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As of Today, Rank Your Top 5 Teams Most Likely to Win the Tourney

Your original take was that Purdue supposedly had teams that were supposed to make the final four. Now it's simply that Purdue hasn't done more because South Carolina did.

Again, if your only criteria is what conference has had more championships then that's all you have in your favor. The B10 is better in pretty much every other metric. I'm not the one that's butthurt over this. You're the one that can't accept the facts. FACTS, like advanced metrics. Things that get used at the professional level.

If my use of Illinios is that bothersome for you then I'll pick other teams.

Texas is 25 with a 13-10 record
Florida is 37 with a 12-10 record
Creighton 49 with a 13-10 record
and so on...

I specifically DIDN'T pick B10 teams for your sake since you think I'm being a "homer". All of those teams records would suggest they aren't very good, but all are considered top 50 teams per advanced metrics.
You want to talk metrics, but Illinois is rated 68th on KenPom. That's because they're schedule isn't as difficult as Texas' schedule or Creighton's schedule.
I have news for you, I don't care what metrics you are looking at, Illinois is not good. 68th in KenPom is not good.
They have the 88th rated offense and the 73rd rated defense. They're garbage.
 
I'm not reading all the way back ITT to find out why someone has brought up Illinois. I haven't heard of them since 2005 lol
I'll catch you up. They were talking about MSU and Kentucky and who would have a better tournament resume. Someone pointed out MSU has 3 more quad 1 wins than Kentucky. Illinois came in as a reason why MSU wasn't going to finish well because MSU lost to Illinois. I simply pointed out that Illinois is better than their record suggests being rated 71 per Kenpom. People lost their F'ing minds over that.

That about sums it up.
 
You want to talk metrics, but Illinois is rated 68th on KenPom. That's because they're schedule isn't as difficult as Texas' schedule or Creighton's schedule.
I have news for you, I don't care what metrics you are looking at, Illinois is not good. 68th in KenPom is not good.
They have the 88th rated offense and the 73rd rated defense. They're garbage.
Your numbers are all wrong, but ok, lol.

Let me put it this way, how many teams will be a quad 2 win/loss that has an 8-15 record?
 
This reminds me of past discussions I’ve had with Bert. He seems to think that the SEC has been a better basketball conference than the Big 12 going back the last 15 years or so because of the 3 titles and also somehow because of South Carolina. Who cares about the fact that the Big 12 has been considerably tougher almost every year when looking at advanced stats, the title count is 3-1 and that’s the only stat you should use.
 
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I'll catch you up. They were talking about MSU and Kentucky and who would have a better tournament resume. Someone pointed out MSU has 3 more quad 1 wins than Kentucky. Illinois came in as a reason why MSU wasn't going to finish well because MSU lost to Illinois. I simply pointed out that Illinois is better than their record suggests being rated 71 per Kenpom. People lost their F'ing minds over that.

That about sums it up.
Gotcha. I know nothing about Illinois so I won't get into that. I would say right now UK's resume looks better than MSU's but its pretty damn close. MSU has dropped 3 in a row, 2 of which are pretty questionable.
 
Gotcha. I know nothing about Illinois so I won't get into that. I would say right now UK's resume looks better than MSU's but its pretty damn close. MSU has dropped 3 in a row, 2 of which are pretty questionable.
Yes, I would agree. When I entered this conversation, I wasn't aware MSU lost to Illinois.
 
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1) why are we cherry picking 10 years? Got to 12 years and the SEC has 3 titles

2) 10-12 tournament teams? 8 or 9 is about as high as you're going to get for legit tourney teams and even that is extreme. But I don't get why that matters. Having 2 legit FF threats is better than what most conferences have. The 7th, 8th, 9th + teams aren't really a threat to do anything.

3) okay, at the end of your post you said that you feel I'm sometimes reading a different post than what you are reading. Then I look at your #3. You jumped in the middle of a conversation about the BIG and the SEC and defended the BIG10. But then you're saying the BIG isn't a top tier conference??? Who is then? The ACC and that's it? You're not going to say the BIG12 is.....or are you?
How would you ranked the power 5 + the BIG East?

My rankings:
-ACC
BIG EAST
SEC/BIG10/BIG12


PAC12

I put the SEC, BIG10 and BIG12 together because it depends on the criteria you use, all three have Ave warts and all three have good arguments for being better than the other.
I know BIG10 and BIG12 fans don't like it, but titles matter .

I wasn't defending the Big 10. I was saying that the reason people speak about the SEC as a second/third tier conference is because it is a second/third tier conference. And I chose 10 years because that's about how long it's been that way. Obviously in the Nolan Richardson days the SEC was very different. But here in the 2010s, that hasn't been the case. None of the kids in college today care what happened 15 years ago.

Not sure why you call it P5 + Big East. This isn't football. Over the last 10 years, I'd rank the conferences as:

1. ACC
2. Big East

gap

3a. SEC
3b. Big 10
3c. Big 12
6. Pac 12
7. AAC
8. A-10
9. WCC
 
I didn't say they were a tournament team. All I'm saying is that the 8-15 record doesn't tell the story of how good they really are.

Yes it does. See if the committee thinks they'll be in regardless of metrics. If your eyes can't tell you those teams are bad you'd be better off going to math class than watching basketball.
 
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I just don't understand how they became the subject? I think Purdue has a pretty good team this season but I wouldn't have them in my top 5 at all.

FWIW, no one had them in their top 5.

The thread title was name the 5 teams you think would be most likely to make a Final Four run. Making a Final Four run is different from being a top 5 team. One is based on having the pieces that typically make a team successful in a single elimination tourney in March, and the other is based on accomplishment to date.

Still, no one listed Purdue in their 5 most likely teams. However, I did throw Purdue out there as a "next in line" team after my initial 5. KYjeff took that one statement and ran with it for like 6 pages, going on and on about how it's shocking to see Purdue on someone's top 5 list (they weren't). Now a Purdue fan has jumped in to defend his team, though even he said Purdue is more likely an Elite 8 team than a Final Four team.

That just about covers it.
 
FWIW, no one had them in their top 5.

The thread title was name the 5 teams you think would be most likely to make a Final Four run. Making a Final Four run is different from being a top 5 team. One is based on having the pieces that typically make a team successful in a single elimination tourney in March, and the other is based on accomplishment to date.

Still, no one listed Purdue in their 5 most likely teams. However, I did throw Purdue out there as a "next in line" team after my initial 5. KYjeff took that one statement and ran with it for like 6 pages, going on and on about how it's shocking to see Purdue on someone's top 5 list (they weren't). Now a Purdue fan has jumped in to defend his team, though even he said Purdue is more likely an Elite 8 team than a Final Four team.

That just about covers it.
Gotcha. Purdue could make a run, no doubt. I don't know enough about them to consider them in that next tier of teams after the clear 6 or 7. But I don't doubt they are at all.
 
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I wasn't defending the Big 10. I was saying that the reason people speak about the SEC as a second/third tier conference is because it is a second/third tier conference. And I chose 10 years because that's about how long it's been that way. Obviously in the Nolan Richardson days the SEC was very different. But here in the 2010s, that hasn't been the case. None of the kids in college today care what happened 15 years ago.

Not sure why you call it P5 + Big East. This isn't football. Over the last 10 years, I'd rank the conferences as:

1. ACC
2. Big East

gap

3a. SEC
3b. Big 10
3c. Big 12
6. Pac 12
7. AAC
8. A-10
9. WCC
I'll agree with those rankings.
 
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Yes it does. See if the committee thinks they'll be in regardless of metrics. If your eyes can't tell you those teams are bad you'd be better off going to math class than watching basketball.
Just curious, how many games have you watched Illinios?
 
FWIW, no one had them in their top 5.

The thread title was name the 5 teams you think would be most likely to make a Final Four run. Making a Final Four run is different from being a top 5 team. One is based on having the pieces that typically make a team successful in a single elimination tourney in March, and the other is based on accomplishment to date.

Still, no one listed Purdue in their 5 most likely teams. However, I did throw Purdue out there as a "next in line" team after my initial 5. KYjeff took that one statement and ran with it for like 6 pages, going on and on about how it's shocking to see Purdue on someone's top 5 list (they weren't). Now a Purdue fan has jumped in to defend his team, though even he said Purdue is more likely an Elite 8 team than a Final Four team.

That just about covers it.
Not true, you and I went back and forth about Purdue and UNC in a few posts that spanned a few pages, but lets not act like I have 50 posts to you about Purdue.

As far as this latest discussion about Purdue, Illinois and the BIG10, it has nothing to do with the discussion you and I had at the beginning of this thread. It has everything to do with the Purdue fan that is a huge BIG10/Purdue homer and won't let it go.

I stated my opinions. Illinois is 8-15 for a reason. Purdue is a decent team, but until they accomplish something in the tournament Ihm not going to buy into them, they've had many teams that were better than this one that came up way short.
Lastly, I firmly believe the SEC is better than the BIG10 this year based on the top end teams and Michigan State sliding due to a season ending injury
 
LOL, I think you need to refresh the Kenpom page and look at what you posed. It's semantics, sure, but the numbers you wrote are not correct.
Uh, okay, I just refreshed it and I see where Illinois slipped from 68th to 71st. Care to keep arguing?

You have to be kidding me with this Illinois crap. They suck.

I mean, Northwestern is 66th, let me guess, they're better than that?

What a joke.
 
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One. But I can tell you all this strength of schedule stuff means squat if you can't beat any of them. 15 losses the first week of February is by definition, a bad team.
Mmmhmm, thanks for joining the conversation with no eye test data let alone you don't want to use advance metrics. I'm sure your comments will be very helpful.
 
Uh, okay, I just refreshed it and I see where Illinois slipped from 68th to 71st. Care to keep arguing?

You have to be kidding me with this Illinois crap. They suck.

I mean, Northwestern is 66th, let me guess, they're better than that?

What a joke.
LOL, dude you are struggling with this aren't you?

First off, teams move up and down all the time even if they haven't played. It's because the teams around them either improved or got worse.

2nd, what's the point of bringing up Northwestern? You didn't even mention their record, just that they are 66th via Kenpom. Why would I try to say Northwestern is better than 66th? This isn't anywhere close to what we've been talking about at all which suggests you have no idea what I've been trying to convey.

The ENTIRE point of this whole conversation is that you were basing your opinion of Illinios on their 8-15 record. My point is that the record doesn't show how good they really are. NOT THAT THEY ARE GOOD, BUT BETTER THAN THEIR RECORD AS ADVANCED METRICS SUGGESTS. Jesus, it's ok to say a team is better than their record without conflating it to mean said team is GOOD.
 
LOL, dude you are struggling with this aren't you?

First off, teams move up and down all the time even if they haven't played. It's because the teams around them either improved or got worse.

2nd, what's the point of bringing up Northwestern? You didn't even mention their record, just that they are 66th via Kenpom. Why would I try to say Northwestern is better than 66th? This isn't anywhere close to what we've been talking about at all which suggests you have no idea what I've been trying to convey.

The ENTIRE point of this whole conversation is that you were basing your opinion of Illinios on their 8-15 record. My point is that the record doesn't show how good they really are. NOT THAT THEY ARE GOOD, BUT BETTER THAN THEIR RECORD AS ADVANCED METRICS SUGGESTS. Jesus, it's ok to say a team is better than their record without conflating it to mean said team is GOOD.
Wow, what the heck are you looking at?

Kenpom has Illinois rated at 71st. They now have their adjusted Offense is 85th, their adjusted Defense is 77th. Tell me what you are seeing. I've refreshed twice now.

Look, Illinois is literally the 71st best team in the country. They are friggin' 8-15 for crying out loud. They are not better than what I think, because I think they are 8 and 15 and ranked 71st in the country. It's that simple.

If you don't understand why I brought up Northwestern then I can't help you. You just don't get it.
 
Wow, what the heck are you looking at?

Kenpom has Illinois rated at 71st. They now have their adjusted Offense is 85th, their adjusted Defense is 77th. Tell me what you are seeing. I've refreshed twice now.

Look, Illinois is literally the 71st best team in the country. They are friggin' 8-15 for crying out loud. They are not better than what I think, because I think they are 8 and 15 and ranked 71st in the country. It's that simple.

If you don't understand why I brought up Northwestern then I can't help you. You just don't get it.
LOL, yeah I'm the one that isn't getting it. Right...

What are the records of the teams that are 5 spots higher and lower than Illinois. Maybe this will help you understand.
 
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This reminds me of past discussions I’ve had with Bert. He seems to think that the SEC has been a better basketball conference than the Big 12 going back the last 15 years or so because of the 3 titles and also somehow because of South Carolina. Who cares about the fact that the Big 12 has been considerably tougher almost every year when looking at advanced stats, the title count is 3-1 and that’s the only stat you should use.
Historically the SEC is by far a better basketball conference than the Big 12, the last 5 years, the last 10 years, the last 20 years the last 30 or 40 years. You pick the time.

The Big 12 is considered tough until they have to play in the NCAA and they don't do shit.

Dang.
 
Mmmhmm, thanks for joining the conversation with no eye test data let alone you don't want to use advance metrics. I'm sure your comments will be very helpful.

You NEED someone to tell you that an 8-15 basketball team is a bad team?? Your comments, on the other hand, have been VERY enlightening.
 
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LOL, yeah I'm the one that isn't getting it. Right...

What are the records of the teams that are 5 spots higher and lower than Illinois. Maybe this will help you understand.
I've told you what I'm seeing in KenPom for Illinois, I've stated several times that they slid from the 68th position to the 71st position.

You are saying that if incorrect, but you haven't posted what you THINK their rating is.

Please do us all a favor and tell us what you are seeing.
 
Just curious, how many games have you watched Illinios?
Why would anyone want to waste their time watching the 71st ranked team more than once?

How about this, how many times have you watched Auburn play?

How many Vanderbilt games have you seen?

How many Alabama games have you watched?

You seem to only watch BIG10 games, you obviously haven't watched too many non BIG10 games because you have no earthly idea what you're talking about if you think Illinois is any good.
 
You NEED someone to tell you that an 8-15 basketball team is a bad team?? Your comments, on the other hand, have been VERY enlightening.
Your an idiot. I'm usually more cordial but I don't feel good and don't feel like dealing with you.
 
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I've told you what I'm seeing in KenPom for Illinois, I've stated several times that they slid from the 68th position to the 71st position.

You are saying that if incorrect, but you haven't posted what you THINK their rating is.

Please do us all a favor and tell us what you are seeing.
Dude, for the umpteenth time. All I have ever been trying to say is that a team that has an 8-15 record would typically be considered a lower 50% of the NCAA at a minimum. Yet somehow advanced metrics still has them rated in the top 20.5% out of 347 NCAA teams. Which again, would suggest that they are better, not good, but better than their record suggests. That has been my point this entire time. Again, look at the team records that are around Illinois.

(updated Kenpom)
64 Fresno St 16-6
65 Northwestern 12-10
66 Seton Hall 13-9
67 Temple 17-6
68 Vermont 18-5
69 Illinois 8-15
70 Arizona 14-9
71 Arizona St 15-7
72 Davidson 17-5
73 Furman 19-5
74 Pitt 12-11

Illinois at 8-15 is considered better than Arizona and Arizona St at this point. This may not be reality, but again, this is what advanced metrics thinks of this Illinois team. By my eye, I feel like they look better than their record BUT still not good.
 
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Why would anyone want to waste their time watching the 71st ranked team more than once?

How about this, how many times have you watched Auburn play?

How many Vanderbilt games have you seen?

How many Alabama games have you watched?

You seem to only watch BIG10 games, you obviously haven't watched too many non BIG10 games because you have no earthly idea what you're talking about if you think Illinois is any good.
Out of anything I have written, what gives you the impression I don't watch other games. We haven't talked about those other teams at all. You're reaching here.
 
Dude, for the umpteenth time. All I have ever been trying to say is that a team that has an 8-15 record would typically be considered a lower 50% of the NCAA at a minimum. Yet somehow advanced metrics still has them rated in the top 20.5% out of 347 NCAA teams. Which again, would suggest that they are better, not good, but better than their record suggests. That has been my point this entire time. Again, look at the team records that are around Illinois.

(updated Kenpom)
64 Fresno St 16-6
65 Northwestern 12-10
66 Seton Hall 13-9
67 Temple 17-6
68 Vermont 18-5
69 Illinois 8-15
70 Arizona 14-9
71 Arizona St 15-7
72 Davidson 17-5
73 Furman 19-5
74 Pitt 12-11

Illinois at 8-15 is considered better than Arizona and Arizona St at this point. This may not be reality, but again, this is what advanced metrics thinks of this Illinois team. By my eye, I feel like they look better than their record BUT still not good.
And I said multiple times that I get that, but they're 8-15. The reason they are grouped with teams that have much better records is because those other teams have played incredibly easy schedules. That's it, we all get that.

Illinois is still a garbage team. They beat a reeling Michigan State team at home. Michigan State turned around and lost to Indiana at home. Same Indiana team that got dominated in Ass Hall by Iowa. Iowa is a good team, but IU and Illinois suck.

Lastly, you said "Illinois is better than YOU think". Meaning, you are saying you know me and how I think. But you don't know me and no, they're not a better basketball team than I think. They simply aren't. They are less than mediocre and have been for a long time.
 
Out of anything I have written, what gives you the impression I don't watch other games. We haven't talked about those other teams at all. You're reaching here.
Because all you want to do is pump BIG10 teams. You're pumping Indiana and Illinois and saying they're good teams.

If you think Indiana and Illinois are good teams, it tells me you are only watching BIG10 games. Most casual fans only watch bball when their teams are playing, they don't watch anything beyond that.

Me? I am a college basketball but. If Northwestern Louisiana state school of the blind and hearing impaired was playing the Southeastern veterinary school of snow leopard grooming, I would watch every damn second of it and probably only leave my chair to get another glass of bourbon or drain the lizard.

To me, it's very obvious that you only watch BIG10 games.

You're the dude that hasn't left his neighborhood in his 50 years on Earth. You don't even know that there is a huge hole somewhere in Arizona, or that they make buildings taller than 3 stories. That's how I picture you.
 
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