I disagree with this statement since its clear that Duke's recruiting which is the lifeblood of any program hasn't really fallen off at all. They're still getting blue chip recruits and there's no sign of that stopping.‘Cause it matters whether the program can sustain the same level of success after the one coach who won everything for the school has moved on. As a duke fan, do you believe Jon Scheyer has what it takes to win titles for Duke following Coach K’s retirement? If not, how confident are you that his successor(s) can? There’re quite a bit of uncertainty for Duke’s basketball program at this point, no one will know how the next 20-30 years will be like.
I actually think NIL will help the major blue bloods like Duke and Kentucky since if there's a clear roster opening due to an unexpected departure, the chance to get playing time at one of these programs who are on ESPN every night and the chance to earn major NIL money and exposure would be hard for the top transfers to ignore.
There's a good chance Duke is consensus preseason top 5 next year and they're in the hunt for some of the best OADs in future recruiting cycles like Boozer and Cooper Flagg.