Final 4 predictions

[Boilermaker03]

I tend to trust the schools less in the tournament that have really high luck ratings. Kansas is currently 14th in the country in the KenPom luck metric. They're 9-1 in games decided by 5 points or less.

Are they capable of winning 6 in a row? Yes. Absolutely. I just don't trust them as much as a few others.

Interesting, I never took the luck category for much.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Games that catch my eye on Bracketology.

Purdue, who has to be the top rated 2 seed, gets a second round game of the winner of a 7/10 Kentucky vs West Virginia matchup. Would not like that as a Purdue fan.

#3 Kansas State vs #6 Creighton in Des Moines. That would be a rough second round game for a 3 seed.

#4 UConn vs any of the 1's would be a tough game. Would much rather have Virginia or Indiana if I were a 1. However, he has them against the best 5 seed in Saint Mary's first.

You'd have to like KU's chances here. If it goes all chalk, KU would get Missouri in the second round and Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen. Two teams they already beat this year by an average margin of victory of 25pts. They'd be walking to the Elite Eight with only one of Arizona, Marquette or San Diego State in their way of back-to-back final fours, and the game would be in Kansas City.

I doubt the committee would put West Virginia in a bracket for Purdue to play in the 2nd game. We already played them.

 

[KUhawks34]

KU is capable of repeating for sure. They are one of the best teams but they are also very flawed like all of the best teams. I don’t think there is one team who would beat last years Kansas team.

KU does play close games and that certainly can be a problem in March but at the same time they’ve shown they can win in multiple ways. This KU team has to bring it defensively and with effort to create extra possessions and run outs. They aren’t good enough to not too. Flawed team for sure but everyone is. Not great teams.

KU also played by far the hardest schedule.

 

[Boilermaker03]

There's a discussion on the Purdue site that the last two years, the final four teams have all been in the top 26 of adjusted shot quality and the last two champions have been in the top 2.

ShotQuality

We use computer vision and AI to deliver player location data for NCAA, NBA, WNBA and international basketball to power your predictions.

shotquality.com

Congrats UCLA RollLaugh

 

[tw3301]

Why?

It's really hard to repeat.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

It's really hard to repeat.

Just look to history for proof.

Without looking, UF, Duke, and then...UCLA?
Then again, the surest way something can be done is if someone's already done it.

 

[ThePhog08]

It's really hard to repeat.

I agree. I am starting to get my hopes up for a FF though. I need to temper expectations though.

 

[ExitFlagger]

It's really hard to repeat.

It's hard to win it period. I don't think that winning it the previous year somehow makes it immensely harder.

 

[duckboy33]

USC
UCLA
Arizona
Whoever wins the PAC 12 Tournament

 

[F-Duke]

UCLA just lost their #2 scorer and best defender. They'll be lucky to make it past the sweet 16. My gut (which is never right) says this is going to be a crazy year where the unexpected happens.

Bama
Houston
Marquette
Texas

 

[HoosierstuckinIowa]

Houston
Zona
Tex
Xavier

 

[kyjeff1]

It's hard to win it period. I don't think that winning it the previous year somehow makes it immensely harder.

Yeah, I don't get the thought that it's somehow harder to win because you won the year before. It’s just freaking hard and just losing good players from the year before would be the only reason why winning back to back is hard, but everyone loses players, so each team has it tough.

This KU team isn't under anymore pressure than anyone else just because they won it last year. If they allow that to create more pressure, well, that's their own fault.

 

[tw3301]

It's hard to win it period. I don't think that winning it the previous year somehow makes it immensely harder.

I'd agree but doing it twice basically doubles down on your theory. One game, one team goes lights out, etc. If you look at past teams they have done it there's a big scare in there.

 

[MGO2022]

Kansas will be there because they’ve been paying players for years