As of Today, Rank Your Top 5 Teams Most Likely to Win the Tourney

[sgrooms]

Its okay to say Duke is really good. It doesn't make you any less of a Kentucky fan or anything. I think this Duke team is definitely better than we were in 2010. 2015 Kentucky is the ultimate "best team doesn't win" argument, but this year Duke isn't as good as they were.

I love our team and think we have a great chance to cut some nets. But if we play Duke, both teams at their best, we ain't winning that game.

It's pretty freaking close.

The 2015 UK team ended the season with the highest ever efficiency margin per KenPom, with a +36.91. The next highest ever is 2008 Kansas with +35.21. This Duke team is currently at +36.44.

In 2010: Duke +33.29. Kansas +31.85. Syracuse +27.62. Kentucky +26.54. I think its fair to say this Duke team is definitely better than 2010 Kentucky, and awfully close to 2015 Kentucky. We'll see how things shake out.

 

[JimboBBN]

It's pretty freaking close.

The 2015 UK team ended the season with the highest ever efficiency margin per KenPom, with a +36.91. The next highest ever is 2008 Kansas with +35.21. This Duke team is currently at +36.44.

In 2010: Duke +33.29. Kansas +31.85. Syracuse +27.62. Kentucky +26.54. I think its fair to say this Duke team is definitely better than 2010 Kentucky, and awfully close to 2015 Kentucky. We'll see how things shake out.

Agree with your post completely. I have never claimed our 2010 team was great. They had such an obvious weakness.

I really like this years Duke team. It’s close, but yea I’d still take 2015 UK

 

[Wildcat-in-STL]

1. Duke
2. Duke
3. Duke
4. Vegas by screwing Duke over not wanting to lose money
5. Duke

If anyone else besides Duke wins the NCAAT then K should be so embarassed of failure that he should retire immediately.

 

[sgrooms]

Agree with your post completely. I have never claimed our 2010 team was great. They had such an obvious weakness.

I really like this years Duke team. It’s close, but yea I’d still take 2015 UK

If Duke can start playing with some consistency, I think they have a chance to end up better than 2015 Kentucky in most people's eyes. Obviously no matter what, they won't have done it all season (almost) like Kentucky did, but 15+ games to go.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

If Duke can start playing with some consistency, I think they have a chance to end up better than 2015 Kentucky in most people's eyes. Obviously no matter what, they won't have done it all season (almost) like Kentucky did, but 15+ games to go.

Duke can still tie the all time record of 38 wins, and if they win the title they'll match the '12 UK team accomplishments. No hiccups allowed from here on out.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Duke can still tie the all time record of 38 wins, and if they win the title they'll match the '12 UK team accomplishments. No hiccups allowed from here on out.

Still on the table.

 

[sgrooms]

Still on the table.

Your jinx almost worked.

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

unc has Roy Williams. Coaching experience is as important as player experience. I don't know how far unc can go in the tournament, but they share the ball very well and they are an elite rebounding team. When they are making their shots, they can beat anyone. Not sure why it is so outlandish to give them a fighter's chance. I don't know anything about Purdue other than I would never bet on them in March.

I would go, in no particular order:

Duke
Kentucky
Michigan State
Michigan
Virginia

Anyone care to revise their lists?

I think I will make one change. Throw unc in their in place of MSU.

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

Stupid double post.

 

[sgrooms]

I get that Michigan got an easy region, but I just don't see a championship contender in that team. Not sure who I'd replace them with, though.

 

[JimboBBN]

I’m not gonna go through and find where I make my picks. At this point I go

Duke
Kentucky
Gonzaga
Tennessee
North Carolina

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

You talking about as a program or as a coach?

Dez, you're trying to discuss with a guy that loathes the sec. He won't pick an SEC team to get there lol

 

[GE Nole]

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Virginia
5. UNC

Waiting on deck: Gonzaga and Purdue

I'm taking Michigan State out because they are matched up with Duke. I'll go with:

1. Duke
2. Virginia
3. UNC
4. Texas Tech
5. Kentucky (if PJ is healthy)

Honorable mention are Michigan, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Purdue, FSU, and Tennessee. Basically, I have no clue in the West.

 

[oldsports_]

1. Duke
2. Duke
3. Duke
4. Vegas by screwing Duke over not wanting to lose money
5. Duke

If anyone else besides Duke wins the NCAAT then K should be so embarassed of failure that he should retire immediately.

 

[kdavid45]

Yep, KenPom #7 / NET #11 Purdue.

As well as 7 other Quad 1 wins.

Point guard play is paramount in the tourney and MSU has a stud. With Ward getting back into the fold and a few players (Goins and McQuaid) peaking, I like this team. Tillman (sophomore) also improved over the year due to extended minutes from Ward being out. Our freshman Henry is also playing his best basketball now and is someone who can lock down a teams best offensive weapon.

 

[sgrooms]

Interesting piece from the article below:

"In each of the past five years the Final Four team to come from Virginia's bracket has been seeded seventh or worse. In four of those five years, the Cavaliers were seeded a No. 1 or 2 ... which is again the case this year. In two of these years (2015, 2016) UVA lost to the team that reached the Final Four. Will Virginia finally perform up to its seed? If not, which surprise team would you pick to come out of the South region?"

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ch-madness-bracket-facts-2019-ncaa-tournament

 

[jhmossy]

Interesting piece from the article below:

"In each of the past five years the Final Four team to come from Virginia's bracket has been seeded seventh or worse. In four of those five years, the Cavaliers were seeded a No. 1 or 2 ... which is again the case this year. In two of these years (2015, 2016) UVA lost to the team that reached the Final Four. Will Virginia finally perform up to its seed? If not, which surprise team would you pick to come out of the South region?"

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ch-madness-bracket-facts-2019-ncaa-tournament

Seems like a lot of teams underperforming in our region. Not just UVA

 

[Boilermaker03]

Interesting piece from the article below:

"In each of the past five years the Final Four team to come from Virginia's bracket has been seeded seventh or worse. In four of those five years, the Cavaliers were seeded a No. 1 or 2 ... which is again the case this year. In two of these years (2015, 2016) UVA lost to the team that reached the Final Four. Will Virginia finally perform up to its seed? If not, which surprise team would you pick to come out of the South region?"

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ch-madness-bracket-facts-2019-ncaa-tournament

Perhaps that's why Seth picked Purdue to make the final four. TIC

 

[KisteK]

Top contenders on KP, bc.. wtf not?

Virginia
Duke
Gonzaga
UNC
UK

Lol none of you fools are picking UVA in your brackets

My Yahoo bracket would disagree.

Best of luck guys, and it wouldn't bother me to be wrong about
Tennessee, Sparty, Michigan

All solid teams.

 

[Tigerocker]

Can almost guarantee there won't be 3 #1 seeds in the end and maybe not any. Imo Duke has the easiest road out of the 4 #1 seeds.

 

[Big_Blue79]

1. Duke - best ceiling, and doesn't hurt that K owns Izzo (and MSU lacks depth) and LSU lost their coach. VT has a win over Duke, but w/out Zion. I'm full in the "Zion will own multiple NBA MVPs" camp. I have them in the Final Four in every bracket I've filled out. Based on the bracket and talent, I have Duke as a clear-cut favorite.
2. Gonzaga - I think they are the real deal (even if their resume is not), and they match up well with Duke. Their 2-4 seeds are all really good, but none of them pop (sorry, UM fans).
3. Virginia - the South region is packed with slow pace of play teams (UVA, Wisconsin, Villanova, etc...), which increases variability, and I like how UT matches up against UVA (experience plus shooting), but I still like UVA's chances.
4. UNC / UK - I can't pick between them. UNC is less upset prone, but UK matches up well for two reasons: Hagans can keep White in check, and UK can own the boards. But UNC's secondary break could lead to a lot of open threes against a UK team that still gives up too many open perimeter looks; can UNC hit them? Auburn could cause UNC problems with their pressure D (very high turnover forced rate) and three-point shooting if they're on, and UK still has some issues with perimeter defense (but can Houston/UNC take advantage?). Hard to see anyone else coming out of that region.
5. UT - I like how they match-up with UVA, even in a half-court game. Purdue is sort of a meh 3-seed, but again high variability (and UT lacks the D to really clamp down).

Honorable mention: Michigan. I just don't think they quite have the horses this year, but Beilein just gets it done in March.

This really seems like a year where the FF is nothing but #1 and #2 seeds; there is a clear delineation between the top 8 and the rest. I really want to like Texas Tech, but they struggled last year, Big 12 teams (sans KU) often crap the bed (I think they become overrated because the Big 12 inflates SOS due to lack of truly bad teams), and historically top 3 seeds that started the season unranked fall flat.

 

[sgrooms]

Can almost guarantee there won't be 3 #1 seeds in the end and maybe not any. Imo Duke has the easiest road out of the 4 #1 seeds.

As they should.

 

[CardHack]

1. Duke...though I pause with the reality that if we were capable of thumping them for 32 minutes of play with zero excuses (everybody was there for Duke and healthy...sans the Jimmy Dykes offered excuse of a "late flight arrival")...there are a lot better teams in the field with less flaws. They are dicey from the perimeter. I just don't think they will come across anyone until the Final Four capable of exploiting that.

2. UNC...has been playing great basketball for the better part of two months; their switch got flipped in mid-January and they are a bear to keep off the boards; that coupled with their transition game make them really difficult to handle.

3. UVa...you think you can speed them up; you think you can score on them; you think you can just deny a bunch of guys who look like frat boys from knocking down threes on the perimeter. They somehow turn a 30 second shotclock into the need to defend them for 40 seconds if you are a team that presses...then they knock down a three at the shotclock buzzer coming off a double screen. You might think you can do all that...but you have to prove it. You want to commit suicide rather than face another half of it when that first 20 minutes is gone.

4. Kentucky...a little eyebrow raising with PJ Washington who I truly feel is one of the five best players in the Tourney. His status after this weekend is obviously critical. But they can guard and they have players capable of breaking defenders down off the bounce in a late shotclock situation which is really a premium ability in Tourney play.

5. Michigan State...for no other reason than an overlooked Tom Izzo team; the dude is like Omar from the Wire. You haven't seen him in a while, but then he comes marching down the middle of the street with a shotgun and you better find cover.