College basketball's way-too-early preseason top 25 teams for the 2020-21 season

[jhmossy]

Wow, are you getting butthurt over my opinions about the preseason rankings?
Why are you top roping over what I said? Seems a bit uncalled for.

And why are you bringing up UK's title and FF stats? Why does that matter? It's not like UK gets ousted in the first weekend every year. UK is a threat to reach a FF most years, which is more than you can say about most other programs.

However, UK is bringing in two top 5 kids, they haven't done that since 2014. Also, there's a very good chance that more players return off the 19/20 team than we typically see return. If IQ and EJ return, sorry to say, UK is better than the three teams on this list and it really isn't close. (40-0 baby RollLaugh)

So, in short, I should put you down as one that disagrees with my opinions?

Definitely not butthurt. I don't disagree with all of your opinions. If UK returns those guys, then I would put UK preseason #1. I think it's closer than you think though. UK will not be far and away better than the field. They will be a top contender but that's about it.

 

[GE Nole]

Okay, but seriously when is the last time college hoops has seen a college lineup with as much length and athleticism at positions 1-5 as the potential FSU one for next year? Smallest guy is 6’5 and he was a top football recruit with big time athleticism.

 

[dukedevilz]

Okay, but seriously when is the last time college hoops has seen a college lineup with as much length and athleticism at positions 1-5 as the potential FSU one for next year? Smallest guy is 6’5 and he was a top football recruit with big time athleticism.

The '15 Kentucky team is probably the gold standard for length and athleticism. 6'6, 6'6, 6'10, 6'11, 7'0.

The '13 Syracuse team was a long team, too. Michael Carter-Williams, a 6'6 guy, was running the point. So 2 for 2 on Final Fours, at least.

Can't think of anyone specific off the top of my head from the past 5 years. Gonzaga's backcourt next year should feature guys that are 6'5, 6'5, and 6'7. Probably two 6'10 players in the frontcourt.

 

[kyjeff1]

Definitely not butthurt. I don't disagree with all of your opinions. If UK returns those guys, then I would put UK preseason #1. I think it's closer than you think though. UK will not be far and away better than the field. They will be a top contender but that's about it.

I get that and trust me, I know Virginia will have some good pieces, I just don't think the guys surrounding Hauser will be good enough to warrant such a high ranking.
Losing Diakete is a big blow. Seemed like he was your go to guy this year and you didn't appear to have all that much fire power after him.

I know Hauser is a hoss, but it's the other pieces around him than give me pause.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Duke has definitely done a good job of peaking in March and making the most of their draws. As we have seen with them and Kentucky, it takes a bit to get the freshmen all on one page, but when they get there it’s hard to beat.

I wouldn't say Duke has made the most of draws in that period, or done a good job of peaking in March, on average. They've won a few titles, and fallen on their faces almost every other year. In 2010, they were basically "last man standing" when everybody else choked.

Sure, I'll take multiple titles in a decade, but you can't say they've been consistently peaking at the right time.

 

[GE Nole]

The '15 Kentucky team is probably the gold standard for length and athleticism. 6'6, 6'6, 6'10, 6'11, 7'0.

The '13 Syracuse team was a long team, too. Michael Carter-Williams, a 6'6 guy, was running the point. So 2 for 2 on Final Fours, at least.

Can't think of anyone specific off the top of my head from the past 5 years. Gonzaga's backcourt next year should feature guys that are 6'5, 6'5, and 6'7. Probably two 6'10 players in the frontcourt.

You’re right about the 2015 UK team. Dang that was basically the Bucks playing college ball lol.

Syracuse is harder to compare because of their zone. They certainly had the length, but I’d be a bit more scared of a Leonard Hamilton in your face D than the 2-3.

 

[dukedevilz]

I wouldn't say Duke has made the most of draws in that period, or done a good job of peaking in March, on average. They've won a few titles, and fallen on their faces almost every other year. In 2010, they were basically "last man standing" when everybody else choked.

Sure, I'll take multiple titles in a decade, but you can't say they've been consistently peaking at the right time.

We've made it to the Sweet 16 more often than Kansas has in the past decade. Just as many regional finals. And more overall tournament wins.

And the 2010 was a heckuva team. Vastly underrated. They crushed the team that beat Kentucky. They beat the team that defeated Syracuse. They had a top 5 offense and defense. And they're the #8 KenPom team of all-time. Worthy of being a national champion, regardless of what some pundits might think.

 

[KUhawks34]

KU will be a top 5 team easily by years end. Guaranteed 1 seed. Mark my words

 

[jhmossy]

KU will be a top 5 team easily by years end. Guaranteed 1 seed. Mark my words

I hope UVA and KU get to meet up in the Wooden Legacy

https://espnevents.com/wooden-legacy/bracket/

 

[dukedevilz]

I hope UVA and KU get to meet up in the Wooden Legacy

https://espnevents.com/wooden-legacy/bracket/

Wow. Kansas, UVA, and UCLA in a four-team tournament. That's potentially three top 10 teams.

 

[KUhawks34]

Hopefully we play UCLA first. I imagine they’ll have Kansas and Virginia on opposite sides. Would love to see a UVA/KU matchup.

 

[Original_Irish]

Idk how good Clarke and Boston are from three. Maybe they're adequate shooters? That's a small sample size - and they have plenty of time to improve. Just thinking of Duke's 2019 team, and it was a struggle at times when teams packed the paint and we were forced to jack up threes. One or two lethal shooters could easily change the dynamics, so perhaps a moot point.

Sam Hauser was 2nd Team All-Big East last year. You know who else was on that 2nd Team? Kamar Baldwin, Naji Marshall, and Alpha Diallo. Anyone of those three guys easily could have made 1st Team All-ACC. And yes, I absolutely believe Hauser will be 1st Team All-ACC next year. Good chance he'll make one of the All-American teams. I expect UVA to consistently be in the top 5 next year. Defense is already there. Hauser will completely transform the stuttering offense.

Gonzaga can easily absorb the loss of Petrusev. They have Drew Timme, who honestly needs more playing time. He'll be a force next year. He's tough and physical, unlike Petrusev, who is very finesse. Anton Watson was a talented freshmen who had a season-ending injury. And Oumar Ballo sat out the year, as he was ruled academically ineligible. He was regarded as the best international prospect in the 2019 class... The backcourt should be very strong with Jalen Suggs, Joel Ayayi, and Corey Kispert. That has a chance of being the best backcourt in the country.

As far as Baylor, Bandoo's loss is not the least bit material. He was a role player. You could make more of an argument for Gillespie. Tristan Clark was one of the best players in the Big XII in 2019. Led the nation in FG%. Probably would have been at least 2nd Team All-Conference. He's been very rusty since returning from his injury. If he can return to form, I expect Baylor to be a top 5 team again. They're also bringing in a couple of 4-star recruits. They'll be more than fine.

Pretty much sums it up for me.

Gonzaga's Starters next Year:
PG: Suggs #9 overall recruit, top 3 for high school player of the year
SG: Joel Ayayi, fringe NBA guy. 10.6 ppg 6.3 rpg 3.2 apg
SF: Corey Kispert, fringe NBA guy. Julius Irving award finalist 14 ppg on 44% 3pt%
PF Drew Timme, Sophmore, top 40 recruit. 10 and 5 as a freshman. Future Pro
C Oumar Ballo, Top international prospect. In the under 19 World Cup he averaged 18 and 11 and took MALI to a silver medal.

Key Backups:
PF: Anton Watson, top 40 recruit last year. Coming off injury, might start at power forward.
SF: Julian Strawther, 59th ranked player in current class
SG: Dominik Harris 58th ranked player in current class
Pavel Zacharov, 89th ranked player in previous class

Expect them to grab up a key grad transfer to play backup point guard as well.

This team is going to be incredibly athletic and they are going to be a better defensive team than we have seen in the last few years. Probably not as good defensively as the 17 team but close.

 

[ExitFlagger]

LOL, do you know how many times we hear that every year?

It never works, if it did, Syracuse would have better records than they have had.

Plus, how a kid did in HS has very little bearing on how they will do in a college game.

But Clark and Boston are top 5 recruits. They're 6'7", long and really athletic, so they're going to live in the lane.

UK will still have shooters next year though. Juzang and Dontai Allen are really good shooters, Brooks showed his shooting ability late and honestly, I highly doubt Quickly is leaving UK. If he does come back, I don't see how anyone can tout a better roster.

UVA is losing Diaketa and they weren't really all that good this year. They bring in the 13th ranked class and Hauser. Keep in mind, Hauser's numbers aren't going to be what they were at Marquette. He'll be playing in a tougher league and with UVA's style of play, I think his stats will be way down.

Gonzaga is losing Petrusev, Tillie, Gilder and Woolridge. So they're bringing in a pg that’s ranked 9th, cool, but it seems to me like they're losing more than they're gaining. Maybe Petrusev doesn’t leave, he's only a sophomore, but the word on the street has been he's jumping.

So when I look at those two rosters, I don't get why they are rated so high.

Baylor is another head scratcher. They lose Bandoo and Gillespie.

If those are the three best teams next year, cbb is even more down than it was in 19/20.

You seriously think it's shocking that there's high expectation for Baylor? Because they lose a role player and a decent big man? They bring back their top three players plus one of the best defensive players in the country. Does any team bring back more production than that?

 

[ExitFlagger]

We've made it to the Sweet 16 more often than Kansas has in the past decade. Just as many regional finals. And more overall tournament wins.

And the 2010 was a heckuva team. Vastly underrated. They crushed the team that beat Kentucky. They beat the team that defeated Syracuse. They had a top 5 offense and defense. And they're the #8 KenPom team of all-time. Worthy of being a national champion, regardless of what some pundits might think.

Should 2010 even be included? That was 11 postseasons ago. Didn’t the decade start in 2011?

Regardless, no KU fan is bragging about consistently peaking in March during those years. But it’s also worth noting that Duke has had way more talent in that span. It’s all relative. For some of those teams, losing in the elite 8 or Sweet 16 was a pretty big failure. But there were also two first round losses and a 2nd round.

 

[Montana81]

I expect Boston to shoot the ball better in college. Much like Devin Booker, he’ll benefit from having better talent around him to draw attention away. He’ll have to be pickier about his shot selection. But he has god form.

I don’t know about Clarke. I can’t say I’ve seen a ton of him.

 

[dukedevilz]

Should 2010 even be included? That was 11 postseasons ago. Didn’t the decade start in 2011?

Regardless, no KU fan is bragging about consistently peaking in March during those years. But it’s also worth noting that Duke has had way more talent in that span. It’s all relative. For some of those teams, losing in the elite 8 or Sweet 16 was a pretty big failure. But there were also two first round losses and a 2nd round.

Yes, 2010 should be included. It's a part of the previous decade.

In the last decade, KU has been a #1 seed six times and a #2 seed three times. Yet, you only made it to the second weekend 6 times. Duke made it to the second weekend seven times - and did so with a lower seed average than KU. If they performed according to their seeds, KU would have had 35 wins. Duke would had 32. KU ended up -11 (24 wins), and Duke was -6 (26 wins). Both schools choked in certain regards, but it's hard to argue that Duke choked more than KU.

And I never said peaked in March. I only claimed that we had the second most tournament wins from the past decade, which is accurate.

 

[hawkit3113]

Next year would be a good year to schedule UK, Duke, and UVA

 

[GE Nole]

Pretty much sums it up for me.

Gonzaga's Starters next Year:
PG: Suggs #9 overall recruit, top 3 for high school player of the year
SG: Joel Ayayi, fringe NBA guy. 10.6 ppg 6.3 rpg 3.2 apg
SF: Corey Kispert, fringe NBA guy. Julius Irving award finalist 14 ppg on 44% 3pt%
PF Drew Timme, Sophmore, top 40 recruit. 10 and 5 as a freshman. Future Pro
C Oumar Ballo, Top international prospect. In the under 19 World Cup he averaged 18 and 11 and took MALI to a silver medal.

Key Backups:
PF: Anton Watson, top 40 recruit last year. Coming off injury, might start at power forward.
SF: Julian Strawther, 59th ranked player in current class
SG: Dominik Harris 58th ranked player in current class
Pavel Zacharov, 89th ranked player in previous class

Expect them to grab up a key grad transfer to play backup point guard as well.

This team is going to be incredibly athletic and they are going to be a better defensive team than we have seen in the last few years. Probably not as good defensively as the 17 team but close.

Yeah, Zags will be freaking loaded.

 

[dukedevilz]

Expect them to grab up a key grad transfer to play backup point guard as well.

This team is going to be incredibly athletic and they are going to be a better defensive team than we have seen in the last few years. Probably not as good defensively as the 17 team but close.

No chance Brock Ravet comes back, right? Haven't heard anything about him officially transferring. He'd be a very suitable backup.

 

[dukedevilz]

Next year would be a good year to schedule UK, Duke, and UVA

Duke and Iowa in the Big Ten Challenge next season. The Duke kids are dying to get revenge from that scrimmage.

 

[hawkit3113]

Duke and Iowa in the Big Ten Challenge next season. The Duke kids are dying to get revenge from that scrimmage.

Indeed. They were dejected from that loss. They were shocked at how good Garza was.

 

[Original_Irish]

No chance Brock Ravet comes back, right? Haven't heard anything about him officially transferring. He'd be a very suitable backup.

I think it is unlikely that he comes back.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Yes, 2010 should be included. It's a part of the previous decade.

In the last decade, KU has been a #1 seed six times and a #2 seed three times. Yet, you only made it to the second weekend 6 times. Duke made it to the second weekend seven times - and did so with a lower seed average than KU. If they performed according to their seeds, KU would have had 35 wins. Duke would had 32. KU ended up -11 (24 wins), and Duke was -6 (26 wins). Both schools choked in certain regards, but it's hard to argue that Duke choked more than KU.

And I never said peaked in March. I only claimed that we had the second most tournament wins from the past decade, which is accurate.

I doubt there's a substantial difference in seeding, but regardless, that doesn't tell all in terms of talent level. I think just about anyone would agree that the 2018 Duke roster was much more talented than KU's, despite the fact that KU was a 1 and Duke a 2. KU was the dog in that matchup.

Duke's had several of their most talented teams of all time in that span, and KU has had several of its least talented teams of the last 40 years.

I would say it was impressive for KU to claim several of those seeds. Duke was often seeded lower than expected. That shouldn't benefit their argument.

Let's also not forget that some relatively talented players did not play in the tourney. Losing Embiid completely wrecked their chances in 2014. That team didn't deserve a 2 seed at that point. Azubuike missed two tourneys (now three). We've seen the difference that his presence makes. Not to mention talented players like Preston, Alexander, Vick, etc who either never played or missed the tourney.

 

[Demarcus Kidd-Miller]

You’re right about the 2015 UK team. Dang that was basically the Bucks playing college ball lol.

Pretty sure we were bigger than every NBA team except one that year. It was one of those weird facts they mentioned every single game.

 

[GE Nole]

Pretty sure we were bigger than every NBA team except one that year. It was one of those weird facts they mentioned every single game.

FSU has had a couple teams big like that too. Matter of fact, I just looked and UK was 79.3 inches for average height in 2015 and FSU was 79.2

But it’s one thing to be big. It’s another to be big AND super athletic. The 2015 UK team obviously was. Next year FSU would be too if the two NBA guys come back.

 

[dragonhawk1855]

Garza is coming back. that made a lot of Hawk fans happy.

 

[kyjeff1]

You seriously think it's shocking that there's high expectation for Baylor? Because they lose a role player and a decent big man? They bring back their top three players plus one of the best defensive players in the country. Does any team bring back more production than that?

Next year won’t be as down across the board as it was this year and losing Gillispie is a big blow. He made this seasons team go. Take him away and they aren't anywhere near the same team.
I'm sure they'll adjust, but their lack of height and length will, again, put them at a disadvantage against a lot of teams. That was a problem for them that showed up at the end of this year.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Next year won’t be as down across the board as it was this year and losing Gillispie is a big blow. He made this seasons team go. Take him away and they aren't anywhere near the same team.
I'm sure they'll adjust, but their lack of height and length will, again, put them at a disadvantage against a lot of teams. That was a problem for them that showed up at the end of this year.

The trio of guards and Vital made the team go, and they're all returning. I'm pretty sure you'd be excited if you had those four players coming back.

 

[dragonhawk1855]

Duke and Iowa in the Big Ten Challenge next season. The Duke kids are dying to get revenge from that scrimmage.

i would really like that matchup but it will never happen as Iowa will get the home court in the ACC/BT Challenge and Duke does not play road games.

oh by the by the last time they played Iowa in Carver Iowa won. that Duke team had Christian L.

 

[kyjeff1]

The trio of guards and Vital made the team go, and they're all returning. I'm pretty sure you'd be excited if you had those four players coming back.

I am not saying they won't be good

 

[ExitFlagger]

Just because I'm in a lull while working from home, I looked up the results for KU and Duke over the last 10 years. Starting ranking, ending ranking, tourney result.

Duke
2011: 1/3 Sweet 16
2012: 6/8 1st round
2013: 8/6 Elite 8
2014: 4/8 1st round
2015: 4/4 Nat'l Champions
2016: 5/19 Sweet 16
2017: 1/7 2nd round
2018: 1/9 Elite 8
2019: 4/1 Elite 8
2020: 4/10 N/A

KU
2011: 7/2 Elite 8
2012: 13/6 Nat'l Runner-up
2013: 7/3 Sweet 16
2014: 5/10 2nd round
2015: 5/10 2nd round
2016: 4/1 Elite 8
2017: 3/3 Elite 8
2018: 4/4 Final 4
2019: 1/17 2nd round
2020: 3/1 N/A

I would trade results just for the championship, but Duke has been pretty disappointing in the rest of that period. From preseason #1 to Sweet 16 and 2nd round losses, from preseason #4 to a 1st round loss, preseason #6 to first round loss. Only finished with the same or higher ranking three times.

KU has disappointed overall in the tourney in that span, but they have a better claim to peaking at the right time. 7 times they finished with the same or higher ranking. In the three years that they didn't. they had injuries to several really good players (which are also the three years with really disappointing tourney results).

Not sure about Duke's injury history in that period, but I don't remember them entering the tourney multiple times without players of Embiid's or Azubuike's caliber.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I am not saying they won't be good

You said it's a head scratcher. When's the last time a top team returned that much and wasn't ranked in the top 5? It would be head-scratching if they weren't.

 

[dukedevilz]

I doubt there's a substantial difference in seeding, but regardless, that doesn't tell all in terms of talent level. I think just about anyone would agree that the 2018 Duke roster was much more talented than KU's, despite the fact that KU was a 1 and Duke a 2. KU was the dog in that matchup.

Duke's had several of their most talented teams of all time in that span, and KU has had several of its least talented teams of the last 40 years.

I would say it was impressive for KU to claim several of those seeds. Duke was often seeded lower than expected. That shouldn't benefit their argument.

Let's also not forget that some relatively talented players did not play in the tourney. Losing Embiid completely wrecked their chances in 2014. That team didn't deserve a 2 seed at that point. Azubuike missed two tourneys (now three). We've seen the difference that his presence makes. Not to mention talented players like Preston, Alexander, Vick, etc who either never played or missed the tourney.

Most talented teams? Yikes. No. The bulk of our most talented teams were in between 86-94 and 98-04. The 2015 and 2019 could qualify, but no one else.

And guess what? Everyone has injuries. Duke had significant injuries in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2019.

The 2018 was talented, but the backcourt was nothing special. And the depth was even worse.

 

[GE Nole]

Just because I'm in a lull while working from home, I looked up the results for KU and Duke over the last 10 years. Starting ranking, ending ranking, tourney result.

Duke
2011: 1/3 Sweet 16
2012: 6/8 1st round
2013: 8/6 Elite 8
2014: 4/8 1st round
2015: 4/4 Nat'l Champions
2016: 5/19 Sweet 16
2017: 1/7 2nd round
2018: 1/9 Elite 8
2019: 4/1 Elite 8
2020: 4/10 N/A

KU
2011: 7/2 Elite 8
2012: 13/6 Nat'l Runner-up
2013: 7/3 Sweet 16
2014: 5/10 2nd round
2015: 5/10 2nd round
2016: 4/1 Elite 8
2017: 3/3 Elite 8
2018: 4/4 Final 4
2019: 1/17 2nd round
2020: 3/1 N/A

I would trade results just for the championship, but Duke has been pretty disappointing in the rest of that period. From preseason #1 to Sweet 16 and 2nd round losses, from preseason #4 to a 1st round loss, preseason #6 to first round loss. Only finished with the same or higher ranking three times.

KU has disappointed overall in the tourney in that span, but they have a better claim to peaking at the right time. 7 times they finished with the same or higher ranking. In the three years that they didn't. they had injuries to several really good players (which are also the three years with really disappointing tourney results).

Not sure about Duke's injury history in that period, but I don't remember them entering the tourney multiple times without players of Embiid's or Azubuike's caliber.

Both have 3 years not making it beyond the first weekend. Both have three Elite 8 finishes. Kansas with one more Final Four, but Duke has the Natty.

Seems pretty even to me. But if you do the last 10 tourneys, Duke adds another Natty.

 

[kyjeff1]

You said it's a head scratcher. When's the last time a top team returned that much and wasn't ranked in the top 5? It would be head-scratching if they weren't.

It is a head scratcher.
Look, I get it, they're a BIG12 team and they won in your house this year, but there is a reason they are returning most of their players. If they were extremely talented, had measurables, incredible athletesism or bigtime upside, they wouldn't be inked in to return to Baylor.

That tells me that they're experienced, but not talented enough to even give the NBA a look.

On top of that, coaching matters, Dean Prichard hasn't accomplished anything when it mattered most.

If UK returns Montgomery and Quickly, there is no way in hell I would put Baylor, UVA or Gonzaga ahead of them. I'm sure you'll disagree.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Most talented teams? Yikes. No. The bulk of our most talented teams were in between 86-94 and 98-04. The 2015 and 2019 could qualify, but no one else.

And guess what? Everyone has injuries. Duke had significant injuries in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2019.

The 2018 was talented, but the backcourt was nothing special. And the depth was even worse.

Who was Duke missing in the tourney in those years that had the impact of Embiid or Azubuike 2X?

And I wasn't saying that they were the most talented Duke teams. Just that they're pretty high on the list.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Both have 3 years not making it beyond the first weekend. Both have three Elite 8 finishes. Kansas with one more Final Four, but Duke has the Natty.

Seems pretty even to me. But if you do the last 10 tourneys, Duke adds another Natty.

But not even in terms of meeting preseason expectation or peaking at the right time. Which was the discussion.

 

[jwardelt]

Most talented teams? Yikes. No. The bulk of our most talented teams were in between 86-94 and 98-04. The 2015 and 2019 could qualify, but no one else.

And guess what? Everyone has injuries. Duke had significant injuries in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2019.

The 2018 was talented, but the backcourt was nothing special. And the depth was even worse.

How many burger boyz does K need to be successful?

 

[ExitFlagger]

It is a head scratcher.
Look, I get it, they're a BIG12 team and they won in your house this year, but there is a reason they are returning most of their players. If they were extremely talented, had measurables, incredible athletesism or bigtime upside, they wouldn't be inked in to return to Baylor.

That tells me that they're experienced, but not talented enough to even give the NBA a look.

On top of that, coaching matters, Dean Prichard hasn't accomplished anything when it mattered most.

If UK returns Montgomery and Quickly, there is no way in hell I would put Baylor, UVA or Gonzaga ahead of them. I'm sure you'll disagree.

Right....it must be because they're in the Big 12. Has nothing to do with the fact that they were clearly a standout team this season. The other posters and people who are projecting them highly must be Big 12-biased too.

Who cares about these players' pro potential or draft stock? We're talking about college production. And those are very solid college players. Do you think that Dotson and Azubuike being fringe first rounders makes them less capable than players projected higher? If they were to surprise and return (not likely, but it's not as if they're guaranteed to be drafted), would you say "there's a reason they're returning?"

If measurables, athleticism, and upside were all that mattered, Kentucky would dominate every year.

Btw, why's it always assumed that players like Montgomery will make a huge leap, but other teams' players won't?

 

[dragonhawk1855]

How many burger boyz does K need to be successful?

don't you mean Bid Macks?