College basketball's way-too-early preseason top 25 teams for the 2020-21 season

Discussion in 'College Basketball Board' started by BasketBallJunkie-UK, Mar 18, 2020.

  1. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
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    I wasn't using that as a synonym for raw talent. I think those teams had plenty of capable college players. I'm basing that more on eye test than hype. Not every roster can look like those from 2010, 12 or 15.

    There's an element of randomness to the tourney (but of course this doesn't stop people from downgrading KU historically for being a basket away from three more titles), but I also think some of his teams have underperformed in the regular season. Was the SEC strong enough in 13, 14 and 18 to justify an average of 11.5 losses? Especially the year that 40-0 shirts were printed.

    So is it your opinion that the sports media and Kentucky fanbase expects too much in most years, and that Calipari has gotten everything reasonably possible out of his teams? What do you expect from next year's team?
     
  2. Big_Blue79

    Big_Blue79 Well-Known Member
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    I think your last paragraph pretty much summarizes where we differ. Yes, of course the expectations are overhyped for UK in most years because they account for upside and not downside risk (and honestly, who the eff cares about fans printing 40-0 shirts?).

    The 2012-13 team, which was replacing damn near everyone with unknown quantities, was preseason #2 because guys like... Archie Goodwin and Harrow and Noel (who was very good). That team finished 55 in KenPom. How many losses should that team have? There's no eye test in the world that says that team should have been good, especially after Noel, the only productive player, went down. FFS, just look at that roster with the benefit of hindsight!

    You bring up a good point about regular seasons. On average, I would expect that teams relying on freshmen and lacking continuity would struggle more (and have higher variability) in the regular season than teams with veterans and continuity. That's common sense, and I would be stunned if any empirical research contradicted that. The model that Cal has followed - intentionally or not (a lot of kids leave that weren't realistically projected to go, such as SGA and Booker, leave) - lends itself to more regular season losses than a model that chases more continuity and experience. Does that mean that UK "underperformed in the regular season," or is that a necessary (and frankly unwanted) byproduct and the sense of underperforming based on unreasonable expectations? I submit the latter. I also posit that such teams are likely to improve more than teams relying on experience and continuity. In admittedly noisy samples, that appears to be the case.

    Re: your small text on tournament variability, I agree that the same logic applies to KU's lack of titles, but I note that the sample size is much larger. But I don't dunk all over, say, 1997 UK or 2003 KU for losing close title games (although for trolling purposes, all bets are off).

    I assume that the teams you say "had plenty of capable players" you mean the 2017, 2019, and 2020 teams. They did, and they performed within the range of reasonable outcomes that we should have, and did (rational people), expect.

    I have no idea who will be on next year's team. If we bring back Quickley, I think expectations will be justifiably high and a reasonable outcome would be an Elite 8 or better. But, as with all UK teams that are relying on freshmen (and significant improvements from sophomores), the variance of outcomes will be high. If your goal is championships, generally a higher variable strategy is a better approach (at least when there's not a huge production disparity), so I'm generally okay with this approach. It's sort of like the approach that the Houston Rockets have taken over the last several years - big swings for a title - versus that taken by, say, Utah. And Houston's 2018 team, like 2015 UK, was one of the best non-title teams of all time. See, e.g., Nate Duncan, John Hollinger, Zach Lowe, and Ben Taylor.
     
  3. Quavarius

    Quavarius Well-Known Member
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    And yet Duke has won 2 NCAA titles since 2010. I’m sure a lot of those older teams, who’ve won multiple ACC regular season championship would trade their best season for 2 of Duke’s titles. The same can’t be said on the other end.
     
  4. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Wasn't Duke's 2010 team pretty experienced?
     
  5. Quavarius

    Quavarius Well-Known Member
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    Yes, but I was speaking towards the “haven’t won an ACC regular season championship since 2010” comment.
     
  6. Quavarius

    Quavarius Well-Known Member
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    It’s also interesting that since Duke started landing multiple OAD players (2015) and despite not winning the ACC regular, we have never been out of the Top 5 in the ACC during that time frame compared to other experienced rosters.

    2015- 2nd
    2016- 5th (tied)
    2017- 3rd (tied)
    2018- 2nd
    2019- 2nd
    2020- 2nd (tied)

    So, no, 5 stars don’t guarantee you anything just like experienced players don’t either.
     
  7. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Duke hasn't. Not sure what there is to debate about that. The last time Duke won the regular season ACC crown was 2010. My point wasn't that Duke hasn't had success. It's that winning a season long thing like that takes consistent and sustained success, which can be tricky when relying on so many newcomers. But by March, the newcomers have often coalesced into a monster unit.

    The fact that 2010 Duke was an experienced team only enhances my point.
     
  8. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    What part of "it's not always..." and "some teams win..." was difficult to grasp. You seem to be under the impression that I said, "a senior with no talent will always beat a super talented freshman." Which...is nothing close to what I said.
     
  9. sdave

    sdave Well-Known Member
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    Michigan might have 2 five stars sign. That could make a big difference in their ranking.
     
  10. dragonhawk1855

    dragonhawk1855 Well-Known Member
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    the problem is Howard as not proven he can win at a high level . just because you sign a pair of 5* players does not = instant success,

    the BT teams return the majority of their teams roster. yes experience is better than FR Talent.
     
  11. RR30

    RR30 Well-Known Member
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    Neither has whoever Iowa's coach name is yet you think they are elite
     
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  12. kyjeff1

    kyjeff1 Well-Known Member
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    Howard more than proved he can coach and he did it with someone elses players.
    Give him some talent and he'll be a threat in the BIG10.
    You have to know that talent can take you places that 3* players usually can't.
     
  13. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    Next year...
    That is going to be tough.

    Baylor and Kansas aren't getting better and that entire second group plus Oklahoma State will close the gap.

    Texas bringing pretty much everyone back and adding 5 star Greg Brown
    WVU loses 1 player
    Texas Tech brings in a solid recruiting class lead by Burnett to mix with last year's class
    Oklahoma St brings in #1 player Cade Cunningham to go with Likekele
    Oklahoma only loses Doolittle.

    Plus you think TCU should improve as they were young.

    Going to be difficult to get a #1 seed out of the Big 12 next year IMO
     
  14. dragonhawk1855

    dragonhawk1855 Well-Known Member
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    Fran produced 1 BT POY, 5 1st Team All BT Players, 1 1st Team AA, 1 2nd Team AA, 1 FR AA, 2 2nd Rnd NBA picks., 2 3rd Team All BT Teamer and 1 2nd Team All BT and multiple All BT FR teamers.

    this fall Fran has these on the team
    1st Team AA, 1st team All BT, BT POY in Garza
    3rd Team All BT Wieslkamp
    3rd Team All BT Jordan
    All BT FR Teamer Fredrick who led the BT in 3 point %.
    Connor who led the team and Nation in assists to TO margin

    87% of their scoring
    86% of their rebounding
    90% of their assists
    88% of their blocks
    44% of their TO's

    Iowa's adjusted offense was 5th in D1 BB
    the defense improved from 111th to 97th, the 2nd straight year that it has improved. it still has to improve to get where it was between 12-13 season to 15-16 season when it was between #24 and 34. so much for Fran not coaching defense.
     
  15. dragonhawk1855

    dragonhawk1855 Well-Known Member
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    Howard took over a LOADED roster from Bielien so stop with the BULL SH** already.
    as for the stars these will be the starters by ESPN
    top 100 4* Garza
    top 100 4* Wieskamp
    top 100 4* Connor
    4* Toussaint
    Fredrick All BT FR Team

    off the bench
    top 100 4* Patrick
    4* Jordan

    doesn't look like 3* players to me.
     
  16. KUhawks34

    KUhawks34 Well-Known Member
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    We will
     
  17. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    This isn't saying Kansas won't be an elite team but if you look at the games this year.

    That separation between Baylor/KU and those teams weren't that great. That gap is very small going into next season
    I expect 4-6 Big 12 loses for whoever wins the Big 12 next year.

    If that can get you a #1 seed so be it.
     
  18. KUhawks34

    KUhawks34 Well-Known Member
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    I get it but I think this team will take 3 steps forward offensively and 1 step back defensively. You are underselling the potential of the team IMO. By conference time you will see why I am high on the team.
     
  19. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    You think Dotson is for sure staying.

    I do like McCormick and think he can be a solid big but the return of Dotson is the key.

    But if you are saying you will be for sure better next year.
    That is a lot of hope. Could happen.
     
  20. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
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    I have no idea how good KU will be. It doesn't make sense to be extremely confident or the opposite at this point. They bring in a few promising pieces but likely lose two major pieces.

    That said, Self's only had a few seasons with 5-6 Big 12 losses, and this team should be better than those. But who knows.
     
  21. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    5-6 Big 12 losses is more common for KU with the round robin.
    Actually 3 of the last 6 seasons.
    6 out the last 8 with 4 losses.

    Even with that I still think Kansas can be very good.
    Big 12 was young with a lot of teams. Those teams make up that second group.

    Without the Big 12 and NCAA Tournament we didn't get a chance to see which of those teams were going to separate so I will include all of them for now plus Oklahoma State. Who was really in that second group but their record without Likekele didn't help them.

    That second group was half the conference.
    If those 5 teams take a step up even without KU taking a step back you could expect 4 losses at least in the Big 12.
     
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  22. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
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    3 steps forward offensively? That may be expecting a bit much.
     
  23. kyjeff1

    kyjeff1 Well-Known Member
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    WTH just happened? We were talking about coach Howard and Michigan. Why the hell are you listing Iowa's starting 5? This makes no sense.
    Can you stop pumping Iowa basketball for even 1 post?
    Also, if you think the roster Howard took over was loaded, you have no idea what loaded means.
    Of course, you think Iowa is loaded every year, so that explains why you think Michigan's roster was loaded.
     
  24. dragonhawk1855

    dragonhawk1855 Well-Known Member
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    because poster are pumping up Michigan's roster as being the best in the BT, this season Fran has his best group and the best since Lute's FF and Dr Tom's Elite 8 teams.

    some claim last season was Fran's best when in fact it wasn't. this season could be his best scoring and 3 point shooting team and could rival that 12-13 seasons adj defense that ended up #24 by kenpom.

    also this past season they were rated the #5 adj offense.
     
  25. dragonhawk1855

    dragonhawk1855 Well-Known Member
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    to prove a point you have to have facts to back up your claim and I did. can't stand the thought of Fran having a top team can you.

    also are you saying that Bielien was a lousy recruiter and left nothing?

    he left him 4* Teske, 4* Livers, 4* Simpson, the 2018 class had 4 4* recruits alone. 2019 had 2 4* recruits that's 6 4* recruits before Howard took over, so yeah Howard took over a loaded roster and now its time to crean 4* players to make room.

    you are a bigger tool/fool for making your claims.
     
  26. kyjeff1

    kyjeff1 Well-Known Member
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    Look, it's best that you hear this now, but I can guarantee you this, Iowa is not going to win a title in your lifetime, or your grandkids lifetime.
    I get it, you like Iowa, but just be satisfied with "groundhog day". Iowa is the same every year. The results never change.
     
  27. kyjeff1

    kyjeff1 Well-Known Member
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    So you think a bunch of 4* kids = "loaded"? Man, you really have no clue.
     
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  28. dragonhawk1855

    dragonhawk1855 Well-Known Member
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    its not like they are 2-3* kids, the only time they had a roster like you think they should have was the Fab 5 the best players money could buy. and low and behold Howard was one of those players

    as for my lifetime I have seen all 3 FF's. they will continue to improve as Fran gets more top 100 players to come to Iowa,
    he has already gotten these as his top recruits
    Woodbury #50 by ESPN and Rivals
    Cook #38 by ESPN
    Wieskamp #42 by Rivals and top 100 by ESPN. he is also getting top 100 4*'s and 4*'s just outside the top 100. the ones in the 51-100 are ussually 4 year players
    those outside the 100 are 4 year players as well, personally I could care less if he ever gets a 5* 1 n done player.

    just look at Archie of Indiana he has got 1 1 n done and it didn't do him much good
    TJD looks to be another 1 n done and it didn't do much either.

    Michigan will never be a Duke or Kentucky unless he spends a bunch of money.
     
  29. HRTheCard

    HRTheCard Well-Known Member
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    The only problem is that Shaka is your coach
     
  30. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    Shaka had full control of that team it seemed like at the end of the year.
    Really found something with Kai Jones. Best thing is Jones will be there for a second year to play with Greg Brown.
    Even some NBA teams can't put that type of athleticism in the front court

    All his eggs are in one basket. Could lose most of that team after next year.
     
  31. HRTheCard

    HRTheCard Well-Known Member
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    This is absolutely his last year to prove something. Returning most of the team and adding a star top 5-10 player.
     
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  32. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    As of right now the entire team.
    There could be someone who transfers. We will have to see.

    Teams have a soul. Smart was trying to create one for Texas last year with Andrew Jones.
    That resolve and fight they had represented Jones. Shaka is someone who can hit all the buttons on a team. Just matters when. Sometimes I think he gets overconfident.

    Like with the Oklahoma St game to finish the year.
    That team went from every offensive set being called in from the sideline to just letting them play.


    Next year is going to be trying to mix and match lineups and find something to make a deep run.
    Hopefully it doesn't take him too long into the season.
    Most people want to throw him over board already.
     

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