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As of Today, Rank Your Top 5 Teams Most Likely to Win the Tourney

Look, if you people voting for UNC, PURDUE KANSAS hell put TEXAS in they beat all three yes I kn ow we lost some head scrachers LOL.:mad:.

I certainly wouldn't put UNC as likely to win the NCAAT at all. However, there is some logic to choosing them considering that Roy is simply consistently better than most when it comes to building a team up throughout the year to peak during March. It isn't like it is outlandish.
 
This is pretty homerish, but consider the source ;)

Just without looking at stats, I'd bet my left nut Duke hasn't shot like they did against UK one other time this year. 46 percent from three against the Cats, what are you guys the rest of the year? Just north of 30? Duke is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. People who want to use the November game as a reference for the next possible matchup have their heads buried in the sand.

Please continue to tell me how there is no possible way UK beats Duke if they play again. That's even bad for you.
Jimbo, Duke would suffocate UK defensively. Herro can't get shots off over Reddish's length and Zion would neutralize all of PJ's post moves.

UK doesn't guard the 3 point line well at all dude, there's a reason why opposing teams keep shooting well from distance against you guys.

Duke doesn't need to shoot well to beat UK. We've got 2 guys in RJ and Zion who can create their own shot at will and produce points. Kentucky doesn't really have an answer for them.

I think that 2012 UK team would've clobbered the Austin Rivers led team Duke trotted out that year. Some years you're not going to be as good as your rivals and peers, it happens.
 
Jimbo, Duke would suffocate UK defensively. Herro can't get shots off over Reddish's length and Zion would neutralize all of PJ's post moves.

UK doesn't guard the 3 point line well at all dude, there's a reason why opposing teams keep shooting well from distance against you guys.

Duke doesn't need to shoot well to beat UK. We've got 2 guys in RJ and Zion who can create their own shot at will and produce points. Kentucky doesn't really have an answer for them.

I think that 2012 UK team would've clobbered the Austin Rivers led team Duke trotted out that year. Some years you're not going to be as good as your rivals and peers, it happens.
Just stop. Duke would be a favorite and win most of the time. We can end it at that.
 
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Tre > Hagans.... certainly not on defense.
Reddish > Herro ....depends whose hitting shots that day
RJ >Keldon ... no argument from me
Zion >PJ.... ok
Bolden and Travis a wash? No. Bolden is a 'OAD' that didn't work out and calling him 'athletic' is a stretch.

The Cats have done a 180 since the first game of the year. The defense alone (now ranked in Top 10) is a stark difference from the beginning of the year.

UK's Shooting %'s have also improved quite a bit.

Path to victory? go heavy right at Zion, get him in foul trouble or just throw as many bodies at him as possible and wear him down. UK's defense at the other positions will make it a winnable game.
Tre and Ashton are both excellent defenders but Tre is a better floor general at this point. Neither are great offensive players. It's close to a wash I guess.

Reddish is an excellent defender and Herro would struggle to shoot over him much like last time.

Bolden was a OAD disappointment but he's flourishing now as a junior and playing good post defense. He'd give Travis fits who as BBN has seen, struggles with length and athleticism.

No one's really been able to wear down Zion by the way. If it was that easy, someone would've done it by now.

I think Duke would beat UK by 10-12 on a neutral floor most of the times.
 
Just stop. Duke would be a favorite and win most of the time. We can end it at that.
Pretty much what I've been saying, Duke would probably win 4-1 if that in a 7 game series.
 
Duke is a better defensive team than UK.

https://kenpom.com/index.php

UK would be lucky to win 1 game out of 5 games vs this Duke team due to the matchup problems.

Duke is essentially just a better version of UK if you compare the rosters.

Tre > Hagans
Reddish > Herro
RJ > Keldon
Zion > PJ
Bolden and Travis is a wash (Reid struggles against athletic bigs)

What's the realistic pathway to a UK victory here? I just don't see it.
Jesus man, where did you dig that post up from? November?

Seriously, you think RJ is better than Keldon, Tre is better than Hagans and Reddish is better than Herro???

I disagree, there are arguments that can be made for the opposite opinion.

However, Barrett (you didn't list him for some reason) and Zion are definitely more talented than Washington and Travis.

Sorry, but Boldon is not equal to Travis, I know he's improved and all, but no, he's got nothing on Travis.
 
Defense is what would make a drastic change in the rematch. Travis had 22 and 7, Keldon 23 and 4 and Herro 14 and 9. All that aside, we all know how awful UK played defense early in the season.... they're in the Top 8 in the country now, along with the fact that Hagans took over the PG position and it a candidate for National Defensive POY.
Add further that PJ Washington has made tremendous strides in his overall game as well.

If this rematch happens, a down to the wire finish is very realistic.
 
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Jesus man, where did you dig that post up from? November?

Seriously, you think RJ is better than Keldon, Tre is better than Hagans and Reddish is better than Herro???

I disagree, there are arguments that can be made for the opposite opinion.

However, Barrett (you didn't list him for some reason) and Zion are definitely more talented than Washington and Travis.

Sorry, but Boldon is not equal to Travis, I know he's improved and all, but no, he's got nothing on Travis.

RJ Barrett.

Reid is definitely better than Bolden. I could see an argument for Herro or Reddish.
 
RJ Barrett.

Reid is definitely better than Bolden. I could see an argument for Herro or Reddish.
I'm talking about matchups here. Bolden and to a lesser extent Reddish don't really do the heavy lifting on offense for Duke so they'd be tasked primarily with playing good defense and I don't see Herro being able to finish or pull up on Reddish with the massive length and athleticism advantage that Cam has.

Travis would struggle to score against the post whether he ends up on Zion or Bolden. Reid takes too much time to gather and set up his shot and both Zion/Bolden would be able to block or deter his shots with ease.
 
I'm talking about matchups here. Bolden and to a lesser extent Reddish don't really do the heavy lifting on offense for Duke so they'd be tasked primarily with playing good defense and I don't see Herro being able to finish or pull up on Reddish with the massive length and athleticism advantage that Cam has.

Travis would struggle to score against the post whether he ends up on Zion or Bolden. Reid takes too much time to gather and set up his shot and both Zion/Bolden would be able to block or deter his shots with ease.

If Travis 'would struggle to score'....how did he wind up with 22 in the first matchup?
 
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I'm talking about matchups here. Bolden and to a lesser extent Reddish don't really do the heavy lifting on offense for Duke so they'd be tasked primarily with playing good defense and I don't see Herro being able to finish or pull up on Reddish with the massive length and athleticism advantage that Cam has.

Travis would struggle to score against the post whether he ends up on Zion or Bolden. Reid takes too much time to gather and set up his shot and both Zion/Bolden would be able to block or deter his shots with ease.

Zion may could bang with him I guess. Reid would do well against either unless Duke brought help. I don't think UK's advantages are nearly enough to make an argument they are better but Duke doesn't an overwhelming advantage at every position.
 
Jesus man, where did you dig that post up from? November?

Seriously, you think RJ is better than Keldon, Tre is better than Hagans and Reddish is better than Herro???

I disagree, there are arguments that can be made for the opposite opinion.

However, Barrett (you didn't list him for some reason) and Zion are definitely more talented than Washington and Travis.

Sorry, but Boldon is not equal to Travis, I know he's improved and all, but no, he's got nothing on Travis.

If he didn’t list Barrett, who do you think he meant by RJ? Lol
 
If he didn’t list Barrett, who do you think he meant by RJ? Lol
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RJ Barrett.

Reid is definitely better than Bolden. I could see an argument for Herro or Reddish.

Herro has been miles better than Reddish this year. When Reddish is on he's a lot better than Herro, though. He just hasn't been able to adapt to being the third wheel. Going from star player to spot shooter has been some culture shock I bet.
 
Herro has been miles better than Reddish this year. When Reddish is on he's a lot better than Herro, though. He just hasn't been able to adapt to being the third wheel. Going from star player to spot shooter has been some culture shock I bet.
There's only 1 ball but Reddish has bought into his role and been a great teammate. His defense is great.

Herro has only been "miles better" in counting stats because he's asked to carry a greater offensive load for UK due to his role on the team.

If you're talking a 1 on 1 matchup, Reddish has the physical tools and defensive skillset to shut down Herro.
 
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Herro has been miles better than Reddish this year. When Reddish is on he's a lot better than Herro, though. He just hasn't been able to adapt to being the third wheel. Going from star player to spot shooter has been some culture shock I bet.
Just asking...But how has Herro been "miles better"? Their stats are similar. Reddish plays a different role than Herro. I like Tyler. But when his shot is off, he has zero impact on a game. Not the same with Reddish. Plus, matched up, I like Cam's ability defensively to slow down Herro, more than Herros ability to slow down Cam. Reddish is 3 inches taller, and weighs 20 more pounds.

I'd take Reddish. But now, if you give me a "hot" , on fire Herro---different story.
 
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There's only 1 ball but Reddish has bought into his role and been a great teammate. His defense is great.

Herro has only been "miles better" in counting stats because he's asked to carry a greater offensive load for UK due to his role on the team.

If you're talking a 1 on 1 matchup, Reddish has the physical tools and defensive skillset to shut down Herro.

Lol Reddish averages more shots a game than Herro does. Herro is more efficient everywhere, has a higher PER and his defense has been more than adequate this year too. Reddish averages almost 3 turnovers a game in a role where he rarely initiates anything. That's atrocious. FYI, Reddish has a higher USG% than Herro.

Just asking...But how has Herro been "miles better"? Their stats are similar. Reddish plays a different role than Herro. I like Tyler. But when his shot is off, he has zero impact on a game. Not the same with Reddish. Plus, matched up, I like Cam's ability defensively to slow down Herro, more than Herros ability to slow down Cam. Reddish is 3 inches taller, and weighs 20 more pounds.

I'd take Reddish. But now, if you give me a "hot" , on fire Herro---different story.

He's more efficient everywhere. Averages more assists/less turnovers Reddish. Has better advanced metrics everywhere. Herro has a higher rebound rate despite being much smaller. Reddish upside is MUCH higher than Herro. There's a reason he's a consensus top 5 pick while Herro is a fringe first round pick. But Herro is the better college player, or he has been so far.
 
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Lol Reddish averages more shots a game than Herro does. Herro is more efficient everywhere, has a higher PER and his defense has been more than adequate this year too. Reddish averages almost 3 turnovers a game in a role where he rarely initiates anything. That's atrocious. FYI, Reddish has a higher USG% than Herro.



He's more efficient everywhere. Averages more assists/less turnovers Reddish. Has better advanced metrics everywhere. Herro has a higher rebound rate despite being much smaller. Reddish upside is MUCH higher than Herro. There's a reason he's a consensus top 5 pick while Herro is a fringe first round pick. But Herro is the better college player, or he has been so far.
Reddish takes one more shot per game(11/10).

Like I said, a "on" Herro is hard to argue. But when his shot is off, he goes MIA. A guy like Cam, 6'8",long and athletic,is the kid of guy that can make that shot go MIA. Regardless of the stats, I'd feel comfortable taking Reddish in that match-up. To me, you have to look at what the other can do to hender the others game. In other words, I like Cams chances of "shutting down" Herro a lot better than Herro being able to shut down Cam. JMO. Bith are terrific.
 
It appears as though I have lofted you a softball to hit out of the park. Well done.
You finally scored one on ole KYJeff1.

Hail: 1
KYJeff: 653

Your sensor didn’t go off when you typed “you didn’t list Barrett for some reason”?
 
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I’d like to know who he actually thought “RJ” was when he posted that he isn’t better than Keldon.

Right? Like he automatically knew that Keldon was better despite not knowing who "RJ" was referring to. Biggest home on this forum.
 
Just asking...But how has Herro been "miles better"? Their stats are similar. Reddish plays a different role than Herro. I like Tyler. But when his shot is off, he has zero impact on a game. Not the same with Reddish. Plus, matched up, I like Cam's ability defensively to slow down Herro, more than Herros ability to slow down Cam. Reddish is 3 inches taller, and weighs 20 more pounds.

I'd take Reddish. But now, if you give me a "hot" , on fire Herro---different story.
This just might be the most uninformed post I’ve ever read. Hero is FAR from just a shooter. He’s money taking the ball to the hole and has a terrific mid-range game with his jump shot, floaters, etc. he can score in pretty much every way possible. I realize people that don’t watch all UK games think he’s just a white shooter, which couldn’t be more incorrect. He also rebounds well, is one of the best passers on the team, and plays very good defense now (it wasn’t great at the start of the season).
 
This just might be the most uninformed post I’ve ever read. Hero is FAR from just a shooter. He’s money taking the ball to the hole and has a terrific mid-range game with his jump shot, floaters, etc. he can score in pretty much every way possible. I realize people that don’t watch all UK games think he’s just a white shooter, which couldn’t be more incorrect. He also rebounds well, is one of the best passers on the team, and plays very good defense now (it wasn’t great at the start of the season).

...not to mention 91% from the FT line...
 
I think Duke would beat UK by 10-12 on a neutral floor most of the times.

If I'm looking at KenPom correctly (and I am), Duke should be favored by about 7 points on a neutral floor (adjusted a point or so for public perception, normally this is a wash b/c these are both public teams but add a point or so b/c of hype and earlier matchup). Duke would be a 12 point favorite over, say, Auburn/Texas Tech/Louisville.

Claim:
Herro has only been "miles better" in counting stats because he's asked to carry a greater offensive load for UK due to his role on the team.

Counterclaim:
FYI, Reddish has a higher USG% than Herro.

Facts:
Per BB Reference, "Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor." It's 26.7% to 21.7% in favor of Reddish, which means that Reddish uses a substantially higher percentage of Duke's plays than Herro does UK's plays.

Verdict:
RR30 in a route.
 
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This just might be the most uninformed post I’ve ever read. Hero is FAR from just a shooter. He’s money taking the ball to the hole and has a terrific mid-range game with his jump shot, floaters, etc. he can score in pretty much every way possible. I realize people that don’t watch all UK games think he’s just a white shooter, which couldn’t be more incorrect. He also rebounds well, is one of the best passers on the team, and plays very good defense now (it wasn’t great at the start of the season).

Pretty funny calling someone else uninformed when you can’t even properly spell your own player’s name.
 
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34 pts? Pfft. Lucky. We just had an off night.

Seriously, Duke is a bad matchup for everyone. They have possibly the highest ceiling of any team in the country and have been no worse than the 2nd best team in the country all season. Their only 2 losses are in OT without 2 starters and by 2 to a top 5 team playing above their heads for a game. I’d much rather they get knocked out before we’d have to play them again and I bet Cal would too.

We just don’t have the personnel to contain all 3 of Barrett, Reddish and Williamson when they got it going. No team in college does.
 
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Okay, but there are a lot of teams that have those combinations. Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee, Villanova etc.. I mean Purdue waswas even ranked until this week and UNC, while talented, has been handled by several teams, one of those teams was unranked, just lost to Pitt and smoked UNC in Chapel Hill.
It's just an odd list. I didn't expect Purdue to make anyones list.
And for UNC to make the list, but UT and UK to he left off is odd.
You make a good point about Purdue, I was shocked to see them make a list as well. However, they are playing very well right now. I think some forget also that they have played something like the 3rd toughest schedule in the country per Kenpom up to this point. Several games on the road vs ranked teams they could have beat and as of right now, sit tied for 1st place in a conference looking to get potentially 9-10 teams in the tournament.

No way did I expect this out of them this year. It's been a fun year to watch them grow. But you're right that there are a lot of teams that are more than capable to make it all the way.
 
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You make a good point about Purdue, I was shocked to see them make a list as well. However, they are playing very well right now. I think some forget also that they have played something like the 3rd toughest schedule in the country per Kenpom up to this point. Several games on the road vs ranked teams they could have beat and as of right now, sit tied for 1st place in a conference looking to get potentially 9-10 teams in the tournament.

No way did I expect this out of them this year. It's been a fun year to watch them grow. But you're right that there are a lot of teams that are more than capable to make it all the way.
Yep, this is a team that lost the most production in the country with four senior starters graduating. Purdue had a lot of guys thrown to the wolves early with a brutal schedule. They put forth maximum effort, but dropped some very close games on the road. The good news is that because of those trials, the team has improved and grown at an alarming rate, and they are playing so much better. This Purdue team reminds me of some of those past Beilein squads that just got better and better as the season went on.

Edit: Elite 8 is probably the ceiling. I am mot saying they will make the F4 like Belein did last year (unless we get a similar draw LOL).
 
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My UK choice isn't me being a homer, anyone that thinks UK doesn't have the necessary ingredients to win a title has an agenda.
UNC certainly has talent and a HOF coach, but they have underwhelmed all season. It's very odd that you would put them in your 5 over UK and UT, two teams that are beating really good teams, one of them pounded UNC on a neutral court.
As far as Purdue, they weren't in your top 5, but you did bring them up, they're in your top 7. Carson Edwards is awesome, but I just thought it was strange that they would make anyone's top 7.
Plus, Matt Painter has consistently underwhelmed with.much more talent than he has now.
As far as the "can't win until your program has been to a final four" stuff, you can't possibly believe that, or do you?
This is actually a misnomer. Painter has had teams that should have made the final four but in all 3 instances, a major player was injured and or key players were kicked off the team before the tournament. Painter has only lost to a lower seed in the tournament twice.
 
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