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2022-23 Pick'Em, Final Week! (Double-Points!!!)

Last year of BPI for me. I'm going back to making my own picks.

"I'd be fun," I thought. Last year I started out making my own then I started using BPI around conf season.
Thought if we do a whole year, we can see who here is better than ESPN's metrics.

The error in those metrics IMO is the results of a team are weighted evenly for the whole season. A good example of this was the matchup between Tennessee and Texas A&M last week.

Tennessee has been really high on the analytics all season long, but heading into the A&M game they had lost 4 of their last 6. A&M struggled in November and December (they were 7th in their preseason tournament in Myrtle Beach). But heading into the matchup with Tennessee, the Aggies had won 5 in a row - and they were 12-2 in SEC play. And they were at home. Yet of all 6 matchups, ESPN gave Tennessee the highest odds last week at 62.6%.
 
The error in those metrics IMO is the results of a team are weighted evenly for the whole season. A good example of this was the matchup between Tennessee and Texas A&M last week.

Tennessee has been really high on the analytics all season long, but heading into the A&M game they had lost 4 of their last 6. A&M struggled in November and December (they were 7th in their preseason tournament in Myrtle Beach). But heading into the matchup with Tennessee, the Aggies had won 5 in a row - and they were 12-2 in SEC play. And they were at home. Yet of all 6 matchups, ESPN gave Tennessee the highest odds last week at 62.6%.
I blame Dickie V for giving us the kiss of death. During the win against Texas he proclaimed Tennessee should be 2nd in the country. Team was crap for several games after that and some injuries didnt help.
 
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update from the battle at top of the charts:

WeAreDePaul = 254pts with possible 10 pts remaining (UNC, TCU, Bama, KU)
@ExitFlagger = 246 = 0 pts with possible 13 pts remaining (A&M, TCU, UNC, KU)
@rockycard = 246 with possible 13 pts remaining (UNC, OU, Bama, Texas)
@dukedevilz = 241 with possible 12 pts remaining (Texas, Bama, TCU, Duke)

WeAreDePaul's 5pts on Arizona proving to be the big move so far this week.
 
update from the battle at top of the charts:

WeAreDePaul = 254pts with possible 10 pts remaining (UNC, TCU, Bama, KU)
@ExitFlagger = 246 = 0 pts with possible 13 pts remaining (A&M, TCU, UNC, KU)
@rockycard = 246 with possible 13 pts remaining (UNC, OU, Bama, Texas)
@dukedevilz = 241 with possible 12 pts remaining (Texas, Bama, TCU, Duke)

WeAreDePaul's 5pts on Arizona proving to be the big move so far this week.
I might add that @mikeinknoxville also grabbed 5 pts and didnt lose as many as @WeAreDePaul on Providence.

Yes yes... it is understood that @mikeinknoxville isnt in the top 4.
 
I bet the house on another "blue blood" and now the wife will have to go out and scrub floors to pay for my losses.
 
If last week was rough for you, don't worry. Every felt it, too. Congrats to @Demarcus Kidd-Miller and @Kevin Bryan on winning the week with 11 points. Everyone else had single-digits. @WeAreDePaul and @mikeinknoxville actually had new weekly low this week, so they actually gained points back.

Three more weeks of Pick'Em. Everything going forward is going to be on a neutral court. Should be a fun finish.

Week 17 Scores
Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 11
Kevin Bryan- 11
mikeinknoxville- 9
Necessary Roughness- 9
PA_Panther- 9
ThePhog08- 8
coryfly- 8
rockycard- 8
GE Nole- 8
AWilli6995- 8
lurkeraspect84- 8
duckboy33- 7
dukedevilz- 6
ExitFlagger- 6
KisteK- 6
WeAreDePaul- 5
jhmossy- 5
IUfanBorden- 5

Cumulative Scores
@WeAreDePaul- 256
@ExitFlagger- 252
@rockycard- 251
dukedevilz- 247
@mikeinknoxville- 236
@ThePhog08- 229
@GE Nole- 229
@duckboy33- 228
@Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 227
@Necessary Roughness- 225
@jhmossy- 223
@lurkeraspect84- 223
@AWilli6995- 223
@IUfanBorden- 220
@PA_Panther- 201
@Kevin Bryan- 201
@coryfly- 187
@MGC_07- 186
@KisteK- 158
hailtoyourvictor- 116
Noahtogo24- 77
JimboBBN- 48
BasketBallJunkie-UK- 38

Week 18 Games
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)
 
Week 18 Scores
IUfanBorden- 15
Kevin Bryan- 10
coryfly- 10
WeAreDePaul- 8
Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 7
AWilli6995- 4
duckboy33- 2
boilerzz- 2
jhmossy- 1
ExitFlagger- 1
dukedevilz- 0
GE Nole- 0
lurkeraspect84- 0

Check out the scores from last year when we had the Pick'Em games during the conference tournaments. 7 of the 13 posters had 2 points or less lol. Let's have a repeat of that.
 
If last week was rough for you, don't worry. Every felt it, too. Congrats to @Demarcus Kidd-Miller and @Kevin Bryan on winning the week with 11 points. Everyone else had single-digits. @WeAreDePaul and @mikeinknoxville actually had new weekly low this week, so they actually gained points back.

Three more weeks of Pick'Em. Everything going forward is going to be on a neutral court. Should be a fun finish.

Week 17 Scores
Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 11
Kevin Bryan- 11
mikeinknoxville- 9
Necessary Roughness- 9
PA_Panther- 9
ThePhog08- 8
coryfly- 8
rockycard- 8
GE Nole- 8
AWilli6995- 8
lurkeraspect84- 8
duckboy33- 7
dukedevilz- 6
ExitFlagger- 6
KisteK- 6
WeAreDePaul- 5
jhmossy- 5
IUfanBorden- 5

Cumulative Scores
@WeAreDePaul- 256
@ExitFlagger- 252
@rockycard- 251
dukedevilz- 247
@mikeinknoxville- 236
@ThePhog08- 229
@GE Nole- 229
@duckboy33- 228
@Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 227
@Necessary Roughness- 225
@jhmossy- 223
@lurkeraspect84- 223
@AWilli6995- 223
@IUfanBorden- 220
@PA_Panther- 201
@Kevin Bryan- 201
@coryfly- 187
@MGC_07- 186
@KisteK- 158
hailtoyourvictor- 116
Noahtogo24- 77
JimboBBN- 48
BasketBallJunkie-UK- 38

Week 18 Games
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)
6 - MSST
5 - Kansas State
4 - arkansas
3 - Michigan
2 - OSU
1 - ISU
 
If last week was rough for you, don't worry. Every felt it, too. Congrats to @Demarcus Kidd-Miller and @Kevin Bryan on winning the week with 11 points. Everyone else had single-digits. @WeAreDePaul and @mikeinknoxville actually had new weekly low this week, so they actually gained points back.

Three more weeks of Pick'Em. Everything going forward is going to be on a neutral court. Should be a fun finish.

Week 17 Scores
Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 11
Kevin Bryan- 11
mikeinknoxville- 9
Necessary Roughness- 9
PA_Panther- 9
ThePhog08- 8
coryfly- 8
rockycard- 8
GE Nole- 8
AWilli6995- 8
lurkeraspect84- 8
duckboy33- 7
dukedevilz- 6
ExitFlagger- 6
KisteK- 6
WeAreDePaul- 5
jhmossy- 5
IUfanBorden- 5

Cumulative Scores
@WeAreDePaul- 256
@ExitFlagger- 252
@rockycard- 251
dukedevilz- 247
@mikeinknoxville- 236
@ThePhog08- 229
@GE Nole- 229
@duckboy33- 228
@Demarcus Kidd-Miller- 227
@Necessary Roughness- 225
@jhmossy- 223
@lurkeraspect84- 223
@AWilli6995- 223
@IUfanBorden- 220
@PA_Panther- 201
@Kevin Bryan- 201
@coryfly- 187
@MGC_07- 186
@KisteK- 158
hailtoyourvictor- 116
Noahtogo24- 77
JimboBBN- 48
BasketBallJunkie-UK- 38

Week 18 Games
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)
giphy.gif
 
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)

6 K-State
5 OSU
4 MSU
3 Michigan
2 Auburn
1 Baylor
 
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL

6- Arkansas
5- Miss St
4- Oklahoma St
3- Baylor
2- Michigan
1- TCU
 
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)

Baylor - 6
Mississippi State - 5
Kansas State - 4
Arkansas - 3
Oklahoma State - 2
Michigan - 1
 
The error in those metrics IMO is the results of a team are weighted evenly for the whole season. A good example of this was the matchup between Tennessee and Texas A&M last week.

Tennessee has been really high on the analytics all season long, but heading into the A&M game they had lost 4 of their last 6. A&M struggled in November and December (they were 7th in their preseason tournament in Myrtle Beach). But heading into the matchup with Tennessee, the Aggies had won 5 in a row - and they were 12-2 in SEC play. And they were at home. Yet of all 6 matchups, ESPN gave Tennessee the highest odds last week at 62.6%.

Maybe it would be better to use something like Bart Torvik and filter for the last 20 days on a rolling basis and take the higher ranked team (over the last 20 days) in each matchup? Except probably also need to factor home/away.
 
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL

Oklahoma State 6
Kansas State 5
Baylor 4
Auburn 3
Rutgers 2
Florida 1
 
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6: Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
5: Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
4: TCU (Kansas City, MO)
3: Auburn (Nashville, TN)
2: Mississippi State (Nashville, TN)
1: Michigan (Chicago, IL)
 
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)

6. Baylor
5. Auburn
4. TCU
3. OKST
2. Florida
1. Michigan
 
Week 18 Games
Wednesday: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Iowa State vs Baylor (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)

6- Baylor
5-Michigan
4- Mississippi State
3- Kansas State
2- Arkansas
1 - Oklahoma
 
Frrrrrrrrriccccck I missed it

I have 2 games I can do

Thursday: TCU vs Kansas State (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday: Arkansas vs Auburn (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Mississippi State vs Florida (Nashville, TN)
Thursday: Rutgers vs Michigan (Chicago, IL)

2 - Kansas state
1 - Arkansas
 
I royally screwed the pooch this week. Gonna free fall in the standings when they're posted.

I'll probably run the scores tomorrow. But, quick glance at the top 4...

ExitFlagger- 268
WeAreDePaul- 262
dukedevilz- 262
rockycard- 261

There will be bonus points for the 1st Round Tournament... and, of course, double-points in the Sweet 16. It's going to be close, that's for certain.
 
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