3
Tennessee: 5-7

So, none of the top 4 SEC teams even has more wins over projected 6 seeds (or higher) than Gonzaga. I'm sure that will change after the SEC Tournament. Still, the only one with a higher winning percentage is Arkansas, a school that has 5 additional losses to account for. And Gonzaga has won three of those contests away from their home floor, which is more than any of the SEC schools.

Someone mentioned a stat like the top 4 or so schools in the SEC had only lost one combined home game. I know a lot of those contests could have gone either way. If you look at the top 6 teams in the Big Ten, they have a combined 17 home losses on the season. Which is significant when you consider the Big Ten has 8 schools in the top 25 for attendance.

Also, the only other times Gonzaga was ranked #1 in KenPom heading into the tournament came in 2017 and 2021. Those years turned out to be okay for them.

And here's one more fun stat. If you take the two winningest tournament teams in the SEC from 2015-present, they don't quite match Gonzaga's tournament win total.

Tournament Wins, 2015-Present
Gonzaga- 20
Kentucky/Florida- 19
 

kyjeff1

Well-Known Member
Sep 8, 2012
5,211
4,193
113
Bahahhaha you all really want to win this argument, huh? Maybe one of you should start a thread at Rupp Rafters, imploring more UK faithful to join this discussion.

How many times have I said Gonzaga would lose 3-4 games in the SEC? Consider the fact that 11 of the 18 SEC games for Auburn were against sub-50 opponents. Now, consider the fact that Gonzaga has won 41 consecutive games over teams ranked between 51-150 (essentially all of those sub-50 games for Auburn, minus Georgia, who is a notch below).

So, humor me and let's say Gonzaga goes 11-0 in those 11 SEC contests of sub-50 teams with Auburn's same schedule. Because their track record is astounding in those games, just grant me this one concession (and if you recall, Zags had a good road record against P6 schools anyway - winning 12 of their last 14. Only losses were to teams that were eventual 1 seeds). So, if the Zags go 11-0 in those sub-50 games, is it really so hard to believe that Gonzaga could go 3-4 or 4-3 in those final 7 games?

And it's funny that you all want to call me out as somebody that only looks at metrics. Hah. Really? That's funny. I watch a solid 25-30 games every week. I don't think Gonzaga is head and shoulders above everyone else. I never said they were. But, I do think they're on par with Arizona and Kentucky. And maybe another 5 schools or so are right behind them.

Here's one more interesting stat.

Record against projected 6 seeds or higher (using bracketmatrix, which includes 85 unique bracketologists)
Arkansas: 5-2
Gonzaga: 5-3
Kentucky: 5-5
Auburn: 4-3
Tennessee: 5-7

So, none of the top 4 SEC teams even has more wins over projected 6 seeds (or higher) than Gonzaga. I'm sure that will change after the SEC Tournament. Still, the only one with a higher winning percentage is Arkansas, a school that has 5 additional losses to account for. And Gonzaga has won three of those contests away from their home floor, which is more than any of the SEC schools.

Someone mentioned a stat like the top 4 or so schools in the SEC had only lost one combined home game. I know a lot of those contests could have gone either way. If you look at the top 6 teams in the Big Ten, they have a combined 17 home losses on the season. Which is significant when you consider the Big Ten has 8 schools in the top 25 for attendance.

Also, the only other times Gonzaga was ranked #1 in KenPom heading into the tournament came in 2017 and 2021. Those years turned out to be okay for them.

And here's one more fun stat. If you take the two winningest tournament teams in the SEC from 2015-present, they don't quite match Gonzaga's tournament win total.

Tournament Wins, 2015-Present
Gonzaga- 20
Kentucky/Florida- 19
Speaking of people that want to win the argument, you are arguing with 4 or 5 different people and every one of your posts are a mile long.

Sorry man, I just disagree with you on all of this. Watch the teams on the floor. Gonzaga is the only team that plays above the rim in that conference, everyone else has small, unathletic players and it's just not their year.

The metrics are flawed and Gonzaga is benefitting, just admit it.

It's funny how Auburn gets beat on by analysts because their guards aren't that great (I strongly disagree), but nobody says a word about Gonzaga's okay guards. I would take Auburn’s backcourt over Gonzaga's all day long, but for whatever reason, everyone feels the need to prop up Gonzaga. I'm not sure why, because this is not one of Mark Few's better teams
 

RipThru

Well-Known Member
Jan 11, 2010
2,016
2,264
113
Bahahhaha you all really want to win this argument, huh? Maybe one of you should start a thread at Rupp Rafters, imploring more UK faithful to join this discussion.

How many times have I said Gonzaga would lose 3-4 games in the SEC? Consider the fact that 11 of the 18 SEC games for Auburn were against sub-50 opponents. Now, consider the fact that Gonzaga has won 41 consecutive games over teams ranked between 51-150 (essentially all of those sub-50 games for Auburn, minus Georgia, who is a notch below).

So, humor me and let's say Gonzaga goes 11-0 in those 11 SEC contests of sub-50 teams with Auburn's same schedule. Because their track record is astounding in those games, just grant me this one concession (and if you recall, Zags had a good road record against P6 schools anyway - winning 12 of their last 14. Only losses were to teams that were eventual 1 seeds). So, if the Zags go 11-0 in those sub-50 games, is it really so hard to believe that Gonzaga could go 3-4 or 4-3 in those final 7 games?

And it's funny that you all want to call me out as somebody that only looks at metrics. Hah. Really? That's funny. I watch a solid 25-30 games every week. I don't think Gonzaga is head and shoulders above everyone else. I never said they were. But, I do think they're on par with Arizona and Kentucky. And maybe another 5 schools or so are right behind them.

Here's one more interesting stat.

Record against projected 6 seeds or higher (using bracketmatrix, which includes 85 unique bracketologists)
Arkansas: 5-2
Gonzaga: 5-3
Kentucky: 5-5
Auburn: 4-3
Tennessee: 5-7

So, none of the top 4 SEC teams even has more wins over projected 6 seeds (or higher) than Gonzaga. I'm sure that will change after the SEC Tournament. Still, the only one with a higher winning percentage is Arkansas, a school that has 5 additional losses to account for. And Gonzaga has won three of those contests away from their home floor, which is more than any of the SEC schools.

Someone mentioned a stat like the top 4 or so schools in the SEC had only lost one combined home game. I know a lot of those contests could have gone either way. If you look at the top 6 teams in the Big Ten, they have a combined 17 home losses on the season. Which is significant when you consider the Big Ten has 8 schools in the top 25 for attendance.

Also, the only other times Gonzaga was ranked #1 in KenPom heading into the tournament came in 2017 and 2021. Those years turned out to be okay for them.

And here's one more fun stat. If you take the two winningest tournament teams in the SEC from 2015-present, they don't quite match Gonzaga's tournament win total.

Tournament Wins, 2015-Present
Gonzaga- 20
Kentucky/Florida- 19
1. My issue isn't with Gonzaga; I think they're pretty good. San Fran and some of those other teams are slightly above average regardless of metrics.

2. Tournament wins- now do since 2010.
Some posters have been trying to tell you they believe Gonzaga's win total in the tourney is propped up because they are virtually guaranteed 2 wins every tournament because they get a high seed, all the while playing a shitty schedule in which they are only tested 6-7 times a year. That is the point some are trying to make. You can post all the metrics you'd like about St. Mary's and San Fran but the fact remains nobody would know who they are if they didn't play Gonzaga, because they just aren't that good.
 

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
Speaking of people that want to win the argument, you are arguing with 4 or 5 different people and every one of your posts are a mile long.

Sorry man, I just disagree with you on all of this. Watch the teams on the floor. Gonzaga is the only team that plays above the rim in that conference, everyone else has small, unathletic players and it's just not their year.

The metrics are flawed and Gonzaga is benefitting, just admit it.

It's funny how Auburn gets beat on by analysts because their guards aren't that great (I strongly disagree), but nobody says a word about Gonzaga's okay guards. I would take Auburn’s backcourt over Gonzaga's all day long, but for whatever reason, everyone feels the need to prop up Gonzaga. I'm not sure why, because this is not one of Mark Few's better teams

And my issue is, all I hear are the same recycled talking points. None of you have actually provide data which indicates Gonzaga would struggle to win an elite conference. You know why? Because Gonzaga wins the majority of games against everyone - road games against P6 schools, P6 games regardless of location, tournament games, top 50 games. All of those numbers indicate that yes Gonzaga would lose some games, but they would also contend for P6 conference titles, especially in years like 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022.

1. My issue isn't with Gonzaga; I think they're pretty good. San Fran and some of those other teams are slightly above average regardless of metrics.

2. Tournament wins- now do since 2010.
Some posters have been trying to tell you they believe Gonzaga's win total in the tourney is propped up because they are virtually guaranteed 2 wins every tournament because they get a high seed, all the while playing a shitty schedule in which they are only tested 6-7 times a year. That is the point some are trying to make. You can post all the metrics you'd like about St. Mary's and San Fran but the fact remains nobody would know who they are if they didn't play Gonzaga, because they just aren't that good.

I've been using 2015 as my time of reference for a reason. That's when they flipped the switch from good to elite. Obviously if you go back far enough Gonzaga's numbers are going to be dwarfed by any blue blood.

And I've been trying to tell you that Kansas, UNC, Villanova, Duke, and Virginia have all been a 1/2 seed just as many times as Gonzaga in the past 6 tournaments. And yet, they still win more than anyone. And they've won more tournament games this century as a double-digit seed than any other school.

And I still maintain that SMC is at least fringe top 25 and USF is at least a top 40 team. SMC nearly won three consecutive games against Notre Dame, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Was a 1-point game in the final minute against Wisconsin, the Big Ten Champs. USF has 10 wins against top 100 teams. All of their losses, minus Gonzaga, were by 5 points or less. They just as easily could have beaten SMC twice. Yes
 

RR30

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Sep 16, 2013
4,806
5,334
113
Team
Kentucky
They lost to Alabama this year (was it at home?). Auburn and Kentucky beat Alabama twice, home and away. How do you think the Zags would do at Kentucky or Auburn? How would they do at Alabama?

Give us a break.

You give Gonzagas a lot of credit but you never admit that they play in a wussie conference. You defend one of the weakest conferences in the nation.

We all know that Gonzaga is a great team in an insignificant conference. If they did not play in that wussie conference they would never get a 1 seed, in fact they would be a four or a five. So: Why do you defend it?

You know it. I know it. Everyone else knows it. Why defend a great team in a piece of shit conference? Take your stats and go see Joe Lunardi and see if he can get the Zags higher. While you are at it get more B!G teams in. We all know it will happen.

This is nonsense Bert. They would have been the #1 seed in any conference last year. Do they get helped by playing in a liquid shit conference every year? Yes. Would they still be in contention for 1 seeds if they played in a better conference? Also yes.
 

JimboBBN

Well-Known Member
Jan 26, 2016
10,370
12,957
113
The Bluegrass State
Team
Kentucky
Sounds to me like you guys are agreeing more than you think.

Devilz: Gonzaga would do fine in the SEC but obviously not dominate like the WCC. They could easily finish behind UK, Auburn, or Tennessee in this specific year. However, beating up on bad teams in a weak conference doesn't usually affect their tournament output.

SEC guys: Gonzaga routinely benefits from a weak conference, and playing in said conference gives them more benefit than playing in a strong conference like the SEC. When it should be the opposite.
 

RipThru

Well-Known Member
Jan 11, 2010
2,016
2,264
113
And my issue is, all I hear are the same recycled talking points. None of you have actually provide data which indicates Gonzaga would struggle to win an elite conference. You know why? Because Gonzaga wins the majority of games against everyone - road games against P6 schools, P6 games regardless of location, tournament games, top 50 games. All of those numbers indicate that yes Gonzaga would lose some games, but they would also contend for P6 conference titles, especially in years like 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022.



I've been using 2015 as my time of reference for a reason. That's when they flipped the switch from good to elite. Obviously if you go back far enough Gonzaga's numbers are going to be dwarfed by any blue blood.

And I've been trying to tell you that Kansas, UNC, Villanova, Duke, and Virginia have all been a 1/2 seed just as many times as Gonzaga in the past 6 tournaments. And yet, they still win more than anyone. And they've won more tournament games this century as a double-digit seed than any other school.

And I still maintain that SMC is at least fringe top 25 and USF is at least a top 40 team. SMC nearly won three consecutive games against Notre Dame, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Was a 1-point game in the final minute against Wisconsin, the Big Ten Champs. USF has 10 wins against top 100 teams. All of their losses, minus Gonzaga, were by 5 points or less. They just as easily could have beaten SMC twice. Yes
You can maintain whatever you want. I, and many others, disagree with you about SMC and USF. I have seen them both play a couple times and I came away unimpressed. And that "top 100" bullshit to me doesn't mean a thing, other than you beat some average/below average teams.

By the way, I'm not sure how you quoted me in the first part, but I didn't say that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

ExitFlagger

Well-Known Member
May 2, 2015
10,791
7,217
113
Team
Kansas
The kenpom jerkoffs are the most annoying types in college basketball for sure
I don't think many people see Kenpom or any computer ranking as the end-all, but it's a slightly more unbiased approach than "my team and conference are the bestest cuz I says so."

Plus, we all know you'd be jerking to Kenpom hourly if Auburn were #1.
 

Bert Higginbotha

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Jan 9, 2003
18,425
4,426
113
Smiths Grove, Kentucky
kentucky.rivals.com
This is nonsense Bert. They would have been the #1 seed in any conference last year. Do they get helped by playing in a liquid shit conference every year? Yes. Would they still be in contention for 1 seeds if they played in a better conference? Also yes.
I don't think that my post was nonsense. It may be wrong, but I don't think they would have dominated the SEC. I don't think that they would have dominated the B1G. I don't think that they would have dominated the Big 12.

It may be nonsense to you, but it sure as hell ain't nonsense to me. The Zags may be the best team to ever play collegiate basketball, but they have not proved it to me yet. Bring it on Zags.

UK in the SEC Tourney are about to play a killers row if the seeds hold up. That is something the Zags never have to face. Give me a break.
 

RR30

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Sep 16, 2013
4,806
5,334
113
Team
Kentucky
I don't think that my post was nonsense. It may be wrong, but I don't think they would have dominated the SEC. I don't think that they would have dominated the B1G. I don't think that they would have dominated the Big 12.

It may be nonsense to you, but it sure as hell ain't nonsense to me. The Zags may be the best team to ever play collegiate basketball, but they have not proved it to me yet. Bring it on Zags.

They were 31-1 last year. Maybe they drop a game or two in power conferences. But they were a dominant team. I don't think their team this year is special but last year's was. Pretty sure 2015 Kentucky is the only team who's higher rated than they were.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bert Higginbotha

Montana81

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 12, 2004
6,885
1,331
113
Hah right. SEC homers keep coming at me with the same recycled drivel. I've already conceded that Gonzaga would lose multiple games in the SEC. I've conceded that Gonzaga could also lose in the Sweet 16 (and they could win the whole thing, too). I conceded that the bottom half of the WCC is trash. Those concessions evidently aren't good enough lol.

You’re much more reasonable than the gonzaga apologists on rafters that insist they are far and away the best team in the country because “the data says so”.
 

Montana81

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 12, 2004
6,885
1,331
113
They were 31-1 last year. Maybe they drop a game or two in power conferences. But they were a dominant team. I don't think their team this year is special but last year's was. Pretty sure 2015 Kentucky is the only team who's higher rated than they were.

I think they were the 2nd best team in the country last season. They probably lose another game or two if they play in a better conference. But in the end it was them and baylor and at full strength baylor was clearly better.

Hell, baylor may not have lost a game either if not for having to shut it down for 2 weeks due to covid. i think they lost their first 2 games back and that was it.

It was also a very down year for college basketball. Probably the worst in a long time.
 
Last edited:

Original_Irish

Well-Known Member
Apr 27, 2010
5,580
3,767
113
You’re much more reasonable than the gonzaga apologists on rafters that insist they are far and away the best team in the country because “the data says so”.
Ya I’ve seen those guys. They aren’t great.

Gonzaga has a massive message board presence, but it’s not associated with Rivals or 24/7. It’s actually through their local newspaper’s online edition. So it you are JUST a Gonzaga basketball fan, there isn’t a huge reason to be here. From my experience, the ones who show up aren’t great.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Montana81

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
8,948
11,581
113
Sounds to me like you guys are agreeing more than you think.

Devilz: Gonzaga would do fine in the SEC but obviously not dominate like the WCC. They could easily finish behind UK, Auburn, or Tennessee in this specific year. However, beating up on bad teams in a weak conference doesn't usually affect their tournament output.

SEC guys: Gonzaga routinely benefits from a weak conference, and playing in said conference gives them more benefit than playing in a strong conference like the SEC. When it should be the opposite.

Yeah. Pretty much. I can concede that the Zags would lose multipole games in a league like the SEC.

So, while Gonzaga definitely benefits from a better record, that doesn't mean they're gifted a 1 seed. They were 30-4 in 2018 and given a 4 seed. In 2015, they were 32-2 and given a 2 seed. Playing in the WCC means you have a smaller margin for error. In 201 7 and 2019, Gonzaga was a 1 seed, but they were 4th on the S-Curve both years, meaning one more loss would have dropped them a seed line. And then there's Saint Mary's. A school that was ranked in the top 40 and went 27-5 in 2016 and 27-4 in 2018 - they missed the tournament both years. They had some bad losses, but the margin of error for them was clearly very small. The 2017 team was essentially the same roster, and they had a nice season and gave Arizona solid game in the Round of 32.

Does a 5, 6, or 7-loss Gonzaga team in a power conference mean they drop to a 2, 3 or 4 seed? Maybe. But, it obviously depends on what the overall body of work looks like. There's been at least one 6-loss 1 seed in each of the past 5 tournaments. Given that the Zags have won more than 50% of their games against projected top 6 seeds (unlike most top 25 teams), they have no bad losses, haven't loss to a sub-50 team in the past 5 years, and they've won every game by 9+ points, I don't think it's the least bit unreasonable to believe the Zags would do just fine in a power conference. Would they win a P6 conference every year? Of course not. But, they would have been a very strong contender most years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JimboBBN